jheckman presentation

8/12/2019 JHeckman Presentation

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HardEvidenceonSoftSkills:TheGEDandtheProblemofSoftSkillsinAmerica(Forthcoming,UniversityofChicagoPress,2011)

WhatHaveWeLearned?WhereAreWeHeaded?Testing,DeterminantsofSchoolChoice,Experiments

Santiago,Chile

November22,2010

JamesJ.

Heckman

UniversityofChicago

CowlesFoundation,YaleUniversity

AmericanBarFoundation


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Thistalkisabouttheachievementteststhatare

widelyusedtoscreen,sortandmonitorthesuccessof

schoolsandsociety.

PISAtests;NoChildLeftBehind;IowaTests;NAEP

tests;andtheGED(GeneralEducational

Development);LSAT;

SAT.

Thislectureisaboutwhatthesetestsmissandwhy

whattheymissisimportanttoknow.

Theymiss

noncognitive

(personality)

traits.


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Thesearesometimescalledsoftskills orcharacter

traits.

Perseverance,conscientiousness,motivation,willful

planning.

Theyarepredictiveofarangeofimportantbehaviors.

Ignoringpersonalityandcharacterisadangerous

thingtodoandcanleadtocostlymistakesin

assessingandaddressingsocialproblems.


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IshowthiswiththeGED,anachievementtestthat

highschooldropoutscantaketocertifythattheyare

theequivalents(incognition)ofhighschool

graduates.

ItisaquantitativelyimportantprogramintheU.S.

andis

also

used

in

Canada.

AversionofitwasadoptedinBraziltosolveits

problemofhavingapoorlyeducatedpopulation.


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Figure1:GrowthintheGEDPercentofHigh

SchoolCredentials

and

Number

of

Takers


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Lessons

from

a

study

of

the

GED

exam

program

and

theuseofrelatedexamsarebroader.

Theyapplytomanycountries.


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WhatAre

These

Lessons?

Morethanacademicachievementisrequiredfor

successinlife.

Personalitycharactercanbemeasured.

Personalitycanbefostered.

Interventions

that

promote

character are

unexploredandpotentiallypowerfulavenuesfor

socialpolicy.


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WhatAre

These

Lessons?

Thereareotherlessonsaswell.

Movements

for

accountability in

education

often

createperverseincentives.

Testsandtestcertificationcancreateandconceal

problems.

Uncriticalrelianceontestsasmeasuresofthe

outcomesofschoolsandsocialprogramsisa

dangerouspolicy.


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ThePower

of

Personality

The

wide

array

of

outcomes

causally

affected

by

soft

skillsisremarkable:smoking,health,teenpregnancy,

highschoolgraduation,wages,criminalactivity,

employment,andwelfaredependencytonameonlya

few.

Inmanycases,softskillsplayagreaterrolein

determiningoutcomesthandocognitiveskills.


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CharacterCan

Be

Measured

Ifsoftskillsaresoimportant,whyhavetheybeen

ignoredinpublicpolicydiscussionsforsolong?

Manypeopleviewtheseskillsasfuzzy conceptsthat

haveonlytenuouseffectsonbehaviorandthatmay

bemoretheconsequencethanthecauseofbehavior.

Anotherreason

is

that,

unlike

cognitive

skills,

soft

skillsarethoughttobedifficulttomeasuresuchasan

IQorSATscore.

Thatis

wrong,

as

Ishow

in

this

lecture.


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Introduction:

HardEvidence

on

Soft

Skills

Itisatruismthatmanydifferentskillsareimportant

forsuccessinlife.

Achievementindifferentfieldsrequiresdifferent

bundlesoftalentatdifferentlevels.


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Introduction:

HardEvidence

on

Soft

Skills

Thomas

Edison:

an

exceedingly

clever

inventor. Hewasalsoharddrivingandpersistent.

Heiscelebratedbothforhisdeepinsightsandforhis

willingnesstoperformendlessexperimentsbeforehe

discoveredtheideathatbecamehisnextinvention.

Hisselfdescription:genius1%inspiration,99%

perspiration.

WoodyAllen:80%ofsuccessisshowingup.


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Introduction:

HardEvidence

on

Soft

Skills

In

almost

every

task

in

life,

more

than

just

the

raw

abilitytosolveabstract problemsisrequiredfor

success,althoughtheproportionsofcognitionand

characterrequiredvaryacrosstasks.

Selfcontrol,

self

discipline,

and

motivation

are

requiredtofosterandapplytalent.


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Introduction:

HardEvidence

on

Soft

Skills

Despitethepowerfulintuitiveforceoftheideathatmany

different

abilities

are

required

to

succeed

in

mosttasksinlife,softskillsareignoredinmostpopularandacademicdiscussionsofskillandskill

formation

of

the

success

and

failure

of

schools. Theemphasisinmostpublicpolicydiscussionsis

almostexclusivelyoncognitiveskillsintelligenceandacquiredknowledgeasmeasuredbyIQand

achievementtests.

Everything

else

is

given

aback

seat.


