USANDO LA DISTRIBUCION DE PROBABILIDAD QUE SE AJUSTA A LOS DATOS PARA ESTE CASO LA DE PEARSON III, SE PROCEDE DETERMINAR LASINTENSIDADES DE LLUVIA PARA PERIODOS DE CORTA DURACION, CON LAS ECUACIONES DE CHEN Y BELL,VEASE COMO SE CALCULO

lluvias acumuladas en 24 h

Tr (Años)Pearson III R= 0.34

Phtenemos la ecuacion de chen

2 77.04560635 121.559243

10 148.9522525 192.18556250 224.431895

100 251.676028250 288.924562500 301.340741

1000 307.5488310000 313.1361120000 313.446515 esta ecuaciones se ajustaron ya qque el periodo de retorno estimado se hizo con la distribucion Pearson. Usaremos esas precipitacion

de la figura. Se determinan los valores de a,b y c con la R en %

a= 18.15 Entonces de la ecuacion de chen se tiene:

b= 5.77c= 0.69

Tr (Años)Pearson III Duración

Ph 5 102 77.0456063 7.91193061 12.16290835 121.559243 12.4831037 19.190113410 148.95225 15.2961334 23.514547425 192.185562 19.7358279 30.339632350 224.431895 23.047253 35.4302431

100 251.676028 25.8449944 39.7311747PRECIPITACIONES 250 288.924562 29.6701032 45.6114647

500 301.340741 30.9451394 47.57156141000 307.54883 31.5826576 48.5516098

10000 313.13611 32.1564239 49.433653320000 313.446515 32.1882998 49.4826557

Tr (Años)Pearson III Duración

Ph 5 102 77.0456063 94.9431673 72.97744985 121.559243 149.797245 115.14068110 148.95225 183.5536 141.08728425 192.185562 236.829935 182.03779450 224.431895 276.567036 212.581459

INTENSIDADES 100 251.676028 310.139933 238.387048250 288.924562 356.041238 273.668788500 301.340741 371.341673 285.429369

1000 307.54883 378.991891 291.30965910000 313.13611 385.877086 296.6019220000 313.446515 386.259597 296.895934

DURACIÓN (INTENSIDADES EN mm/hr)5 min 10 min 20 min 30 min 60 min 120 min 240 min

10 185 150 123 108 77 43 2320 207 166 137 121 88 50 2725 213 171 141 125 92 52 2850 235 187 155 138 103 58 32

100 256 203 168 151 114 64 35

Tr (AÑOS)

USANDO LA DISTRIBUCION DE PROBABILIDAD QUE SE AJUSTA A LOS DATOS PARA ESTE CASO LA DE PEARSON III, SE PROCEDE DETERMINAR LASINTENSIDADES DE LLUVIA PARA PERIODOS DE CORTA DURACION, CON LAS ECUACIONES DE CHEN Y BELL,VEASE COMO SE CALCULO

0.35

esta ecuaciones se ajustaron ya qque el periodo de retorno estimado se hizo con la distribucion Pearson. Usaremos esas precipitacion

de la figura. Se determinan los valores de a,b y c con la R en % o con las ecuaciones

Entonces de la ecuacion de chen se tiene:

Duración15 20 30 45 60 120 240

15.0869474 17.3341419 20.7364537 24.427829 27.2429002 34.8348845 43.882122223.8035366 27.3490634 32.7170846 38.5411777 42.982676 54.9609821 69.235324629.1675915 33.512092 40.0897805 47.2263154 52.6686918 67.346273 84.837295237.6334694 43.2389588 51.725818 60.9337283 67.9557516 86.8934929 109.46127543.9478949 50.4939153 60.4047632 71.1576458 79.3578768 101.473134 127.82750849.2827973 56.6234492 67.7373902 79.7955817 88.9912513 113.791114 143.34468556.5767458 65.0038283 77.7626538 91.6054808 102.162127 130.632417 164.55997459.008062 67.797288 81.1044084 95.5421139 106.552419 136.246184 171.631737

60.2237201 69.1940178 82.7752857 97.5104304 108.747565 139.053068 175.16761861.3178124 70.4510747 84.2790752 99.2819153 110.723197 141.579264 178.34991161.3785953 70.5209112 84.3626191 99.3803311 110.832954 141.719608 178.526705

Duración15 20 30 45 60 120 240

60.3477897 52.0024257 41.4729074 32.5704387 27.2429002 17.4174422 10.970530595.2141464 82.0471901 65.4341691 51.388237 42.982676 27.4804911 17.3088311116.670366 100.536276 80.179561 62.9684205 52.6686918 33.6731365 21.2093238150.533878 129.716876 103.451636 81.2449711 67.9557516 43.4467464 27.3653188175.791579 151.481746 120.809526 94.8768611 79.3578768 50.7365671 31.956877197.131189 169.870348 135.47478 106.394109 88.9912513 56.8955568 35.8361713226.306983 195.011485 155.525308 122.140641 102.162127 65.3162084 41.1399934236.032248 203.391864 162.208817 127.389485 106.552419 68.1230922 42.9079341240.89488 207.582054 165.550571 130.013907 108.747565 69.5265342 43.7919045

