mercado de la tilapia en ee.uu. - infopesca€¢ desde 1858 reportando el mercado de materias primas...
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Tilapia Market in the U.S.
Mercado de la Tilapia en EE.UU.
O mercado de tilápia em os EUA
¿Quiénes Somos?
• Desde 1858 reportando el mercado de materias primas
• Compañía más antigua de EE.UU. Reportando mercado
• Imprenta a lista de precios
¿Qué Hacemos?, y ¿Cómo?
• Sondeo de mercado • Analistas y Reporteros recolectando datos
cualitativos y cuantitativos • Referencia de precio • Información y transparencia • POR TAL BRINDA EFICIENCIA AL MERCADO
Indicadores Económicos, Producción
Economic Indicators, Production
Indicadores Econômicos, Produção
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
DP M
oney Income %
of Real DI per C
apita Tr
illio
n U
SD$ Disposable personal money income
Real disposable personal incomeDP Money Income % of Real DI per capita
Disposable Income & DP Money Income Source: ERS, USDOC
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Disposable Personal Money Income Per-CapitaReal Disposable Personal Income Per-Capita
Disposable Income & DP Money Income Source: ERS, USDOC
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Trill
ions
of
U.S
. Dol
lars
Food at homeFood away from home
Food Expenditures Source: ERS
Recession
Total: 1.3 Trillion
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
At Home Away from Home
At home and away from home, per capita Source: ERS, USDOC
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Civilian Unemployment Rate
Special Unemployment Rate: Unemployed and Discouraged Workers
Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons
Unemployment Source: BLS
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Empl
oym
ent (
1000
's)
Source: BLS.gov
Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries
'13
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
Food Service Manufacturing Retail2013 New Jobs: 227.700 10.000 164.500
New
Job
s 2013 New Jobs (Jan - July)
Source: St. Louis Fed
-8.000
-6.000
-4.000
-2.000
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Empl
oym
ent (
Thou
sand
s)
Total Jobs Added by Age Range Since 2005
16-54 55+
Source: St. Louis Fed
El Mercado de Tilapia
The Market, Tilapia
Mercado, Tilapia
14,0
14,5
15,0
15,5
16,0
16,5
17,0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius Catfish All Seafood
Consumption per capita Source: NFI, NMFS
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius All Seafood
Consumption per capita Source: NFI, NMFS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mile
s de
Ton
elad
as
Rest of the World
Ecuador
Colombia
Tanzania, United Rep. of
Kenya
Viet Nam
Taiwan Province of China
Nigeria
Mexico
Uganda
Bangladesh
Thailand
Brazil
Philippines
Indonesia
Egypt
China
Producción Mundial de Tilapia Source: FAO
80 123
164 222 229 253
332 292
371
125
125
134
103 109 97
90
87
78
43
50
51 58
58 54
52
54
55
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
lbs.
Fresh Fillets Frozen Whole Frozen Fillets
Tilapia Imports to the U.S. by Commodity Type (Total), All origins Source: USDOC
125 125
134
103 109
97 90 87
78
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
lbs.
Frozen Whole
Tilapia Imports to the U.S. Whole Fish-All origins Source: USDOC
54,06
51,40
45,88 45,50
50,20
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Million lbs.
Imports of Frozen Whole Fish YTD (Jan – Jul) Source: USDOC
China (mainland) 57,2%
China (Taiwan) 39,8%
Ecuador 0,2%
Panama 0,1% Thailand
1,1%
Malaysia 0,0%
Hong Kong 0,2%
Other 1,4%
YTD 2013
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
Mill
ion
lbs
2011 2012 2013 10-'12 avg.
Cyclical Behavior of Imports Source: USDOC
$-
$0,50
$1,00
$1,50
$2,00
$2,50
$3,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011 2012 2013
Avg. Retail Price, Whole Sale (Jan – Jul) Source: Urner Barry
43
50 51 58 58
54 52 54 55
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
lbs.
