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Balanceando la relacin entre la red y el modelo de negocio de los operadoresREPORTE

FEBRERO 2015

Con los mltiples cambios que ha sufrido el mercado de las telecomunicaciones en los ltimos 15 aos, parece claro que ha llegado la era de la precisin en el despliegue de la red y esto podra significar que la infraestructura se desarrolle teniendo ms en cuenta el modelo de negocio del operador y no que el modelo de negocio se adapte a la red, como viene sucediendo. Los usuarios cambian con mayor frecuencia sus hbitos en el consumo de los servicios de telecomunicaciones y, por lo tanto, su utilizacin de los activos de red. Para poder soportar esta flexibilidad, los operadores deben desarrollar redes elsticas a travs de nuevas formas de infraestructura, como las small cells, o la adicin de nuevas tecnologas como Wi-Fi, as como el uso de espectro con y sin licencia. A pesar de los cambios en el mercado, los operadores, en general, siguen desplegando sus redes desde el concepto macro, a pesar de contar datos que indican que el usuario accede la mayor parte del tiempo a los nuevos servicios de forma nmada y en interiores. Se estima que el 80 por ciento del trfico se produce en interiores.

Existen algunos ejemplos que podran empezar a dibujar un escenario diferente hacia el futuro. Por ejemplo, BT en el Reino Unido anunci, antes de su adquisicin de EE, que iniciara el despliegue de su red mvil empezando por el despliegue de small cells LTE, para utilizar las redes macro de los operadores existentes para apoyar en la cobertura. BT argumentaba, precisamente, que siendo el trfico ms intenso en interiores, su red deba empezar a desplegarse desde estos ambientes hacia fuera, y no de fuera hacia adentro como han hecho tradicionalmente los operadores adems el operador tena espectro en bandas elevadas.

No es casualidad que un operador fijo como BT pensara en lanzar una red mvil de forma radicalmente opuesta a como lo habra hecho un operador mvil, pues los operadores fijos ya han sufrido la prdida completa de los ingresos provenientes de los servicios de legado, como la voz, y su negocio pasa, en prcticamente su totalidad, por el acceso a datos. Podramos decir, pues, que su modelo de negocio ha empezado a tener ms peso a la hora de desarrollar su infraestructura. A veces las lecciones provienen de operadores que ni siquiera tienen una red propia, sino que simplemente adaptan su uso a su modelo de negocio. Este es el caso de los operadores virtuales (MVNOs). Algunos, especialmente en Estados Unidos, estn demostrando, al igual que BT, que existen otras formas de desarrollar una red de acceso.

Los MVNOs Scratch Wireless y Republic Wireless han lanzado su servicio ofreciendo como acceso principal los puntos de acceso Wi-Fi, siendo la red macro de los operadores tradicionales un apoyo para cuando el usuario no tiene acceso a esta tecnologa. El operador de cable Comcast en Estados Unidos anunci recientemente un servicio similar, pero en su caso obviando completamente el acceso a travs de redes mviles, y ofrece servicio mvil slo a travs de Wi-Fi.

LTE-Advanced y la 5G estn a la vuelta de la esquina y los operadores deben empezar a replantearse como desarrollan y mantienen sus redes de telecomunicaciones, teniendo ms en cuenta cul es su modelo de negocio, para que el desarrollo y mantenimiento de la red tambin lo tenga en cuenta. Pensar simplemente en velocidades y latencia de la red no puede ser el objetivo de la 5G, porque hasta la fecha, ni velocidades ni latencia en s mismas han podido ser monetizadas por los operadores, y slo podrn serlo si estn asociadas a aplicaciones que exploten estas caractersticas.

El reporte que sigue a continuacin presenta Primavera Enterprise Project Portfolio Management (EPPM) de Oracle, quien considera que este producto es clave para que los operadores puedan tener la flexibilidad necesaria para acometer los cambios que se producen en el mercado. Segn Oracle, la solucin Primavera EPPM permite alinear el negocio a travs de la transformacin, reduciendo el riesgo y el gasto en infraestructura (CAPEX) a la vez que se consiguen los objetivos en el menor tiempo posible.

2 www.telesemana.com

telesemana

Balanceando la relacin entre la red y el modelo de negocio de los operadores

Show your Network some Love Network Lifecycle Management

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Oracle Network Insights Series

2 | Oracle Insight Series

Time to get passionate about detail

A network upgrade is a gamble. How much will it cost? How many will subscribe? Where will they be? How much will they be willing to pay? Get it right, and the business picks up the winnings. But the capital costs mean the stakes are high.

With mobile and fixed-line networks, technologies are developing at a rapid pace. Competition is ferocious.

So avoiding the gamble is not an option, but you can get better odds with accurate forecasts, perfect planning and excellent execution. Show the network some love and it will prove valuable.

A report from EY, formerly Ernst & Young, says: In the coming years, operators expect to face a new wave of capex and regulation as they make the transition to all-IP networks.1

Operators can only decide where to invest if they have detailed plans revealing the cost of equipment, skills and subcontractor services. A breakdown of thousands of sites is necessary to determine where consumers and businesses will sign up, making the investment worthwhile, and where it is best to wait. This is why network lifecycle management is crucial, right from the off.

Data growth drives network investment

Network rollouts and upgrades could be some of the biggest capital projects operators embark on, and they are vital to future success.

For mobile operators the focus has been on rolling out 3G and 4G networks, while for fixed-line providers, its been the rollout of next-generation fibre.

