analisis junio 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
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_[LHJQ@[ILR AJQLALR HLR _@RJR( ZDLR!cttp=,,www$pblj$djt - pbljOpblj$djt
Zd _rigjrl aj G`yl aj033>( sj jdbjdai h` hh`-
g` prlhjt`ri` jd h` biua`a
aj Bcib`fl( aldaj jh gl-
vigijdtl lkrjrl hiajr ud`
bldtudajdtj cujhf` fj-djr`h ` hl h`rfl aj JJZZ$
Hls rjbh`gls ajh prlhjt`-
ri`al jst aludiajdsj jd
tlrdl ` h` rjaubbid aj h`
mlrd`a` aj 0> ` 0; clr`s(
hls `ugjdtls s`h`ri`hjs y
h` gjmlr` aj h`s bldaibil-
djs h`klr`hjs( nujrld b`-
h`dal jdtrj jh pujkhl tr`-
k`m`alr$ H` rpia`
jxtjdsid aj h` cujhf` ci-zl tjgkh r hls bigijdtls
ajh flkijrdl aj h` p`trld h
y`dqui$ Jh xitl `rrlhh`alr
aj h` cujhf` prlhjt`ri` jd
`qujh _rigjrl aj G`yl
ajsjdb`ajd h` nuri rj-
prjsiv` aj h` kurfujs`
y`dqui( quj `ph`st bld
krut hia`a ihigit`a` ` h`
plajrls` glvihiz`bidlkrjr`$ Rib`rils p`trld -
hjs( ` sujhal ajh jst`al dlrtj`gjri-
b`dl( irrugpijrld blgl c`gpldjs(
`sjsid`dal ` ajbjd`s aj tr`k`m`al-
rjs$ H`s nujrz`s rjprjsiv`s ajh rfi-
gjd g`s`br`rld y ajtuvijrld ` gi-
hjs aj cujhfuist`s( slgjtials ` hls
gldt`mjs muaibi`hjs ajh `p`r`tl js-
t`t h kurfus$ Ajbjd`s aj airifjd-
tjs lkrjrls nujrld jmjbut`als jd h`
clrb`( ltrls t`dtls bldajd`als `
b`ajd` pjrpjtu`( gijdtr`s gihjs
gs nujrld ajstjrr`als$
Cj `c h` rjspujst` brigid`h bld h`
quj h` p`r sit`ri bh`sj algid`dtj
lksjqui( lksjqui` y
lksjqui r ` tlals
`qujhhls tr`k`m alrjs
quj( bldsbijdtjs aj
quj mudtls prlaubjd h`
tlt`hia`a aj h` riqujz`
y sj `fif`dt`d( ajbi-ajd ajbir k`st`( `dtj
t`dt` jxphlt bid( gi-
sjri y ajfr`a`bid$
_lr jhhl( js igprjsbid-
aikhj rjbldstruir ud
glvigijdtl lkrjrl s-
hia`gjdtj lrf`diz`al
jd tlrdl ` ud` airjb-
bid rjvlhubild`ri y
`ua`z( b`p`z aj rjpj-hjr hls `t`qujs y p`s`r
` h` lnjdsiv`$
Rjgjm`dtjs alsis aj
tjrrlr b`pit hist jd
Bcib`fl quj t`dtl
rjblra`rld h` lrf
s`dfuid`ri` ajs`t`a`
plr h` kurfujs` nr`d-
bjs` bldtr` hls cjrli-
bls blggud`ras aj h`_`rs idsurrjbt ( `pj-
d`s 0: `ls `dtjs #0360)-( ajs`t`-
rld ud` plajrls` lh` aj slhia`ria`a
idtjrd`bild`h bld hls aifdls lkrjrls
`sjsid`als y rjprjs`hi`als( ajdud-
bi`dal sid bldtjgph`bildjs jh s`h-
v misgl rjprjslr aj h` kurfujs (
glstr`dal ` gihhldjs aj tr`k`m`al-