245.271249 211.353224 168.55815 132.375887 110.723197 70.7896319 44.5874778245.514381 211.562734 168.725238 132.507108 110.832954 70.859804 44.6316763

DURACIÓN (INTENSIDADES EN mm/hr)5 min 10 min 20 min 30 min 60 min 120 min 240 min

10 185 150 123 108 77 43 2320 207 166 137 121 88 50 2725 213 171 141 125 92 52 2850 235 187 155 138 103 58 32

100 256 203 168 151 114 64 35

Tr (AÑOS)

USANDO LA DISTRIBUCION DE PROBABILIDAD QUE SE AJUSTA A LOS DATOS PARA ESTE CASO LA DE PEARSON III, SE PROCEDE DETERMINAR LAS

Ecuacion de bell

esta ecuaciones se ajustaron ya qque el periodo de retorno estimado se hizo con la distribucion Pearson. Usaremos esas precipitacion

Tr (Años)Pearson III

Ph 1hr (chen)2 27.245 42.9810 52.6725 67.9650 79.36

100 88.99250 102.16500 106.55

1000 108.7510000 110.7220000 110.83

Tr (Años)Pearson III

Ph 1hr (chen)2 27.245 42.9810 52.6725 67.9650 79.36

100 88.99250 102.16500 106.55

1000 108.7510000 110.7220000 110.83

16438.7062497 280.66572461.0690556 442.82230574.8307823 542.6109796.5503771 700.103516112.750323 817.57213126.437258 916.818465145.150214151.387866154.506693157.313636157.469577

Tr (años)Duracion en min.

164 16414.1608231 2 14.1622.3423374 5 22.3427.3771155 10 27.3835.3233087 25 35.3241.2501181 50 41.2546.2575332 100 46.2653.1037369 250 53.1055.3858048 500 55.3956.5268387 1000 56.5357.5537693 10000 57.5557.610821 20000 57.61

Duración5 10 15 20 30 45 60

8.37687422 12.5391137 15.3299729 17.4888785 20.8077881 24.4807653 27.322044913.2166718 19.7836742 24.1869717 27.5932001 32.8296329 38.6246984 43.107547116.1950087 24.2418652 29.6374325 33.8112442 40.2276912 47.3286571 52.821702320.8956014 31.2780537 38.2396815 43.6249399 51.9037572 61.0657747 68.153173224.401622 36.5261199 44.6558218 50.9446591 60.6125585 71.3118479 79.5884233

27.3637723 40.9600817 50.0766606 57.1289095 67.97041 79.9685026 89.249784131.4136631 47.0222523 57.4881024 65.5840977 78.0301611 91.8039944 102.45892332.7636267 49.0429759 59.958583 68.4024938 81.3834114 95.7491583 106.8619733.4386085 50.0533377 61.1938233 69.8116918 83.0600366 97.7217403 109.06349334.0460921 50.9626633 62.3055396 71.07997 84.5689993 99.497064 111.04486434.0798412 51.0131813 62.3673016 71.1504299 84.6528305 99.5956931 111.15494

Duración5 10 15 20 30 45 60

100.522491 75.2346822 61.3198915 52.4666355 41.6155762 32.6410204 27.3220449158.600061 118.702045 96.7478868 82.7796004 65.6592658 51.4995978 43.1075471194.340105 145.451191 118.54973 101.433733 80.4553825 63.1048762 52.8217023250.747217 187.668322 152.958726 130.87482 103.807514 81.4210329 68.1531732292.819463 219.156719 178.623287 152.833977 121.225117 95.0824639 79.5884233

328.365268 245.76049 200.306642 171.386729 135.94082 106.62467 89.2497841376.963957 282.133514 229.95241 196.752293 156.060322 122.405326 102.458923393.16352 294.257855 239.834332 205.207481 162.766823 127.665544 106.86197

401.263302 300.320026 244.775293 209.435075 166.120073 130.295654 109.063493408.553105 305.77598 249.222158 213.23991 169.137999 132.662752 111.044864408.958094 306.079088 249.469206 213.45129 169.305661 132.794258 111.15494

Duración120 240

35.0688455 44.281395955.3301158 69.865281467.7985898 85.60921187.4770944 110.457239102.154657 128.990582114.555367 144.648947131.509781 166.057268137.161253 173.193376139.986988 176.761429142.530151 179.972677142.671437 180.15108

Duración120 240

17.5344228 11.07034927.6650579 17.466320333.8992949 21.402302743.7385472 27.614309751.0773284 32.2476455

57.2776836 36.162236765.7548907 41.514317168.5806264 43.298343969.9934942 44.190357371.2650753 44.993169471.3357187 45.03777