Data demand is not just coming from consumers and businesses. The internet of things and machine-to-machine networks will also require new capacity. By January 2014 there were 428 mobile operators offering M2M capabilities in 187 countries, equivalent to 4 in 10 mobile operators worldwide, according to GSMA Intelligence2.

Clearly there is a competitive drive towards new network planning and rollout and a business need to see returns on these massive investments. Yet nearly two-thirds of the telecoms executives said capex planning is driven by technological considerations rather than business objectives, according to research by PWC3.

Executives deeply frustrated with capital project planning and execution

Following interviews with 22 telecoms executives from a representative cross-section of companies and regions, PWC found half complained that management structures lack sufficient accountability and incentives, while just under one-fifth said capital project proposals involved too much paperwork and too little insight.

Every network operator faces the unceasing challenges of delivering ever faster performance, introducing new services, providing greater access and improved reliability.

In 2012 EY found that 80 percent of operators said their #1 issue was capex demand due to data growth.

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The problem lies in the fact that customer numbers, revenues and profit forecasts come out of one part of the business, while estimates of technical costs come out of another, with little communication or understanding between the two, PWC found.

As a result more than half the respondents in the survey estimated that about 20 percent of their companys capex is spent on assets which do not recover their cost of capital.

Research from Analysys Mason also highlights concern over where to invest in networks. Between 2012 and 2017, fixed operators in developed economies are predicted to spend $53.5 billion on fibre network rollouts, the research firm said4. The report, covering Central and Eastern Europe, developed AsiaPacific, North America and Western Europe, predicts the amount operators spend, and the rate of progress in extending the availability of superfast and ultrafast broadband to end users will vary enormously, raising questions about appropriate and efficient use of capital.

Given the as yet untapped potential of copper over short distances, we wonder whether it is really sensible at this stage to take fibre right to peoples homes, said Rupert Wood, author of the report and lead analyst for Analysys Masons Fixed Networks research programme.

Once approved, a network capital project can be hideously complex. It is a massive change programme involving sub-contractors and suppliers as vital agents of success. It could involve thousands of sites across a country, each one having equipment changed. Technology such as 4G might require new sites, so operators need to select locations, acquire permits and negotiate contracts. All this must be co-ordinated in conjunction with the contractor providing the technical back-end. Timing and synchronisation of work are vital, because any delay is a delay to returns. Operators can only reap revenue when the project is finished.

According to EYs 2012 report, suppliers are becoming increasingly important in the rollout of new technology. Operators offer out 40 percent of design and planning to third parties, and for construction and integration the figure rises to around 60 percent.

The importance of the third-party expenditure on these services is shown in its rising share of operator capital expenditure, the EY report says.

In general, vendors become involved when the rollout or integration is especially complex or is being carried out on a very tight schedule, the report says.

[The telecoms sector] is spending lots of money on new infrastructure, but its not optimising returns. Most telecoms executives admit as much; they say the process of allocating and managing capital is both deeply flawed and deeply frustrating, the PCW report said.

20 percent of their companys capex is spent on assets which do not recover their cost of capital.

An increasingly common strategy among our survey respondents is to have network rollout and systems integration work carried out by vendors or contractors rather than in-house teams.

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Manage change more effectively

The involvement of third-party contractors and the complexity of network rollouts mean strategic control of these projects is critical to the overall success of the business. A lack of communication between commercial projections, project planning and execution or external teams can be fatal. Given the interdependences within a large scale project, a small hold-up to one element of the programme could cause a significant delay to the whole project, jeopardising millions in revenue.

Professional tools are essential to manage these risks and improve the chances of return on investment. Oracle Primavera Enterprise Project Portfolio Management provides a platform that enables people, resources, assets and external suppliers to work as one.

Better strategic decisions

With Primavera, detailed planning becomes more meaningful since nothing is left to chance. Nothing is vulnerable to random acts of inconsistency in reporting. It offers real-time updates and complete pan-project awareness of the mission-critical relationships between stages and teams.

It also provides systematic controls to ensure operational excellence. When a supplier achieves a milestone, all parties know its happened, because Primavera provides a single version of the truth. Operators no longer have to send teams around the country to validate the progress of the build phase; full visibility through executive level management dashboards verifies the actions in real-time.

And when the network is handed over to maintenance teams, the resulting enhanced productivity enables organisations to run leaner. The momentum is maintained. Real-time coordination and collaboration consign duplication, wasted effort and inaccurate or slow reporting to the past.

The prize is considerable. EY has estimated improvements in capital and operational management presents the opportunity of 40 percent savings to network operators5. Professional management tools like Primavera are worth the investment and have a significant impact on the bottom line.

Show Your Network Some Love.

References:

1 Future network operations http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Future_network_operations/$FILE/Future_network_operations.pdf

2 Mobile World Congress 2014 post-event report http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_-_Mobile_World_Congress_2014_post-event_report/$File/EY-mobile-world-congress-2014-post-event-report.pdf

3 We need to talk about Capex http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/communications/publications/assets/pwc_capex_final_21may12.pdf

4 FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 20122017 http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Press-releases1/FTTx-forecast-PR-Apr2012/

5 Optimize network OPEX and CAPEX while enhancing the quality of service http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_-_Optimize_network_OPEX_and_CAPEX_while_enhancing_the_quality_of_service/$FILE/EY-optimize-network-opex-and-capex.pdf

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Oracle is the leading worldwide provider of project portfolio management solutions for project-intensive industries. Our Primavera enterprise project portfolio management applications help organisations propose, prioritise, and select project investments and plan, manage, and control the most-complex projects and project portfolios.

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