+$$$h` prigjr` [jvlhubid Rlbi`hist aj Lbtukrj jd 0906( dl t`ra di ud sjfudal jd ajbh`r r blglnjstivia`a d`bild`h tlals hls _rigjrl aj G`yl( jd rjbujral y cldlr aj hls lkrjrls aj Bcib`flg`s`br`als plr jh b`pit`hisgl$ Rj idtjrd`bild`hiz`k` ajniditiv`gjdtj jh A` aj h` Rlhia`ria`a _rl-hjt`ri`( njbc` blgk`tiv` quj jxclrt k` ` h` bh`sj tr`k`m`alr` aj tlals hls p`sjs ` udirsj y lrf`-diz`rsj( ` ajstruir aj r`z h` g`quid`ri` rjprjslr` ajh Jst`al kurfus( ` jg`dbip`rsj ajh yufl aj
h` jxphlt`bid y h` lprjsid b`pit`hist`s$+
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
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rjs h` nlrt`hjz` idjxpufd`khj ajh prl-
hjt`ri`al bu`dal stj pijds` y `bt`
blgl ud slhl pul$ Jd gjglri` aj
`qujhh` fjst` prlhjt`ri` aj Bcib`fl(
`clf`a` jd s`dfrj plr hls b`pit`his-
t`s( jh Bldfrjsl Idtjrd`bild`h Lkrj-
rl -rjudial prjbis`gjdtj jd _`rs
#0339)-( ajbh`r`k` jh _rigjrl aj G`-
yl blgl A` aj h` Rlhia`ria`a _rlhj-
t`ri`$ D`b` jh a` ajh tr`k`m`alr$
_lbl ajspus( jh prigjr Jst`al
Lkrjrl y B`gpjsidl surfial ajh
triudnl cistribl aj h` prigjr` [jvl-
hubid Rlbi`hist` aj Lbtukrj jd 0906(
dl t`ra di ud sjfudal jd ajbh`r`r
blgl njstivia`a d`bild`h tlals hls
_rigjrl aj G`yl( jd rjbujral y cl-
dlr aj hls lkrjrls aj Bcib`fl g`s`-
br`als plr jh b`pit`hisgl$ Rj idtjrd`-
bild`hiz`k` ajniditiv`gjdtj jh A` ajh` Rlhia`ria`a _rlhjt`ri`( njbc` blg-
k`tiv` quj jxclrt`k` ` h` bh`sj tr`-
k`m`alr` aj tlals hls p`sjs ` udirsj
y lrf`diz`rsj( ` ajstruir aj r`z h`
g`quid`ri` rjprjslr` ajh Jst`al kur-
fus( ` jg`dbip`rsj ajh yufl aj h`
jxphlt`bid y h` lprjsid b`pit`hist`s$
Jh _BLJ( cly blgl `yjr( c`bj ud
hh`g`gijdtl ` lkrjrls y jgphj`als(
` h` muvjdtua( ajsjgphj`als y mukih`-als( ` b`gpjsidls y `utdlgls( `h
bldmudtl ajh pujkhl tr`k`m alr `p -
hj`al plr jh b`pit`hisgl gldlplhist`
aj Jst`al( ` rjbupjr`r h`s jsjdbi`s
aj ud` bjhjkr`bid cistrib` quj d`-
bj y shl blkr` sjdtial ajsaj h`s jd-
tr``s gisg`s ajh prlhjt`ri`al rjvl-
hubild`ril y slbi`hist`$
Gihhldjs aj tr`k`m alrjs sunrjd jdsus b`rdjs h` k`rk`rij b`pit hist`(
quj jsbh`viz` ` udls gijdtr`s g`d-
a` `h plzl ajh ajsjgphjl ` ltrls
t`dtls$ H` gisg` nuri` brigid`h bld h`
quj hls b`pit`hist`s jxphlt`rld y g`-
s`br`rld `h prlhjt`ri`al aj Bcib`fl(
js `phib`a` cly plr h` lhif`rqu` ni-
d`dbijr`( quj idtjdsinib` h` jxphlt -
bid `s`h ri`a` bldsbijdtj aj h`s
bldtr`aibbildjs irrjslhukhjs plr h`s
