taller sequía tucuman 2016

IDMP - GWP project in CEE

Andreja Sušnik, ARSO – DMCSEE Sabina Bokal, GWPTetiana Adamenko, Ukraine

Training course on the use of satellite products for drought monitoring and agro-meteorological applications, 16-20 May, 2016

Drought Management measures in Central and Eastern Europe May 20162 www.gwpcee.org

The Global Water Partnership's vision is for a water secure world

Our mission is to support the sustainable development and management of water resources at all levels

13 Regional Water Partnerships85 Country Water Partnerships3000+ Partners in 178 countries


FoodEcosystems Transboundary

Energy Climate Change Urbanisation

GWP Thematic Approach


• Population of 152 million people, a quarter of all Europeans

• Total area of over 2.03 million km2 • 12 countries in Baltic and Danube regions,

160 Partner organizations • Founded in 1998• Baltic region: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and

Poland • Danube region: Bulgaria, Hungary, the

Czech Republic, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine

Facts and figures


Integrated Drought Management Programme

Increase the capacity of the CEE region to adapt to climatic variability by enhancing resilience to drought.

variability and change in precipitationincreased frequency of extreme weather events in the futurewell developed meteorological and hydrological monitoring but not as a support for decision makerslimited sharing of information among countrieslack of political will to solve the problem – drought was not considered a relevant issue


Cooperation with national governments

Solutions:cooperation with national governments to help them to incorporate drought management issues into their national programs, policies and plans

Preparation of the guidance document

Main challenges: Lack of political will to solve the problem – drought was not considered as a relevant issue.

Gaps in the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD).

National Consultation Dialogues – acceptance at the policy level

Guidelines for preparation of the Drought Management Plans within RBMP


National Consultation Dialogues

1st round – setting the stage review of the current status 2nd round – how to overcome gaps in the current

drought management; developing Guidelines; national experiences and examples

3rd round – action plan/update for preparation of the Drought Management Plan

Parts of the Drought Management Plan

Process of preparation of the Guidelines


Step-by-step guidance towards Drought Management Plan

From crisis management to drought risk reduction


Translation of the Guidelines into 7 national languagesHungarian, Lithuanian, Romania, Ukrainian

Slovakian, Slovenian and Poland version – in progress


• Natural Small Water Retention Measures

• Increasing soil water holding capacity

• Drought impact on forest ecosystems

• Remote sensing agricultural drought monitoring methods

• Updating agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting in Ukraine & Moldova

Testing and describing new approaches towards proactive drought management

focusing on agricultural sector as one of the most vulnerable ones in the region


Natural Small Water Retention Measuresadaptive measure which serves to adjust to extreme

climate variability

it helps retain water in the land during wet periods and make this water more available for ecosystems, agriculture and forestry during drought periods

& slows down flood waves during flood periods

• improve the water conditions in the river basin• increase landscape resilience against the effects of

climate• preserve biodiversity of habitats that are strongly

related to water resources, including habitats and species of a great natural value


Guidelines on Natural Small Water Retention Measures

• What are technical and non-technical measures to increase water retention?

• How to choose the catchment for the retention measures?

• How can we evaluate the results of NSWRM in terms of flood protection, drought mitigation, and biodiversity increase?

• How can we incorporate the natural water retention measures in the RBMP, FPMP and DMP?

GIS based tool for identifying the areas whichare most suitable for the NSWRMs


Guidelines on Natural Small Water Retention Measures

CASE STUDIESLessons learnt from implemented projects in Poland,Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia including bestexamples of combined effects and involvement ofstakeholders


Agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting in Ukraine and Moldova

• Working with rural authorities, farmers, local stakeholders• Upgrading of forecasting models for identification of crop yield

losses caused by droughts• Guide on best practices on soil conservation


Regional cooperation – continuation of the IDMP CEE

DRiDanubeDrought Risk in the Danube Region

• 3 November 2015 – Submitted Expression of Interest

• 547 EoI submitted & assessed • March 2016 accepted for 2nd step

(80 projects)• Waiting for results


www.gwp.org/GWP-CEE/IDMPCEE

www.gwp.org/GWP-CEE

http://www.droughtmanagement.info/


Agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting in Ukraine and Moldova

IDMP CEE Experience from demo projects

Tetiana AdemenkoChief of agrometeorological dept.

