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PE

RT

OP

INIO

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106

eqspertis azri

106

Salva ZebisaSvili

neorealizmis politikuri safrTxe -

winaaRmdegobrivi logikis Sedegi

eqspertis azri

laSa ZebisaSvili

neorealizmis politikuri safrTxe - winaaRmdegobrivi logikis Sedegi

2018

106

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi ekuTvnis avtorebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saelCos Tvalsazriss.

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi, maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis

fondis Tvalsazriss.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2018 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-8-0373-4

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Cveni statia neorealisturi inteleqtualuri memkvid-reobis Segrovebisa da „rusuli magaliTis“ gamoyenebiT misi sistemuri gadaxedvis erTgvari mcdelobaa; ufro konkretu-lad ki, mimovixilavT 2008 wlis Semdeg saqarTvelosa da uk rainis mimarT ruseTis sagareo politikas da SevajamebT Ta na medrove politikasTan dakavSirebiT neorealisturi meinstrimis rogorc Teoriul, ise koncefciur cnebebs. miuxedavad imisa, rom neorealizms mTeli rigi logikuri SeuTavseblobebisa axasiaTebs, mainc aqtiurad axdens ruse-Tis konkretuli magaliTis Tavisebur interpretacias (hipo-Te tur SemoTavazebebs, anu sxvadasxva qceviT molodins) da gvTavazobs ruseTis qcevis yvelaze damajerebel axsnas. amasTan, statiis farglebSi SevecdebiT warmovadginoT ruse-Tis magaliTis analitikuri garCeva, raTa mis safuZvelze dadgin des neorealisturi gancxadebebis sizuste da dama-jerebloba.

Sesavali

Tanamedrove msoflios saerTaSoriso urTierTo-bebSi arc erT arguments ar mohyolia imdeni gamoxmaureba, sapirispiro mtkiceba da emociuri winaaRmdegoba, ramdenic amerikeli neorealisti mkvlevrebis argumentma, rom ruse-Tis agresia mis samezobloSi da misi geopolitikuri kontrs-vla gamowveulia dasavleTis „moZraobiT aRmosavleTisaken“ da amiT ruseTis revizionistuli qmedebebi gamarTlebulia kidec saerTaSoriso sistemis struqturuli bunebiT (ufro detalurad ganmartebulia qvemoT). sayovelTaod cnobil mediawyaroebsa da gamocemebSi, iqneboda es Foreign Affairs, New York Times, Foreign Policy Tu The National Interest, gamoqveynda mravali statia, romlebic srulad mihyveba neorealisturi mtki cebebis ZiriTad ideebs da farTo saerTaSoriso aRiare-bac moipova, rom araferi vTqvaT maT gavlenaze politikuri gadawyvetilebebis mimRebebsa da akademiur wreebSi, zogadad dasavleTsa da, gansakuTrebiT, evropaSi.

bunebrivia, neorealistebis mtkicebebs win daxvda kritikis uzarmazari talRa, rogorc empiriuli (politikas-Tan dakavSirebiT), ise Teoriuli nawilebis Tanmimdevrulo-

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baSi arsebuli naklovanebebis gamo (ufro detaluri analizi ix. qvemoT). miuxedavad imisa, rom kritikis am orive ganzo-milebas neorealisturi logikis gasabaTileblad uamravi argumentis moSvelieba SeuZlia, kontrargumentebSi aSkara upiratesoba aqvs empiriul nawils. es asimetria ramdenime mizeziT aixsneba, rac ZiriTadad saerTaSoriso da saSinao politikis dinamikur da Tavisufal xasiaTs ukavSirdeba da mudmiv sifxizles moiTxovs. miuxedavad amisa, SeuZlebelia am asimetriis didi xniT SenarCuneba da aucileblad unda gamoswordes.

Cven, pirvel rigSi, SevecdebiT vaCvenoT neorealis-turi Sexedulebebis saSiSi xasiaTi, rogorc safuZvlisa, romelsac daeyrdnoba sagareo Tu saSinao politika. amasTan, Cveni kritika iqneba gansxvavebuli, daefuZneba meTods, ro-melic praqtikulad ar aris warmodgenili mimdinare akade-miur diskusiaSi. sawyis etapze Cven ufro met yuradRebas da-vuTmobT neorealist mecnierebs da gverds avuvliT maT ara-akademiur apologetebs im didi mniSvnelobis gamo, romelsac neorealistebi sakuTar Teoriul daskvnebs aniWeben da romelTa mixedviTac SesaZlebelia politikuri qmedebebis (magaliTad, natos gafarToeba) gamarTleba, gakritikeba an sruliad uaryofa. miuxedavad erTgvari simartivisa, Cven ar SevudgebiT empiriul kritikas neorealizmis susti sabaziso meTodologiuri principebis (ufro zustad ki, msjelobis) aRniSvnis gareSe, romlebsac, rogorc wesi, mivyavarT bundo-van, damabnevel da xSirad, kontrproduqtiul Tu ara, dama-zianebel politikur SemoTavazebebamde. Cven aseve yuradRe-bas gavamaxvilebT im garemoebaze, Tu rogor SeiZleba Teo-riuli Seusabamobebis, brma Teoriuli erTgulebisa da saer-TaSoriso da saSinao politikis ganmapirobebeli ZiriTadi faqtorebis xelaRebiT ugulebelyofam migviyvanos mcdar da saxifaTo daskvnebamde, romlebic kidev ufro saxifaTo xde-ba, roca iwyeba politikaSi maTi praqtikuli ganxorcieleba.

Sesabamisad, Cven gamovkveTavT 2008 wlis Semdgom ruse-Tis moqmedebis neorealistur interpretacias da qcevis axs-nis miseul variantebs. miuxedavad imisa, rom neorealisturi Teoriis fundamenturi principebis analizi misi daskvnebis sizustis Sesamowmeblad sul sxva naSromis mizania, Cven naS-

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romis daskvniT nawilSi mainc CamovTvliT im ZiriTad princi-pebs, romlebsac neorealisti avtorebi mudmivad iyenebdnen ruseTis sagareo politikisa da dasavleTis gafarToebaze misi reaqciebis asaxsnelad aRmosavleT evropasa da postsab-WoTa sivrceSi. amgvari midgoma saSualebas gvaZlevs winas-war SevadaroT neorealisti avtorebis mtkicebebi realiz-mis Teoriis zogad logikasa da principebs, raTa gamovavli-noT maTi Seusabamobis xarisxi. Cven aseve gamoviyenebT sxva Teoriul skolebs, rogorc Teoriuli da meTodologiuri kritikis mTavar wyaroebs, rom damatebiT davadginoT neo-realizmis ganzogadebis xarisxi, rac Tanamedrove msoflio politikisTvis misi Teoriul-meTodologiuri CarCos far-To gamoyenebis SesaZleblobas gulisxmobs.

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi „rusuli Tavistkivilis“ neorealisturi interpretacia

mTavari mizezi, ramac ruseTis geopolitikuri svle-bis motivebze neorealisti avtorebis cxare kamaTi gamoi-wvia, iyo saxalxo ajanyeba ukrainaSi, prorusulad ganwyo-bili prezident ianukoviCis gaqceva, kremlis mier yirimis aneqsia da aRmosavleT ukrainis or regionSi farTomasStabi-ani samxed ro konfrontaciis wamowyeba. am movlenebze evro-pis politikuri pasuxi iyo araerTgvarovani, neli da xasi-aTdeboda erTgvari TavSekavebiT, rom ar miemarTa ruseTis dasasjelad radikaluri RonisZiebebisTvis, emxroboda ra ufro mozomil sanqciebs manam, sanam sabolood gadawydebo-da, Tu rogor miexedaT „Zveli-axali“ revizionistuli Zali-saTvis evropaSi. miuxedavad imisa, rom iyo e.w. „TavSekavebul-Ta banakSi“, ar niSnavs aRiarebde „business as ususal“-is midgo-mas an Tundac asrulebde ruseTis mexuTe kolonis rols (“Russland Versteher” _ germaniaSi SemoRebuli termini), am bana-kis wevrTa argumentebi da logika Zalian hgavs im logikas da gamarT lebis meTodebs, romlebsac farTod gamoiyeneben neorealis ti mecnierebi, pirvel rigSi ki, jon mirSaimeri da stiven volti.

