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17 September, 2015
DBS Group Research . Equity
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Model PortfolioRefer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Singapore Portfolio Changes
1. Add OCBC to Balanced and Blue Chips portfolio
2. Remove City Developments from Blue Chips portfolio
Portfolio Performance Review
The Straits Times Index is lower by 13.1% since the Model Portfolio inception on August 14 2014. Our overall Singapore model portfolio by market
capitalization outperformed the STI by 7.3%. *all prices are taken with ref. to 16 September 2015 closing
2
4
6
8
Singapore - Portfolio Performance vs ST Index
Outperform
%
1
Source for all data: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
sa: YM
Yeo Kee Yan (65) 6682 3706 [email protected]
Ling Lee Keng (65) 6682 3703 [email protected]
Conservative
The portfolio's market capitalization outperformed th STI by 14.1%. Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, which was included since portfolio
inception, continues to deliver positive performance of 8.8%. This is followed by Frasers Commercial Trust. There is no new inclusion.
-4
-2
0
Underperform
P rice Target Div
(S ) Price upside P/E (x ) Yld (%)
( ) (%) FY15F FY15F FY16F FY14
Conservative
Mapletree Greater China CommercialTrust
0.93 1.12 20.5 8.8 16.7 22.4 3.3 7.0
Frasers Commercial Trust 1.31 1.51 14.9 0.2 15.5 (5.0) 3.4 6.5
ST Engineering 2.96 3.40 14.9 (8.2) 17.4 (0.1) 0.9 5.1
Company EPS Growth (%)
gain
/(loss)
% incl
di v
1
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Model Portfolio
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Balanced
The portfolio's market capitalization outperformed the STI by 17.4%, the best performing perfolio. Yangzijiang performed best with its inclusion
into the STI fueling the latest rebound despite market volatility. Our decision to remove OCBC on 6 August was the right decision as the stock
price fell 12.7% since. With the correction, we add OCBC back again.
# addition
Growth
The portfolio's market capitalization underperformed the STI by 28.6%. Ezion remains the main drag while Interplex managed a slight gain
despite recent market volatility. We maintain our picks in this category.
Blue Chips
The portfolio's market capitalization outperformed the STI by 7%. Our decision to remove OCBC on 6 August was the right decision as the stock
price fell 12.7% since. With the correction, we add OCBC back again. We remove City Developments from the portfolio
Pr ic e Ta rge t Div
(S ) Pr ic e ups id e P/E (x) Yld (%)
( ) (%) FY15F FY15F FY1 6F FY14
B a l a n c e
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 1.23 1.62 31.7 11.7 6.6 (7.3) 8.2 5.0
China Me rcha nts Hldgs (Pa cific) 0.92 1.45 58.0 9.8 9.7 (3.0) 2.4 7.6
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd 1.505 2.36 56.7 (10.9) 6.8 32.3 15.8 4.1
SIA 10.280 11.50 11.9 (1.0) 20.3 78.6 41.4 2.1
OCBC # 8.970 10.00 11.5 0.0 9.2 3.3 4.6 4.0
Co mpa ny EPS Growth (%)
g a i n
/( loss)
% inc l
d iv
Pr ic e Ta rge t Div
(S ) Pr i c e ups ide P/E (x) Yld (%)
( ) (%) FY15 F FY1 5F FY16F FY1 4
Growth
Ezion Holdings 0.69 1.00 45.2 (60.3) 5.6 (23.3) 76.2 0.1
Interplex 0.65 0.71 10.1 0.8 8.5 75.9 12.8 6.0
Tiger Airways 0.29 0.38 33.3 (12.3) 18.3 nm 41.4 -
Compa n y EPS Growth (%)
g a i n
/( loss)
% inc l
d iv
2
# addition ^ removed
Source for all data: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
price fell 12.7% since. With the correction, we add OCBC back again. We remove City Developments from the portfolio
Price Target Div
(S ) Price upside P /E (x ) Yld (%)
( ) (%) FY15F FY15F FY16F FY14
Blue Chips
CapitaLand 2.77 4.11 48.3 (13.9) 16.5 (38.5) 6.6 3.2
City Developments ^ 8.050 10.26 27.4 (19.9) 11.3 (14.3) 17.1 2.0
SIA 10.280 11.50 11.9 (1.0) 20.3 78.6 41.4 2.1
ST Engineering 2.96 3.40 14.9 (8.2) 17.4 (0.1) 0.9 5.1
SembCorp Inds 3.38 4.00 18.3 (3.9) 8.8 (14.8) 5.0 4.7
OCBC # 8.970 10.00 11.5 0.0 9.2 3.3 4.6 4.0
Company EPS Growth (%)