UHMC


Yields of main agricultural crops in Ukraine during the severe droughts of the 21st century (2003, 2007) and in the wet years (2008, 2013, 2014).

The heaviest losses from droughts are from 30% up to total loss of the crop. In 2003 and 2007 (spring drought)s losses in grain production in Ukraine amounted to more than 3 bln. Euro.


Monitoring of droughts in Ukraine is carried out by hydrometeorological stations

Collection and automated processing of information Generalization, systematization, analysis, use in drought models

Preparing expert opinions and recommendations Informing consumers of different levels


Collection and processing of agrometeorological information in Ukraine

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological CenterControl synthesis, the use of service

Meteorological station area (188/135)Meteorological, phenological observations,

identification of stocks of productive moisture in the soil, the transfer to a Regional Hydrometeorological Centre

Regional Hydrometeorological Centre (25)Control, synthesis, transfer to Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center

, the use of service


Calculation on the model of a possible reduction in yield,%May-June 2012Wheat Barley


Agroclimatic

zones From the total number of 189 weather stations135 stations provide the constant monitoring of the main agricultural crops

Marshy-over norm moisture zone

Forest-steppe-normal moiture zone

Steppe- lower moisture zoneMarshy-over norm moisture zoneForest-steppe-normal moiture zone; Steppe- lower moisture zone


Intensification of aridityExceeding of the absolute maximums of air temperatures

(42)


Increasing the number of days since a very high temperature (above 30 ° C) during the period 2006-2015


The annual rainfall in Ukraine, mm Оptimum – 700 мм

Norm - 578 мм 2011-2015 - 544 мм

Drought Management measures in Central and Eastern Europe May 201627 www.gwpcee.orgDrought 2007. May-June Drought 2010. July-August


Drought 2015. June-August


As part of the pilot project of the Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern Europe:

• The agroclimatic zoning of the territory of Ukraine and the Dniester Basin was updated, drought increasing risk maps were made.

• The guidelines for drought management plans was adapted and published in the Ukrainian language.

• The drought indices were reviewed. The calculation of the SPI was introduced in operational practice.

• The "automated assessment of drought in Ukraine" model was upgraded, which increased the accuracy of the estimates of losses of winter wheat and spring barley.

Мониторинг и прогноз с/х засух в Украине и Молдове


HTCs (ГТК) Aridity

<0.7 very arid

0.71-1 moderately arid

1.01-1.2 slightly humid

1.21-1.8 sufficiently humid

> 1.81 humid

New agroclimatic zoning


SPI June-August 2015


SPI November 2015 - April 2016


The main elements of the Drought Management Plan -indicators andthresholds of droughts; early warning system; measures to mitigate climate change; organisational arrangements


Updating data estimates and forecasting tools to support the management and monitoring of droughts

• Drought risk maps for the agro-sector of Ukraine and the Dniester River basin

Agroclimatic zoning for May- September (1961-2013) according to Selyaninov's hydrothermal coefficients



The problem – guiding approach to drought management

Reactive, crisis management based - events and actions after oncoming of droughtour task at the present stage is to go to

Proactive, based on the drought risk reduction management - Measures to prevent and reduce the impact of drought developed in advance in the Plan of drought management (PDM)


Сотрудничество с национальными правительствами

Decisions::Cooperation with Governments in the implementation of drought management plans in a national planningПодготовка Руководств по Планам управления засухами

Main challenges::

Lack of political will - the drought is not considered as a problem..

Problems with implementation of the Framework Water Directive.

National Dialogues - acceptability on the level of politicians

Drought management plans as part of the river basin management plan

Cooperation with national governments



• Work with rural athorities, farmers, local stakeholders• Updating predictive models for the identification of crop losses caused by

drought

• Guidance on best practice of soil conservation

Мonitoring and forecast droughts in agriculture


Дякую за увагу !СПАСИБО! Thank you

taller sequía tucuman 2016

Presentations & Public Speaking