mirSaimeris 2014 wels Foreign Affairs-Si gamoqveynebul

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statias bombis efeqti hqonda Sedegebisa da interpretaciis TvalsazrisiT, rogorc politikur, ise akademiur diskusi-ebSi.1 avtorma statiis saTaurSive (Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions that Provoked Putin) sakmaod mkafio gancxadeba gaakeTa da amiT daupirispirda saerTaSoriso wes-rigis liberalur safuZvlebs. man gaacocxla Zveli da siRr-miseuli debatebi saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis realist da liberalur-institucionalist mecnierebs Soris. amasTan, scada ukrainis krizisi gamoeyenebina da warmoeCina realiz-mi, rogorc saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis yvelaze ufro mZlavri Teoriuli safuZveli, romliTac yvelaze kargad aixsneba ruseTis agresiuli sagareo politika. statia aSkara kavSirs gvTavazobs Teoriasa da realpolitikas Soris, rac gansakuTrebiT sayuradReboa. mirSaimeris mTavari gzavnilia:

„putinis winaaRmdegoba ar unda yofiliyo gasakviri. bolos da bolos dasavleTma Seabija ruseTis ezoSi da daemuqra mis Zireul strategiul interesebs _ faqti, romelsac putini xSirad da mkafiod aRniSnavda“.2

mirSaimeri brals sdebs dasavleTis elitebs, rom, erTi mxriv, isini dabrmavebuli arian saerTaSoriso urTi-erTobebis liberaluri principebiT, rac realurad ar muSa-obs, xolo, meore mxriv, ugulebelyofen realizmis logi-kas, e.w. realpolitik-s, anu ruseTis interesebis aRiarebas mis samezobloSi. am gancxadebas mosdevs mirSaimeris mTavari argu mentebi:

• natosa da evrokavSiris gafarToebam, demokratiis waxali-sebis paralelurad, aiZula kremli pasuxad samxedro meTodi gamoeyenebina. dasavlel diplomatebs ar esmodaT ruseTis SeSfoTeba da ver SeZles kremlis signalebis aRq ma, miuxedavad 2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos xanmokle omisa, romelsac unda gaefanta yvelanairi eWvi, Tu ram-denad mzad iyo putini xeli SeeSala saqarTvelosa da ukrainis natoSi gawevrianebisaTvis.

• yvela qveyana da, gansakuTrebiT, Zlieri saxelmwifo Ta-vad wyvets, Tu ras miiCnevs safrTxed, mgrZnobiarea am

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safrTxeebis mimarT sakuTari sazRvrebis siaxloves da, Sesabamisad, ar Seegueba nebismier „mtrul“ gafarToebs e.w. buferuli zonis Semcirebis xarjze (ukraina, saqarT-velo).

• gamomdinare iqidan, rom „Zala xSirad samarTalsac qmnis“ (might often makes right), mcire saxelmwifoebs uwevT „tanj-va“ Zlieri saxelmwifoebis interesebis gamo da Zli-er saxelm wifoebTan Sejaxebisas maTi TviTgamorkvevis ufleba mniSvnelobas kargavs.

Cveni mizani araa gamovasworoT yvela is faqtobrivi Tu logikuri Secdoma, rac mirSaimerma dauSva Tavis sta-tiaSi; Tumca Zalian mniSvnelovania, rom uyuradRebod ar davtovoT zogierTi maTgani, radgan gamomdinareobs zemoT xsenebuli ZiriTadi principebidan da sxva avtorebic iyene-ben rusuli narativis gasamarTleblad. ase, magaliTad, mir-Saimeri iSveliebs 1998 wlis jorj qenanis 1998 wels mice-mul intervius, sadac is energiulad upirispirdeboda natos gafarToebas, mis momxreebs da winaswar Wvretda ruseTis Zaladobriv reaqcias. Sesabamisad, amis gasamarTleblad is martiv xerxs iyenebs gancxadebiT „xom gafrTxilebdiT, rom rusebi aseTebi arian?“.3

kenanic da mirSaimeric cdebian rogorc realisturi, ise istoriuli TvalsazrisiT. Teoriuli nawili zedmiwevniT iqneba gaanalizebuli sxva naSromSi, romelic realizmis fun-damentur principebsa da mis neorealistur ganStoebas gaus-vams xazs. Cvens SemTxvevaSi ki gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda daeTmos ruseTis reaqcias natos gafarToebaze 1990-ian wlebis bolos da 2000-is dasawyisSi. istoriulad, ruseTs ar upasuxia agresiuli nabijebiT natosa da evrokavSiris gafar-Toebis ramodenime talRaze (nato _ 1999, 2004; evrokavSiri _ 2004, 2007) 2008 wlamde, anu im momentamde, roca man sakuTari Tavi imdenad Zlierad miiCnia, rom omi daiwyo saqarTvelos-Tan. argumenti natos gafarToebis geografiuli siaxlovis Sesaxeb, romlis mixedviTac, rac ufro axlosaa gafarToeba ruseTis sazRvarTan, miT ufro metad aris mosalodneli ruseTis Zaladobrivi reaqcia, ar dadasturda baltiispire-Tis qveynebis SemTxvevaSi _ am qveynebs uSualo geografiuli

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sazRvari aqvT ruseTTan. mirSaimeri aRiarebs kidec, rom am SemTxvevaSi gamoyenebeli logika sustia, Tumca cdilobs es garemoeba natos am axali wevri qveynebis mcire zomiT axs-nas, magram arc saqarTvelo jdeba didi an saSualo zomis qveynebis kategoriaSi (zomiT, mosaxleobiT an ekonomikiT); baltiispireTis qveynebis msgavsad, saqarTveloc mcire zo-misaa da ruseTisTvis veranairi analiziT ver iqneboda saqa-rTvelo seriozuli safrTxe. ruseTis reaqciebs Soris gansx-vaveba (erT SemTxvevaSi _ moTmena, xolo meoreSi _ agresi-uli omi) SeiZleba aixsnas mxolod SesaZleblobebis, Zalisa da Tavdajerebis zrdiT (risi seriozuli deficitic ruseTs 1990-ianebis bolodan 2000-ianebis dasawyisamde hqonda). Se-sabamisad, Tu yvelaferi mxolod Zalazea damokidebuli (av-toris logikis mixedviT), romelsac Zlieri qveynebi iyeneben moqmedebis (reaqciis) gzebisa da masStabis dasadgenad, maSin sruliad gaugebaria, ratom unda SenarCunebuliyo bufer-uli zona, anu politikuri da usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT gaurkvevli sivrce 1990-ianebis bolodan 2000-iani wlebis da-sawyisis CaTvliT aRmosavleT evropaSi, rodesac dasavleTs swored Zalis mxriv aSkara upiratesoba hqonda ruseTTan Se-darebiT. kidev ufro gaugebaria, Tu ratom unda gaeTvalis-winebina dasavleTs ukve dasustebuli, daRmavali super-saxelm wifos SfoTva abstraqtuli momavlis fonze, romelic ar iZleoda stabiluri demokratiis damyarebisa Tu xelaxla aRorZinebuli avtokratiis gamoricxvis aranair garantias.

mirSaimeri, rogorc realistebis umravlesoba, acxadebda, rom sul ufro dasustebuli supersaxelmwifos Sekaveba saWiro aRar iyo da gafarToeba moskovs ubralod sa-babs miscemda aRmosavleT evropaSi problemebis Sesaqmnelad. miuxedavad amisa, istoriuli gamocdileba adasturebs, rom gafarToebis arc erT talRas 1999 wlidan 2008 wlamde ruse-Tis mxridan rame seriozuli winaaRmdegoba an problema ar Sexvedria. gansxvavebuli viTarebaa 2008 wlis Semdgom peri-od Si, romelic xasiaTdeba ruseTis mzardi agresiiT da Sida saqmeebSi CareviT, ara mxolod aRmosavleT evropaSi, ara med dasavlur demokratiebSi evropasa da mTel msoflioSi.

statiaSi ori saboloo daskvniT mirSaimeri rig mov-lenebze amaxvilebs yuradRebas da Semdeg ZiriTad Tezisebs

