la evolución mundial de la lechería vision 2013 y más allá agosto 22, 2013
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La Evolución Mundial de la Lechería Vision 2013 Y Más Allá Agosto 22, 2013. Programa. Ceres. Quiénes somos - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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DAIRY RISK MANAGEMENTLa Evolución Mundial de la Lechería Vision 2013 Y Más Allá
Agosto 22, 2013
Click to edit Master title stylePrograma
Preguntas (Questions)
Click to edit Master title styleCeres
Quiénes somos
Ceres es una empresa líder en materia de asesoramiento que ofrece una amplia gama de servicios financieros, educación, previsión e investigación para una base de clientes diversificada. Nos centramos en la colaboración con nuestros clientes para proporcionar soluciones personalizadas que abordan desafíos presentados por perpetuamente los mercados cambiantes.
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¿Cuál es la historia?
Un eco del pasado en
el futuro…
-Victor Hugo
Click to edit Master title stylePrograma
Preguntas (Questions)
Impulsores de la Demanda a 2020
(Demand Drivers to 2020)
2020 La Leche y de Suministro de
Productos Lácteos (2020 Milk and Dairy Product
Supply)
El comercio mundial de
productos lácteos (World Dairy Trade)
Producción de leche y los costos
(Milk Production & Costs)
Click to edit Master title styleSeleccionados Nacionalidad Producción de Leche - 2013 Pronóstico
Source: USDA FAS
34,650
9,738
91,640
8,500
11,270
12,230
11,050
19,16932,380
7,575
57,780
139,200
(in 1,000 metric ton)
31,600
Click to edit Master title styleSeleccionados Nacionalidad Producción de Leche (2008 to 2013)
Japan
Ukraine
Russia
China
Australia
Canada
Mexico
EU-27
United States
Brazil
Argentina
New Zealand
India
-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
3.1%
4.1%
4.2%
5.4%
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
Source: USDA FAS
Click to edit Master title styleSeleccionados Nacionalidad Vacas de Leche – 2013 Pronóstico
Source: USDA FAS
8,400
1,645
9,220
985
6,300
2,236
2,560
5,01820,450
807
48,150
22,700
(in 1,000 head)
8,515
Click to edit Master title style2013 La Producción de Leche por Vaca
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Japa
n
Cana
da
EU-2
7
Aust
ralia
Arge
ntina
Ukr
aine
Chin
a
New
Zea
land
Russ
ia
Mex
ico
Braz
il
Indi
a -
2
4
6
8
10
12
(in m
etric
tons
per
yea
r)
Source: USDA FAS
Click to edit Master title style2011 El Costo de Producción de leche de las granjas de tamaño promedio por Nación
Source: IFCN
USD$/100kg milk (energy corrected milk)
>$60<=$120
>$50<=$60
>$40<=$50
>$30<=$40
>$20<=$30
<=$20
Click to edit Master title styleCosto de Productos Lácteos de Producción
Feed37%• Purchased• Grown• GrazedLabor12%Fuel/Energy 1%Land/Rent 4%Financing 2%Other37%Overhead 7%
Low Cost (Argentina)
Feed 54%• Purchased 34%• Grown 20%• Grazed 0%Labor 15%Fuel/Energy 3%Land/Rent 0%Financing 0%Other11%Overhead17%
Mid Cost (U.S.A)
Feed 20%• Purchased 14%• Grown 5%• Grazed 1%Labor 21%Fuel/Energy 4%Land/Rent 2%Financing 3%Other41%Overhead 9%
High Cost (Europe)
Source: USDA, Eurostat, Agrivalue S.A.