quj aisburrj y h`s higit`bildjs cist-rib`s aj su rj`bbild`ril glal aj
prlaubbid y rfigjd plhtibl$ H`
bldnlrg`bid aj khlqujs igpjri`his-
t`s pldj aj g`dinijstl quj h` hubc`
aj bh`sjs sj jxtijdaj ajsaj G`aria
` _jed( p`s dal plr Glsb l
Bcib`fl$
Jh _BLJ( `rg`al bld h` slhiajz tj-
ribl-prbtib` ajh slbi`hisgl bijdtnibl
y blgl p`rtj idtjfr`dtj y `v`dz`a`ajh prlhjt`ri`al( rjbldlbj ` h` bh`sj
lkrjr` blgl dibl sumjtl cistribl
rjvlhubild`ril b`p`z aj rjvjrtir h` id-
slstjdikhj situ`bid `btu`h( b`p`z aj
bldaubir ` h`s g`s`s h`klrils`s c`-
bi` jh slbi`hisgl$ Jh prlhjt`ri`al aj-
kj bldvjrtir jstj a` jd ud` mlrd`a`
aj hubc`( aj tlg` aj bldbijdbi`( aj
udia`a y aj lrf`diz`bid aj bh`sj$ @
pjs`r aj hls b`gkils lpjr`als jd jh
b`pit`hisgl jd su jt`p` igpjri`hist`(aj h`s glainib`bildjs sust`dbi hjs
jd h` jstrubtur` prlaubtiv` `h b`hlr
aj h` aivisid idtjrd`bild`h ajh tr`k`-
ml igpujst` plr h` kurfujs`( cly
_rlhjt`rils aj tlalshls p`sjs( udirls!
pf$0
H` kurfujsi` sj prjp`r`p`r` h` fujrr`$
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H` slhubid p`r` jh prlkhj-g` aj h` vivijda`= jh slbi`his-gl!
pf$>
Cly g`s quj dudb`( Nrjdtj
dibl ajh _ujkhl$ pf$ 3
Hls gldlplhils g`s nujr-tjs quj p`sjs jdtjrls
pf$ 0?
@dtj h` cujhf` jaub`tiv`ajh 9 aj g`yl
pf$ 00
RZG@[IL
+Y` dl c`y tijgpl di jsp`bil
p`r` rjividaib`r gjmlr`s ajudls bldvjdils quj c`dquja`al rjaubials ` p`pjhglm`al( p`r` ph`dtj`r bld-nhibtls `ish`als `klb`als `hnr`b`sl( p`r` gjdaif`r p`b-
tls idn`gjs di sjfuir brjyjd-al jd nr`uauhjdtls b`pit`his-
gls bld rlstrl cug`dl$
+Jh _BLJ( cly blgl `yjr( c`bjud hh`g`gijdtl ` lkrjrls y jg-phj`als( ` h` muvjdtua( ajsjg-phj`als y mukih`als( ` b`gpjsi-
dls y `utdlgls( `h bldmudtlajh pujkhl tr`k`m`alr `p`hj`alplr jh b`pit`hisgl gldlplhist`
aj Jst`al( ` rjbupjr r h`sjsjdbi`s aj ud` bjhjkr`bid
cistrib` quj d`bj y shl blkr`sjdtial ajsaj h`s jdtr``s
gisg`s ajh prlhjt`ri`al rjvl-hubild`ril y slbi`hist`$+
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
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gs quj dudb`( h` bh`sj lkrjr` si-
fuj sijdal h` nujrz` gltriz ajh ajs`-
rrlhhl slbi`h$ Cly gs quj dudb`( plr
su b`dtia`a y b`hia`a( jh prlhjt`ri`albujdt` bld h`s bldaibildjs lkmjtiv`s
prlpibi`s p`r` b`gid`r c`bi` h` `kl-
hibid aj h` prlpija`a priv`a` slkrj
hls gjails aj prlaubbid y h` jxphl-
t`bid ajh tr`k`ml `mjdl( k`sjs aj h`