gain
/(loss)
% incl
div
2
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Model Portfolio
Singapore Traders Spectrum
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Hong Kong - Portfolio Performance vs Hang Seng Index
Outperform
Underperform
%
Source for all data: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
-10
Underperform
3
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Price: S$0.930 TP: S$1.12 Upside: 20.5%
Entry date: 14-Aug-14 Entry price ($): S$0.915
Days passed: 400 Dividend received: S$0.066
% gain/(loss): 8.8%
Price: S$1.31 TP: S$1.51 Upside: 14.9%Entry date: 26-Aug-14 Entry price ($) S$1.40
Days passed 388 Dividend received S$0.093
% gain/(loss) 0.2%
Sector: REITs
Frasers Commercial
Trust
ST Engineering Secure dividend yield of around 4% remains the key positive support
for the stock, and is underpinned by strong operating cash flows and
Strong and visible organic growth to drive bottomlineapletree Greater
China Commercial Trust
Your investment goal is to seek income while protecting your capital. You accept a fairly stable stock price
fluctuation with a moderate level of dividend income. The investment horizon is up to 12 months.
Sector: REITs
Conservative
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Model Portfolio
Growth driven by Alexandra Technopark (ATP) in 2015
Price Chart
Price Chart
Price Chart
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
3.90
S$
4
Price: S$2.96 TP: S$3.40 Upside: 14.9%
Entry date: 17-Jun-15 Entry price ($): S$3.28
Days passed: 93 Dividend received: S$0.000
% gain/(loss): -9.8%
Sector: Industrial
PriceChart
2.70
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
3.90
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
4
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Price: S$0.69 TP: S$1.00 Upside: 45.2%
Entry date: 14-Aug-14 Entry price ($): S$1.74
Days passed: 400 Dividend received: S$0.001
% gain/(loss): -60.3%
Price: S$0.645 TP: S$0.71 Upside: 10.1%Entry date: 17-Mar-15 Entry price ($) S$0.640
Days passed 185 Dividend received S$0.000
% gain/(loss) 0.8%
Your primary investment goal is capital growth. You can tolerate a fair amount of fluctuations in the value of
your stock investment in anticipation of possible higher returns. The investment horizon is up to 12 months.
Model Portfolio
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Sector: Oil & Gas
Interplex
Growth
Capacity discipline to boost load factors and yields, leading to
One of the most resilient Oil & Gas plays, with long-term charter of 3-
5 years, solid 3-year order backlog and reputable clientele
Ezion
Earnings recovery is driven by the US, a key market for automotive
products which should see steady growth in demand from lower fuel
cost
Sector: Industrials
Tiger Airways
Price Chart
Price Chart
Price Chart
0.50
0.70
0.90
1.10
1.30
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.650.70
0.75
0.80
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
S$
6
Price: S$0.285 TP: S$0.38 Upside: 33.3%
Entry date: 17-Mar-15 Entry price ($): S$0.325
Days passed: 185 Dividend received: S$0.000% gain/(loss): -12.3%
sus a ne earn ngs recovery. ower ue cos s o c n more
significantly from this quarter onwards
Sector: Consumer
Price Chart
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
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Model Portfolio
Price: S$2.77 TP: S$4.11 Upside: 48.3%
Entry date: 14-Aug-14 Entry price ($) S$3.32
Days passed 400 Dividend received S$0.090
% gain/(loss) -13.9%
Price: S$10.280 TP: S$11.50 Upside: 11.9%
Entry date: 17-Jun-15 Entry price ($) S$10.560Days passed 93 Dividend received S$0.170
% gain/(loss) -1.0%
ST Engineering
SIA MERS concerns are overblown whilst lower fuel costs will provide
concrete boosts to SIAs bottom line
Sector: Consumer Services
You look to include blue chips into your portfolio to provide steady growth over a longer time period. Blue
chips tend to be more stable and their holding period can extend beyond a year.
