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Basics ofDisaster Risk Assessment

Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for Local Partners

8 11 December 2012

Tagaytay City

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Scope/CoveragePart I: Disasters, Climate Change and

Development

Module 1. Interrelationship of Disasters,Climate Change and Development

Part II: Disaster Risk Management

Module 2. Hazard 101: Geologic HazardsModule 3. Hazard 102: Hydro-meteorologic

Hazards

Module 4. NDRRMC Policies/Plans. Framework

and Action Plan/s

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Part III: Climate Change and AdaptationModule 5. Basics of Climate Change andClimate Change Projections

Module 6. Policies/Plans. Strategies/frameworkand NCCAP

Part IV: Climate/Disaster RiskAssessment and MainstreamingTools

Module 7. Basics of Disaster Risk Assessment

Module 8. Climate Change Sectoral Vulnerabilityand Adaptation Assessment

Module 9. DRR/CCA Mainstreaming intoDevelopment Planning

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1. Introduction

2. Theoretical framework3. DRA: from theory to practice

4. DRR/DRM

Outline:

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Source: Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE

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Estimated Damage of Disasters(In M PhP @ 2000 Prices)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

19 70 19 71 19 72 19 73 19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83

19 8 4 19 8 5 19 8 6 19 8 7 19 8 8 19 89 19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7

19 9 8 19 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6

On the average, annual direct damage is P15 B

Pinatubo Eruption(1991)

15 disasters(1978)

Droughts(1984; 1987)

1.2% of GDP

0.9% of GDP

Luzon Earthquake(1990)

For typhoons, average of 0.5% of GDP every year

Source: NEDA

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No. of deaths, injuries and affected

persons, 1980-2006

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Deaths 5,220 17,249 8,555

Injured 19,315 15,166 6,201

Af fected ('000

persons)

13,713 68,911 42,543

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2006

Source: NEDA

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TheoreticalFramework

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Hazard is the potential to cause harm.

A threatening event, or the probability of occurrenceof a potentially damaging phenomenon, within a giventime period and area that may cause loss of life orinjury, property damage, social and economicdisruption or environmental degradation or a

combination of these. (NEDA Guideline)A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activityor condition that may cause loss of life, injury or otherhealth impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoodand services, social and economic disruption, orenvironmental damage. (PDRRM Act)

Hazard

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RiskRisk is the likelihood of an adverseeffect, direct or indirect, on human

health and welfare.As a technical term,risk shall be expressed as acombination of frequency (or probability), and theconsequence of a specific hazardous event. It should be

noted that in some literatures, the expression of riskincludes the severity of damage or adverse result thatcould be in terms of fatality, or injury, or cost of propertyloss per unit of time.

Risk is the combination of the probability of an eventand its negative consequences. (PDRRM Act)

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Vulnerability degree to which a system is susceptible to,or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability isa function of the character, magnitude and rate of climatechange and variation to which a system is exposed, itssensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. (CC Act)

Vulnerability characteristics and circumstances of acommunity, system or asset that make it susceptible to the

damaging effects of a hazard. Vulnerability may arise fromvarious physical, economic and environmental factors suchas poor design and construction of buildings, inadequateprotection of assets, lack of public information andawareness, limited official recognition of risks and

preparedness measures, and disregard for wiseenvironmental management. (PDRRM Act)

Vulnerability

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VulnerabilityVulnerability generally refers toconditions which define how elements

exposed to risk are affected by a hazard. Sectoral vulnerability

Physical vulnerability

Economic vulnerability

Social vulnerability

Environmental vulnerability

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Natural disaster when a natural hazardcayses serious disruption, causing human,

material, economic or environmental lossesthat exceed the ability to cope of thoseaffected.