`buguh`bid aj b`pit`h y lrifjd aj h`
ajfr`a`bid y gisjri` aj h`s g`s`s
h`klrils`s$
H` jsjdbi` aj h`s hjyjs udivjrs`hjs
quj rifjd jh sistjg` b`pit hist` sjg`dinijst` jd nlrg` aj brisis ajv`s-
t`alr`s y fujrr s aj r`pi` plr h`
bldquist` aj dujvls gjrb`als( plr
jh bldtrlh aj nujdtjs aj g`tjri`s pri-
g`s plr p`rtj aj hls gldlplhils(
quj pldjd ` su sjrvibil jstrubtur`sjst`t`hjs y supr`jst`t`hjs$ Ri h`s rj-
pjtia`s brisis dl c`bjd gs quj rj-
tlrbjr hls frihhjtjs ajh prlhjt ri`al(
h`s idv`sildjs igpjri`hist`s #cly jg-
klsb`a`s k`ml jh jpfr`nj aj fuj-
rr`s cug`dit`ri`s) sj bjdtr d jd
g`s`br`r ` hls pujkhls jd v`s aj
ajs`rrlhhl p`r jxplhi r sus rjbur-sls$ Jh igpjri`hisgl js ud` gquid`
fjdjr`alr` aj jxphlt`bid y gisjri`
p r` udls( y aj jsbh viz bid y
gujrtj p`r` ltrls$
Jstj _rigjrl aj G`yl( blgl tlals
hls a`s ajh `l( jh _BLJ vlhvjr `
s`hir ` h` b`hhj ` nudairsj bld jh prlhj-
t`ri`al( ` bldtrikuir jd su jhjv`bid
plhtib` j iajlhfib`$ R`har ` h` b`hhj
bld h` nirgj vlhudt a blgudist` ajtr`dsnlrg`r ` ud prlhjt`ri`al g`dsl(
ajslrf`diz`al y slgjtial jd ud`
bh`sj jd s y p`r` s( jd ud glvi-
gijdtl lkrjrl blgk`tivl( lrf`diz`al
y bldsbijdtj aj su plajr rjvlhubil-
d`ril$ R`har ` h` b`hhj ` ajdudbi`r jh
rj`bbild`ril bldsjdsl slbi`h y h`s
n`hs`s s`hia`s b`pit hist`s( quj dls
c`d hhjv`al `h `btu`h glgjdtl quj
vivigls ` ajdudbi`r( jd ajniditiv`( `hajb`ajdtj lplrtudisgl( vjdf` jstj
aj h` slbi`hajglbr bi ( ajh sidaib`-
hisgl rjnlrgist` l aj h`s ainjrjdtjs
sjbt`s izquijraist`s$ Jhhls sld t`g-
kid rjsplds`khjs airjbtls aj h` vl-
h`aur` aj h`s bldquist`s lkrjr`s gs
ksib`s( hlfr`a`s tr`s h`rf`s ab`-
a`s aj idn tif`khj hubc` prlhjt ri $
[jsplds`khjs aj h` ajp`upjr`bid(
ajsglvihiz`bid y jd`mjd`bid aj hls
tr`k`m alrjs( gih vjbjs tr`ibild`alsplr jstls sjrvialrjs aj h` kurfujs`$
H`s rib`s jxpjrijdbi`s cistrib`s ajh
prlhjt ri`al( jd sus bldst`dtjs
`v`dbjs y rjtrlbjsls( dl shl dls
gujstr`d bu`d djf`tivl y djn`stl
pujaj sjr jh tr`k`ml aj z`p` ajh
lplrtudisgl jd jh glvigijdtl
lkrjrl( sidl quj t`gkid pldj aj
g`dinijstl h` idlpjr`dbi` aj h`
gjr` hubc` sidaib`h y jbldlgibis-
t`$ Jh triudnl aj h` rjvlhubid sl-
bi`hist` y aj h`s nujrz`s prlhjt`ri`s
js idbldbjkikhj si h` hubc` bldtr`
h` kurfujs` dl `k`rb`( aj nlrg`
ai`hbtib`( hls nrjdtjs jbldgibl(
plhtibl j iajlhfibl$ H` rj`hia`a