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Introduction:

HardEvidence

on

Soft

Skills

Schoolsarenowexpectedtoteachcognitionandnot

character.

Schooleffectivenessismoreoftenmeasuredbytest

scores.

Charactereducation

is

thought

to

be

the

province

of

the

family.

Yetthefamilyisunderattackinmanycountriesaround

theworld.


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Introduction:

HardEvidence

on

Soft

Skills

Moresingleparentfamiliesthatprovidefewerresources

fortheir

children.

Socialpolicyhastolookbeyondtheonedimensionalfocus

oncognitionandtestsofcognitionthatdocumentcurrent

thinking.


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I.OriginsofTesting


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Themodernaccountabilitymovementineducation

aroseinU.S.educationalreformmovements.

HoraceMann(1840s)introducedthestandardized

test.

Theinstrumentwascrude.

ButMannsawitslimitations,eveniftheinstrument

wereperfected.

Mannviewedaprimaryfunctionofschoolsas

teachingmorality

and

character.


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Mann:

Hencetovalueschools,bylengthinsteadofquality,isa

matchlessabsurdity.

Arithmetic,

grammar,

and

the

other

rudiments,astheyarecalled,comprisebutasmallpartof

theteachingsinaschool. Therudimentsoffeelingare

taught

not

less

than

the

rudiments

of

thinking.

The

sentimentsandpassionsgetmorelessonsthanthe

intellect. Thoughtheiropenrecitationsmaybeless,their

secretrehearsalsaremore.

Horace

Mann

(1867,

p.

420)


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Mannsideasforstandardizedtestingwerenotpursuedonawidespreadscaleforanother5070

years(exception,

New

York

Regents

in

1870s).

19thCenturyusedinputbasedmeasures(e.g.,standardizedcurriculum)toevaluateschools.

Therewas

often

harsh

discipline.

Alsoschoolingtargetedelites:collegeandevenhighschoolonlyfortheselect.

Progressives(JohnDeweyandothers)soughttofree

upthe

curriculum

(early

20th

Century).

Enrollawiderswathofsocietyintoschools.


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IQas

aFilter

TheProgressivesneededadevicetofilterandtrack

students.

IQtestsanearly20thCenturyinventionthatplayed

thisrole.

FirstIQtestwasdesignedtoscreenoutmisfitsin

school.

Roleoftestbroadenedtosortstudentswithin

schoolsthisproducedtracking.

Butthe

creators

of

IQ

tests

realized

their

limitations.


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Binet:

[Successinschool]...admitsofotherthingsthan

intelligence;to

succeed

in

his

studies,

one

must

have

qualitieswhichdependonattention,will,andcharacter;

forexampleacertaindocility,aregularityofhabits,and

especially

continuity

of

effort.

A

child,

even

if

intelligent,

willlearnlittleinclassifheneverlistens,ifhespendshis

timeinplayingtricks,ingiggling,inplayingtruant.

Binet(1916,p.254)


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AtaboutthesametimethatBinetwaswriting,

CharlesSpearman,bestknownforhisworkong a

unitaryfactor

that

is

claimed

to

capture

the

structure

ofintelligencealongwithhisstudent,EdwardWebb,

undertookstudiesofcharacter becauseofthe

urgencyof

its

practical

application

to

all

the

business

oflife (Webb1915,p.1).

SpearmanandWebbconcludedthatmanypositive

aspects

of

character

shared

a

relation

to

what

modern

personalitypsychologiststermConscientiousness.


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ArthurJensen,

the

intellectual

heir

of

Spearman

and

ardent

proponentofthepowerofg,ameasureofintelligenceor

problemsolvingability,inexplainingsuccessinlife,writes:

Whatarethechiefpersonalitytraitswhich,interactingwith

g,relatetoindividualdifferencesinachievementand

vocationalsuccess? Themostuniversalpersonalitytraitis

conscientiousness,that

is,

being

responsible,

dependable,

caring,organizedandpersistent.

Jensen(1998,p.575)


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Taylorism:Scientific

Management

Alate19thandearly20thcenturyobsession.

FormalizedtheAmericanpassionforefficiencyand

productivity.

Taylorismwashighlyinfluentialscientific

management,measurement,andaccountability.

Buthowtoapplyittoschools?


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Bobbitt,aTaylorist

University

of

Chicago

educator

in

the

early20thCentury:

Educationis

ashaping

process

as

much

as

the

manufacture

ofsteelrails;thepersonalityistobeshapedandfashioned

intodesirableforms.Itisashapingofmoredelicatematters,

moreimmaterialthings,certainly;yetashapingprocessnone

theless.

Bobbitt(1913,pp.1213)


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Bobbittlackedthetoolstomeasuretheoutputof

schools,butlikeMannheviewedpersonalityasan

output.

IQwas(andis)heldtomeasureafixedtrait.

Theachievement

test

was

created

in

the

wake

of

the

IQtestawaytoimplementTaylorismintheschools.

Tocapturetheknowledgeacquiredinschools


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GeneralKnowledge

Achievementtestswerecreatedtomeasuregeneralknowledge.