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ayalibebs: pirvelis mixedviT, TiTqos moZvelda is liberalu­ri logika, romelic dasavleTma SecdomiT aitaca saerTaSori­so urTierTobebSi sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg da imde­nad Zlierad miiCnia, rom realisturi logika uaryo da misiT Caanacvla. mirSaimeris mixedviT, obamas administraciasa da dasavleTs gansxvavebuli ideebi amoZravebdaT. isini mih-yve bodnen liberalur ideebs da xSirad ugulebelyofdnen safrTxes, romelic momdinareobda Zalis ufro tradiciuli Sexedulebebidan. am dros kremli misdevda realistur prin-cipebs da amiT dasavleTis aRSfoTebas iwvevda.4 garda amisa, patara saxelmwifoebs ar aqvT ufleba SeuerTdnen sasurvel alianss da warmoadginon rusuli safrTxis sakuTari dasabu-Teba. kubis krizisis analogia sustia swored rom miRebuli sapirispiro Sedegis gamo _ kastrom SesaniSnavad gamoiye na krizisidan miRebuli SesaZlebloba Tavisi qveynis usafr T-xoebis gansamtkiceblad, risi garantiac supersaxelm wifoebma krizisis Semdegac SeunarCunes. argumenti, rom ruseTs, mtki cebulebebis, resursebisa da samxedro SesaZleblobebis simciris gamo, 2014 wlamde ar hqonda (aqvs) survili Seeqmna didi ruseTi an moexdina yirimis aneqsia, ususuria uamravi mizezis gamo da kidev erTxel aCvenebs realisturi skolis Teoriuli sayrdenis empiriul sibrmaves da miamitobas.

sul rom davxuWoT Tvali saqarTveloSi ruseTis 2008 wlis okupaciasa da putinis cnobil damokidebulebaze sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis mimarT (romelsac man mwuxarebiT „saukunis mTavari geopolitikuri katastrofa“ uwoda, ro-melic „iqca namdvili drama rusi erisaTvis“), aseve ruseTis seriozul mcdelobebze aRedgina Tavisi gavlena postsab-WoTa sivrceSi, ruseTis mTeli strategia ukrainis mimarT miznad isaxavda am qveynis (ukrainis) ekonomikuri da samxed-ro damokidebulebis SenarCunebas sawyis etapze iseTi meqa-nizmebiT, rogoric iyo sabaJo kavSiri da Savi zRvis flotis SeTanxmeba, romelic 2010 wels daido da romlis moqmedeba 2042 wlamde iyo gaTvlili.5 prezident ianukoviCis proru-sulma reJimma ukrainaze ruseTis politikuri kontrolis garantia uzrunvelyo, iseve, rogorc instituciuri meqa-nizmebisa da zogadad saxelmwifoebriobis neli erozia, rac droTa ganmavlobaSi ukrainas aqcevda arSemdgar saxelmwi-

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fod da ruseTis mowyalebis amarad datovebda. Sesabamisad, moskovs ar hqonda obieqturi mizezi, Careuliyo ukrainis procesebSi 2014 wlis movlenebamde. mirSaimeri aseve cdeba da, ufro metic, ucodinrobas avlens, roca ugulebelyofs ruseTs, rogorc samxedro Zalas, romelsac SeuZlia mTel ukrainasTan gamklaveba, da ruseTis SeiaraRebul Zalebs sa-Sualo donisad afasebs, romelic veranairad Seedreba „ver-maxts“. ukve 2008 wlisTvis miuTiTebda uamravi werilobiTi wyaro, angariSi da sxva saxis Ria monacemi arsebul sagangaSo tendenciaze _ ruseTis Tavdacvis saministro intensiurad axorcielebda uprecedento masStabis samxedro reformas. am reformam sul ramdenime weliwadSi ruseTis SeiaraRebuli Zalebi xarisxobrivad bevrad ufro seriozul Zalad aqcia, romelsac hqonda maRali sabrZolo mzadyofna, ukeT iyo aR-Wurvili, gawvrTnili da mzad iyo gamoeyenebina 2008 wlis Semdeg didi raodenobiT miRebuli axali, ufro letaluri SeiaraReba.6 ufro metic, ukrainis aRmosavleT da samxreT regionebis adgilobriv municipalitetebSi sazogadoebrivi areulobis, daumorCileblobisa da Zaladobrivi gadatri-alebebis xelSewyobiT kremli aSkarad isaxavda miznad mezob-lis saxelmwifoebriobis moSlas da saboloo dartymisTvis yvela saWiro saSualebis gamoyenebas. am taqtikis sruli masStabi da siRrme, romelsac zogadad hibriduli omi daer-q va, yvelaze kargad swored 2014 wlis ukrainis krizisis dros gamoCnda. miuxedavad imisa, rom neorealisturi midgo-misaTvis didi mniSvneloba aqvs samxedro Temas, aSkaraa mir-Saimeris arakompetenturoba samxedro analizisas. 2014 wels ukrainaSi ganxorcielebulma sabrZolo moqmedebebma ruse-Tis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis gansacvifrebeli SesaZlebloba aCvena _ ukrainis sazRvarTan sruliad SeumCnevlad moxda damrtymeli Zalebis koncentracia da iseTi maRali sizusti-Ta da letalurobiT gamoyeneba, rom miuxedavad am inter-venciis SezRuduli xasiaTisa, moaxerxes Setevaze gadasuli ukrainuli qvedanayofebis ramdenjerme sruli damarcxeba da separatistul regionebze ukrainuli kontrolis aRkveTa.7

mirSaimeris mtkicebiT, ruseTisaTvis ukrainis strategiuli mniSvnelobis gamo kremli mzad iqneba aitanos araerTi sanqcia da sadamsjelo zoma. is aseve ambobs, rom

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dasavleTma ar unda wamoiwyos iseTi politika, romelsac igi ver daicavs, Tundac SedarebiT susti ruseTis winaaRmdeg, rac imas niSnavs, rom ukraina ar miekuTvneba aSS-isa da evropeli mokavSireebis ZiriTadi strategiuli interesebis sferos da, Sesabamisad, arc ukrainis dasacavad samxedro Zalis gamoye-nebis mzadyofna arsebobs. am gadmosaxedidan, mirSaimeris az-riT, logikuri gamosavalia buferuli zona, radgan Zlier saxelmwifoebs gacilebiT mniSvnelovani saerTo strategi-uli interesebi aqvT, rogoricaa, magaliTad, ruseTis mxar-daWera avRaneTSi, birTvuli SeTanxmeba iranTan da siriis konfliqtis daregulireba. unda iTqvas, rom am mtkicebebis gamo avtori Tavisive dagebul logikur maxeSi ebmeba da war-moudgenel politikur miamitobas avlens, kerZod:

• Tu mirSaimeris adreuli mtkicebiT, dasavleTs ar aqvs ga-farToebis mizezi ruseTis isedac Semcirebadi safrTxis gamo, ratom ewinaaRmdegeba is gafarToebas, Tu rusuli safrTxe piriqiT mzardia („mzardi Zala - rising power~ _ mirSaimeris mixedviT)?

• natos yovelTvis axasiaTebda erToblivi qmedebisa da aliansis axali wevris mimarT mtkice mxardaWeris dilema. igi iwyeboda sakiTxiT, iyo Tu ara dasavleT berlini im-denad Rirebuli, rom dasavleTs birTvuli omi daewyo sabWoTa kavSirTan da mTavrdeba dRevandeli problemiT, romelic gulisxmobs axali wevri qveynebis, gansakuTrebiT ki baltiispireTis qveynebis unars Tu uunarobas daicvan Tavi rusuli jarisgan.8 miuxedavad am ganwyobebisa, ara-sodes, natos Seqmnis dRidan moyolebuli dRemde, koleq-tiuri Tavdacvisa da gafarToebis winaaRmdeg dayenebuli arc erTi argumenti ar gamarTlebula.