A serious disruption of the functioning of a

community or a society involving widespreadhuman, material, economic or environmentallosses or impacts which exceed the ability ofthe affected community or society to cope

using its own resources. (CC Act/PDRRM Act)

Disaster

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Safety riskslow probability, high consequence, accidental, acute (humansafety focus)

Health riskshigh probability, low consequence, ongoing, chronic (humanhealth focus)

Ecological/environmental riskssubtle changes, complex interactions, long latency, macroimpacts (habitat/ecosystem focus)

Public welfare/goodwill risks

Financial risks

Disaster risks

Climate risks

Types of risks

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Target population

Individual RiskSocietal Risk

ControlVoluntary Risk

Involuntary Risk

Risk classification

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Effects

ChronicAcute

FrequencyAccidental

Routine

Risk classification

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Involuntary/Voluntary

Immediate/Delayed Direct/Indirect

Catastrophic/Random Control

Dread/Familiar

Factors affecting risk perception

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Conflict

Nuclear/chemical/biological weapons

Landmines/unexploded ordnance

Displacement

IndustryIndustrial accidents

Industrial wastes

Transport Oil spills

Agriculture and

unsustainable

resources

management

Overfishing

Overgrazing

Deforestation

Forest fires

Pest invasion

Desertification

Sea level rise/coastal erosion

Climatic

Droughts

Floods

Typhoons

Landslides

Geologic/

Tectonic

Tsunamis

Earthquakes

Volcanic eruptions

Man-made

Natural

Climatechange

Geographical

impacts

Local

Regional

Global

Timescale

Sudden

Slow/

continuous

Irreversible

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What can go wrong?How bad are the effects ifsomething does go wrong?How often do these incidentsoccur?

Risk Assessment

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Hazard CharacterizationHazard identification

Hazard inventory

Frequency Analysis

Probability of occurrence

Return period/frequency

Temporal probability

Time of occurrence

Vulnerability probability

Relative damage

Probability of injury/fatality

Risk Estimation/Calculation

Risk = consequence frequency

Consequence Analysis

Elements at risk

Property

Support infrastructures (e.g., roads)

Services

PeopleSpatial Vulnerability

Extent/scope of impact

Impact areas/zones

Development of OptionsAvoid / Accept Risk

Reduce likelihood (probability)

Reduce consequence

Risk EvaluationCompare to level of tolerability or

acceptable risk criteria

Implement, Monitor, Review and

Evaluate

RiskAnalysis

RiskAssessment

RiskManagement

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High Risk

Negligible risk

Unacceptable region

The ALARP or Tolerability

region

(Risk is undertaken only if

a benefit is desired)

Broadly acceptable region

(No need for detailed working to

demonstrate ALARP)

Risk cannot be justified

save in extraordinary

circumstances

Tolerable only if risk reduction isimpracticable or if it cost is grossly

disproportionate to the improvementgained

Tolerable if cost of reduction wouldexceed the improvement

Necessary to maintain assurance

that risk remains at this level

Risk Criteria/Acceptability

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TYPES OF HAZARD

Smoking (20 cigarettes per day)Drinking alcohol

Swimming

Playing rugby football

Owning firearms

Travelling by motor vehicle

Travelling by train

Travelling by aeroplane

Cancer from all causes

Air pollution from burning coal to generate electricity

Being at home

Accidental falls

Pedestrians struck by motor vehicles

Homicide

Accidental poisoning

Fires and accidental burnsElectrocution (non industrial)

Falling objects

Therapeutic use of drugs

Cataclysmic storms and storm floods

Lightning strikes

Meteorite strikes

RISK OF DEATH

(chance in a million per year)

5,000380

50

30

30

145

30

10

1,800

0.07 300

110

60

35

20

18

103

3

2

0.2

0.1

0.0010.03

0.19

Risk of Fatality for Various Activities

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Smoking 1.4 cigarettes

Spending 1 hour in a coal mine

Living 2 days in New York or Boston

Travelling 300 miles by car

Travelling 10 miles by bicycle

Flying 1000 miles by jet

Living 2 months in Denver on vacation from New York

Living 2 months with cigarette smokerOne chest x-ray taken in a good hospital

Eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter

Drinking 30 12-oz cans of diet soda

Risk of accident by living within 5 miles of nuclear reactor for 50

years

Cancer, heart disease

Black lung disease

Air pollution

Accident

Accident

Accident

Cancer caused by cosmic radiation

Cancer, heart diseaseCancer caused by radiation

Liver cancer caused by aflatoxin

Cancer caused by saccharin

Cancer caused by radiation

Activity/exposure Type of Risk

ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONE IN A MILLIONINCREMENTAL RISK OF DEATH IN A YEAR

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LSIR Fatality Risk Contour per Year,Combined Facility (Base Scenario)