Growing operations in Singapore and China residential. Privatisation of
CMA a key driver towards lifting profits and ROEs for the group. Capital
re-cycling potential either through its REITs or funds
Secure dividend yield of around 4% remains the key positive support
for the stock, and is underpinned by strong operating cash flows and
a healthy balance sheet
Blue Chips
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Sector: Real Estate
Capitaland
Price Chart
Price Chart
Price Chart
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
3.70
3.90
S$
7
Price: S$2.96 TP: S$3.40 Upside: 14.9%
Entry date: 17-Jun-15 Entry price ($): S$3.28
Days passed: 93 Dividend received: S$0.000
% gain/(loss): -9.8%
Price: S$3.57 TP: S$4.00 Upside: 18.3%
Entry date: 03-Aug-15 Entry price ($) S$3.57
Days passed 46 Dividend received S$0.000
% gain/(loss) 0.0%
Sector: Industrial
While the Singapore power business remains under pressure, we could
expect the ramp-up in India power plants to drive sequential
improvement. Valuation is undemanding.
SembCorp Inds
Sector: Industrial
Price Chart
2.70
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
3.90
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
7
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Price: S$8.97 TP: S$10.00 Upside: 11.5%
Entry date: 17-Sep-15 Entry price ($): S$8.97
Days passed: 1 Dividend received: S$0.000% gain/(loss): 0.0%
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Model Portfolio
Sector: Banks
OCBC
Blue Chips
OCBCs business in Greater China has been enhanced with the
acquisition of Wing Hang BankPrice Chart
9.00
9.40
9.80
10.20
10.60
11.00
Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15
S$
88
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3968 HK
Price: HK$18.60 TP: HK$26.82 Upside: 44.2%
Entry date: 14-Aug-14 Entry price ($) HK$15.40
Days passed 400
% gain/(loss) 20.8%
1109 HK
Price: HK$18.80 TP: HK$32.50 Upside: 72.9%Entry date: 11-Nov-14 Entry price ($) HK$17.30
Days passed 311
% gain/(loss) 8.7%
Sector: Banks
China Merchants Bank
China Resources Land One of the few developers who has potential to succeed in Chinas retail
market place
Sector: Real Estate
Tencent Holdings Leader in online gaming; launch of Weixin is an important step to
monetise Tencents >800m users
We like CMB for its outstanding corporate governance and risk
management strategy, strong retail franchise and online platform, as
well as its transparent and consistent disclosure.
You look to diversity your risks by investing in foreign companies. You can tolerate fluctuations in the value
of your stock investments from currency exchange and country risks.
Asian Exposure
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Model Portfolio
Price Chart
Price Chart
Price Chart
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
HK$
12
14
16
18
20
2224
26
28
30
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
HK$
180
HK$
9
700 HK
Price: HK$135.40 TP: HK$184.16 Upside: 36.0%
Entry date: 16-Feb-15 Entry price ($): HK$130.50
Days passed: 214
% gain/(loss): 3.8%
1099 HK
Price: HK$28.15 TP: HK$43.60 Upside: 54.9%
Entry date: 27-Mar-15 Entry price ($): HK$29.60
Days passed: 175
% gain/(loss): -4.9%
Sector: Technology
Sinopharm Decent earnings CAGR of 21% (2014-17F) driven by penetration into
rural areas, market share gains from small players, better economic of
scale
Sector: Healthcare
PriceChart
Price Chart
90
100
110120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
HK$
19
24
29
34
39
44
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
HK$
9
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Model Portfolio
1766 HK
Price: HK$9.80 TP: HK$18.40 Upside: 96.2%
Entry date: 12-May-15 Entry price ($): HK$15.00
Days passed: 129
% gain/(loss): -34.7%
3393 HK
Price: HK$8.44 TP: HK$12.50 Upside: 48.1%
Entry date: 12-May-15 Entry price ($): HK$11.76
Days passed: 129
% gain/(loss): -28.2%
3360 HK
Price: HK$6.06 TP: HK$7.92 Upside: 30.7%
Entry date: 03-Aug-15 Entry price ($): HK$7.09
We expect fast lease growth to continue. Hospital management has
great potential amid healthcare reform.
