dr. arunachalam presentation

8/3/2019 Dr. Arunachalam Presentation

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Why Nuclear Electricity for India?

V S Arunachalam

Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy,

Bangalore, INDIA

&Department of Engineering & Public Policy

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, USA



Growth of India’s Power Sector

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d(Projected

• Serious Growth after 60’s• Generation 6th largest in world• Per capita consumption low• Close to 95% villages electrified

Ministry of Power, Government of India



The Status

Coal

67166

Gas

11840

Diesel

1196

Hydro

30135

Nuclear

2720Wind

2488• Installed Capacity > 120 GW

• Gross Generation: 620 billion kWh

• Per Capita Consumption ~ 600 kWh

• Coal dominant energy source (58%)

Ministry of Power, Government of India



India’s Future Growth

• India needs sustained economicgrowth > 8% to radicallyimprove its HDI

• Growth in last few years ~ 5%-7%

• Growth hampered byinfrastructure: electric power – Peak shortfall – Average shortfall

– High T&D Losses: – Unscheduled black-outs,especially in rural areas

– Supply to agriculture sector notmetered and almost free

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Center Total Economy Database, http://www.ggdc.net/.



Growth Areas

• Present growth is skills or resource driven(exports: software, gems and jewels, garment manufacture)

• Future Growth will have to be on value addition & engineering

• Rural sector to play a major role

(agricultural and dairy produce; minimizing wastage and improvingefficiency)

• Infrastructure building(roads, buildings, railroads etc.,)

• Manufacturing

The elasticity has to be greater than 1 for powering future growth



Elasticity and Electric Power Needs

• Target economic growth ~ 8%

• Elasticity of electricity with GDPstabilizing at ~ 1.2

• Implications for future electric power requirements by 2015:

– Capacity addition

– Investments

– Fuel mix

– Pricing and Policies – T&D reforms

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E l a s t i c i t y o f G e

n e r a t i o n v s G D P

Review of State Electricity Boards



Electric Power Requirements

G e n e r a t i o n ( b i l l i o n k W h )

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Required for 8% economic growth by 2015:

Installed Capacity 250 GW

Generation 1500 billion kWh

Per Ca ita Consum tion 1000 kWh

C a p a c i t y N e e d e d ( G W )

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The Task Ahead

• Need to add 135 GW in ten years

– 13,500 MW required per annum

– ~ One power plant per month

– China adds one per week !!

– Maximum added till now is

4,600 MW (One in four months)0

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a l C a p a c i t y A d d i t i o n ( M W

Annual added capacity

Total Capacity addition required



Fuel Supply: Options for Future

• Coal – Conventional – Gasification

• Natural Gas• Hydro• Nuclear

– PHWR + FB + AHWR – PLWR

• Wind – On-shore – Off-shore

• Biomass• Solar

– Photo voltaic – Concentrating Solar Power

Fuel Present In 2015Coal 67,166 MW ?

Gas 11,840 MW ?

Hydro 30,135 MW ?

Nuclear 2,720 MW ?Wind 2,488 MW ?

Biomass 1,000 MW ?

Solar - ?

TOTAL 115,035 MW 250,000 MW



King Coal !

• Reserves

– Proven 91 billion Tons

– Indicated 116 billion Tons

– Inferred 37 billion Tons

– TOTAL 245 billion Tons

• Coal reserves:> 250 years at present

levels of consumption

• Concentrated in Eastern India

Madhya

Pradesh7%

Others

13%

Jharkhand

29%

Chattisgarh

16%

West Bengal

11%

Orissa

24%



Indian Coal Quality

• High ash: 25%-45%

• Low sulfur < 0.5%

• Low energy content

• CO2 emissions > 1 kg per kWh

•Issues with coal: – Ash disposal: annual ash

generation > 90 million tons

– CO2 emissions

Heating Value(BTU/lb)

Ash Content(%)

Sulfur

(%)

Illinois # 6 10,900 11.00 3.25

Wyodak 11,960 5.97 0.40

WPC Utah 11,240 5.32 0.61

Indian Coal 6,500 25-45 <0.5



Coal: Future Scenarios

• Projections of coal demand (2015):

– High growth : 580 MT

– BAU scenario : 380 MT

– Domestic production will not be

enough. Imports needed

• Issues:

– Ash generation > 200 million Tons

– CO2 emissions > 850 Million Tons

– Particulate and NOx emissions

(presently not regulated)

– Coal transportation bottleneck: Rail

transportation stagnation

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Coal Transport by Railways

Business as Usual

Ac ce lerat ed gro wth sc enario



India’s CO2 Emissions

• India’s fossil based CO2 emissions in 2003: – Coal 666 MMT – Petroleum 305 MMT – Natural Gas53 MMT

• India’s CO2

emissions rapidly growing

– Trebled during 1981-2001

• India and China presently not subject tomandatory cuts in CO2

– However future may not be so

0%

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

S h a r e o f G l o b a l C O 2 E m i s s i o n s ( % )

US

We stern Euro

Chin

India

EIA, US Department of Energy

India China Total

1980 1.64% 7.83% 9.47%

2003 5.60% 19.34% 24.93%

Share of global emissions



Options with Coal

• Coal’s dominance will undoubtedly continue. – Availability

– Cheap

• The question is: How much do we want to add with coal given the constraints of

quality, transportation, carbon emissions and environmental issues.