• avtoris dasaxelebul arc erT sakiTxSi, sadac strategi-uli TanamSromloba aucileblobas warmoadgenda, ruseTs srulmasStabiani daxmareba ar gauwevia da Tu gauwevia, mxolod imdenad, ramdenadac mis interesebs sWirdeboda da xSirad ugulebelyofda kidec aSS/dasavleTis intere-sebs (mag., alepos alya da ruseTis samxedro daxmareba asadis reJimisTvis, qimiuri iaraRis gamoyeneba da ruse-Tis mier CrdiloeT koreis reJimisaTvis gaweuli faruli daxmareba).9

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realurad, mirSaimeris SemoTavazebuli TanamSrom-loba ufro metad hgavs calmxrivi daTmobis politikas da TanamSromlobas, romelic mxolod ruseTis interesebs em-saxureba. mirSaimeris argumentebi rusuli wvlilisTvis didi mniSvnelobis miniWebas emsaxureba, Tumca sinamdvileSi sxva araferia, Tu ara daSoSminebis gauazrebeli politika.

neorealisturi xotba da kisinjeris „memkvidreoba“

miuxedavad aSkara faqtobrivi da logikuri xarveze-bisa, rac damaxasiaTebelia mirSaimerisTvis, Foreign Affairs-Si misma gamoqveynebulma statiam mainc daimsaxura mravali mec-nieris dadebiTi gamoxmaureba. gasakviri ar aris, rom isini ZiriTadad neorealistur meinstrims warmoadgendnen. maga-li Tad, robert d. kaplani statiis gamoqveynebamde gacile-biT adre scemda pativs, Tumca aRiarebda neorealizmSi arse-bul naklovanebas, romlis gamosworebac erT-erTi Teori-uli variaciis _ TavdasxmiT realizmis _ farglebSi SeuZleb-lad miaCnda.10 2014 wlis noemberSi politikuri mecnierebis publikaciebis erT-erT did germanul platformaze, BPB-ze (Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung)11, kristian hekem principulad dauWira mxari mirSaimeris neorealisturi logikis mTavar gzavnilebs. man pirdapir gaimeora ukve kargad nacnobi argu-mentebi da daamata, rom dasavleTis uunarobam gaecnobiere-bina usafrTxoebis mimarT ruseTis damokidebuleba, ampar-tavnebasTan erTad, moskovSi avtoritaruli reJimis Camoya-libebas misca stimuli. Saimeris statiebis gamoCenis Semdeg, maleve, The Nation-is redaqtorebma gamoaqveynes erToblivi masala, sadac isini metwilad eTanxmebodnen am angariSgasawev neorealist mecniers da amtkicebdnen, rom ukraina warmoad-genda ruseTis strategiuli interesebis centrs. Sesabami-sad, isinic, evropaSi usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT daZabu-lobis mosaxsnelad, mxars uWerdnen buferuli zonis ideas.12 2015 wlis TebervalSi mirSaimerma kidev erTi Tema gamoitana sajarod gansaxilvelad da ukrainis samxedro daxmarebis idea gaakritika. igi miiCnevda, rom dasavluri samxedro dax-marebiTac ki ar eqneboda ukrainas Sansi separatistebsa da maT zurgs ukan mdgar rusul jars gamklaveboda.13 am Ria

13

weril Si mirSaimeri ukve aRar amtkicebs, rom rusul mxares ar hqonda ganzraxva da unari daemarcxebina ukrainis armia, rac misi adreuli, 2014 wlis poziciis mniSvnelovani cvli-lebaa, Tumca mTavar gzavnilad darCa ukrainis neitraluro-ba da buferuli zonis idea. mirSaimers kidev erTi soliduri neorealisti avtori _ stiven m. volti miemxro. Foreign Policy-Si gamoqveynebul pirvel statiaSi man mxari dauWira mir-Saimeris pozicias da aRiara, rom aucilebelia ruseTis sa-sicocxlo interesebis gaTvaliswneba, rom ukraina aris ru-suli orbitis (gavlenis sferos) kuTvnileba da rom ruseTis bevrad ufro Zlieri jaris fonze usargebloa ukrainisaTvis samxedro daxmarebis gaweva.14 meore statiaSi volti warmate-buli amerikuli sagareo politikis sawarmoeblad amerikis momaval prezidents xuT ZiriTad rCevas sTavazobs da ZalTa balansis Taobaze aRniSnavs:

„aSS-isa da evrokavSiris umaRlesi donis diplomatebs rom esmodeT es principi (ZalTa balansi), maTTvis ase-Ti moulodneli ar iqneboda ruseTis mZime qmedebebi ukrainaSi, saqarTveloSi an, Tundac, siriaSi. bolos da bolos putini mxolod imas akeTebda, rasac amerika mudmivad akeTebda Tavis „ukana ezoSi~.15

araferia gasakviri, rom usafrTxoebis sakiTxebsa da gavlenis sferoebze diskusias umniSvnelovanesi adgili uWiravs neorealistur naSromebSi. Tumca ZalTa balan-sis, Zlierebis absoluturi maCveneblisa da im principis gaTvalis winebiT, Tu vis SeuZlia ufro metis gadaxda strate-giuli miznebis misaRwevad, Seqmnili viTareba aSkarad dasav-luri Zalebis sasargeblod metyvelebs. es daskvna emyareba garemoebas, rom bevrad ufro Zlevamosil dasavleTs Tanmim-devrulad SeuZlia gazardos ruseTisTvis moqmedebis fasi da amiT misi „sisxlisgan dacla“ gamoiwvios, ris fonzec mas, saboloo jamSi, mainc naklebi xarjis gaweva mouwevs, vidre ruseTs.

2015 wlis ivnisSi mirSaimerma 1990-dan 2008 wlamde ganvlil periods evropis „oqros xana“ uwoda _ ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris mSvidobiani da ukonfliqto periodi, bal-kanuri movlenebis gamoklebiT.16 es Sefaseba aranair logkas

14

ar eqvemdebareba. pirvel rigSi, gaugebaria ratom aris mini-mumamde dayvanili balkanuri konfliqtebis roli, romelic xSirad swored ruseTis usafrTxoebis sakiTxebis mimarT sensitiurobasa da dasavleTis mimarT politikis cvlile-bas ganapirobebda? es debuleba avtoris logikur Tanmim-devrulobasTan dakavSirebiT garkveul kiTxvebs aCens _ xom ar cdilobs mirSaimeri Tavis Sexedulebas moargos faqtebi da SerCeviTi midgoma gamoiyenos. amasTan, mirSaimeri amtki-cebs, rom natom evropaSi damSoSmineblis roli Seasrula ise, rom rusebis ukmayofileba ar gamouwvevia. ruseTs ar gasCenia SegrZneba, rom „raime seriozuli“ safrTxis winaSe idga. misi azriT, amis Sedegi iyo, rom aliansis gafarToe-bis meore talRa 2004 wels, romelmac baltiispireTis qvey-nebi gaawevriana natoSi, kremlma sasikvdilo safrTxed ar aRiqva.17 Tavi rom davaneboT uamrav oficialur wyaros, romelic sruliad gansxvavebul suraTs xatavs da naTlad aCvenebs ruseTis ganrisxebas rogorc natos moqmedebiT kosovoSi, ise gafarToebis gadawyvetilebiT, gasaocaria, Tu rarig martivad iyenebs avtori ormag standartebs neoreal-isturi logikis saSualebiT da amave dros sruliad ugule-belyofs rogorc ZiriTad faqtebs, ise Tavad realisturi skolis mier farTod gamoyenebul fundamentur principebs. Tu SiSi usafrTxoebis TvalsazrisiT, geografiuli siaxlove sazRvrebTan da postsabWoTa memkvidreoba (gavlenis sfero, anu imave mniSv nelobiT gamoyenebuli termini „axlo sazR-vargareTi“) warmoadgenda im ZiriTad faqtorebs, ramac ru-seTis agresiuli winaaRmdegoba gamoiwvia, maSin absolutu-rad gaugebaria, Tu ratom dauSva ruseTma baltiispireTis saxelmwifoebis nato Si gawevrianeba. dauSvebelia am logikis SerCeviTi gamoyeneba, miT ufro, neorealizmis farglebSi, misi ganzogadebis TviTgamocxadebuli didi potencialis gamo. mirSaimeri da misi mxardamWerebi ver SeZleben dama-jerebeli axsna gamona xon, Tu ar gaiTvaliswineben ruseTis Sida politikas, mis samxedro Zalas da ekonomikur damokide-bulebas dasavleTze. mxolod ZalTa Sefardebisa da Zalis Semadgeneli elemente bis analizis Semdeg gaxdeba naTeli, Tu ratom Semoifargla erT SemTxvevaSi (2004 wels baltiispire-Tis saxelmwifoebis miReba natoSi) kremli mxolod sityvieri

15

protestiT, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi (2008 wels buqarestis deklaracia saqarT velosa da ukrainis samomavlo wevrobis Sesaxeb natoSi) samxed ro intervenciis saxis winmswreb qmede-bebs mimarTa.

