ukraine gap analysis july 2013 · july 2013. albania bosnia and herz macedonia serbia montenegro...
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Ukraine Gap Analysis
USAIDE&E Bureau
Strategic Planning and Analysis DivisionJuly 2013
Albania
Bosnia and Herz
Macedonia
Serbia
Montenegro
Kosovo
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.Estonia
PolandLatviaLithuania
HungarySlovakia
Slovenia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Ukraine
Russia
MoldovaKazakhstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 most advanced. Freedom House, Nations in Transit (June 2013), & EBRD, Transition Report 2012 (November 2012).
Economic and Democratic Reforms, 2012
Democratic Reforms
Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia Threshold, 2006
Econ
omic Reforms
Figure 1
E&E Graduates
Balkans
E&E Eurasia
CARs
Economic Reforms, 2012Electoral
Process, 3.0
Civil Society, 3.8
Independent Media, 3.0
National Governance ,
1.8Local
Governance, 2.0
Rule of Law, 1.7
Corruption, 1.7
1
2
3
4
5
Democratic Reforms, 2012
Economic Performance, 2008‐2010
UkraineSmall‐scale Privatization,
4.0 Trade and Foreign
Exchange, 4.0
Price Liberalization,
4.0
Large‐scale Privatization,
3.0Enterprise
Restructuring, 2.3
Competition Policy, 2.3
Banking Reform, 2.7
Non‐bank Financial
Reform, 2.3
Infrastructure Reform, 2.6
1
2
3
4
5
Figure 2
GDP Growth, 2.5
Unemployment, 4.2
Macro Stability, 2.4
FDI, 2.6
Export Share & Composition,
2.8Services as % GDP, 4.0
Private Sector Share of GDP,
3.3
Energy Security, 2.0
Environmental Sustainability,
2.2
Income Inequality, 5.0
1
2
3
4
5
Country Graduates
Country graduates = Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
Counter‐Terrorism,
3.5
WMD, 5.0
Stabilization, 3.1
Counter Narcotics,
2.5
Trans‐national Crime, 2.4
Conflict Mitigation,
3.5
1
2
3
4
5
Ukraine
Peace and Security, 2009‐2010
GNI per capita, 2.0
Under‐5 Mortality Rate,
4.0
Life Expectancy, 1.8
Environmental Health, 4.1
TB Incidence, 2.8
Public Exp. Health, 2.8
Public Exp. Education , 4.3
Education Gaps, 4.0
Gender Inequality, 3.2
1
2
3
4
5
Human Capital, 2008‐2010
Country Graduates
Figure 3
Country graduates = Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
UkraineEconomic and Democratic Reforms
Actual 1998‐2012 Projected 2013‐2017
The projections are extrapolations from the average annual trends from 2008‐2012. The economic reform data are drawn from the EBRD’s annual Transition Report, and the democratic reform data are drawn from Freedom House’s annual Nations in Transit.
Figure 4
Romania-Bulgaria-Croatia 2006 Threshold
Figure 5
USAID MCP system Data drawn from Freedom House, Nations in Transit series and Freedom in the World series. The E&E Graduates (n=11) consist of Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia. The Balkans (n=6): Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. E&E Eurasia (n=7): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. The Central Asian Republics or the CARs (n=5): Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
1 to 5 Scale
Democratic Reforms in Eastern Europe & Eurasia
1
2
3
4
5
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CARs
E&E Eurasia
Balkans
E&E Graduates
Russia
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Kosovo
Slovakia
Turkmenistan
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1 to 5 Scale
Democracy and Governance in Select Countries from 1996 ‐2012
Scores calibrated on MCP 1 to 5 scale. Drawn primarily from Freedom House, Nations in Transit; 2012 data drawn from Freedom in the World trends.
Figure 6
1 to 5 Scale
Democracy and Governance in Ukraine from 1996‐2012Figure 7
Scores for anti‐corruption begin in 1998. Scores calibrated on MCP 1 to 5 scale. Source: Freedom House, Nations in Transit.
Anti‐CorruptionRule of Law
Independent Media
Electoral Process
Civil Society
Governance
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Afghanistan
TurkmenistanHaitiLaos
YemenPapua New Guinea
Congo RepublicNepal
HondurasNicaraguaMauritania
EcuadorEthiopiaArmeniaMexicoBenin
MoldovaSuriname
El SalvadorSerbia
MontenegroBrazil
Saudi ArabiaOmanLatvia
SeychellesHungaryPoland
Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesBotswana
AustriaChile
BelgiumIceland
SwitzerlandNew Zealand
Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index, 2012. Scores are based from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean).