Fresh Fillets
Tilapia Imports, Fresh Fillets to the U.S. (Total), All origins Source: USDOC
Ecuador 32,4%
Honduras 31,9%
Costa Rica 21,3%
Colombia 6,2%
China (Taiwan) 2,2% Brazil
2,0% El Salvador
1,9% Other 2,0%
2008
2013
Honduras 26,9%
Costa Rica 25,0%
Ecuador 21,7%
Colombia 13,3%
Mexico 5,4%
Panama 2,8%
Other 4,9%
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
lbs
Adjusted '11 Adjusted '12 2013 '10 -''12 avg. 2008
Record year
Cyclical Monthly Imports, Fresh Fillets Source: USDOC
$3,50
$3,60
$3,70
$3,80
$3,90
$4,00
$4,10
$4,20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010 2011 2012 2013 '10-'12 avg
Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Fresh Fillets Source: Urner Barry
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
$3,50
$3,60
$3,70
$3,80
$3,90
$4,00
$4,10
$4,20
ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13
Mill
ones
AVG UB Quotations Volume
Linear behavior, pricing and other factors, Fresh Fillets Source: Urner Barry, CME, USDOC
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13
AVG UB Quotations % chg log
80
123
164
222 229 253
332
292
371
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
lbs.
Frozen Fillets
Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, All origins Source: USDOC
China 88,6%
Indonesia 8,2%
Taiwan 1,1% Thailand
0,9% Malaysia
0,0%
Other 1,1%
Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, By Origin Source: USDOC
114,1
134,1
165,6
146,5
210,0
171,5
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mill
ion
lbs.
Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, YTD Source: USDOC
$1,80
$1,95
$2,10
$2,25
$2,40
$2,55
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2013 2012 2011 '10-'12 avg
Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets Source: Urner Barry
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
$1,25
$1,50
$1,75
$2,00
$2,25
$2,50
$2,75
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million lbs.
$ pe
r lb
.
Volume *Import Value per lb. UB Pricing
*Total value reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (imports' value of tilapia frozen fillets) divided by total pounds.
Linear Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets Source: Urner Barry
$0,00
$1,00
$2,00
$3,00
$4,00
$5,00
$6,00
$7,00
$8,00
$9,00
$10,00
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Max Min Avg
Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry
$3,00
$4,00
$5,00
$6,00
$7,00
$8,00
$9,00
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Max Min Avg
Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
$0,00
$1,00
$2,00
$3,00
$4,00
$5,00
$6,00
$7,00
$8,00
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Avg Features
Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
$4,00
$4,50
$5,00
$5,50
$6,00
$6,50
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Avg Features
Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Avg Ret $ AVG imp/lb AVG UB fr/fz6 month Rolling Avg. Imp$/lb. 6 Month Rolling Avg UB (fr/fz)
Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb. Source: Urner Barry
Conclusiones
• Economía de EE.UU. y consumo en recuperación – Desempleo tiene que mejorar para levanter
expectativas – Apoyo de nuevas generaciones comiendo fuera
Conclusiones
• Importante entender las diferentes etapas y precios en los eslabones de distribución – Precio de reemplazo de inventarios (C&F, no FOB) – Precio FOB dentro de EE.UU. (Urner Barry) – Precio Retail (al consumidor) – Tienda de Autoservicio depende del costo de compra al
importador – El importador depende del precio de compra del productor – El productor depende de precios de materia prima para procesar – El precio de la materia prima
• Alimento • Clima • Energía
Conclusiones
• Consumo Per Capita de tilapia el más fuerte crecimiento de todas las especies
• Dividir las materias primas de tilapia – Filetes frescos – Filetes congelados – Pescado Entero
Conclusiones
• Precios de reemplazo de producto muy de la mano de los precios de Urner Barry – Sin embargo, dependiendo de la oferta:
• Precios de compra y oferta varían • Poder de comprador, poder de vendedor