2016 wlis zafxulSi jon mirSaimerma da stiven volt-ma erTad kidev erTxel gaimeores neorealistebis argumen-tebi, rom aSS-s, natos gafarToebis mxardaWeris nacvlad, unda Seemcirebina Tavisi samxedro Zalebi evropaSi, evropis usafrTxoeba evropelebisTvis unda gadaebarebina da megob-ruli urTierTobebi daemyarebina ruseTTan.18 sainteresoa, rom avtorebi Tavadve aRiareben evropelebis ususurobas sakuTari usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis TvalsazrisiT, rac potenciurad gazrdis krizisebis albaTobas. miuxedavad am ucnauri logikisa, mkvlevrebi yvelasaTvis moulodnelad askvnian, rom amgvari konfliqturi scenari mainc ar Seuqmni-da safrTxes aSS-is sasicocxlo interesebs. amgvari daskvna saTuos xdis am avtorebis logikur Tanmimdevrulobas. mir-Saimeri da volti kidev ufro Sors midian da mouwodeben aSS-s ruseTs wamyvani moTamaSis pozicia dauTmos siriaSi da asadis kontrolqveS qveynis stabilizaciaze izrunos, rac, maTi azriT, safrTxes ar Seuqmnis aSS-is interesebs.19 Znelia aixsnas, ratom ar daazianebs aSS-is interesebs krizisebiTa da ZaladobiT moculi evropa, romlis winaaRmdegac ruseTs mTeli rigi berketebis gamoyenebis saSualeba eqneba. aqve gasaTvaliswinebelia aSS-is globalur roli, misi damokide-buleba evropel partniorebTan da evropul ekonomikasTan. orive avtors axasiaTebs amerikis mxolod regionul Zalad ganxilva (dasavleT naxevarsferos kontroli), Tumca arc erTi maTgani ar gvTavazobs globaluri supersaxelmwifo-sadmi aseTi reduqcionistuli midgomis damajerebel mizezs. magaliTad, 2016 wels ucxeli studentebisaTvis organi-zebul Liberty Conference-ze jon mirSaimerma ganacxada, rom: „amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis erT-erTi umTavresi erovnu-li interesia SeinarCunos regionuli hegemonia dasavleT naxevarsferoSi“.20 Tavi rom davaneboT am mtkicebis absur-dulobas, romelic amerikas mxolod regionul Zalad ganixi-lavs (Tumca hegemonad), msoflios globaluri ekonomikuri da usafrTxoebis urTierTdamokidebulebis qselis arsebo-

16

ba sapirispiro faqtze metyvelebs, kerZod imaze, rom aSS-s aranaklebi mniSvnelobis interesebi aqvs evropaSi an axlo aRmosavleTSi, vidre Cilesa Tu argentinaSi da rom aSS-is in-teresebi bevrad ufro farToa, vidre dasavleT naxevarsfe-roSi hegemonia.

ruseTis Zlierebis Sefasebisas mirSaimeri im daskv-namde midis, rom ruseTis Zliereba iklebs, mosaxleoba mcir deba da Zalis proecirebis SesaZleblobebi Zalze Sez-Rudulia.21 miuxedavad amisa da realizmis ZalTa balansis logikis sruliad sawinaaRmdegod, mkvlevari warmoudgenel rCevas gvTavazobs _ siriisa da iranis sakiTxebis gadawyve-tis sanacvlod ruseTTan TanamSromlobas da partniorobas. praqtikulad, es SeTavazeba niSnavs partniorobas sust da naklebad gavlenian qveyanasTan, rac saSualebas miscemda ru-seTs daezoga meti resursi, dro da saSualeba Tavisi kleba-di gavlenis SesanarCuneblad. faqtobrivad, es iqneboda sxva araferi, Tu ara ruseTis gavlenis sferoebis de faqto aRi-areba da mxardaWera. msgavsi argumentia warmodgenili aseve 2017 wlis ianvarSi gamoqveynebul baseviCisa da mirSaimeris saerTo naSromSi obamas memkvidreobis Sesaxeb.22

kidev erTi aranakleb „ganmanaTlebeli“ axsna ruse-Tis qcevisa, romelic kargad jdeba neorealisturi axs-nis paradigmaSi da, rac mTavaria, realpolitikis qarizmis damajereb loba aqvs, Camoyalibebuli aqvs Tavad henri kisin-jers. misi gansakuTrebuli wvlili ruseTTan dakavSirebul debatebSi, sxva avtorebisgan gansxvavebiT, aris misi mcdelo-ba, rom aqcen ti gakeTdes arsebuli problemis gadawyvetis saSualebeb ze, Tumca aqac didwiladaa warmodgenili rusuli motivaciis neorealisturi „gageba“.23 2014 wlis martSi Wash-ington Post-Si gamoqveynebul statiaSi kisinjerma gamoxata sa-kuTari pozicia ukrainaSi mimdinare movlenebiTan dakavSire-biT da Semdegi mosazrebebi SemogvTavaza:

• ukrainam Tavad unda airCios sad unda gawevriandes poli-tikurad da ekonomikurad, Tumca ar unda mieces natos wevroba.

• erT-erTi varianti SeiZleba iyos fineTis msgavsi neitral-iteti.

17

• yirimTan urTierTobebi ufro naklebi „daZabulobis safuZvelze“ unda warimarTos, raTa moxerxdes da ruseT-ma aRiaros am naxevarkunZulze ukrainis suvereniteti.

gasaocaria, Tu rogori sizustiT mihyveba henri kisin-jeri neorealistebis nakvalevs da icavs calmxrivi daTmo-bebis princips, romelic ruseTTan TanamSromlobis misaR-wevad mxolod dasavleTma da ukrainam unda gaiziaron. is gacilebiT xSirad adanaSaulebs dasavleTs TanamSromlobis Cavardnis gamo, mianiSnebs ruseTis udanaSaulobaze da amarT-lebs kidec mis agresiul da revizionistul xasiaTs. aranak-leb SemaSfoTebelia kisinjerisgan rusuli narativis miReba, sjera ra, rom TiTqos danawevrebuli ukrainuli sazoga-doeba saWiroebs Serigebas, kremli dakmayofildeboda „sabo-loo“ SeTanxmebiT Savi zRvis flotze da ukrainis mxridan raime „instituciuri mtrobis Tavidan aridebiT“, rac SesaZ-lebels gaxdida gadaiWras yirimis krizisi, anu gaamyarebda mis avtonomias ukrainis saxelmwifos SemadgenlobaSi. ufro metic, ukrainuli da dasavluri interesebis „gagebisa“ da „aRiarebis“ aucileblobis mtkiceba, Tavisi intensiurobiT (gacilebiT dabalia), ver gautoldeba imave moTxovnas ru-seTis interesebTan dakavSirebiT. kisinjerisTvis yovelT-vis dasavleTia movale gaigos, rom ukraina ruseTisaTvis veras dros iqneba Cveulebrivi ucxo qveyana.24 ase, magaliTad, jef ri goldbergisTvis micemul interviuSi (The Atlantic, 2016 wlis noemberi) is kvlavac daJinebiT amtkicebs, rom aucile-belia saerTaSoriso sistemaSi ruseTis dabruneba da amisa-Tvis saWiroa misi motivebis gaziareba. ori wlis Semdeg is kvlav dasavleTs adanaSaulebs, rom ar aRiara sakuTari Sec-domebi.25 Sesabamisad, damTxveva araa, rom maSin, roca sxva ne-orealisti mkvlevrebi mxolod mianiSneben, henri kisinjeri Riad iTxovs ruseTTan SeTanxmebis miRwevas. misi (neorealis-turi) winadadebaa, rom ruseTis interesebi, legitimuri Tu aralegitimuri, misi Zlierebis klebis fonze mainc unda iyos aRiarebuli. amave dros, ukrainas da sxva postsabWoTa res-publikebs ar aqvT ufleba, rom Zalis uTanasworo statu-sis gamo monaxon ukeTesi politikuri Tu usafrTxoebis ar-qiteqtura, miuxedavad ruseTis agresiuli ganzraxvebis gamo maTi legitimuri SiSisa. am gauazrebel logikas aSS-is yo-