RalphTyler

(Chicago)

and

Edward

Lindquist

(Iowa)

inventedtheachievementtestasawaytomeasuregeneralknowledge anddevelopedthetechnologytoimplementtheachievementtest.

Designedtocaptureimportantlifeskills;notspecificknowledgeofacourse.

Iowatests;ACT;GED;NoChildLeftBehind;NAEP.

Allof

the

originators

of

these

tests

understood

what

theymissed.


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Tylerfavored

other

mechanisms

of

assessmenttocapturetheseoutputsof

schools:Weleanheavilyonwrittenexaminations,onafewtypesofobjectivetests,andonthesubjectiveimpressionsofteachers.

Manyotherappraisaldevicescouldbeused,suchasrecords

ofactivities

in

which

pupils

participate,

questionnaires,

check

lists,anecdotalrecordsandobservationalrecords,interviews,

reportsmadebyparents,productsmadebythepupils,and

recordsmadebyinstruments(motionpictures,eye

movementrecords,soundrecordings,andthelike).

Tyler(1940,p.27)


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TheGED

GEDanachievementtestcreatedtocertifythegeneral

knowledge ofwhatsoldiershadlearnedinWWII.

Soldiershad

been

in

US

Army

in

World

War

II2

3years

formeddisciplineandselectedontraitsthatwererequired

toserveinmilitary:obedience,selfcontrol,etc.

Thusit

was

implicit

at

the

time

the

GED

was

created

that

certifierspossessedcharacter.

Theyalsoacquiredknowledgethroughcoursework

(ArmedForcesInstitute)andthroughlifeexperiences.

GEDtest

was

later

(1950s)

applied

to

civilian

populations

asawaytosolvethedropoutproblem.


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TheGED

Forcespushingtowardwidespreadacceptanceof

tests.

Desireforegalitarianismmeritocracy.

SATand

Conant:

target

bright

kids;

break

good

old

boy

network

Creationofameritocracy.


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TheGED Accountability

movement

in

U.S.

policy

in

the

KennedyJohnsonadministration.a. McNamaraandtheWhizKids revivedTaylorism:Apply

economicprinciplestosocialprogramsandproduceasocial

versionof

aprofit

loss

statement.

Extremecase:bodycountsinVietnam.

b. GreatSocietyandEvaluation;FocusedonEducationalPolicy;AccountabilityReturned(HenryAaron:PoliticsandtheProfessors:TheGreatSocietyinPerspective)

c. Achievementand

IQ

tests

scores

in

social

programs

were

favoredasgoodmeasuresofsuccess.

d. GEDwasameasureofoutputproducinghighschoolgraduates

e. Nationat

Risk:

American

Education

Failing:

arenewed

emphasisontesting

f. AccountabilityGoesonSteroids:ultimateexpressionistheNoChildLeftBehindmovementinthe2000s.


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Figure2:SalesofStandardizedTests

Sources:CollinsandSchick(1970),SimoraandSchick(1981),Simoraand

Harris(1991),Barr

and

Simora

(1992),

Bogart

(1996,

1999,

2002).


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GEDinparticulartookoff


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Figure3:GrowthintheGEDPercentofHigh

SchoolCredentialsandNumberofTakers


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WhatistheGED?

LookatGEDs(atthelevelof9thgradeto10thgrade).


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QuestionsfromGEDTest


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Figure

4:

GED

Sample

Questions


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Whatare

the

GEDs?

Intermsoffamilybackground,theyareintermediate

betweenhigh

school

grads

and

dropouts.

Theyareassmartasordinaryhighschoolgraduates

whodonotgoontocollege.


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CognitiveSkills:

Comparable

for

GEDsandHighSchoolGrads


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Figure5:Cognitiveabilitybyeducational

status(no

college

sample,

all

ethnic

groups)

Source:Heckman,Humphries,Urzua,andVeramendi(2010)


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Theylacknoncognitiveskills.


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NoncognitiveSkills:

GEDs

Resemble

Dropouts


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Figure6:Noncognitiveabilitybyeducational

status(no

college

sample,

all

ethnic

groups)



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Figure6:Noncognitiveabilitybyeducational

status(no

college

sample,

all

ethnic

groups)



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Lookattheirperformanceinlabormarkets.

Wagesrelativetodropouts

1. Unadjusted(bycognitiveability):theyhavesome

advantage,butthatadvantageistherebeforetheyget

theGED.

2. Adjustedbyability:theeffectsvanish.

Figure 7: Economic gaps relative to dropouts: GEDs


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Figure7:Economicgapsrelativetodropouts:GEDs

andhigh

school

graduatesMaleEconomicGapsRelativetoDropouts:GEDsandHighSchoolGraduates

Figure 8: Abilityadjusted economic gaps relative


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Figure8:Abilityadjustedeconomicgapsrelative

todropouts:

GEDs

and

high

school

graduatesMaleabilityadjustedeconomicgapsrelativetodropouts:GEDsandhigh

schoolgraduates


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TheSocial

Performance

of

the

GEDs

Theirbehaviorsaredifferent.

Oftenworsethandropouts.