g`tjri`h quj vivigls( bldnirg` hl
jstrih aj h` hubc` jbldlgibist`(
`s blgl h` putrjn`bbid ajh lplr-
tudisgl$
Y` dl c`y tijgpl di jsp`bil p`r`
rjividaib`r gjmlr`s aj udls bldvj-
dils quj c`d quja`al rjaubials `
p`pjh glm`al( p`r` ph`dtj`r bldnhib-
tls `ish als `klb`als `h nr`b`sl(
p`r` gjdaif`r p`btls idn`gjs di sj-
fuir brjyjdal jd nr`uauhjdtls b`pi-
t`hisgls bld rlstrl cug`dl$ Bu`d-
al h` bldtr`aibbid dubhj r ajh
glgjdtl fir` jd tlrdl ` igpjri`his-
gl , slbi`hisgl #b`pit h,tr`k`ml)( y`
shl ud` v` tbtib` pujaj idsunh`r h`
nujrz` djbjs`ri` ` gihhldjs aj tr`k`-
m`alrjs v`puhj`als rjbupjr`r h`s
jsjdbi`s aj 033>( c`bjr aj h` udi-
a`a y h` slhia`ria`a aj bh`sj( pih`rjsg`jstrls ajh rjd`bjr prlhjt`ril$
Y jsl p`s` idajnjbtikhjgjdtj( plr
lrf`diz`r jh plajr plpuh`r ajsaj hls
gisgls bjdtrls aj tr`k`ml( ` tr`vs
+Bu`dal h` bldtr`aibbid du-bhj`r ajh glgjdtl fir` jd
tlrdl ` igpjri`hisgl , slbi`-hisgl #b`pit`h,tr`k`ml)( y` s-hl ud` v` tbtib` pujaj idsu-
nh`r h` nujrz` djbjs`ri` `
gihhldjs aj tr`k`m`alrjs v`-puhj`als rjbupjr`r h`sjsjdbi`s aj 033>( c`bjr aj h`
udia`a y h` slhia ria`a ajbh`sj( pih`rjs g`jstrls ajh
rjd`bjr prlhjt`ril$+
+H`s rib`s jxpjrijdbi`s cistri-b`s ajh prlhjt`ri`al( jd sus
bldst`dtjs `v`dbjs y rjtrlbj-sls( dl shl dls gujstr`d bu`ddjf`tivl y djn`stl pujaj sjr jh
tr`k`ml aj z`p` ajh lplrtudisgljd jh glvigijdtl lkrjrl( sidl
quj t`gkid pldj aj g`dinijstlh` idlpjr`dbi` aj h` gjr` hubc`
sidaib`h y jbldlgibist`$ Jh triud-
nl aj h` rjvlhubid slbi`hist` yaj h`s nujrz`s prlhjt`ri`s js id-bldbjkikhj si h` hubc` bldtr` h`kurfujs` dl `k`rb`( aj nlrg`
ai`hbtib`( hls nrjdtjs jbldgi-bl( plhtibl j iajlhfibl$+
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
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H` kurfujs s`kj guy kijdquj h` brisis sistgib` ajh b`pit his-
gl v` ` prlaubir rjspujst` plr p`rtj
aj h` bh`sj lkrjr` y hls sjbtlrjs pi-
s`als plr jstj b`pit`hisgl gldlpl-
hist` aj Jst al$ [jspujst s js-
pldtdj`s( sid airjbbid di
lrf`diz`bid( t`gplbl `rg`a`s bld
h` bijdbi ajh slbi`hisgl bijdtnibl(
bld jh _`rtial Blgudist` `usjdtj y
plr hl t`dtl ajstid`a`s `h nr`b`sl$
Rid jgk`rfl( js` rjspujst v` `
prlaubirsj pujs jh b`pit`hisgl jd js-
t` n`sj dl tijdj d`a` quj lnrjbjr `
hls lkrjrls sidl c`gkrj( gisjri`( p`-
rl brdibl( ajs`cubils( jtb$ Rid jg-
k`rfl plr gjr` supjrvivjdbi`( h` bh`-