18

fili saxelm wifo mdivani iqamde mihyavs, rom calmxrivi daT-mobebis politikas (SeTanxmeba ruseTis wesebiT) gamosavals uwodebs, xolo ruseTs ki _ partniors am gamosavlis povnaSi.

kisinjeris logikis mcdaroba sakuTriv SeTanxmebebis procesis aRiareba ki ar aris, aramed misi uunaroba aRiaros, rom ar arsebobs ZalTa balansi dasavleTsa da ruseTs Soris, rac iwvevs gaumarTlebel mcdelobas moeqcnen kremls ise, TiTqos is kvlavindeburad sabWoTa kavSirs warmoadgendes funqcionirebad bipolarul saerTaSoriso wesrigSi. civi omis periodSi absoluturad gamarTlebuli iyo rogorc garigebebi, isev gavlenis sferoebis arseboba, Tumca ara yovel Tvis da ara yvelgan (gaixseneT Tundac samxreT vietna-mis bedi Tavad kisinjeris mier miRweuli garigebis Semdeg). kisinjeri, sxva neorealistebis msgavsad, gaurkveveli mize-zebis gamo ar miiCnevs ruseTis mcdelobebs, aRadginos gav-lenis sferoebi, Zireuli rusuli strategiis nawilad iseve, rogorc 1930-iani wlebis bolos evropel politikosebs ar undodaT daejerebinaT hitleris eqspansiuri gegmebis arse-boba: „yirimis aneqsia ar iyo msoflios dapyobisaken gadadg-muli nabiji. es ar iyo hitleris SeWra CexoslovakiaSi“.26 warmoudgenelia damatebiT ra faqtobrivi mtkicebulebebi gaxdeboda sakmarisi neorealisti avtorebisTvis, rom darw-munebuliyvnen ruseTis seriozulobaSi, ukrainelebs rom ar moexerxebinaT rusuli samxedro winsvlis SeCereba qveynis aRmosavleT regionebSi. Tumca, rac ar unda gasaocari iyos, kisinjeri soWis olimpiuri TamaSebisTvis mzadebis proces-sac ki iSveliebs yirimis aneqsiis faqtis „gasaTeTreblad“ da am yvelafers ruseTis progresulobadac ki asaRebs:

„Sesabamisad, aralogikuria, rom olimpiadis daxur-vidan erTi kviris Semdeg putins daekavebina yirimi da daewyo omi ukrainasTan“.27

ucnobia, gamodgeba Tu ara 1936 wlis germaniis olim-piuri TamaSebi sakmaris mtkicebulebad imisaTvis, rom kisin-jerma gadaTqvas Tavisi pozicia. aSkaraa mxolod misi Sexedu-leba _ ruseTi, aSS-is msgavsad, kvlavac miekuTvneba super-saxelmwifoebis banaks. ufro metic, is kidev ufro aRrmavebs Tavis mcdar logikas da amtkicebs, rom ruseTi mniSvnelova-

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nia iranisa da siriis mimarTulebebiT; magram maSin, roca ruseTis TanamSromlobis survili am mimarTulebebiT nuls uaxlovdeba, misi gavlena realurad gadaWarbebuladaa Sefa-se buli, rac ZiriTadad dasavleTis orWofobiT da uniaTo qmedebebiT aris gamowveuli. saboloo jamSi, am yvelafri-dan kisinjeri askvnis, rom ruseTis agresia ukrainis winaaRm-deg sxva araferia, Tu ara „konkretuli SemTxvevis taqti-kuri eskalacia“, romlis ugulebelyofa SeiZleba ruseTTan TanamSromlobidan miRebuli SesaZlo sargeblis gamo.28 faq-tobrivad, yvelaferi zemoTqmuli aSkarad miuTiTebs mzad-yofnaze, rom „neorealisturi bipolaruli stabilurobis“ miznis sasargeblod moxdes e.w. buferuli zonis qveynebis gawirva. miuxedavad xSiri mtkicebisa, rom saWiroa am qvey-nebis damoukideblobis uzrunvelyofa, kisinjers, rogorc bevr sxva neorealist mecniers, ar SeuZlia aRiaros, Tu agresiul da revizionistul ZalasTan dadebuli rodinde-li da romeli garigeba iqneboda saboloo, romelic samu-damod daamyarebda mSvidobasa da stabilurobas. istoriuli gamocdileba gviCvenebs, rom garigebebi xSirad moiTxoven maTi dacvis mtkice nebas, yvela arsebuli saSualebiT. da Tu erTi mxare darwmunebulia, rom meore mxare mzad araa an nak-lebadaa dainteresebuli garigebis SesrulebiT da amas mxo-lod saxis SenarCunebis mizniT akeTebs, garigebis darRveva gardauvalia. hitlerTan dadebuli miunxenis SeTanxmebis Ca-vardna 1938 wels, parizSi dadebuli SeTanxmeba CrdiloeT vietnamTan 1974 wels, 1994 wlis budapeStis memorandumi, ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris dadebuli eqvspunqtiani Se-Tanxmeba 2008 wels da 2014 wlis minskis SeTanxmeba dasavle-Tis mier aRebuli valdebulebebis Sesrulebis nebis ararse-bobisa da meryeobis TvalnaTeli magaliTebia.

amrigad, Tu kisinjeri da sxva neorealistebi mSvido-bis damyarebis erTaderT gamosavlad ruseTTan kidev erTi SeTanxmebis dadebas miiCneven, isini, logikurad, winaswar imazec unda fiqrobdnen, rom dasavleTi mzadaa uzrunvel-yos mSvidoba. garigeba zogadad moiTxovs, rom orive mxare Tanabrad iyos dainteresebuli misi SesrulebiT. Tumca, Tuki neorealistebi miiCneven, rom „buferuli zonis“ qveynebTan dakavSirebiT dasavleTisa da ruseTis interesebs (mniSv-

20

nelobas) Soris aSkara disbalansia ruseTis sasargeblod, maSin maTi logika garigebis Sesaxeb sxva araferia, Tu ara saxifaTo fantazia, Tavidanve ganwiruli warumateblobis-Tvis, romelsac SeiZleba sakmaod saSiSi Sedegebi mohyves. Sesabamisad, Tu Tavad neorealisturi logika obieqturad gamoricxavs ruseTTan SeTanxmebis SesaZleblobas, maSin sru-liad gaugebaria, ratom moiTxoven mainc amas neorealisti mkvlevrebi. neorealistebis midgomis xsenebuli winaaRmde-gobrivi logika, romelic cdilobs gamoasworos saerTaSori-so urTierTobebis struqturiT gamowveuli arastabiluro-ba, realurad gacilebiT saSiSi movlenebis katalizatorad iqceva da imTaviTve gulisxmobs ruseTis sul ufro agresi-ul saqcielze calmxrivi daTmobebis politikiT pasuxs.

daskvna

ukrainis krizisisa da ruseTis sapasuxo qmedebebis ganxilvisas neorealisti avtorebi erTmaneTs hgvanan ro-gorc politikuri moTxovnebis, ise qcevis ZiriTadi princi-pebis aRiarebis TvalsazrisiT. amasTan, es principebi xSirad ewinaaRmdegeba rogorc sakuTriv realizmis logikas, ise em-piriul realobas. gansakuTrebiT winaaRmdegobrivia empiri-uli realoba da faqtebis SerCeviTi gamoyeneba da maTi dama-bneveli interpretacia, rac Tavad neorealistur logikas aqcevs winaaRmdegobrivad.

usafrTxoebis interesebi da axlo periferiis mniSv-neloba, anu igive buferuli da gavlenis zonebis arseboba, centralur adgils ikavebs neorealistur xedvebSi sasi-cocxlo interesebisaTvis Sesabamisi (didi) fasis gadaxdis mzadyofnasTan erTad. Tumca am elementebis mxolod zepi-ri moxsenieba ar qmnis sakmaris empiriul safuZvels da ver CaiTvleba sakmarisad strategiuli da sagareo-politikuri gadawyvetilebebis miRebisas gansxvavebuli Sedegebis asaxs-nelad qveynebis Sida politikisa da iq ZalTa gadanawilebis faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe.