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Societal Risks(all events;

USA)

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Societal Risk

Results

(Base

Scenario)

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From theory topractice

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x7.0 ML

Event Vulnerability

0

0.0005

0.001

0.0015

0.002

0.0025

0.003

0.0035

10 100 1000 10000 100000

Return Period considered (years)

Risk-AnnualDamagePercentage

Mean+1SDcummulativeriskMeancummulativeriskMean-1SDcummulativerisk

Casualties

Macro-Economic

Cost / Recovery

Indirect Loss

Direct Loss

Community Profiles

System Models

Geospatial DatabaseRecovery of

disrupted CI

asset function

(% over time)

Hazard

Models

Earthquake, Wind,

Tsunami, Flood,Blast, Plume, etc

CI damage

state estimates

Physical

Environment

affected

Injuries,

Fatalities,

Medical costs

Real GRP,

Consumption,

Employment,

Investment

Impact

footprintover time

Built

Environment

People

Buildings

Infrastructure

Age, Income,

Employment,

Activity, etc

Estimated

capital

stock losses

Business

resilience Estimatedproductivity

lossesDisruption induced

financial costs &

revenue lossesPopulation affected

Business

Residential

Estimated

losses

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Administrative Order No. 1(17 September 2010)

Directing the localgovernment units,

particularly provinces, toadopt and use in theirplanning activities theguidelines onmainstreaming disasterrisk reduction (DRR) insubnationaldevelopment and landuse/physical planning

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Hazard

RiskNatural Risk

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Natural Risk

Hazard

Risk

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Natural Risk

Hazard

Risk

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Hazard CharacterizationHazard identification

Hazard inventory

Frequency Analysis

Probability of occurrence

Return period/frequency

Temporal probability

Time of occurrence

Vulnerability probability

Relative damage

Probability of injury/fatality

Risk Estimation/Calculation

Risk = consequence frequency

Consequence Analysis

Elements at risk

Property

Support infrastructures (e.g., roads)

Services

PeopleSpatial Vulnerability

Extent/scope of impact

Impact areas/zones

Development of OptionsAvoid / Accept Risk

Reduce likelihood (probability)

Reduce consequence

Risk EvaluationCompare to level of tolerability or

acceptable risk criteria

Implement, Monitor, Review and

Evaluate

RiskAnalysis

RiskAssessment

RiskManagement

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HazardCharactization

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Flood Hazard Map (Sanaa, Yemen)

Source: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Studies in Yemen. WB-GFDRR.

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Source: Probabilistic seismic hazard map for Romania as a basis for a new building code. L. Ardeleanu et al. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5,679684, 2005 (European Geosciences Union)

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Source: NAMRIA

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Frequency Analysis

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FAULT TREEEXAMPLE

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Source: W. K. Kong. Risk Assessment of Slopes (Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology & Hydrogeology; August 2002; v. 35; no. 3; p. 213-222). GeologicalSociety of London. 2002

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Source: Powerpoint presentation. Study Mission to Geosciences Australia (November 2009)

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Basic Procedure

Determine potentially

affected population orproperty

Select/Assign potential Estimate fatality/damage

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High Risk

Negligible risk

Unacceptable region

The ALARP or Tolerability

region

(Risk is undertaken only if

a benefit is desired)

Broadly acceptable region

(No need for detailed working to

demonstrate ALARP)

Risk cannot be justified

save in extraordinary

circumstances

Tolerable only if risk reduction isimpracticable or if it cost is grossly

disproportionate to the improvementgained

Tolerable if cost of reduction wouldexceed the improvement

Necessary to maintain assurance

that risk remains at this level

Risk Criteria/Acceptability

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Risk PrioritizationRisk Level Description

Very high risk10-2

Extensive detailed investigation needed and implementation of

options essential to reduce risk to acceptable levels; may be too

expensive and not practicable.

High risk10-3

Detailed investigation, planning and implementation of options

required to reduce risk to acceptable levels.