Click to edit Master title stylePrograma
Preguntas
Impulsores de la Demanda a
2020
2020 La Leche y de Suministro de Productos
Lácteos
El comercio mundial de productos
lácteos
Producción de leche y los
costos
Click to edit Master title stylePaisaje Lechería 2011 - importadores mundiales
China15,440 MT
Mexico7,767MT
Japan, S Korea & SE Asia
34,036 MT
Russia9,211 MT
MENA19,751 MTBrazil
3,091MT
(in milk equivalents)
Source: USDA FAS
Click to edit Master title styleEl cambio en las importaciones de productos lácteos del mundo en la última década
China+12,303 MT
Mexico+567MT
Japan, S Korea & SE Asia
+8,879 MT
Russia+3,569 MT
MENA+10,436 MTBrazil
+1,176MT
(in milk equivalents)
Source: USDA FAS
Click to edit Master title styleTop 10 leche y los importadores de productos lácteos
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
15,440
9,211
7,767
China Russia Mexico Japan Egypt / Algeria / Saudi Arabia
20
20
Source: USDEC
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population (in millions)
1,325
1,331
1,338
1,344
1,351 Population growth 0.51% 0.50% 0.48% 0.48% 0.49%
Urban Population (% of total)
47% 48% 49% 51% 52%
GDP (in trillions USD)
$3.18 $3.48 $3.84 $4.19 $4.52
GDP growth 9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.8%
Per capita GDP $2,403 $2,611 $2,869 $3,121 $3,348
China
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
100
200
300
400
500
600
China's Dairy Product Imports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
China's Dairy Product Consumption
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA, World Bank
Click to edit Master title styleRussia
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
Russia's Dairy Product Consumption
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population (in millions)
142
142
142
143
144
Population growth -0.11% -0.03% 0.34% 0.40% 0.40%
Urban Population (% of total)
73% 74% 74% 74% 74%
GDP (in trillions USD)
$0.94 $0.87 $0.91 $0.95 $0.98
GDP growth 5.2% -7.8% 4.5% 4.3% 3.4%
Per capita GDP $6,649 $6,131 $6,386 $6,633 $6,834
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50100150200250300350400
Russia's Dairy Product Imports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
Source: USDA, World Bank
Click to edit Master title styleMexico
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000
Mexico Dairy Product Consumption
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population (in millions)
115
116
118
119
121
Population growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Urban Population (% of total)
77% 78% 78% 78% 78%
GDP (in trillions USD)
$0.93 $0.88 $0.92 $0.96 $1.00
GDP growth 1.2% -6.0% 5.3% 3.9% 3.9%
Per capita GDP $8,113 $7,535 $7,834 $8,038 $8,251
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50
100
150
200
250
Mexico's Dairy Product Imports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
Source: USDA, World Bank
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population (in millions)
144
148
151
154
157
Population growth 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%
Urban Population (% of total)
43-83% 43-84% 43-84% 44-84% 44-85%
GDP (in trillions USD)
$0.78 $0.78 $0.81 $0.85
GDP growth 0.6% 3.7% 4.9%
Per capita GDP $5,387 $5,299 $5,381 $5,535
Middle East North Africa
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50
100
150
200
250
Algeria's Dairy Products Imports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)145150155160165170175180185190195
Algeria's Dairy Product Consumption
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
Source: USDA, World Bank
Click to edit Master title styleJapan
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000
Japan's Dairy Product Consumption
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population (in millions)
128
128
127
128
128
Population growth -0.05% -0.11% -0.08% 0.29% -0.20%
Urban Population (% of total)
47% 48% 49% 51% 52%
GDP (in trillions USD)
$4.70 $4.44 $4.65 $4.62 $4.71
GDP growth -1.04% -5.53% 4.65% -0.57% 1.94%
Per capita GDP $36,817 $34,822 $36,473 $36,161 $36,938
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Japan's Dairy Product Imports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA, World Bank
Click to edit Master title styleBrazil
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population (in millions)
1,325
1,331
1,338
1,344
1,351 Population growth 0.51% 0.50% 0.48% 0.48% 0.49%
Urban Population (% of total)
47% 48% 49% 51% 52%
GDP (in trillions USD)
$3.18 $3.48 $3.84 $4.19 $4.52
GDP growth 9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.8%
Per capita GDP $2,403 $2,611 $2,869 $3,121 $3,348 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Brazil's Dairy Imports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