neorealisti mwerlebi bunebrivad cdiloben gver-di auaron saSinao politikis mozaikisa da saxelmwifos politiku ri konstruqciis (bunebis) faqtorebs. maTTvis

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erTaderTi faqtori, romelic saerTaSoriso politikisa-Tvis umniSv ne lo vanesia, aris ZalTa Tanafardoba. Sesabam-isad, Tu dasavleTs ZalTa Tanafardobis mxriv aqvs rogorc absoluturi, ise SedarebiTi upiratesoba (Tan mzardi ten-denciiT), maSin ga ugebaria ratom iTxoven neorealisti av-torebi ruseTTan Ta namSromlobasa da misi interesebis pati-viscemas, rac, sxvas arafers, magram gavlenis sferoebis aRi-arebasa da susti metoqis gadasarCenad xelSewyobas niSnavs. neorealis ti avtorebis SemoTavzebuli winadadebebi aSkarad ugulebel yofs postsabWoTa sivrcis qveynebis TviTgamorkve-vis uflebas, iseve, rogorc uflebas airCion is politikuri da usafrTxoebis sistemebi, romlebic maT saukeTesod miaC-niaT. Spiegel-Tan interviuSi kinisjeri imasac ki moiTxovda, rom ukrainelebisaTvis pirdapir ganecxadebinaT, rom isini ar arian Tavisufali TavianTi momavlis arCevisas.29 ruseT-Tan SeTanxmebis miRwevis paranoiasTan erTad, saerTaSori-so usafrTxoebis SenarCunebis es midgoma iqceva mudmivad calmxrivi daTmobebis reJimSi gadasvlis efeqtur meqaniz-mad. 2016 wlis dekemberSi Independent-i werda kisinjeris „sa-muSao gegmis“ Sesaxeb ukrainasTan dakavSirebiT, sadac axlad-arCeul prezident tramps rCevas aZlevda, rom aRmosavleT ukrainidan ruseTis samxedroebisa da ajanyebulebis gayvanis sanacvlod aSS-s yirimi ruseTis SemadgelobaSi eRiarebina.30 es, Tavis mxriv, naTeli magaliTia imisa, Tu rogor eguebian neorealistebi agresiuli Zalis (ruseTis) sul ufro mzard madas, sTavazoben ra kidev ufro mets kidev erTi mcdelo-bisaTvis, rom kidev erT „saboloo“ SeTanxmebas miaRwion.

aseT midgomasa da motivebs Seusabamo da mcdari logi-ka aqvs. Tumca maTi fesvebi neorealizmis Rrma Teoriul safuZvlebSia saZiebeli, sadac bipolarulobis koncef cias centraluri adgili ukavia. bipolaruli msoflio wesrigi swored im periods warmoadgens, rodesac henri kisinjeris kariera gaifurCqna da mas Tanamdeboba saSualebas aZlevda CarTuliyo mTeli rigi strategiuli garigebebisa da Se-Tanxmebebis miRwevaSi. miuxedavad neorealizmis Teoriuli varaudebisa an kisinjeris subieqturi profesiuli nostal-giisa, mainc gaurkvevelia, Tu ratom iviwyeben neorealisti mecnierebi TavianT racionalistur safuZvlebs da moiTxoven

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ruseTis „gagebas“, anu mis gadaWarbebulad Sefasebas, rac sxva araferia, Tu ara araswori aRqmis kidev erTi forma (rogorc sworad aRniSnavda nial fergiusoni31). yovelive es kidev ufro gaugebaria, roca neorealistebs pasuxi ar aqvT kiTxvaze, Tu ras miiRebs da miiRebs ki saerTod dasavleTi daTmobebis politikis sanacvlod, rasac isini ase uWeren mx-ars da lobireben.

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gamoyenebuli literatura

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Buncombe, Andrew. “Henry Kissinger has ‘Advised Donald Trump to Accept’ Crimea as Part of Russia.” Independent, December 27, 2016. www.independent.co.uk/news/people/henry-kissinger-russia-trump-crimea-advises-latest-ukraine-a7497646.html.

Case, Sean and Klement Anders. “Putin’s Undeclared War 2014, Russian Artillery Strikes against Ukraine.” Bellingcat Investigation, December 21, 2016. www.drive.google.com/file/d/0B0YB7vVr_sJjUnZPR1NqbE95MzA/view.

Davison, Derek. “Bacevich and Mearsheimer on Obama’s Legacy.” Lobe Log (blog), January 17, 2017. www.lobelog.com/bacevich-and-mearsheimer-on-obamas-legacy/.

De Luce, Dan. “If Russia Started a War in the Baltics, NATO Would Lose — Quickly.” Foreign Policy, February 3, 2016. www.foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/03/if-russia-started-a-war-in-the-baltics-nato-would-lose-quickly/.

Dunham, Will. “Kerry Condemns Russia’s ‘Incredible Act of Aggression’ in Ukraine.” Reuters, March 2, 2014, sec. World News. www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-kerry/kerry-condemns-russias-incredible-act-of-aggression-in-ukraine-idUSBREA210DG20140302.

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Kaplan D., Robert. “Why John J. Mearsheimer is Right (About Some Things).” The Atlantic, February 2012. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/01/why-john-j-mearsheimer-is-right-about-some-things/308839/.

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Kissinger, Henry. “Henry Kissinger: To Settle the Ukraine Crisis, Start at the End.” The Washington Post, March 5, 2014. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html?utm_term=.7321654d89c8.

Lessons from Russia’s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Santa Monica Calif.: RAND Corporation. Accessed April 26, 2018. www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1498.html.

Lockie, Alex. “Russia Just Helped North Korea Harden its Nuclear Arsenal against US Cyber Attacks.” Business Insider, October 5, 2017. www.businessinsider.com/russia-helped-north-korea-harden-nuclear-arsenal-us-cyber-attacks-2017-10.

Majumdar, Dave. “This is What a NATO vs. Russia War over the Baltics Would Look Like.” The National Interest, October 24, 2017. www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/what-nato-vs-russia-war-over-the-baltics-would-look-22885.

Mearsheimer, John J. “Defining a New Security Architecture for Europe that Brings Russia in from the Cold.” Military Review, June 2016, 27–31.

———. “Don’t Arm Ukraine.” New York Times, February 8, 2015, sec. Opinion, op-ed contributor. www.nytimes.com/2015/02/09/opinion/dont-arm-ukraine.html.

———. “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions that Provoked Putin.” Foreign Affairs, October 2014. www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fault.

Mearsheimer, John J. and Stephen Walt, “The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy.” Foreign Affairs, August 2016. www.johnmearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/Offshore%20Balancing.pdf.

Myers, Nicholas J. “Holding On: Russian Military Modernization Versus the Declining Force-to-Space Ratio.” Eurasia Daily Monitor 14, no. 160 (December 11, 2017). www.jamestown.org/program/holding-russian-military-modernization-versus-declining-force-space-ratio/.

Newton, Matthew and Donghui Park. “Russia is Now Providing North Korea with Internet: What that Could Mean for Cyber Warfare.” Forbes, December 1, 2017. www.forbes.com/sites/outofasia/2017/12/01/russia-is-now-providing-north-korea-with-internet-what-that-could-mean-for-cyber-warfare/#cb13238386bd.

Putin, Vladimir. “Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation,” April 25, 2005. Transcripts. www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931.

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“Time for Realism and Common Sense on Ukraine.” The Nation, March 24, 2014, sec. Foreign Policy. www.thenation.com/article/time-realism-and-common-sense-ukraine/.

Von Mittelstaedt, Juliane, and Erich Follath. “Do We Achieve World Order through Chaos or Insight?” Spiegel Online. Accessed April 25, 2018. www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-henry-kissinger-on-state-of-global-politics-a-1002073.html.

Walt, Stephen. “The Top 5 Things the Next President Needs to Know about Foreign Policy.” Foreign Policy, December 7, 2015. www.foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/07/the-

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top-5-things-the-next-president-needs-to-know-about-foreign-policy-election/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints.

