calculo poblacion_san josé

7/26/2019 Calculo Poblacion_San Jos

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CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL

DISTRITO DE

SAN JOSE

1.0 METODO ARITMETICO

CENSO POBLACION

(Ao) (Habitantes)

1,981 8,372

1,993 9,958

2,005 11,504

2,007 11,414

Ecuacin : Pf = Po ( 1 + r t )

Combinaciones con dos censos :

1,981 1,993 === > r = 1.58 %

1,981 2,005 === > r = 1.56 %

1,981 2,007 === > r = 1.40 %

1,993 2,005 === > r = 1.29 %

1,993 2,007 === > r = 1.04 %

2,005 2,007 === > r = -0.39 %

Combinaciones de tres censos :

1,981 1,993 2,005 === > r1 = 1.44 %

1,981 1,993 2,007 === > r2 = 1.29 %

1,981 2,005 2,007 === > r3 = 1.41 %

1,993 2,005 2,007 === > r4 = 1.05 %

Combinacin con cuatro censos :

1,981 1,993 2,005 2,007 === > r5 = 1.30 %

Comportamiento histrico de las ecuaciones :

Curva Tasa 1,981 1,993 2,005 2,007 Sumatoria Diferencia

Censo 8,372 9,958 11,504 11,414 41,248 ---

1 1.44% 8,310 9,503 11,095 11,414 40,322 926

2 1.29% 8,545 9,666 11,126 11,414 40,751 497

3 1.41% 8,354 9,533 11,101 11,414 40,402 846

4 1.05% 8,960 9,947 11,178 11,414 41,499 251

5 1.30% 8,537 9,661 11,125 11,414 40,737 511

Curva seleccionada: Po = 11,414 habitantes

r = 1.05%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1,970 1,980 1,990 2,000 2,010

PO

BLACION

(Hab)

TIEMPO (Aos)

METODO ARITMETICO

Censo 1 2 3 4 5

.


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2.0. METODO GEOMETRICO

CENSO POBLACION

(Ao) (Habitantes)

1,981 8,372

1,993 9,958

2,005 11,504

2,007 11,414

Ecuacin : Pf = Po ( 1 + r )t

Combinaciones con dos censos :

1,981 1,993 === > r = 1.46%

1,981 2,005 === > r = 1.33%

1,981 2,007 === > r = 1.20%

1,993 2,005 === > r = 1.21%

1,993 2,007 === > r = 0.98%

2,005 2,007 === > r = -0.39%

Combinaciones con tres censos :

1,981 1,993 2,005 === > r1 = 1.33%

1,981 1,993 2,007 === > r2 = 1.18%

1,981 2,005 2,007 === > r3 = 1.21%

1,993 2,005 2,007 === > r4 = 1.03%

Combinacin con cuatro censos :

1,981 1,993 2,005 2,007 === > r5 = 1.21%


Tasa de

Curva Crecimiento 1,981 1,993 2,005 2,007 Sumatoria Diferencia

Censo 8,372 9,958 11,504 11,414 41,248 ---

1 1.33% 8,101 9,490 11,117 11,414 40,122 1,126

2 1.18% 8,421 9,690 11,150 11,414 40,675 573

3 1.21% 8,342 9,641 11,142 11,414 40,539 709

4 1.03% 8,744 9,889 11,182 11,414 41,229 19

5 1.21% 8,352 9,647 11,143 11,414 40,556 692

Curva seleccionada: Po = 11,414 habitantes

r = 1.21%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1,975 1,980 1,985 1,990 1,995 2,000 2,005 2,010

POBLACION

(Hab)

TIEMPO (Aos)

METODO GEOMETRICO

Censo 1 2 3 4 5


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3.0. METODO PARABOLICO

CENSO POBLACION

(Ao) (Habitantes)

1981 8372

1993 9958

2005 11504

2007 11414

Ecuacin : Pf = A + B . t + C . t2

Combinaciones con tres censos :

1981 1993 2005 === > A1 = 11,414.00

B1 = 126.61

C1 = -0.14

1981 1993 2007 === > A2 = 11,414.00

B2 = 88.83

C2 = -1.08

1981 2005 2007 === > A3 = 11,414.00

B3 = -58.50

C3 = -6.75

1993 2005 2007 === > A4 = 11,414.00

B4 = -69.83

C4 = -12.42

Mnimos cuadrados :

1981 1993 2005 2007 === > A5 = 11,414.00

B5 = 76.91

C5 = -1.57


Curva 1,981 1,993 2,005 2,007 Sumator. Diferenc.