Installed Capacityof Coal (GW)

Coal Required(Million MT)

CO2 Emissions

(Million MT)

Upper Case Coal stillcontributes 60% of capacity

~ 150 GW 580 MMT 850 MMT

Lower Case Aggressivedeployment of nuclear and naturalgas technologies

~ 120 GW 470 MMT 690 MMT

Coal scenarios for high economic growth ~ 8%



Hydro-Electricity

• Inferred potential > 120 GW

• Installed capacity 30 GW

• Most big projects are in North-Eastern states of Arunachal

Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and

J&K

• Problems of rehabilitation andresettlement with large projects

• Environmental issues

• Water sharing agreements withneighbors

National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India



Hydro-Electric Potential

State Capacity(MW)

Dulhasti J&K 390

Dhauliganga Stage - I * Uttaranchal 140

Teesta Stage V Sikkim 510

Loktak Downstream Manipur 90

Parbati-II Himachal Pradesh 800

Sewa-II J&K 120

Subansiri Lower Arunachal Pradesh 2000

Teesta Lower Dam-III West Bengal 132

Omkareshwar Madhya Pradesh 520

TOTAL 4702

Details of projects under construction

Projects awaitingclearance andgovernment approval

2,570 MW

Projects at DPR andinfrastructuredevelopment stage

11,620 MW

Projects under surveyand investigation

11,000 MW

Ongoing and Planned Projects

Possible to add 10,000 MW by 2015

http://www.nhpcindia.com/english/dul.htm


http://www.nhpcindia.com/english/dhauli.htm






Natural Gas

• Fastest growing primary fuel, worldwide• Indian statistics (2004-05):

Consumption: > 31 BCM/year

Primary uses:

Power 41%

Fertilizer 32%

Sponge Iron 4%

Other 23%

Growing needs for transportation (and some cooking)

Latent demand estimated as high as 80 BCM (depends on price, of course)

CENTGASTurkmenistan



Natural Gas

Pipelines

Indore

- onwardsto India

TAPS

TAPS(across water)

CENTGAS

- to Pakistan

Indore

Baroda333333333

KarachiGwadar

222222222

444444444

Gas supplyConsumptioncenter

New Delhi

Multan

1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar 1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar

111111111

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Iran

Turkmenistan

Qatar India

Oman

Gas Authority of India Limited

India’s Gas Pipelines

Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)



Imports of Gas

• LNG growing (5+ million tons/annum), but pricesremain high – 1 ton LNG can power ~ 1 GW of power

– 1 BCM gas ~ .8 GW of power

thus, 20 BCM ~ 16,000 MW of gas power

• Initial imports won’t necessarily add to elec. capacity

– Will substitute naphtha in power plants and find other usesas well• More than half the fertilizer feedstock is gas

• Industry has already claimed the bulk of current LNG supplies



Biomass

• India predominantly agriculturalcountry.

• Annual production of agro-forest and

processing residues: 350 million tons

• Power generation potential > 22,000

MW• Advantages:

– Decentralized generation: close to rural

load centers.

– Technology reasonably well developed

– Environmentally friendly: No net CO2 emissions

Feedstock Examples Potential Installed

Agro-forestresidues

Wood chips,mulberry,

coconut shells

17,000 MW 50 MW

Processingresidues

Rice husk,sugarcane

bagasse

5,000 MW 1000 MW



Biomass Conversion Technologies

• Gasifier-reciprocating engine – Power plants of 5 kW – 100 kW possible

– Diesel engine needs ~ 15%-20% for ignition

• Cost of electricity is high

– Gas engine can operate on 100% syngas

– Overall efficiency ~ 20%

– Largest gasifier 100 kW

• Fluidized bed combustion boilers

– Rice husk and bagasse

– 25%-30%

– Power plants of 5 MW – 35 MW operating invarious sugar mills

– Producing electricity is sweeter than sugar !!

50 kW biomass gasifier power plant in Karnataka



Biomass for Decentralized Rural

Power

• Electric power requirement of typical Indian village < 100 kW – ~ 75% is irrigation pumps

– Presently these get virtually free, un-metered grid supply of poor quality, few hours

a day

• Locally available biomass can sustain a plant of 25 kW-100 kW

– Gasifier-reciprocating engine technology is fairly robust

• Cost of generation reasonable

– $ 0.06-0.07 per kWh

• BUT, still widespread dissemination not visible:

– Economics unviable due to low PLF

– People not willing to pay when state gives free !

– Loss of organic fertilizer on land

• Good potential from bagasse and husk:

– Can expect to add 3000 MW by 2015.