sj lkrjr` v` ` rj`bbild`r$ Jhhls hl
s`kjd y p`r` jhhl sj prjp`r`d jd tl-
als hls tjrrjdls= jbldgibl( iajlh-
fibl( plhtibl y blgl dl t`gkid jdjh rjprjsivl( pujs h` aibt`aur` aj h`
kurfujs` dl pujaj g`dtjdjrsj sid
vilhjdbi` slkrj hls jxphlt`als$
Jd jstj sjdtial rjbikigls als dlti-
bi`s$ H` prigjr` h` blgpr`( jd phjdl
aisbursl aj hls plhtibls kurfujsjs
slkrj h` `ustjria`a( aj gihjs aj
bc`hjbls `dtik`h`s bld hls quj jqui-
p`r ` hls bujrpls rjprjsivls ` sujhal
aj h` kurfujs $ _ r` jstl s quj
c`y aidjrl( pujstl quj js ud` djbj-
sia`a aj h` kurfujs jh `rg rsjc`st` hls aijdtjs p`r` c`bjr nrjdtj `
su bh`sj `dt`fdib`$ Js ud` djbjsi-
a`a ajh b`pit hisgl( plrquj p r`
bldtidu`r bld jh rlkl idaisbrigid`al
aj hls rf`dls ajglbrtibls prlhj-
t`rils( ` tr`vs aj h` @s`gkhj` aj
Blgits( Ajhjf`als y Qr`k`m`alrjs
#@BAQ)( `s blgl h` p`r`hjh` bld-
slhia`bid aj h` Bjdtr h dib` aj
Qr`k`m`alrjs( b`t`hiz`alr` aj h` rj-
bldstrubbid ajh sidaib`hisgl ajbh`sj jd jh bldmudtl ajh Jst`al js-
p`lh( ud` Bjdtr`h Lkrjr` y Rlbi`-
hist`$ Lrf`diz`r h` rjsistjdbi` plpu-
h`r jd hls k`rrils y bjdtrls aj
jstuail( jd jh b`gpl y h` biua`a( y
quj( k`ml jh hiajr`zfl ajh prlhjt`ri`-
al( bldslhiaj h` blhugd` vjrtjkr`h
ajh slbi`hisgl= jh Nrjdtj dibl ajh
_ujkhl #NZ_)$ Bldstruir jh Jmrbitl
_rlhjt`ril b`p`z aj jdnrjdt r ` h`
rj`bbid y hiquia`r `h Jst`al aj hlsgldlplhils( b`p`z aj tlg`r jh pl-
ajr j idst`ur`r h` aibt`aur` rjvlhu-
bild`ri` ajh prlhjt`ri`al$
Ajb` jh fr`d hajr ajh prlhjt`ri`al
gudai`h -Hjdid-( ud _rigjrl aj G`-
yl aj 09?1=
Als gudals sj `hz`d nrjdtj `nrjdtj jd jst` fr`dails` hubc` jhgudal ajh b`pit`h y jh gudal ajhtr`k`ml( jh gudal aj h` jxphlt`-bid y h` jsbh`vitua( y jh aj h` nr`-tjrdia`a y h` hikjrt a$ _lr ud`
p`rtj( c`y ud pu`al aj riblsp`rsitls$ Jd sus g`dls sj bld-bjdtr`d hls t`hhjrjs y h`s nkrib`s(h`s cjrr`gijdt`s y h`s gquid`s$C`d bldvjrtial gihhldjs aj
cjbtrj`s aj tijrr` y gldt``s ajaidjrl jd su prlpija`a priv`a`$C`d cjbcl ajh flkijrdl y jh jmr-bitl sus bri als( nijhjs fu rai -djs aj h` riqujz` quj c`d `bu-guh`al$
_lr ltr` p`rtj( c`y gihhldjs ajajscjrja`als( lkhif`als ` suphi-b`r ` hls ribls pjrgisl aj tr`k`ml
p`r` jhhls$ Brj`d bld su tr`k`ml
tla` h` riqujz`( gijdtr`s jhhlsgisgls tijdjd quj hubc`r tla` h`via` plr ud pja`zl aj p`d( gjd-aif`r jh tr`k`ml blgl ud` higls-d`( `flt`r sus nujrz`s y `rruid`rsu s`hua jd tr`k`mls idslplrt -khjs