Theydropoutofeverythingtheystart(school;the

army;marriage).

Morelikely

to

engage

in

risky

behaviors.

Figure 9: Gaps in the Probability of Various Social Outcomes


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Figure9:GapsintheProbabilityofVariousSocialOutcomes

ComparedtoHighSchoolDropoutswithandwithoutcontrolling

forscholastic

ability

(NLSY79).

All

demographic

groups

pooled

unlessotherwisenoted.


Figure10:GapsintheProbabilityofVariousSocialOutcomes

d h h l h d h ll f


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ComparedtoHighSchoolDropoutswithandwithoutcontrollingfor

scholasticability

(NLSY97).

All

demographic

groups

pooled

unless

otherwisenoted.

Source:Heckman,

Humphries,

Urzua,

and

Veramendi

(2010)

Signaling: GED may signal ability and this


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Signaling:GEDmaysignalabilityandthis

signalmay

be

of

value

in

the

labor

market

Canexamine

this

possibility

by

looking

at

before

after

wages.

Noevidenceofanygainfromwagesbeforethetestis

taken.


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Nativevs.

Foreign

Born:

Another

Signal?

ClarkandJaeger(2006)arguethattheGEDmight

provideasignal

of

ability

that

is

more

familiar

to

employersthaneducationalcredentialsearned

outsidethecountry,ormaysignallanguageability

andcultural

assimilation.

ClarkandJaegeruseearningsdataintheCPSandfind

thatonlyforeignbornGEDswithnodomestic

credentialshaveastatisticallysignificantlyhigher

wagethannativeborndropouts.


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Nativevs.

Foreign

Born:

Another

Signal?

HeckmanandLaFontaine(2006)examinetheClark

andJaeger

(2006)

analysis

and

find

that

their

results

areproducedbydataartifactsandlimitations.

NoearningspremiumtoGEDreceiptforanygroup

onceselection

and

cognitive

ability

are

accounted

for

(HeckmanandLaFontaine,2006).


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Validitiesof

Achievement

Tests

Howwerethesewidelyusedtestsvalidatedbytheircreators?

Lookat

Predictive

Validities

(effect

sizes or

correlations).

Whatdothesetestspredict?HowstrongisthepredictivepowerofIQ,grades,andachievementtests?

ContrastbetweenWhatTestsAreDesignedtoMeasureVs.WhatTheyActuallyMeasure.

Manytests

of

cognition

are

only

validated

on

schoolingtasks.


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GeneralFinding

1. Themorecomplexthetask,thegreaterthe

predictivepower

of

cognition

(g theory).

2. Forlesscomplextasks,thegreaterthepredictive

powerofpersonality.Softskillsarehighlypredictive

inblue

collar

jobs.

3. Butevenincomplextasks,softskillsarehighly

predictive.

Table1:PredictiveValiditiesofVariousTestsofFluidand


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CrystallizedIntelligenceasEstablishedbytheTestMakers

T bl 1 P di ti V liditi f V i T t f Fl id d


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Table1:PredictiveValiditiesofVariousTestsofFluidand

CrystallizedIntelligence

as

Established

by

the

Test

Makers

(Cont.)


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Validitiesin

Labor

Market

andSocialOutcomes

Table2:ValiditiesinLaborMarketOutcomesfromthe


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NationalLongitudinalSurveyofYouth,1979:OurStudy

WhatAbouttheValidityofMeasuresof


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Personality?

Aretheyanybetterorworsethancognitive

measures?

LongitudeandLatitudeofPersonalityisBigFive:Alot

ofthestudyofvalidityhasbeendoneforthisgroup.

Table3:TheBigFiveDomainsandtheir


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Facets

Table3:TheBigFiveDomainsandtheir


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Facets(Cont.)


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PersonalityTest

Validations

as

ConceivedofByTheirCreators

Table4:PredictiveValiditiesofVariousPersonality


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Tests,Personality

Evaluations

Table4:PredictiveValiditiesofVariousPersonality


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Tests,Personality

Evaluations

(Cont.)

Table5:TheRelativePredictivePowerof

Conscientiousness and SAT Scores for College GPA


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ConscientiousnessandSATScoresforCollegeGPA


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Figure12:CorrelationsofTheBigFiveand


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Intelligencewith

Course

Grades

Figure13:AssociationswithStandardized


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AchievementTest

Scores


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Figure

14:

Associations

with

Job

Performance


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Figure16:Meanlogwagesbyage30(males)


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Source:Heckman,Stixrud,andUrzua(2006)

g g g y g ( )

Figure16:Meanlogwagesbyage30(males)


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Figure17:ProbabilityofBeingaWhiteCollarWorkerby


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Age30

Males

Figure17:ProbabilityofBeingaWhiteCollar

WorkerbyAge30 Males


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y g


Figure18:ProbabilityofBeinga4yrCollege


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Graduateby

Age

30

Males

Figure18:ProbabilityofBeinga4yrCollege


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Graduate

by

Age

30

Males

Figure19:Everbeeninjailbyage30,by


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ability(males)

Figure20:Probabilityofbeingteenageandsingle


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withchildren

(females)

Figure21:Probabilityofdailysmoking


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byage

18

(males)

Figure21:Probabilityofdailysmokingby


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age18

(males)

ConfusionAsToWhatAchievement


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TestsActually

Measure

Achievementtestscoresthemselvesareexplainedin

partby

personality

tests.