Wind Energy

• Gross potential : 45,000 MW(assuming 1% land availability in potential areas)

• Technical potential : 13,000 MW(assuming 20% grid penetration in potential areas)

• Rapid growth in installed capacityfrom 1990s

• India ranks 5th in the world – Present installed capacity ~ 3000

MW

• Site selection issues:

– More from fiscal benefits than from power – Many plants not operating – Low average load factor~13%

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Global Wind Energy Council

World Wind Installed Capacity (2005)



Wind Speed Maps of Selected

Countries

Denmark

In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2)

in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2)

and US US



Off-shore Wind in Europe

• Europe and US have taken up several off-shore projects.

• Wind speeds higher

• Distance from shore in some cases ~ 30 – 40 km !

Country Capacity Depth (m) Distance fromShore (km)

Remarks

Denmark 160 MW 6 – 12 m 14 – 20 km Completed

UK 60 MW 4 – 8 m 2.3 km Completed

Denmark 23 MW 20 m 3.5 km Completed

Denmark 5 MW 3 – 5 m 6 km Completed

Sweden 10 MW 6 – 10 m 5 km Completed

Germany 1040 MW 30 m 43 – 50 km Planned

Netherlands 120 MW 20 – 24 m 23 km Planned

Germany 240 MW 20 m 34 km Planned

Ireland 520 MW 2 – 5 m 10 km Partly complete



India: Off Shore Wind Scenario

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Nuclear Power: The Present Status

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Indian Nuclear Program: The Present

Status

• 12 PHWR & 2 BWR now under operation• 4 PHWR and 2 LWR under commission• 2950 MW generation & 3000 MW under

commission

• Successful experiments with Fast Breeder TestReactor (FBTR)

• Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for 500MWe under construction

• Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) using(Pu-Th) O2 MOX for 300MWe: advanced stage of design approval; construction soon to begin.



Indian Nuclear Program: The

Constraints

• Uranium ore reserves for only 10,000MWe for 40

years

• Non-signatory to NPT: no access to globaltechnologies, materials or services

• Slow growth of nuclear electric power: ~1000

MWe annually

• Major dependence on Pu and U233 MOX for fuel

• Complex fuel technologies. Total capacity limited



Why Cooperate?

• India needs electric power now, more thanever, for human development and growth

• It must generate power from all energy

sources• Excessive and continued dependence on

coal contributes to environmental

degradation & global warming• Limitations of renewable energy sources



Why Cooperate?

• Politics of Non-Proliferation: Power &Responsibility

• R&D: cooperation and Collaboration

• Bilateral trade & economic issues

• Sharing global energy resources

• Environmental concerns

• Shared vision: secular, democratic &

caring society



Why Cooperate?

Climate change is a greater threat to

humanity than terrorism, and no lessurgent.

--- David King, Science Advisor to Prime

Minister of UK



An Action Plan

Until Nuclear Fusion and Hydrogentechnologies mature

• Minimizing wastage; energy conservation;

Development of Energy Plan• Installation of nuclear power ( 34GW in 10

years)

• Investments in R&D to make renewabletechnologies efficient, sustainable&affordable



An Action Plan

• Strict enforcement of export controls of technologies, equipment and services

• Nuclear power reactors under international

safeguards• Collaboration in developing technologies

for utilizing MOX fuels for electric power

generation• Participation in Gen. 4 R&D initiatives



Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015

Coal

60.44%Gas

14.49%

Diesel

0.48%

Nuclear

5.06%

Hydro

15.96%

Solar thermal

0.40%

Biomass

1.19%Wind

1.99%

Gas

14.49%

Diesel

0.48%

Nuclear

14.60%

Hydro

15.96%

Solar thermal

0.40%

Biomass

1.19%Wind

1.99%

Coal

50.90%

Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition

• Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons

• Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons•

~ Total present CO2 emissions of Netherlands !

P i ti



Primary energy consumption per

capita



What If ….India & China Were “Developed”by 2013?

• Expected Carbon Emission:

14,400 Million Tons (2.5 times

present global emissions !!)

• CO2 concentration > 400 ppm

• Temperature rise > 0.5 C0

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OECD India China Others

20022013

Global Carbon Emissions (Million Tons per Year)

US > 14,000

India 600

China 1300

Present Electricity Per Capita (kWh)

Target: 14,000 kWh by 2013

(Calculations Based on Data in Climate Change 2001, IPCC)

Wh If



What If

India & China Guzzle Oil?

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M i l l i o n B a r r e l s p e r D a y

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Global Oil Consumption (Million Barrels per Day)

US > 750

India 4

China 8

Present Number of Cars per 1000

• World Oil Consumption: 387

Million Barrels a Day• At Present 77 Million Barrels a Day

• Oil reserves deplete in 8 years !!• At Present 42 years

Target: 250 Cars per 1000



I saw God In the smile of the poor Mahatma Gandhi



The cost of Power

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Residential Tariff

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dr. arunachalam presentation

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