100200300400500600700800
Brazil's Dairy Product Consumption
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA, World Bank
Click to edit Master title styleTop 10 leche y los exportadores de productos lácteos
U.S.A.25,333MT
Argentina6,898MT
Europe45,349MT
New Zealand
41,164MT
(in milk equivalents)
Australia9,891MT
Source: USDA FAS
Click to edit Master title styleCambio en el Mundo Exportaciones de productos lácteos en la última década
U.S.A.+16,587MT
Argentina+4,521MT
Europe+8,950MT
Australia-3,956MT
(in milk equivalents)
New Zealand
+14,467MT
Source: USDA FAS
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2,0
01
2,0
02
2,0
03
2,0
04
2,0
05
2,0
06
2,0
07
2,0
08
2,0
09
2,0
10
2,0
11 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
45,349
41,164
25,333
9,891
6,898
3,645
1,511
EU-27 New Zealand United States
Australia Argentina Egypt
Uruguay Switzerland Ukraine
Iran
Top 10 Leche y Exportadores de Productos Lácteos
EU-2728%
New Zea-land25%
United States16%
Aus-tralia6%
Ar-gen-tina4%
Egypt2%
Uruguay2%
Switzerland2%
Ukraine
2%
All others
14%
Export market share
Source: USDEC
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0.0
200,000.0400,000.0600,000.0800,000.0
1,000,000.01,200,000.01,400,000.0
New Zealand Dairy Product Production
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
New Zealand
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
200400600800
1,0001,2001,400
New Zealand Exports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA, NZ Stats
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
100000020000003000000400000050000006000000700000080000009000000
10000000
EU Dairy Product Production
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
The European Union
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
100200300400500600700800900
EU Dairy Exports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA, Eurostat
Click to edit Master title style
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
U.S. Dairy Product Production
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
The United States of America
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
100
200
300
400
500
600
US Dairy Exports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA
Click to edit Master title style
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000
Australia Dairy Product Production
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
Australia
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50
100
150
200
250
Australia Dairy Exports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA, Dairy Australia
Click to edit Master title style
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
100000200000300000400000500000600000700000
Argentina's Dairy Product Production
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
Argentina
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Argentina Dairy Exports
Cheese Butter SMP WMP
(in 1
,000
met
ric to
ns)
Source: USDA, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Argentina
Click to edit Master title stylePrograma
Preguntas
Click to edit Master title styleLos conductores de la demanda de productos lácteos
Crecimiento de Clase Media
Índices de Natalidad
Urbanización
Dieta Occidental
Click to edit Master title styleLos conductores de la demanda de productos lácteos
Urbanización• La gente se mueve de las
zonas rurales a las ciudades en busca de trabajo
• La reducción de la agricultura de subsistencia y el aumento de la dependencia de otros para producir alimentos
• Aumenta la exposición a la dieta occidental
Click to edit Master title styleUrbanization in Asia & Africa is Expected to Continue to Expand
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America & Caribbean
North America
Oceania
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
World Urbanization Forecast
1950 1970 2011 2030 2050
Source: United Nations, “World Urbanization Prospect, 2011 Revision”
Click to edit Master title styleLos conductores de la demanda de productos lácteos
Índices de Natalidad
• Aumento de la tasa de natalidad
• Preferencia de los consumidores por las fórmulas de leche en polvo
• Más madres que trabajan
• Conducir un mayor uso de la leche en polvo y suero de leche y lactosa
Click to edit Master title styleLos conductores de la demanda de productos lácteos
Crecimiento de Clase Media• Todo el mundo la "clase
media" está creciendo• El aumento de los
ingresos• Más ingresos
discrecionales• Que conduce a más
dólares que se pueden asignar a los productos lácteos
Click to edit Master title styleMundial de la Renta Nacional Bruta
From 2005 to 2010
World GNI growth +16.34 billion USD
Main contributors (%)
China 21.2%
United States 8.9%
Brazil 6.7%