ConfusionofIQandachievement(e.g.,TheBellCurve)

iscommon.

Achievementtests

bundle

IQ

and

personality

(recall

Table2).

ThepowerofIQ, asclaimedbyHerrnsteinand

Murray,

is

in

part

the

power

of

personality.

d

b

b

d


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Source:Borghans,Golsteyn,Heckmanetal.[2010]

Figure 22: AFQT Decomposed by IQ, Rosenberg, andRotter(Unconditional)

f


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TestPerformance

Can

Be

Incentivized

Table6:IncentivesandPerformanceon

I lli

T


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Intelligence Tests


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Incentivesoperatemoreeffectivelyonthosewith

lowerlevels

of

motivation.

Nolastingeffectsofincentives(Payforgrades).


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III.CostsofNeglectingSoftSkills


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GEDconcealsandcreatesmajorproblemsin

Americansociety.

Theone

dimensional

focus

of

public

policy

on

smarts concealsmajorproblemsbydistortingsocial

statisticsonthehealthofsocietyandbymisdirecting

effortbyinstitutionsandindividuals.

GEDsearnattherateofhighschooldropoutsand

resembledropoutsinmanyotherways,eventhough

theyareassmartashighschoolgraduatesas

measuredby

achievement

tests.


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BycountingGEDsashighschoolgraduates,Americans

deceivethemselves

about

the

health

of

their

society.

IfGEDsareproperlycountedashighschooldropouts,

theU.S.highschooldropoutratehasincreasedsince

the

early

1970s. Therisingdropoutrateisaworrybecausethemarket

valueofeducationhasriseninthepastthirtyyears.

Figure

23:

Trends

in

Educational

Attainment


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Figure 23: Trends in Educational Attainment


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Therisinghighschooldropoutratehelpstoexplain

therecent

slowdown

in

the

growth

of

skills

in

the

Americaneconomyandtheriseininequality.

Atatimewhenskilledlaborhasbecomemore

valuable

and

when

a

high

skilled

work

force

is

needed

tocompeteintheworldeconomyandtomeetfiscal

challenges,Americasrateofproducinghighskillshas

decelerated.


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TheU.S.hasfallenfromfirstintheworldin

percentageof

population

graduating

college

30

years

agototwelfthtoday.

TheGEDcredentialconcealsthistrendbecausemany

nominal

high

school

completers

are

actually

GEDs. Theconventionalmeasuresofeducationalattainment

overstatethetruegrowthofskillintheAmerican

economy.

TestsConcealProblemsof

Racial

Disparity


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Racial Disparity

TheGEDprogrammakesiteasytohideserioussocial

problems. Theofficialstatisticssuggestthattheblackwhitegapin

highschoolattainmenthasbeensubstantiallyreduced.

However,racialconvergenceineducationalattainmentis

anillusion

manufactured

in

part

by

the

GED

program.

Formales,theapparenteducationaladvanceofblack

malesislargelyduetotheirhigherincarcerationratesas

wellas

to

the

production

of

GED

credentials

in

prison.


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Prisonersarenotcountedinmanyofficialstatisticsoneducationalattainment.

Sincemostprisonersarehighschooldropouts,their

removalfrom

social

statistics

inflates

the

measured

high

schoolgraduationrateforblackmales.

Inaddition,formanyblackmales,prisonistheirhighschool,andmanyobtainGEDcredentialswhileincarcerated.

CounttheseGEDsasdropouts,asthedataonthesocioeconomicperformanceoftheGEDssaysweshould,thereisnoprogressinblackhighschoolattainmentratesover

the

past

40

years.

MakingTestScoresaGoalDivertsAttention

fromProblemsandGiveaFalseSenseof

Success


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Success

ThepersistenceofalargescaleGEDtestingprogram,

despiteall

of

the

evidence

that

it

is

not

working,

exposes

deepcynicisminmanyquartersofAmericanpubliclife.

Thequickfixistheruleofthedaydespiteagrowing

awareness

that

we

need

to

address

long

run

structural

deficits.

Ifaproblemispaperedover,itisoutofsight,andhence

outofmind.

NotAllGEDsAreAlike:TheProgramIs

Not

Universally

Bad


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Not Universally Bad Itbenefitssome:whoarethey?

Thosehighinbothcognitiveandnoncognitiveskills.

Forwhite

males

the

respective

probabilities

of

being

a

terminaldropoutandofobtainingaGEDbasedon

populationdecilesofcognitiveandnoncognitive

ability. 1 representsthelowestdecileand10 represents

thehighest.

Dropoutslowinbothcognitiveandnoncognitiveskill.

GEDshighincognitiveandlowinnoncognitiveskill.

