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Basics ofDisaster Risk Assessment

Workshop

Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for Local Partners

8 11 December 2012

Tagaytay City

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To characterize naturalhazards of the place

Objectives:1. Prepare an inventory

the hazards

2. Data needed

Hazard Characterization/

Frequency Analysis

Consequence Analysis

Risk Estimation

Risk Evaluation

Hazard Characterization

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Hazard CharacterizationHydrometeorologic Geological

Extreme rainfall

Tropical cycloneStorm surge

Thunderstorms

Flood

Drought

Rain-induced landslide

Ground subsidence

Coastal erosion

Earthquake

Ground shakingLiquefaction, subsidence

Landslides, debris flow

Fault rupture

Tsunami

Volcanic activities

Lava flow

Steam explosion

Ashfall

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Hazard Characterization

Main Causal Agent Hazard Data needs/source

Meteorological/ Hydrological Flood READY Project (1:50,000)PAGASA (1:????)

Exposure data:

- CBMS

- Tax map (assessor)

Damage curve

Replacement value

- DA for agri cost

- DPWH for infra

Hazard Inventory (sample table):

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Risk EstimationTo estimate risk per hazard

Objectives:1. Understand concepts

and procedures of risk

estimation

2. Estimate risk

Hazard Characterization/

Frequency Analysis

Consequence Analysis

Risk Evaluation

Risk Estimation

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Consequence Analysis

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Consequence Analysis

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Brgy LandArea(ha)

Population

(2010) PopulationDensityXU 198.20 3,375 17.03

MSU 498.28 3,267 ?DVO 656.18 2,173 ?

Consequence Analysis

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Brgy LandArea(ha)

Population

(2010) PopulationDensityXU 198.20 3,375 17.03

MSU 498.28 3,267 6.56DVO 656.18 2,173 3.31

Consequence Analysis

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Brgy LandArea(ha)

Population

(2010) PopulationDensityAffected area

HSA MSA LSAXU 198.20 3,375 17.03 - 198.20 -

MSU 498.28 3,267 6.56 - - 490.00DVO 656.18 2,173 3.31 - 50.00 606.18

Brgy Potentially Affected PopulationFrequent Likely Rare

XU ? ? ?MSU ? ? ?DVO ? ? ?

Consequence Analysis

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Brgy LandArea(ha)

Population

(2010) PopulationDensityAffected area

HSA MSA LSAXU 198.20 3,375 17.03 - 198.20 -

MSU 498.28 3,267 6.56 - - 490.00DVO 656.18 2,173 3.31 - 50.00 606.18

Brgy Potentially Affected PopulationFrequent Likely Rare

XU -- 3,375.00 3,375.00MSU -- -- 3,212.71DVO -- 165.58 2,173.00

Consequence Analysis

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Consequence Analysis

HSA

MSA

LSA

Estimate fatality/damage

FAP

affected

FP

FactorPopulationC

PAP FF Consequence

Frequent 1,400 0.001 1.40

Likely 3,500 0.002 7.00

Rare 7,000 0.003 21.00

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Brgy Potentially Affected Population Factors for FatalityFrequent Likely Rare Frequent Likely Rare

XU -- 3,375.00 3,375.00 - 0.000033 0.000066MSU -- -- 3,212.71 - 0.000033 0.000066DVO -- 165.58 2,173.00 - 0.000033 0.000066

Consequence Analysis

Brgy Consequence

Frequent Likely RareXU ? ? ?

MSU ? ? ?DVO ? ? ?

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Brgy Potentially Affected Population Factors for FatalityFrequent Likely Rare Frequent Likely Rare

XU -- 3,375.00 3,375.00 - 0.000033 0.000066MSU -- -- 3,212.71 - 0.000033 0.000066DVO -- 165.58 2,173.00 - 0.000033 0.000066

Consequence Analysis

Brgy Consequence

Frequent Likely RareXU -- 0.1114 0.2228

MSU -- -- 0.2120DVO -- 0.0055 0.1434

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Risk Estimation

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Brgy Return Period Risk EstimatesHSA MSA LSA Frequent Likely Rare

XU 5 10 50 ? ? ?MSU 5 10 50 ? ? ?DVO 5 10 50 ? ? ?

Brgy ConsequenceFrequent Likely Rare

XU -- 0.1114 0.2228MSU -- -- 0.2120DVO -- 0.0055 0.1434

Risk Estimation

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Brgy Return Period Risk EstimatesHSA MSA LSA Frequent Likely Rare

XU 5 10 50 -- 0.01114 0.00446MSU 5 10 50 -- -- 0.00424DVO 5 10 50 -- 0.00055 0.00287

Brgy ConsequenceFrequent Likely Rare

XU -- 0.1114 0.2228MSU -- -- 0.2120DVO -- 0.0055 0.1434

Risk Estimation

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and good day.