Jd jstj _rigjrl aj G`yl aj ;?02 jh
_BLJ( `sugijdal h`s rib`s jd-
sj`dz`s jg`d`a`s ajh slbi`hisgl
bijdtnibl( idn tif`khj ` h` clr` aj
ajs`rrlhh r su plhtib` aj g`s`s y
sidaib`h( c`bj suy`s aj dujvl h`s
p`h`kr`s ajh fr`d airifjdtj blgudis-
t` rusl$ Blgl b`si sijgprj subjaj
bld Hjdid( sus jsbritls p`rjbjd c`-
kjr sial rja`bt`als cly gisgl=
Dl c`y nujrz` quj puja` vjdbjr`h prlhjt`ri`al( plrquj su tr`k`mljs hl dibl quj slstijdj ` h`s bh`-sjs flkjrd`dtjs y `h flkijrdl$
Dl c`y jd jh gudal nujrz` b`p`zaj `ph`st`r ` gihhldjs aj lkrjrls(b`a` vjz gs bldsbijdtjs( udi-
als y lrf`diz`als #)B`g`r a`s lkrjrls! _rjp`r-gldls bld rjalkh`a` jdjrf` p`-r` jh blgk`tj ajbisivl quj sj`bjrb`! Puj sj jstrjbcjd h`s ni-h`s aj hls prlhjt`rils slbi`hist`s!
Puj su vlz sj prlp`fuj bld `g-phitua b`a` vjz g`ylr! Puj h``fit`bid jd tlrdl ` h`s rjividai-b`bildjs lkrjr`s sj ajsphijfujb`a` vjz gs bld g`ylr `ua`bi`!Puj h` bjhjkr`bid ajh _rigjrlaj G`yl `tr`if` ` dujstr` b`us`
` gihjs aj dujvls blgk`tijdtjs yjdfrlsj dujstr`s nujrz`s jd h`fr`dails` hubc` plr h` hikjrt`a ajtlal jh pujkhl( plr h` jg`dbip`-
bid aj tlals hls tr`k`m`alrjsajh yufl ajh b`pit`h!
^iv` h` hubc` aj h` bh`sj lkrjr`!
^iv` jh _rigjrl aj G`yl!
_rlhjt`rils aj tlals hls p`sjs(
udls!
_lr h`s @s`gkhj`s aj Blgits( Aj-
hjf`als y Qr`k`m`alrjs y jh Nrjdtj
dibl ajh _ujkhl!
Bldstruy`gls slbi`hisgl!
Blgisid aj Glvigijdtl lkrjrly aj g`s`s ajh Blgit Bjdtr`h
ajh _`rtial Blgudist` Lkrjrl Js-p`lh #_BLJ)
H@KZ[FZJR@RJ _[J_@[@_@[@H@FZJ[[@
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` hls lkrjrls djbjsit`d quj
jstls gisgls lkrjrls sj`d
sugisls plr hl bivih l plr hl
brigid`h$
Js ajbir( bu`dal jh `albtri-
d`gijdtl iajlhfibl kurfus
n`hh`( y hls lkrjrls plr gjr`
supjrvivjdbi jgpijz`d `
ph dtj`rsj hls rlkls quj
sunrjd blgl sld h` phusv`h`
y hls rjblrtjs$
_h`dtj`gijdtls tla`v
jrrtibls y jspldtdjls(
plrquj sid jh _`rtial Blgu-
dist` blgk`tijdal js` iajl-
hlf` kurfujs` dudb` v`gls ` iajd-
tinib`r `h jdjgifl#h` kurfujs`) di a`rh` rjspujst` `ajbu`a`#h hubc` plr
jh slbi`hisgl jd tlals hls tjrrjdls)
Blgl quijr` quj ` d`aij hj fust
quj hj rlkjd( y jd jst` plb` putrj-
n`bt` ajh b`pit`hisgl jh rlkl js gs
jviajdtj j idaisiguh al quj dudb`(
jh `albtrid`gijdtl iajlhfibl kur-
fus pujaj n`hh`r$ @ajgs h`s lrf`-
