Download - Metodos de d Poblacion
M_ ARITMETICO
AΓO POBLACION1993 11802005 11382007 1124 Pf= Poblacion Futura2010 1108 Pa= Poblacion Actual2015 1082 r= Razon2020 1056 t= Tiempo2025 10302030 10032035 9772040 951 r1= -7.002045 925 r2= -3.5002050 898
HUAYAN
rp= -5.250
ππ=ππ+πβπ‘
M_ GEOMETRICO
AΓO POBLACION1993 11802005 11382007 11242010 12032015 13482020 15112025 16922030 18962035 21252040 2380 r1= 1.0322045 2667 r2= 1.0142050 2988
HUAYAN rp= 1.023
ππ=ππ+π^((π‘βπ‘_0))π=β(βπ‘&ππ/ππ)
METODO PARABOLICO
AΓO POBLACION1993 11802005 11382007 1124 AΓ±o Base= 19932010 2935 x=02015 43962020 62852025 8604 AΓO X X2 Y2030 11352 1993 0 0 11802035 14529 2005 12 144 11382040 18135 2007 14 196 11242045 221712050 26635
HUAYAN
Y=A+Bx+Cx21993 A+B(0)+C(0)= 38872005 A+B(12)+C(144)= 46112007 A+B(14)+C(196)= 4972
En A:A+B(0)+C(0)= 3887
A= 3887
En B:A+B(12)+C(144)= 461112B+144C= 724
En C: A+B(14)+C(196)= 4972 B14B+196C= 1085 ###
###Entonces:
B= -42.667 ###C= 8.583 ###
######
π=π΄+π΅π₯+πΆπ₯^2
METODO DE LA CURVA EXPONENCIAL
AΓO POBLACION1993 11802005 11382007 1124 AΓ±o Base= 19932010 2941 x=02015 42812020 64392025 99152030 155132035 245282040 39047 2045 624312050 100090
MACATE
Entonces:PASO 1
PASO 2
PASO 3
PASO 4
BPASO 5 c= 1.1 ###
###PASO 6 a=3887-b
a= 745.73 ### ###
PASO 7######
b= 434.27
Y=π+ππ^π₯
π_1993=3887=π+ππΆ^0π_2005=4611=π+ππΆ^12π_2007=4972=π+ππΆ^14
3887=π+ππΆ^0π=3887βππ+ππΆ^12=4611πγ (πΆ γΜ 12β1)=724
π+ππΆ^14=4972πγ (πΆ γΜ 14β1)=1085(π(π^14β1))/(π(π^12β1))=724/1085
πγ (πΆ γΜ 12β1)=1085π=1085/(γ (0.82)γ^12β1)
METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES
AΓO POBLACION1993 1180 -42 -282005 1138 -142007 11242010 11102015 1081 m= nΒ° decenas aparte del ultimo aΓ±o2020 1046 primer periodo de incremento2025 1003 segundo periodo de incremento2030 9532035 8972040 833 -282045 7622050 685 -28
HUAYAN
valores de m:m1: 0.3 1110.14m2: 0.8 1081.44m3: 1.3 1045.74 m4: 1.8 1003.04m5: 2.3 953.34m6: 2.8 896.64m7: 3.3 832.94m8: 3.8 762.24m9: 4.3 684.54
ππ=ππ+γπβγ _1+(π(π+1))/2 β_2
β_1=(β_11+β_12)/2=
β_1=β_2=
β_1 β_2
β_2 =
γ γππ _2010=γ γππ _2015=γ γππ _2020=γ γππ _2030=γ γππ _2025=γ γππ _2035=γ γππ _2040=γ γππ _2045=γ γππ _2050=
METODO DE LOS PORCENTAJES
AΓO POBLACION INCREMENTO %INCREMENTO1993 1180 -42 -3.5592005 1138 -14 -1.2302007 1124 -4.7902010 11122015 1093 (%Pr) = -0.3422020 10742025 10552030 10362035 10162040 9972045 9782050 959
HUAYAN
valores de N:N1 3 1112.464N2 8 1093.237N3 13 1074.011 N4 18 1054.784N5 23 1035.558N6 28 1016.331N7 33 997.104N8 38 977.878N9 43 958.651
