estudio de caso 1
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probabilidadTRANSCRIPT
ESTUDIO DE CASO 1
CASOS PRESENTADOS, APELADOS Y REVOCADOS EN LOS TRIBUNALES DEL CONDADO DE HAMILTON
INFORME A PRESENTAR: Prepare un informe con las calificaciones de los jueces. Incluya tambin un anlisis de la probabilidad de la apelacin y la revocacin de casos en los tres tribunales. Como mnimo, su informe debe incluir lo siguiente:1. La probabilidad de casos que se apelan y revocan en los tres tribunales2. La probabilidad de que se apele un caso, por cada juez 3. La probabilidad de que se revoque un caso, por cada juez 4. La probabilidad de una revocacin dada una apelacin, por cada juez5. Clasifique a los jueces dentro de cada tribunal. Establezca los criterios que utiliz y d las razones de su eleccin
Solucin
1. La probabilidad de casos que se apelan y revocan en los tres tribunales
Tribunal Penal
Tribunal de Familia
Tribunal Civil
2. La probabilidad de que se apele un caso, por cada juez.Juez Tribunal PenalCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosProbabilidad de apelar el caso
Ralph Winkler3089886P(a)=88/30890,02848818
Timothy Hogan1954607P(a)=60/19540,03070624
Patrick Dinkelacker1258448P(a)=44/12580,03497615
Thomas Crush337211910P(a)=119/33720,03529063
Arthur Ney, Jr.321912514P(a)=125/32190,03883194
William Morrissey303212122P(a)=121/30320,03990765
William Mathews22649118P(a)=91/22640,04019435
Thomas Nurre30001216P(a)=121/30000,04033333
Ann Marie Tracey314112713P(a)=127/31410,04043298
Robert Kraft31381277P(a)=127/31380,04047164
Richard Niehaus335313716P(a)=137/33530,04085893
John OConnor296912912P(a)=129/29690,04344897
Norbert Nadel295913120P(a)=131/29590,04427171
Fred Cartolano303713712P(a)=137/30370,04511031
Robert Ruehlman320514518P(a)=145/32050,04524181
J. Howard Sundermann9556010P(a)=60/9550,06282723
total439451762199
Juez Tribunalde FamiliaCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosProbabilidad de apelar el caso
Ronald Panioto12970323P(a)=32/129700,00246723
Penelope Cunningham272971P(a)=7/27290,00256504
Patrick Dinkelacker6001194P(a)=19/60010,00316614
Deborah Gaines8799489P(a)=48/87990,00545517
total3049910617
Juez Tribunal CivilCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosProbabilidad de apelar el caso
Karla Grady525360P(a)=6/52530,0011422
John A. West279742P(a)=4/27970,0014301
Deidra Hair253250P(a)=5/25320,00197472
James Patrick Kenney279861P(a)=6/27980,00214439
Mark Painter223973P(a)=7/22390,0031264
Dennis Helmick7900295P(a)=29/79000,00367089
David Stockdale5371224P(a)=22/53710,00409607
Melba Marsh8219347P(a)=34/82190,00413676
Beth Mattingly2971131P(a)=13/29710,00437563
Nadine Allen7812346P(a)=34/78120,00435228
William Mallory8277389P(a)=38/82770,00459104
Timothy Black7954416P(a)=41/79540,00515464
Jack Rosen77904113P(a)=41/77900,00526316
Joseph Luebbers4698258P(a)=25/46980,00532141
David Davis7736435P(a)=43/77360,00555843
Timothy Hogan2308132P(a)=13/23080,00563258
Albert Mestemaker4975289P(a)=28/49750,00562814
Mark Schweikert5403336P(a)=33/54030,00610772
Leslie Isaiah Gaines52823513P(a)=38/52820,00662628
Mike Allen6149434P(a)=43/61490,00699301
total108464500104
3. La probabilidad de que se revoque un caso, por cada juez.Juez Tribunal PenalCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosProbabilidad de revocar el caso
Ralph Winkler3089886P(r)=6/30890,00194238
Timothy Hogan1954607P(r)=7/19540,0035824
Patrick Dinkelacker1258448P(r)=8/12580,0063593
Thomas Crush337211910P(r)=10/33720,0029656
Arthur Ney, Jr.321912514P(r)=14/32190,00434918
William Morrissey303212122P(r)=22/30320,00725594
William Mathews22649118P(r)=18/22640,00795053
Thomas Nurre30001216P(r)=6/30000,002
Ann Marie Tracey314112713P(r)=13/31410,00413881
Robert Kraft31381277P(r)=7/31380,00223072
Richard Niehaus335313716P(r)=16/33530,00477185
John OConnor296912912P(r)=12/29690,00404176
Norbert Nadel295913120P(r)=20/29590,00675904
Fred Cartolano303713712P(r)=12/30370,00395127