Russia 4.7%
India 4.5%
Germany 4.0%
France 3.4%
Canada 2.5%
From 2000 to 2005World GNI growth +13.94 billion USD
Main contributors (%)
United States 24.1%
China 7.9%
United Kingdom 5.9%
Germany 5.7%
France 5.1%
Italy 4.3%
Japan 4.2%
Spain 3.5%
Source: IDF, The World Dairy Situation 2012
Click to edit Master title styleINB per cápita y crecimiento del PIB conduce a un mayor consumo de productos lácteosconduce a un mayor consumo de productos lácteos
Source: World Bank, calculations by Ceres
Click to edit Master title styleLa clase media del mundo se prevé que crezca 3,2 mil millones en 2020
Projected Middle Class (in millions)
2009 2020
North America 338 18% 322 10%
Europe 664 36% 703 22%
Central & South America
181 10% 251 8%
Asia Pacific 525 28% 1,740 54%
Sub-Saharan Africa
32 2% 57 2%
MENA 105 6% 165 5%
World 1,845 100% 3,249 100%
Projected Middle Class Spending (in billions of 2005 PPP dollars)
2009 2020
North America 5,602 26% 5,863 17%
Europe 8,138 38% 10,301 29%
Central & South America
1,534 7% 2,315 7%
Asia Pacific 4,952 23% 14,798 42%
Sub-Saharan Africa
256 1% 448 1%
MENA 796 4% 1,321 4%
World 21,278 100% 35,045 100%
Source: The Brookings Institution, The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East
Click to edit Master title styleLos conductores de la demanda de productos lácteos
Dieta Occidental• El aumento de ingreso
disponible• Una mayor urbanización
conveniencia• Los padres que trabajan• El apetito por una dieta
occidental está impulsando el consumo de lácteos per cápita en las regiones lecheras no tradicionales
Click to edit Master title styleComida occidental con sabores locales
Click to edit Master title styleDomino’s pizza tiendas
500+500+
500+
South Korea
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Shanghai, China
Click to edit Master title styleDesafíos a la creciente demanda Dairy hasta el 2020
Price Volatility Product Safety Economic Slowdown Supply Imbalance Policy
Click to edit Master title stylePrograma
Preguntas
Impulsores de la Demanda a
2020
2020 La Leche y de Suministro de Productos
Lácteos
El comercio mundial de productos
lácteos
Producción de leche y los
costos
Click to edit Master title style
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (2011-2020)
Colombia 1.7%
Japan -0.5%
Canada 0.7%
Turkey 3.3%
Australia 1.0%
Argentina 3.3%
Mexico 0.9%
Ukraine 1.4%
New Zealand 3.1%
Brazil 2.1%
Pakistan 2.7%
Russia 1.1%
China 3.9%
USA 1.6%
Previsión de crecimiento de la oferta de leche
Source: FAO
ColombiaJapan
CanadaTurkey
AustraliaArgentina
MexicoUkraine
New ZealandBrazil
PakistanRussiaChina
USAIndia
European Union
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
OECD-FAO Projected Milk Supply Growth
2020 2008-2010
(in millions of metric tons)
Click to edit Master title styleMantequilla pronóstico 2020
Source: FAO
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
12 000
13 000
OECD/FAO World Butter Forecast – Production & Consumption
Production Consumption
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
3 347
4 540
3 918
3 7233 626
3 6353 702
3 7513 749
3 7413 729
FAO Butter Price Forecast
(in U
SD$
per m
etric
ton)
Click to edit Master title styleQueso pronóstico 2020
Source: FAO
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
17 000
18 000
19 000
20 000
21 000
22 000
23 000
24 000
OECD/FAO World CheeseForecast - Produtction & Consumption
Production Consumption
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3 200
3 400
3 600
3 800
4 000
4 200
4 400
3 882
4 325
3 861
3 6963 673
3 770
3 865
3 9704 038
4 056
4 093
FAO Cheese Price Forecast
(in U
SD$
per m
etric
ton)
Click to edit Master title styleSMP pronóstico 2020
Source: FAO
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3 000
3 200
3 400
3 600
3 800
4 000
4 200
OECD/FAO World SMP Forecast - Produtc-tion & Consumption
Production Consumption
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2 500
2 700
2 900
3 100
3 300
3 500
3 700
2 908
3 559
3 220
3 0202 975
3 0643 142
3 239
3 3483 366
3 421
FAO SMP Price Forecast
(in U
SD$
per m
etric
ton)
Click to edit Master title styleWMP pronóstico 2020
Source: FAO
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
OECD/FAO World WMP Forecast - Produtc-tion & Consumption
Production Consumption
(in 1
,000
met
ric
tons
)
Avg
2008
-10e
st.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2 500
2 700
2 900
3 100
3 300
3 500
3 700
3 900
4 100
4 300
3 264
4 068
3 452
3 2633 215
3 2773 355
3 4373 514
3 534
3 589
FAO WMP Price Forecast
(in U
SD$
per m
etric
ton)
Click to edit Master title styleDesafíos para el creciente suministro de leche a través de 2020
Water / Land Environmental Regulation Feed Costs Weather Trade Policy
Click to edit Master title style
¿Preguntas?