ππ=ππ+(ππ (%ππ)(π))/100
γ γππ _2010=γ γππ _2015=γ γππ _2020=γ γππ _2030=γ γππ _2025=γ γππ _2035=γ γππ _2040=γ γππ _2045=γ γππ _2050=
METODO DE INCREMENTO MEDIO TOTAL
AΓO POBLACION n LOG(Pa) LOG(1+r) / N Prom Log(1+r)1995 1180 5 3.072 -0.003 -0.0022000 1138 5 3.056 -0.0012005 1124 5 3.0512010 10972015 10712020 10452025 10202030 9952035 9712040 9482045 9252050 903
HUAYAN
Log Pf = Log Pa + N x Log(1+r)/N
1097.0051070.6581044.9431019.847995.353971.447948.116
925.345903.120
γ γππ _2010=γ γππ _2015=γ γππ _2020=γ γππ _2030=γ γππ _2025=γ γππ _2035=γ γππ _2040=γ γππ _2045=γ γππ _2050=
METODO DE MALTHUS
AΓO POBLACION VALOS DE A1993 1180 -42 -0.035593222005 1138 -14 -0.0123022852007 1124 -0.0478955052010 10452015 9262020 820 -0.0242025 7272030 6442035 5702040 5052045 4472050 396
HUAYAN
1045.17925.87820.19726.58643.65570.18505.10
447.45396.38
βππππ=
ππ=ππ γ (1+β)γ ^πγ γππ _2010=γ γππ _2015=γ γππ _2020=γ γππ _2030=γ γππ _2025=γ γππ _2035=γ γππ _2040=γ γππ _2045=γ γππ _2050=
METODO DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS
Y = a+bx
n = 3
AΓO = Xi P = Yi Xi * Xi Xi*Yi MACATE
1993 1180 3972049 23517402005 1138 4020025 22816902007 1124 4028049 2255868
Ζ©total 6005 3442 12020123 6889298
b = -3.83a = 8804.87209302
Y = a+bxY = -516446.58 + 266.28 X
AΓO (X) POBLACION Yi2010 11152015 10962020 10772025 10582030 10392035 10202040 10012045 9822050 962
π= (β_(π=1)^πβππ)/πβπ (β_(π=1)^πβππ)/ππ=(π β_(π=1)^πβππππββ_(π=1)^πβππ β_(π=1)^πβππ)/(π β_(π=1)^πβγγ γππ ^2β[β_(π=1)^πβππ]^2 γ )
METODO RACIONAL
Pr= Pa+V*to+Mov. Migratorio
v= (Ζ©N -Ζ©D)/n = 144.667
AΓ±o P (N):Nacimiento (D):difuntos (N-D)1993 1180 96 15 812005 1138 148 41 1072007 1124 267 21 246Ζ©total 511 77 434
HUAYAN
Pr= Pa+V*to+Mov. MigratorioP1= 1558.000
AΓ±o Poblacion P2= 2281.3332010 1558 P3= 3004.6672015 2281 P4= 3728.0002020 3005 P5= 4451.3332025 3728 P6= 5174.6672030 4451 P7= 5898.0002035 5175 P8= 6621.3332040 5898 P9= 7344.6672045 66212050 7345
METODO DE LA CURVA LOGISTICA
AΓO POBLACIONPo 1995 1180 Ps= (2Po*P1*P2-P1*P1(Po+P2))/(Po*P2-P1*P1)P1 2000 1159 Ps= 2318P2 2005 1138
2010 1117 a= ln((Ps/Po)-1)2015 1096 a= -0.03624212020 10752025 1054 b= ln((Po*(Ps-P1)/(P1*(Ps-Po)))2030 1033 b= 0.03624212035 10132040 992 P= Ps/(1+e^(a+b*t))2045 972 P= 1117.012050 951 P1= 1096.06
HUAYAN P2= 1075.14t 3 P3= 1054.27
t1 4 P4= 1033.48t2 5 P5= 1012.77t3 6 P6= 992.15t4 7 P7= 971.64t5 8 P8= 951.25t6 9t7 10t8 11