Moderate risk10-4

Tolerable, provided plan is implemented to maintain or reduce

risks. May require investigation and planning of options.

Low risk10-5

Usually accepted. Treatment requirements and responsibility to

be defined to maintain or reduce risk.

Very low risk10-6

Acceptable. Manage by normal slope maintenance procedures.

Source: Adapted from Tonkin & Taylor Ltd., Natural Hazard Management Research Report

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Risk Prioritization

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DRA Steps

Earthquake &

related

hazards

Volcanic

hazardsFlood

Rainfall-

induced

landslide

Storm surge

Hazard

characterizationyes yes yes yes yes

Source of maps READY project(susceptibility

map)

REDAS

(scenario map)

READY project

(susceptibility

map)

PHIVOLCS maps

READY project

(susceptibility

map)

MGB maps

(1:50,000)

PAGASA

(1:10,000

selected areas

only)

READY project

(susceptibility

map)

MGB maps

(1:50,000)

READY project

(susceptibility

map)

NAMRIA (1:????)

Type ofcharacterization

Single event

hazard

Single event

hazard

Multiple event

hazard:

Frequent, Likely,

and Rare

Multiple event

hazard:

Frequent, Likely,

and Rare

Single event

hazard:

Frequent only

Parameters Spatial extent

Barangay/Area affected

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DRA StepsEarthquake &

related

hazards

Volcanic

hazardsFlood

Rainfall-induced

landslide

Storm surge

Frequency

analysis

no no yes yes yes

Trigger event --- --- Rainfall Rainfall Tropical cyclone

Type ofcharacterization

--- --- Multiple eventhazard:

Frequent, Likely,

and Rare

Multiple eventhazard:

Frequent, Likely,

and Rare

Single eventhazard:

Frequent only

Climate change no no Yes Yes ---

Unit of measure --- --- Events per year Events per year Events per year

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DRA Steps

Earthquake &

relatedhazards

Volcanic

hazards Flood

Rainfall-

inducedlandslide

Storm surge

Consequence

analysis

yes yes yes yes yes

Coverage Fatalities

Building and structures

Critical infrastructures and lifeline services

Agriculture, fishery and forestry (AFF)

Exposure data

(potentially

affected

element)

Fatality:

Base + boundary + density = population

exposure map

Population density by barangay (alternative

process: data point, e.g., CBMS, HH plot map)

Unit of measure = # of people

Building and structures:

Base + boundary + land use map = structure

exposure map

Floor area (alternative process: data point, e.g.,

CBMS, HH plot map)

Unit value (construction or building cost per floor

area)

Unit of measure = floor area + value

Critical infrastructures and lifeline services: Base + boundary + land use map =

infrastructure exposure map

Point (e.g., school, hospital) and line (e.g.,

roads) data

Construction cost per measure (e.g., length,

floor area)

Unit of measure = #/length + value

Agriculture, fishery and forestry:Base + boundary + land use map = AFF exposure

map

Land area (categorized by principal/dominant crop

+ forest area)

Re-planting, re-stocking or reforestation cost

Unit of measure = land area + value

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DRA StepsEarthquake &

related

hazards

Volcanic

hazardsFlood

Rainfall-induced

landslide

Storm surge

Risk estimation no no yes yes yes

Fatality --- --- Fatality per year

Property

damage

--- --- PhP per year:

1. Buildings and structures

2. Infrastructure

3. Crop and vegetation

4. Total damage

Risk

prioritization

no no Rating:

Urgent

Top priority

Low priority

Scoring based on criteria (fatality or value)

Composite score = sum of risk scores

Risk evaluation Comparison with other

hazards only

Vulnerability analysis as individual

Vulnerability analysis as community

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Ascertaining Risk Issues and Concerns

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Planning Considerations

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Test validity of key strategies

given the risks identified:

key settlements shall have

major urban functions and

roles dispersal of socio-

economic activities to

identified growth nodes

emergence of new cities &

urban areas

Provide extra incentives to

investments locating in

preferred areas for

agriculture, industrial and

tourism

Strengthen backward &forward linkages thru efficient

physical & economic access

between raw material source

& processing areas and

production & market access

Enhancing Planning Decisions

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Issues/Problems Goals Objectives Strategies Programs Projects

Low incomes,

lack of livelihood

opportunities

Increase

incomes/

livelihood

opportunities

Provide

employment to

xx families in

yy areas.

