Download - Risco operacional - eólica
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
1/17
Modeling and Monitoring of the Operational Risk in
Wind Farms South American Experience
Bernardo Reyes
Vestas Mediterranean
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
2/17
1.About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil
2.Modeling of the Risk in ind farms in o!eration
".Monitoring of the Risk in ind farms in o!eration
#.$he Benefit for the %ustomer& Reduction of the Risk and
Savings
'.$he South America and Brazil ()!erience
*.Structure to Su!!ort the +ynamic Risk Modeling and
Monitoring
,.-A
/.Summary
Agenda
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
3/17
"
About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil
ARGENTNA ,,0# M
!R!G!A" " M
#$%E 11#0, M
N#ARAG!A # M
&ra'il1# M
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
4/17
#
About Vestas Service in South America and Brazil
%a!acity already$3R
()* MW
%a!acity undere)ecution
(++ MW
()ecution about toStart
,-. MW
/ 0 -*1 MW
Signed 211
12* MW
Main office
4ortaleza 4acility
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
5/17
'
Modeling the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
4ailures Rates !er every 4ailure Mode
Ambient $em!erature and 5umidity
6evel of !roduction
S!in78! of the ind
Seasonality. 9n South America that kind of !henom is named :$he Boy;$he !g
hen the ind farms start the o!eration0 the risk is modeling change the focus. ?o is not only
the variable 6A% @load and charges or turbulence and the modeling includes&
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
6/17
*
Modeling the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
ind and Site RiskModeling
Service RiskModeling
6oad and %harges at +rive $rain
Site %heck for $urbulences ind Sector Management $heoretical 6ifetime for Main %om!onents
Risk of every failure mode
%BM for critical failures modes 3!timal ins!ection at minimum cost Real 6ifetime for Main %om!onents and Monitoring
Focus on 3ind farm4stechnical feasi5ilit6
Site Selection +evelo!ment ermits (ngineering %onstruction 3!eration
C2 years172 yearsD 71D years 171D years172 years17" years
Focus on minimi'ingoperati7e costs
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
7/17,
Modeling the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
4or that modeling the stages are&
R%M Stage@
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
8/17/
Modeling the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
8sing an on suite for the modeling the risk of every failure mode e considerer&
Severity of every failure mode @not only the drive train failures 4reEuency0 historic data and im!rovements of $< %a!ability of detection (nvironment0 Safety0 %ost0 8navailability Behavior @Mortal 9nfantry0 ?ormal0 ear0 %orrosion Survival 4unction and theoretical R86
%BM @condition base monitoring only for the critical failures modes @in red reventive Maintenance for standard failures modes @in green Run to failure strategy for lo im!act failures modes @in cyan
And define by risk the task needed to avoid;mitigate the effects by&
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
9/17F
Modeling the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
ith the !riorization of the failures modes based on risk the ne)t ste! is model thesurvival function for every failures mode. +e!ending of the criticality %MB changes into!reventive maintenance or Euantity of s!are7!arts.
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
10/171
Monitoring the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
4or that modeling the stages are&
3!timal 9ns!ection4reEuency Stage@6ocal0 for ind 4arm
S!are artsModeling Stage
@6ocal0 for ind 4arm
R86Monitoring Stage@6ocal0 for ind 4arm
3!timal 4reEuency define the number of interventions de!ending of the cost0 M$B4and M$$R and also0 if reEuired !ortable or online eEui!ment.
S!are arts Modelling give a number of s!are !arts reEuired in ind farm0 main are7
house to control the Risk at Minimum %ost
R86 give an ear Status of the devicesto !lanning a re!lacement hen fails
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
11/1711
Monitoring the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
9nsulate ear Monitoring @3ffline
artial +ischarges Monitoring @3fflineear Monitoring in slo s!eed devices @3ffline
3il Analysis @3ffline or 3nline
Vibrations Monitoring@3ffline or 3nline
9tGs !ossible monitoring allfailures modes and
eliminate all risk0 but thechallenge is make at
minimum cost of o!eration
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
12/1712
Monitoring the Risk in ind 4arms in 3!eration
,,8 of failures modes based on senseGsins!ections and non7com!le) ins!ections@leakage0 noise0 tem!erature
128 of failures modes needs conditionmonitoring @vibrations0 ultrasonic0 electrical test
28 of failures modes fi)ed and !reventivemaintenance0 to eliminate the e)ternal factors
,,8 no need maintenance0 only s!are7!arts
*8 of failures modes needs redesign andcontinuous im!rovement
9n the industry the normal ratios for the different ty!es of maintenance to control the
o!erational risk at minimum cost.
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
13/171"
South America and Brazil ()!erience
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
14/171#
South America and Brazil ()!erience
9n South America the reliability strategy to monitoring and controlling the o!erational risk0starting at A!ril of 211 give the ne)t results&
1 MH in direct savings for the customers by re!airs I9$ @Iust in$ime ith loest level of lost !roduction0 in one year ofa!!lications of the risk monitoring
6o level of 640 under control by sym!toms monitoring for Brazil0minor than the target of 1.'J
6o level of 640 under control by sym!toms monitoring for %hile0Argentina and 8ruguay0 minor than the target of 1.'J
9m!rovement the commissioning and end of arranty !rocess itha lo im!act in 64
ith the models0 in a middle indo of time @and de!ending of thety!e of contract the time of sto!!ed turbine by maintenance ill bereduce in a #J
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
15/171'
Structure to Su!!ort the +ynamic Risk Modeling and Monitoring
A3M ' is a !erformance guarantee centred around measuring energy
based availability
Fi7e steps to esta5lishing lost production per WTG in the 3ind farm
9rimar6
neigh5ouringtur5ine
(
Secondar6
neigh5ouringtur5ine
1
WTG nacelleanemometer
,
$u5 heightanemometer
located at themeteorolog6mast nearestto the WTG
*
A7erageproduction fortur5ines of the
same modeland 3ith the
sameconfiguration
2
1WTG2
#
"
'
$he risk that gets
eliminated ith
(nergy based Availability
+ 19%
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
16/17
-A
1*
-
8/13/2019 Risco operacional - elica
17/17
#op6right Notice
$he documents are created by Vestas ind Systems A;S and contain co!yrighted material0 trademarks0 and other !ro!rietary information. All rights reserved. ?o !art of the documents may be re!roduced or co!ied in any form or by any
means 7 such as gra!hic0 electronic0 or mechanical0 including !hotoco!ying0 ta!ing0 or information storage and retrieval systems ithout the !rior ritten !ermission of Vestas ind Systems A;S. $he use of these documents by you0 or
anyone else authorized by you0 i s !rohibited unless s!ecifically !ermitted by Vestas ind Systems A;S. Kou may not alter or remove any trademark0 co!yright or other notice from the documents. $he documents are !rovided :as is= and
Vestas ind Systems A;S shall not have any res!onsibility or liability hatsoever for the results of use of the documents by you.
$hank you for your attention
4or %ontact&Bernardo Reyes %ruz0 Vestas MediterraneanbereyLvestas.com'*72/22'F22
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]