Figure24:DistributionofProbabilityofDroppingOutby

Cognitive

and

Noncognitive

Ability

(white

males)


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g g y ( )

Figure25:DistributionofProbabilityofGEDReceipt

by

Cognitive

and

Noncognitive

Ability

(white

males)


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by Cog t e a d o cog t e b ty ( te a es)

The

Option

Value

of

the

GED


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The Option Value ofthe GED TheGEDcreatesoptionsforhighschooldropouts.

Itopensthedoorstohighereducationforthem.

60%go

on

to

college.

Yetonly4%graduatea4yearcollege.

Whobenefits?

Thosewith

high

levels

of

cognitive

and

noncognitive

skills.

TheestimatedoptionvaluesoftheGEDasafunction

ofcognitive

and

noncognitive

ability.

Figure26:DistributionofGEDOptionValuesby

CognitiveandNoncognitiveAbilityDecilesforwhite

males


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105/155

Thisisanewapproachtopolicyevaluation.

Insteadof

saying

good or

bad, saying

which

programsworkforwhichpeople.

Targetedprograms

ButonNetIsThereaBenefitoraLoss

from

the

GED

Program?


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from the GED Program?

ConsiderthegrowthinGEDcertificationandwhat

fuelsit.

LessonsfromtheU.S.applymoregenerally.

ChangesandGrowthintheGEDTest

Taking

Population


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g p

GovernmentEducationandTrainingPrograms

introducedin

the

War

on

Poverty

in

1960s.

AccountabilityMovementspawnedbyMcNamara

createdademandfornumbers(bodycount,etc.),

performancedriven policies.

GEDswereperceivedtobetrueequivalentsof

ordinaryhighschoolgraduates.

Growth

in

High

School

Age

Test

TakersI 1955 t t b ff i th GED t


108/155

g g In1955,asmorestatesbeganofferingtheGEDto

civilians,theAmericanCouncilofEducation

implemented

a

minimum

age

of

20

for

taking

the

GED

testtopreventteenagedstudentsfromseekingthe

GEDasareplacementforhighschool.

Schoolsareunderpressuretocomplywithnew

accountabilitylaws

(NCLB)

have

strong

incentives

to

dumpdropoutsintoGEDprograms.

HighstakestestingdrivespeopleintotakingGEDs.

Vulnerable

Youth


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Youthareveryvulnerable,oftenmakebadchoices.

Figure27:Proportionofindividualsineachagegroupscoringator

above

the

mean

for

26

to

30

year

olds

on

indices

of

intellectual

and

psychosocialmaturity.


110/155

Source:Steinberg,Graham,OBrienetal.[2009].


111/155

Thedecisionmakingprocessofteensmayleadthem

tomake

choices

that

restrict

their

educational

paths

andearningsinawaythattheylaterregret.

AdverseSocialConsequencesoftheGED


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TheGEDInducesWouldBeHighSchoolGraduatesto

DropOut

Table7:SimulatedResponseofEducational

AttainmenttoEliminationoftheGED


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Source:HeckmanandUrzua(2010).


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SimilarResultsfromtheIntroductionofGEDInto

Californiain

1970s

The GED Obscures the True Returnsd i


115/155

toEducation

Table 8: The Role of the GED in Explaining Rising


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Table8:TheRoleoftheGEDinExplainingRising

EducationalWageGaps

IV. Cognitive and Social andE ti l Skill C B F t d


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EmotionalSkillsCanBeFostered


118/155

Gapsincognitiveandnoncognitiveskillsopenupearly

across

social

and

economic

groups. Forbothcognitiveandsocioemotionaltraits,ability

gapsacrosssocioeconomicgroupsopenupatearly

agesandpersist.

Figure28:Trendinmeancognitivescorebymaternal

education


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Eachscorestandardizedwithinobservedsample.Usingallobservationsand

assumingdatamissingatrandom. Source:BrooksGunnetal.(2006).

Familyinvestment

and

early

childhood

programs

promote

bothcognitiveandnoncognitiveskills.


120/155

g g

IQbecomesrankstablebytheearlyteenageyears.

Achievement(crystallized

intelligence)

can

be

fostered.

Personalityskillsaremoremalleable.

Controllingforearlyfamilyenvironmentsusing

conventionalstatisticalmethodssubstantiallynarrowsthe

gaps.

Therearecomparablephenomenaintheevolutionofgaps

inbehavioralproblems.

Schoolsfoster

these

skills.

Figure29:CausalEffectofSchoolingonMeasuresof

Cognition(fromASVAB)


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Figure30:CausalEffectofSchoolingonMeasuresof

Cognition(fromASVAB)


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Figure31:CausalEffectofSchoolingonTwo

MeasuresofSocioemotionalSkills


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Figure32:CausalEffectofSchoolingonTwo

MeasuresofSocioemotionalSkills


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EnrichedEarly

Environments

Foster

Social and Emotional Skills


125/155

SocialandEmotionalSkills

High/ScopePerryPreschoolProgram

ThePerry

preschool

program

enriched

the

lives

of

low

incomeblackchildrenwithinitialIQsbelow85atage

3


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3.