Sector: Banks
CRRC Corp Expect global rolling stock industry to trend upward on potential new
investments; domestic demand growing
Sector: Industrials
Asian Exposure
Singapore Traders Spectrum
Wasion Group We like Wasion for its overseas expansion potential and Chinas
continued spending on energy conservation. Expects robust earnings
growth of 20-35% in these two years
Sector: Industrials
Far East Horizon
Price Chart
Price Chart
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
HK$
56
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
HK$
Price Chart
7.00
8.00
9.00
HK$
10
Days passed: 46
% gain/(loss): -14.5%
1316 HK
Price: HK$8.18 TP: HK$8.75 Upside: 7.0%
Entry date: 03-Aug-15 Entry price ($): HK$6.88
Days passed: 46
% gain/(loss): 18.9%
2393 HK
Price: HK$3.05 TP: HK$0.00 -Upside: 100.0%
Entry date: 03-Aug-15 Entry price ($): HK$2.99
Days passed: 46
% gain/(loss): 2.0%
Source for all data: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Nexteer is the world's leading electronic power steering producer. Push
for fuel-efficiency is triggering shift from hydraulic power steering to
electronic systems.
Nexteer Automotive
Sector: Consumer
Goods
Yestar International In-vitro diagnostic business to drive earnings growth; more acquisitions
to come.
Sector: Industrials
Price Chart
Price Chart
5.00
6.00
7.00
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-1
HK$
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15
HK$
10
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Singapore Traders Spectrum
Model Portfolio
DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY(>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD(-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED(negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends
Traders Spectrums product is oriented towards readers with a short-term trading horizon. It aims to highlight topical themes, which may movestock prices on a daily basis. Readers should be aware that TS Take relies more on assessments of technical factors, likely sentiment responsesand short term money flows, rather than on fundamental analysis. As such the TS Take may from time to time conflict with fundamental ratings(where stocks are ranked to Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Fully Valued and Sell on a 12 month basis), which are maintained by DBS Bank Ltd analysts. Inkeeping with the short-term orientation of the product, a stock highlighted may or may not be covered or commented on an ongoing basis.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd,its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the DBS Vickers Group) only and no part of this document maybe (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBSBank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively,the DBS Group)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject tochange without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regardto the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information ofaddressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legalor financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss ofprofit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. Thisdocument is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/orpersons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may havepositions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking andother banking services for these companies.
Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there canbe no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments.The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it
may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates andassumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates onwhich the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actualresults. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIEDUPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:
(a)such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and(b)there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or riskassessments stated therein.
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to thecommodity referred to in this report.
DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or researchdepartment, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companiesand their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensationwas, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report ispublished, the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securitiesrecommended in this report (interest includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).
COMPANY SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
1.
DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (DBSVS), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have aproprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 31 Aug 2015 except City Development, Mapletree GreaterChina Commercial Trust, Frasers Commercial Trust, ST Engineering, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, OCBC, Singapore Airlines, Ezion
Holdings, CapitaLand, Sembcorp Industries, China Resources Land, Tencent , Sinopharm Group, CRRC Corp, China MerchantsBank.
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Singapore Traders Spectrum
Model Portfolio
2. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of commonequity securities of Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust as of 31 Aug 2015.
3.
Compensation for investment banking services:
DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have received compensation, within the past 12 months,and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from FrasersCommercial Trust, Ezion Holdings, Tiger Airways Holdings.
DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment bankingtransaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information,including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this documentshould contact DBSVUSA exclusively
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Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR
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jurisdictions
In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified,professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
DBS Bank Ltd.12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3
Singapore 018982Tel. 65-6878 8888
Company Regn. No. 196800306E