Robert Ruehlman320514518P(r)=18/32050,00561622
J. Howard Sundermann9556010P(r)=10/9550,0104712
total439451762199
Juez Tribunalde FamiliaCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosProbabilidad de revocar el caso
Ronald Panioto12970323P(r)=3/129700,0002313
Penelope Cunningham272971P(r)=1/27290,00036643
Patrick Dinkelacker6001194P(r)=4/60010,00066656
Deborah Gaines8799489P(r)=9/87990,00102284
total3049910617
Juez Tribunal CivilCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosProbabilidad de revocar el caso
Karla Grady5253600
John A. West279742P(r)=2/27970,00071505
Deidra Hair2532500
James Patrick Kenney279861P(r)=1/27980,0003574
Mark Painter223973P(r)=7/22390,00133988
Dennis Helmick7900295P(r)=5/79000,00063291
David Stockdale5371224P(r)= 4/53710,00074474
Melba Marsh8219347P(r)=7/82190,00085169
Beth Mattingly2971131P(r)=1/29710,00033659
Nadine Allen7812346P(r)=6/78120,00076805
William Mallory8277389P(r)=9/82770,00108735
Timothy Black7954416P(r)=6/79540,00075434
Jack Rosen77904113P(r)=13/77900,00166881
Joseph Luebbers4698258P(r)=8/46980,00170285
David Davis7736435P(r)=5/77360,00064633
Timothy Hogan2308132P(r)=2/23080,00086655
Albert Mestemaker4975289P(r)=9/49750,00180905
Mark Schweikert5403336P(r)=6/54030,00111049
Leslie Isaiah Gaines52823513P(r)=13/52820,00246119
Mike Allen6149434P(r)=4/61490,00065051
total108464500104
4. La probabilidad de una revocacin dada una apelacin, por cada juez.Juez Tribunal PenalCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosLa probabilidad de una revocacin dada una apelacin
Ralph Winkler3089886P(r/a)=0.019/0.02850,0667
Timothy Hogan1954607P(r/a)=0.0036/0.3070,1173
Patrick Dinkelacker1258448P(r/a)=0.064/0.0350,1828
Thomas Crush337211910P(r/a)=0.003/0.03530,0849
Arthur Ney, Jr.321912514P(r/a)=0.0043/0.03880,111
William Morrissey303212122P(r/a)=0.0073/0.03990,1829
William Mathews22649118P(r/a)=0.008/0.04020,199
Thomas Nurre30001216P(r/a)=0.002/0.04030,0496
Ann Marie Tracey314112713P(r/a)=0.0041/0.04040,1014
Robert Kraft31381277P(r/a)=0.0022/0.04050,0543
Richard Niehaus335313716P(r/a)=0.0048/0.04090,1173
John OConnor296912912P(r/a)=0.004/0.04340,0921
Norbert Nadel295913120P(r/a)=0.0068/0.04430,1534
Fred Cartolano303713712P(r/a)=0.004/0.04510,0884
Robert Ruehlman320514518P(r/a)=0.0056/0.04520,1238
J. Howard Sundermann9556010P(r/a)=0.0105/0.06280,1671
total439451762199
Juez Tribunalde FamiliaCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosLa probabilidad de una revocacin dada una apela
Ronald Panioto12970323P(r/a)=0.0002/0.020,0833
Penelope Cunningham272971P(r/a)=0.0004/0.00260,1538
Patrick Dinkelacker6001194P(r/a)=0.0007/0.00320,2187
Deborah Gaines8799489P(r/a)=0.001/0.00550,1818
total3049910617
Juez Tribunal CivilCasos PresentadosCasos ApeladosCasos RevoacdosLa probabilidad de una revocacin dada una apela
Karla Grady5253600
John A. West279742P(r/a)=0.0007/0.00140,5
Deidra Hair2532500
James Patrick Kenney279861P(r/a)=0.0004/0.00210,1904
Mark Painter223973P(r/a)=0.0013/0.00310,4193
Dennis Helmick7900295P(r/a)=0.0006/0.00370,1621
David Stockdale5371224P(r/a)=0.0007/0.00410,1707
Melba Marsh8219347P(r/a)=.0009/0.00410,2195
Beth Mattingly2971131P(r/a)=0.0003/0.00440,0681
Nadine Allen7812346P(r/a)=0.0008/0.00440,1818
William Mallory8277389P(r/a)=0.0011/0.00460,2391
Timothy Black7954416P(r/a)=0.0008/0.00520,1538
Jack Rosen77904113P(r/a)=0.0017/0.00530,3207
Joseph Luebbers4698258P(r/a)=0.0017/0.00530,3207
David Davis7736435P(r/a)=0.0006/0.0560,1071
Timothy Hogan2308132P(r/a)=0.0009/0.00560,1607
Albert Mestemaker4975289P(r/a)=0.0018/0.00560,3214
Mark Schweikert5403336P(r/a)=0.0011/0.00610,1803
Leslie Isaiah Gaines52823513P(r/a)=0.0025/0.00660,3787
Mike Allen6149434P(r/a)=0.0007/0.0070,1
total108464500104
5. Clasifique a los jueces dentro de cada tribunal. Establezca los criterios que utiliz y d las razones de su eleccinSe clasificaron dependiendo del porcentaje o probabilidad de menor a mayor valor, evidenciando el desempeo de cada uno de ellos en determinado tribunal.