2.5hoursperday

5daysperweek

2yearsduringeachschoolyear(midOctobertoMay).

homevisits

programstops

after

two

years

theprogramtaughtplanningandpersistenceaswellas

socialadjustment

Plan,

Do,

Review:

Plan

a

project,

do

it,

review

it

collectively


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Evaluatedbythemethodofrandomassignment.

Strongeffects

are

found

for

both

boys

and

girls,

althoughdifferenteffectsarefoundatdifferentages

fordifferentoutcomes.

DidnotleadtosustainedgainsinIQformales,and

onlyslighteffectforfemales.

Figure33:CognitiveEvolutionThroughTime,Perry

Males:MaleCognitiveDynamics

MaleCognitiveDynamics


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129/155

YetthePerryProgramhasastatisticallysignificant

annual

rate

of

return

of

around

6

10%

per

annumforbothboysandgirlsabovethepostWorldWarII

stockmarketreturnstoequityinU.S.labormarket

estimatedtobe5.8%.

ThePerryPreschoolProgramworkedprimarily

through socioemotional channels


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throughsocioemotionalchannels.

Raises

scores

on

achievement

tests

but

not

IQ

tests. Socioemotionalfactorsandcognitivefactorsboth

explainperformanceonachievementtests

(Duckworth,2006;Borghansetal.,2008;Borghanset

al.,2009).

Personalityfactorssubstantiallyaffectperformance

onachievementtests.

Figure34:PerryAge14TotalCATScores,by

TreatmentGroup


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CAT=California

Achievement

Test

Treatment:N=49;Control:N=46

StatisticallySignificantEffectforMalesandFemales(pvalues0.009,0.021respectively)

Source:Heckman,Malofeeva,Pinto,andSavelyev(2008).

Figure35:PersonalBehaviorIndex,by

TreatmentGroup


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Treatmentshiftsthedistributionupwards


133/155

(1=bad;;5=good).

Statisticallysignificant

treatment

effect

is

observed:

p=0.002.

ThePersonalBehaviorIndexisanunweightedaverage

offour

items:

absences

and

truancies, lying

or

cheating, steals andswearsorusesobscene

words.

Figure36:SocioEmotionalIndexby

TreatmentGroup


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Control Treatment

Treatmentshiftsthemeanupwards

(1=bad; ;5=good)


135/155

(1 bad;...;5 good).

Treatmenteffectonesidedpvaluesis0.096

(borderlinestatisticallysignificant).

TheSocioEmotionalindexisanunweightedaverage

offouritems:appearsdepressed, withdrawnand

uncommunicative, friendlyand

well

received

by

pupils, andappearsgenerallyhappy.

DecomposingTreatmentEffects


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p g

Figure37:DecompositionofTreatmentEffects,

Males


137/155

EvidencefromaSubstantialBodyofWorkon

ParentalInvestment:

TheFollowing

Lessons

Emerge


138/155

InvestmentmostproductiveinearlyyearsforIQand

fluidintelligence.

Investmentrelativelymoreproductiveinmiddleyears

ofchildhoodforfosteringpersonality.

Associatedwith

the

slowly

developing

pre

frontal

cortex.

Criminalactivitydependsrelatively moreon

personality:self

control,

anger

management,

etc.

EvidencefromaSubstantialBodyofWorkon

ParentalInvestment:

TheFollowing

Lessons

Emerge


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Educationalattainmentdependsrelativelymoreon

cognitiveskills.

Personalityfosterscognitiveskills.

Leadstofollowingoptimalpolicy(earlyvs.late)

(Cunha,Heckman,

and

Schennach,

2010).

Itisapolicytailoredtoindividualpatternsof

disadvantage.

Notaone

size

fits

all type

of

policy.

Figure38:DensitiesofRatioofEarlytoLateInvestments:

MaximizingAggregateEducationversusMinimizing

AggregateCrime


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Conclusions

Focusoncognitivetestscoresdeceivesus.

Softskillsmatter.


141/155

They

can

be

shaped,

even

into

the

adolescent

and

youngadultyears.

Improvingthemisaproductiveavenueofsocial

policy.

GEDisagoodillustrationoftheimportanceofsoft

skills.

GEDprogramtestsapartoftheskillsthatmatter.

Conclusions

TheGEDprogramconcealsandcreatesmajorsocialproblems.


142/155

DistortionscreatedbyNoChildLeftBehind.

Schoolsnow

focus

only

on

math

and

reading.

Policiesfocusingonpromotingtestscores,tuitionandcollegeapplicationpolices,andthelikemissabasic

pointabout

what

matters

for

success

and

how

to

fosterit.

Apolicyofpreventionratherthanremediationismorecosteffectiveandisamoreequitablewayto

promoteefficiency.

Appendix


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TableA1:Correlations,PartialCorrelations,andExplained

VarianceofIQandPersonalitywithLaterlifeOutcomes


144/155

FigureA1:JuveniledelinquencyandTheBig

Five


145/155

FigureA2:GrowthinIncarcerated

PopulationsbyRace


146/155

FigureA3:GEDsasaPercentofHSCredentialsby

Race,2005


147/155

Source:HeckmanandLaFontaine(2010).