Corruption Perceptions IndexFigure 8
Ukraine
Macroeconomic Reforms
Drawn from the EBRD Transition Report (2012 and earlier versions). The E&E Graduates (n=11) consist of Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia. The Balkans (n=6): Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. E&E Eurasia (n=7): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. The Central Asian Republics or the CARs (n=5): Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Figure 9
E&E Graduates
Balkans
E&E Eurasia
CARs
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 to 5 Scale
Macroeconomic Reforms in E&E Eurasia
Georgia
Russia
MoldovaUkraine
Azerbaijan
Belarus
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Drawn from the EBRD Transition Report (2012 and earlier editions).
Figure 101 to 5 Scale
Business Environment in 2011
World Bank, Doing Business 2012 (October 2011). 183 countries are included in the analysis. The business environment is gauged based on 10 aspects: starting a business; dealing with construction; hiring and firing workers; registering a property; getting credit; protecting investors; paying taxes; trading across borders; enforcing contracts; and closing a business.
Rank
Figure 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Singapore
Ireland
Geo
rgia
Latvia
Maced
onia
Estonia
Lithuania
Portugal
Sloven
iaKazakhstan
Slovakia
Hungary
Armen
iaMon
tene
gro
Bulgaria
Poland
Czech Re
pAzerbaijan
Belarus
Kyrgyzstan
Romania
Croatia
Moldo
vaAlbania
Serbia
Jordan
El Salvado
rKo
sovo
Russia
Bosnia & Herz.
Nigeria
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Afghanistan
Uzbekistan
Chad
Moldova
Percen
tile Ra
nk
World Bank, Doing Business 2012 (October 2011). The analysis is based on 10 aspects: starting a business; dealing with construction; hiring and firing workers; registering a property; getting credit; protecting investors; paying taxes ; trading across borders; enforcing contracts; and closing a business.
Better Enviro
nmen
tMicroeconomic Reforms: The Business
Environment in E&E Eurasia
Figure 12
Belarus
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Moldova
Ukraine
Russia
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Microeconomic Reforms vs. Macroeconomic Reforms
Business Environment
Macroeconomic Reforms
(Microeconomic Reforms)
World Bank, Doing Business 2012 and EBRD Transition Report 2011.
Albania
Armenia
AzerbaijanBelarus
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
EstoniaGeorgia
HungaryKazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Latvia
LithuaniaMacedonia
Moldova
Montenegro
Poland
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
TajikistanUkraine
Uzbekistan
Kosovo
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
45⁰
Figure 13
E&E Graduates
Balkans
E&E Eurasia
CARs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Economic Structural Change: Private Sector Share of GDP
% of GDP
EBRD, Transition Report (2011 and earlier editions). The E&E Graduates are Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia. The Balkans are Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The E&E Eurasia countries are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. The Central Asian Republics are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Figure 14
The Lagging Economies in Economic Structural Change: Private Sector Share of GDP
% of GDP
EBRD, Transition Report (2011 and earlier editions). The lagging economies from among the Balkans (n=6) and the E&E Eurasian countries (n=7).
Figure 15
Graduates
Ukraine
Bosnia‐Herz
Serbia
CARs
Belarus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Fig. 16: Innovation: R&D Expenditures, Public and Private, 2005‐2010
% of GDP
I. Gill and M. Raiser, Golden Growth: Restoring the Luster of the European Economic Model, World Bank (2012).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1995 2009
Labor productivity in E&E vs. EU‐15(constant 2005 US$, thousands)
Figure 17
I. Gill and M. Raiser, Golden Growth: Restoring the Luster of the European Economic Model, World Bank (2012).
Tertiary Education Attainment
% of populationages 30‐34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EU15 E&E Graduates Serbia Macedonia Russia Armenia Ukraine
Figure 18
Figure 19
EBRD, Transition Report (2012).
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1989
=100
Real GDP as a % of 1989 GDP in Georgia vs. E&E Eurasia Countries
I. Efficient but Dependent II. Inefficient and Dependent
IV. Efficient and IndependentIII. Inefficient but Independent
Energy Security, 2010
Energy Imports(Net % of energy
use)
GDP per unit of energy use
Global Average
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2011).
Azer (5.5, ‐338) Turk (1.7, ‐265)
Alb
BH
BulCr
Mac
RomSrb
CzEst
HunLat Lth
Pol
Slk
Sln
Arm
Bel
Geo
Kyr
Mol
Rus
Taj Ukr
Uzb
USA
Argentina
Mexico
Denmark
Costa Rica
‐100
‐75
‐50
‐25
0
25
50
75
100
1234567891011
Australia (6.7, ‐119) Kaz (2.3, ‐109)
Figure 20
Years a
t birth
Life Expectancy at Birth
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2011).
Figure 21
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Russia
UkraineMoldova
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Life Expectancy Gender Gap
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Years
Figure 22
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2012).
Male and Female Adult Mortality Rates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Male Female
Figure 23
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2012).
Per 1
,000
UNAIDS Global Report, 2012; AIDS info dataset.
Estonia
Latvia
Belarus
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percen
tage
of P
opulation
Adult HIV Prevalence Rates, 2000 ‐ 2011Figure 24