Censo 8,372 9,958 11,504 11,414 41,248 ---

1 8,028 9,614 11,160 11,414 40,216 1,032

2 8,372 9,958 11,232 11,414 40,976 272

3 8,372 10,910 11,504 11,414 42,200 952

4 4,836 9,958 11,504 11,414 37,712 3,536

5 8,352 10,029 11,253 11,414 41,048 200

Curva seleccionada: A = 11,414.00

B = 76.91

C = -1.57

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1,970 1,975 1,980 1,985 1,990 1,995 2,000 2,005 2,010

POBLACION

(Hab)

TIEMPO (Aos)

METODO PARABOLICO

Censo 1 2 3 4 5


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4.0. CURVA EXPONENCIAL MODIFICADA

CENSO POBLACION

(Ao) (Habitantes)

1,981 8,372

1,993 9,958

2,005 11,504

2,007 11,414

Ecuacin : Pf = A + B .t

Mnimos cuadrados :

1,981 1,993 2,005 2,007 === > A5 = 11,591.60

B5 = 121.87

5.0 SELECCION DEL MODELO DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL

Clculo de la poblacin futura tomando como referencia el crecimiento vegetativo

del Pais:

Tasa de crecimento de la ciudad = -0.39% actual

N Ao Censo Arimtico Exponen. Curva

Modifi. Elegida

1981 8,372

1993 9,958

2005 11,504

- 2,007 11,414 11,414 11,414 11,414 11,414 11,414

Base 2,008 11,369 11,534 11,551 11,489 11,713 11,551

A 2,009 11,324 11,654 11,691 11,561 11,835 11,691

0 2,010 11,280 11,774 11,832 11,630 11,957 11,832

1 2,011 11,236 11,894 11,975 11,696 12,079 11,975

2 2,012 11,192 12,014 12,120 11,759 12,200 12,120

3 2,013 11,148 12,135 12,267 11,818 12,322 12,267

4 2,014 11,104 12,255 12,415 11,875 12,444 12,415

5 2,015 11,060 12,375 12,565 11,928 12,566 12,565

6 2,016 11,017 12,495 12,717 11,979 12,688 12,717

7 2,017 10,974 12,615 12,870 12,026 12,810 12,870

8 2,018 10,931 12,736 13,026 12,070 12,932 13,026

9 2,019 10,888 12,856 13,183 12,110 13,054 13,183

10 2,020 10,845 12,976 13,343 12,148 13,175 13,343

11 2,021 10,803 13,096 13,504 12,182 13,297 13,504

12 2,022 10,761 13,216 13,667 12,214 13,419 13,667

13 2,023 10,718 13,337 13,832 12,242 13,541 13,832

14 2,024 10,676 13,457 13,999 12,267 13,663 13,999

15 2,025 10,635 13,577 14,169 12,289 13,785 14,169

16 2,026 10,593 13,697 14,340 12,308 13,907 14,340

17 2,027 10,551 13,817 14,513 12,324 14,028 14,513

18 2,028 10,510 13,938 14,688 12,336 14,150 14,688

19 2,029 10,469 14,058 14,866 12,345 14,272 14,866

20 2,030 10,428 14,178 15,046 12,352 14,394 15,046

METODO GEOMETRICO

Tasa de crecimiento seleccionada: 1.2% Considerando los 4 censos ltimos

ParablicoGeomtrico

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1,970 1,980 1,990 2,000 2,010 2,020 2,030 2,040

POBLACION

(Hab)

TIEMPO (Aos)

CURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONALDEL DISTRITO DE SAN JOSE

Censo

Arimtico

Geomtrico

Parablico

Exponen.Modifi.

calculo poblacion_san josé

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