Author(s) Main Variable(s) Data and Methods Causal Evidence Main Result(s)

Barnett,

Jung,

Yarosz et

Outcome(s): internalizing and

externalizing behavior

teacher-assessed Problem

Data: collected by

authors; 210 children

aged 3 and 4

Controls: n/a

Timing of Measurements:

Children were first assessed

Participants in the program had a 0.47

standard deviation lower score for the

behavioral problems index (p


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al. [2008] Behaviors Scale of the Social

Skills Rating System (SSRS)Intervention: participation in

a year-long Tools of the Mind

preschool program compared

to a generic program

g

Methods: random

assignment

in the fall before the program

and then again in the spring.

p (p )

Behncke

[2009]

Outcome(s): cognitive ability

performance on a diagnostic

math test for a college

economics class

Intervention: verbal

encouragement before the test

Data: Collected by

author; 440 students

from a Swiss

University

Methods: random

assignment,

randomization

inference

Controls: n/a


The noncognitive skill shock

directly proceeded test.

Verbal encouragement raised test scores

by 2.5% amongst all students (p


149/155

Chetty,

Friedman,

Hilger et

al. [2010]

Outcome(s): non-cognitive

skills - an index based on the

teachers observations of the

students

Intervention: randomly

assigned kindergarten class

quality as measured by

difference in percentiles of

the mean end-of-year test

Data: Project STAR;

1,671 4th grade students

and 1,780 8th grade

students

Methods: OLS, random

assignment

Controls: wave fixed effects,

student gender, free-lunch

status, age, race, a quartic in

the claiming parent's

household income interacted

with parent's marital status,

mother's age at child's birth,

whether the parents own a

home, and whether the

A 1 percentile improvement in

kindergarten class quality increases an

index of non-cognitive skills by 0.15

percentiles in 4th grade (p


150/155

scores of the students

classmates and the scores ofthe other kindergarteners at

the same school

parents made a 401 (k)

contribution between 1996and 2008


Classes were randomly

assigned in kindergarten, and

the behavioral indices were

based on 4th and 8th grade

teacher observations.

Diamond,

Barnett,

Thomas

et al.

[2007]

Outcome(s):Executive

Function Dots-Mixed task,

Reverse-Flanker task

Intervention: participation in

a Tools of the Mind program

instead of the regular schooldistricts balanced literacy

program

Data: 147 preschoolers

Methods: random

assignment

Controls: age, gender, years

in program


The tasks were given at the

end of the second year of the

program.

84% of students in Tools were

successful in the Reverse Flanker task

compared to 65% in the control group.

Almost twice as many students in the

Tools program achieved greater than

75% accuracy on the Dots-Mixed taskcompared to the control group.

Durlak andWeissberg

[in press]

Outcome(s): social andemotional learning skills,

attitudes, positive social

behavior, conduct problems,

emotional distress,

academic performance

Data: 270,034kindergarten through

high school students

Methods: meta-analysis

Controls: n/aTiming of Measurements: n/a

The mean difference in standarddeviations between the treatment and

control groups are as follows: social and

emotional learning skills = 0.57

(p


151/155

p

Intervention: Meta-analysis

of school-based, universal

social and emotional

learning program

p (p );

conduct problems = 0.22 (p


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that lasted two years and

enriched the lives of lowincome black children

Holmlund

and Silva

[2009]

Outcome(s): academic

performance average of

standardized test scores in

English, Math, and Science


the xl programme

targeting the noncognitive

skills of secondary school

students

Data: xl club

programme, National

Pupil Database (NPD),

Pupil Level Annual

Schools Census

(PLASC) ; 2,333 and

259,189 treated and

control students aged 14

in England (2004)

Methods: logit,

propensity score

matching, OLS,difference-in-difference,

double differences,

random-growth model

Controls: sex, language,

eligibility for school meals,

special needs status, and race

Timing of Measurements: The

data contains test scores from

age 11, age 14 (both before

the program), and age 16

(after the program).

Unconditional on observables, the

performance of the students in the xl club

is 1.2 to 1.4 standard deviations lower

than the control subjects (p


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al. [2010] 16-week inductive reasoning

training program coupled with

10 hours of puzzle solving per

week

Methods: random

assignment, latent

growth model

measured pre-test, at week 5,

at week 10, and post training.

program relative to people in the control

group (p


154/155

g g y

of the program, three years

after the program, and five

years after the program


the Quantum Opportunity

Program (QOP), centered

around mentoring and

providing incentives foracademic success

p g ,

years after the program.

y p g

Participation in the program was

associated with a 7 percentage point

increase in the probability of ever

attending college (p


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Language Fundamentals-3

Intervention: Participation in a

six-week (100 min/day)

computerized training

program for boosting language

skills (Fast ForWord program)

assignment the beginning of the program

and then six weeks later.

(p )

The increase in the receptive language

scores was 0.91 standard deviations

higher in the participants than for the

control group (p

jheckman presentation

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