———. “Why Arming Kiev is a Really, Really Bad Idea.” Foreign Policy, February 2015. www.foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/how-not-to-save-ukraine-arming-kiev-is-a-bad-idea/.

“СОГЛАШЕНИЕ МЕЖДУ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИЕЙ И УКРАИНОЙ ПО BОПРОСАМ ПРЕБЫВАНИЯ ЧЕРНОМОРСКОГО ФЛОТА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ УКРАИНЫ,” April 21, 2010. www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-94/45190.

Endnotes:

1. John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions that Provoked Putin,” Foreign Affairs, October 2014, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-18/why-ukraine-crisis-west-s-fault.

2. Mearsheimer.

3. Thomas L. Friedman, “Foreign Affairs: Now a Word from X,” New York Times, May 2, 1998, www.nytimes.com/1998/05/02/opinion/foreign-affairs-now-a-word-from-x.html.

4. Secretary Kerry: “You just don’t in the twenty-first century behave in nineteenth-century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext.” In Will Dunham, “Kerry Condemns Russia’s ‘Incredible Act of Aggression’ in Ukraine,” Reuters, March 2, 2014, World News, www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-kerry/kerry-condemns-russias-incredible-act-of-aggression-in-ukraine-idUSBREA210DG20140302.

5. “Bilateral Agreement on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine,” (“СОГЛАШЕНИЕ МЕЖДУ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИЕЙ И УКРАИНОЙ ПО BОПРОСАМ ПРЕБЫВАНИЯ ЧЕРНОМОРСКОГО ФЛОТА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ УКРАИНЫ”), April 21, 2010, www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/international_contracts/2_contract/-/storage-viewer/bilateral/page-94/45190; Vladimir Putin, “Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation,” April 25, 2005, Transcripts, www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931.

6. Nicholas J. Myers, “Holding On: Russian Military Modernization Versus the Declining Force-to-Space Ratio,” Eurasia Daily Monitor 14, no. 160 (December 11, 2017), www.jamestown.org/program/holding-russian-military-modernization-versus-declining-force-space-ratio/; Jonas Grätz, “Russia’s Military Reform: Progress and Hurdles,” CSS Analyses in Security Policy, 152, April 2014, www.css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/pdfs/CSSAnalyse152-EN.pdf.

7. Lessons from Russia’s Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine (Santa Monica Calif.: RAND Corporation), accessed April 26, 2018, www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1498.html; Sean Case and Klement Anders, “Putin’s Undeclared War 2014, Russian Artillery Strikes against Ukraine” (Bellingcat Investigation, December 21, 2016), www.drive.google.com/file/d/0B0YB7vVr_sJjUnZPR1NqbE95MzA/view; Franklin

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Holcomb, “The Kremlin’s Irregular Army: Ukrainian Separatist Order of Battle,” RUSSIA AND UKRAINE SECURITY REPORT 3 (Washington D.C.: Institute for the Study of War, September 2017), www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Separatist%20ORBAT%20Holcomb%202017_Final.pdf.

8. David A. Shlapak and Michael W. Johnsons, “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank: War-gaming the Defense of the Baltics” (RAND Corporation), accessed April 25, 2018, www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf; Dave Majumdar, “This Is What a NATO vs. Russia War over the Baltics Would Look Like,” The National Interest, October 24, 2017, www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/what-nato-vs-russia-war-over-the-baltics-would-look-22885; Dan De Luce, “If Russia Started a War in the Baltics, NATO Would Lose — Quickly,” Foreign Policy, February 3, 2016, www.foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/03/if-russia-started-a-war-in-the-baltics-nato-would-lose-quickly/.

9. John Haltiwanger, “How Russia is Helping North Korea Build the Bomb that Could Start World War III,” Newsweek, December 18, 2017, www.newsweek.com/how-russia-helped-north-korea-build-bombs-could-start-world-war-iii-762587; Alex Lockie, “Russia Just Helped North Korea Harden its Nuclear Arsenal against US Cyber Attacks,” Business Insider, October 5, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/russia-helped-north-korea-harden-nuclear-arsenal-us-cyber-attacks-2017-10; Matthew Newton and Donghui Park, “Russia is Now Providing North Korea with Internet: What that Could Mean for Cyber Warfare,” Forbes, December 1, 2017, www.forbes.com/sites/outofasia/2017/12/01/russia-is-now-providing-north-korea-with-internet-what-that-could-mean-for-cyber-warfare/#cb13238386bd.

10. Robert Kaplan, “Why John J. Mearsheimer is Right (About Some Things),” The Atlantic, February 2012, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/01/why-john-j-mearsheimer-is-right-about-some-things/308839/.

11. Christian Hacke, “Der Westen Und Die Ukraine-Krise: Plädoyer Für Realismus,” Bundeszentrae Für Politische Bildung, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, no. Ukraine, Russland, Europa (November 11, 2014).

12. “Time for Realism and Common Sense on Ukraine,” The Nation, March 24, 2014, sec. Foreign Policy, www.thenation.com/article/time-realism-and-common-sense-ukraine/.

13. John J. Mearsheimer, “Don’t Arm Ukraine,” New York Times, February 8, 2015, sec. Opinion, op-ed contributor, www.nytimes.com/2015/02/09/opinion/dont-arm-ukraine.html.

14. Stephen Walt, “Why Arming Kiev is a Really, Really Bad Idea,” Foreign Policy, February 2015, www.foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/how-not-to-save-ukraine-arming-kiev-is-a-bad-idea/.

15. Stephen Walt, “The Top 5 Things the Next President Needs to Know About Foreign Policy,” Foreign Policy, December 7, 2015, www.foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/07/the-top-5-things-the-next-president-needs-to-know-about-foreign-policy-election/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints.

16. John J. Mearsheimer, “Defining a New Security Architecture for Europe That Brings Russia in From the Cold,” Military Review, June 2016, 28.

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17. Mearsheimer, p. 28.

18. John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, “The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, August 2016, 82, www.johnmearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/Offshore%20Balancing.pdf.

19. Mearsheimer and Walt, p. 82.

20. “A Clash of National Interests?” (Liberty Conference for International Students, Charles Koch Institute, 2016), www.charleskochinstitute.org/blog/clash-national-interests/.

21. “A Clash of National Interests?”

22. Derek Davison, “Bacevich and Mearsheimer on Obama’s Legacy,” Lobe Log (blog), January 17, 2017, www.lobelog.com/bacevich-and-mearsheimer-on-obamas-legacy/.

23. Henry Kissinger, “Henry Kissinger: To Settle the Ukraine Crisis, Start at the End,” The Washington Post, March 5, 2014, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html?utm_term=.7321654d89c8; Jeffrey Goldberg, “World Chaos and World Order: Conversations with Henry Kissinger,” The Atlantic, November 10, 2016, www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/11/kissinger-order-and-chaos/506876/; Juliane Von Mittelstaedt and Erich Follath, “Do We Achieve World Order through Chaos or Insight?,” Spiegel Online, accessed April 25, 2018, www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-henry-kissinger-on-state-of-global-politics-a-1002073.html; Andrew Buncombe, “Henry Kissinger has ‘Advised Donald Trump to Accept’ Crimea as Part of Russia,” Independent, December 27, 2016, www.independent.co.uk/news/people/henry-kissinger-russia-trump-crimea-advises-latest-ukraine-a7497646.html.

24. Kissinger, “Henry Kissinger: To Settle the Ukraine Crisis, Start at the End.”

25. Goldberg, “World Chaos and World Order: Conversations with Henry Kissinger;” Von Mittelstaedt and Follath, “Do We Achieve World Order through Chaos or Insight?”

26. Von Mittelstaedt and Follath, “Do We Achieve World Order tthrough Chaos or Insight?”

27. Von Mittelstaedt and Follath.

28. Von Mittelstaedt and Follath.

29. Von Mittelstaedt and Follath.

30. Buncombe, “Henry Kissinger has ‘Advised Donald Trump to Accept’ Crimea as Part of Russia.”

31. Niall Fergusson, “The Russian Question,” Foreign Policy, December 23, 2016, www.foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/23/the-russian-question-putin-trump-bush-obama-kissinger/.