Encourage export

competitive industries

Export infrastructure

program

Port repair project

(to reduce handling

costs)

Regional highwayproject (to support

export market)

Skills training for

export productivity

program

Training for

productivity project

in yy areas

Provide microfinance Microfinance

program

Pilot micro-finance

project

High dropout rate

for elementary

school

Decrease

elementary

dropout rate

Improve

school

retention in yy

areas.

Improve physical

access to schools

Road to school

improvement program

Build/repair school

access road project

Classroom building

program in yy areas

Classroom constn

in yy areas

Provide subsidy for

poor students

Subsidized school

lunch program

Subsidized school

lunch project in yy

areas

Lack of affordable

housing Provideaffordablehousing

Provide

affordable

housing for xx

house-holds

Provide access to

new housing sites

New housing road

access program

Access road

construction project

Improve sites/

services in yy areas

CMP program in yy

areas

CMP project in yy

areas

Private sector-led

development of

affordable housing

Land titling and

admini-stration

program

Land titling project

in yy areas

Source: Table 22, page 111 of PDPFP Vol.2

Enhancing Planning Decisions

Issues/ Problems Goals Objectives Strategies Programs Projects

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Issues/ Problems Goals Objectives Strategies Programs Projects

Urban encroach-

ment into prime

agricultural lands

Mitigate

indiscriminate

land conversion;

protect selected

agricultural land

Prevent

unnecessary land

conversion in yy

areas

Encourage urban

expansion to

environment-tally

compatible areas

Urban expansion

road program

Access road

constn project

Review and

update land use

plans and zoning

Updated land use

plans and zoning

for yy areas

Improve agri

incomes to dis-

courage conversion

Agricultural

productivity

program

Agricultural

productivity

research project

Flooding Protect

communities in

flood prone areas

Protect xx

households in yy

areasProtect and

rehabilitate

watershed

Watershed

rehabilitation

program

Tree planting

project in yy areas

Production forest

project in yy areas

Provide protective

infrastructure

Flood control

program

Retention pond

and dike project

Relocate or

discourage

settlement in

flood-prone areas

Provide alternative

livelihood for

residents of flood-

prone areas

Alternative

livelihood program

for flood prone

communities

Port expansion

project (accommo-

date families in

flood prone areas)

Environmentaldegradation

Curb environ-mental

degradation

Significantlyreduce industrial

discharge into yy

areas

Implement existinganti-pollution

regulations

Bantay kalikasanprogram

Environmentpolice project in yy

areas

Legislation higher

pollution penalties

Encourage use of

environment friendly

technology

Green technology

program

Reduced tariffs on

green technology

equipment

Source: Table 23, page 112 of PDPFP Vol.2

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Actions can be grouped into six broad categories:

1. Prevention. Government administrative or regulatory actions or processes that influence

the way land and buildings are developed and built. Examples include planning and zoning,

building codes, capital improvement programs, open space preservation, and

storm water management regulations.

2. Property Protection. Actions that involve the modification of existing buildings or structures

to protect them from a hazard, or removal from the hazard area.

Examples include acquisition, elevation, relocation, structural retrofits, storm shutters,

and shatter-resistant glass.3. Public Education and Awareness. Actions to inform and educate citizens, elected officials,

and property owners about the hazards and potential ways to mitigate them. Such actions

include outreach projects, real estate disclosure, hazard information centers, and

school-age and adult education programs.

4. Natural Resource Protection. Actions that, in addition to minimizing hazard losses,

also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems. These actions include sediment

and erosion control, stream corridor restoration, watershed management, forest andvegetation management, and wetland restoration and preservation.

5. Emergency Services. Actions that protect people and property during and immediately

after a disaster or hazard event. Services include warning systems, emergency response

services, and protection of critical facilities.

6. Structural Projects. Actions that involve the construction of structures to reduce the

impact of a hazard. Such structures include dams, levees, floodwalls, seawalls, etc.

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and good day.

module 6_dra 1

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