diz`bildjs rjvlhubild`ri s jgpijz`d
tgia`gjdtj ` tjdjr jbl jdtrj h`sg`s`s$ Jsl js hl quj tjgj h` kur-
fujs`( y h` v` p`bnib` aj js` hubc`
` gujrtj quj g`dtijdjd bldtr` h`
bh`sj lkrjr` sj c`bj idvi`khj$
Jdtldbjs rjburrjd `h `rg` aj algi-
d`bid aj bh`sj aj quj jhhls sj c`d
alt`al( quj js jh Jst`al y hls bujr-
pls rjprjsivls= plhib`( jmrbitl( jtb$
Jhhl hl ajgujstr` h`s rjbijdtjs g`-
dilkr`s y jmjrbibils tbtibls y prjp`-r`tlrils aj bldtr` aisiajdbi` urk`d`
quj vijdjd ajs`rrlhh`dal jd jh sjvi-
hh`dl jst`ail aj H` B`rtum` udia`ajs
aj hitj aj hls bujrplr rjprjsivls
aj h` kurfujs` jsp`lh`= h` Zdia`a
aj B`k`hhjr ( hls FLJR( h` Zdia`a
aj Fu`s B`didls( Zdia`ajs gltlri-
z`a`s( aj suksujhl( h` Z_[ y h` tris-
tjgjdtj n`gls` I_$
Js ajbir( h`s udia`ajs
ajdlgid`a`s jd hjd-
fu`mj blhlqui h `dti-
aisturkils jstd ajs`-
rrlhh`dal mlrd`a`s aj
nlrg`bid y b`p`bit`-bid `rg`als bld jh
gs glajrdl g`tjri`h
rjprjsivl rjbid `a-
quirial( p`r` jdnrjdt r
` h` bh`sj lkrjr`$
Lkvi`gjdtj tlal jstl
bld jh sihjdbil bgphi-
bj aj hls g`ss gjai`
ajh b`pit`h( aj h` kurfujs`( quj b`-
hh`d y sihjdbi`d dltibi`s blgl jst s
pujs dl bldvijdj pukhib`r quj hls
bujrpls rjprjsivls sj jstd prjp`-
r`dal p`r h` vilhjdbi` idaisbrigid`-
a` bldtr` h` bh sj lkrjr`$ @ tlal hl
gs quj c`d hhjf`al hls phugihh`s `
sujhal aj h` kurfujs` js ` ainudair
h` dltibi aj h` jxcikibid `dtj js-
blh rjs aj h`s `btivia`ajs aj jstls
bujrpls( h`s `btivia`ajs gs plhti-
b`gjdtj blrrjbt`s sj jdtijdaj$ Rirvj
`ajgs blgl `albtrid`gijdtl ` hls
mvjdjs( bldnirg`dal `s h` k`t`hh`iajlhfib` sid bu rtjh quj ph`dtj` h`
kurfujs`$ Bh`rl quj ajdtrl aj jst`s
jxcikibildjs( dl c`krd jxpujstl hls
jmjrbibils t`hjs blgl rlgpjrhj h` b`-
H` b r` +`g`khj+ aj jst`s mlrd`a`s= `albtrid`gijdtliajlhfibl ` hls cimls aj hls lkrjrls ` hls quj quj v`d `g`bc`b`r jd h` b`hhj$
+Ajdudbi`gls jh b`rbtjraj bh`sj ajh Jst`al( aldajjh plajr plhtibl hl lstjdt`h` kurfujs` ` h` quj sirvjdsugis`gjdtj hls flkijrdls
bjdtr`hjs( `utldgibls( gu-dibip`hjs( h` muaib`tur`( hlsgjai`( y jd jstj b`sl hls
bujrpls rjprjsivls$ _lr t`d-
tl dl plar c`kjr p`sl `hslbi`hisgl sid ajstruir jstjjst`al( sid h` ajstrubbid
aj jstls bujrpls rjprjsivlsbuy` nudbid js prjbis`-gjdtj h` fujrr` bldtr` jh
prlhjt`ri`al$+
+$$$Blgl quijr` quj ` d`aijhj fust` quj hj rlkjd( y jdjst` plb` putrjn`bt` ajh
b`pit`hisgl jh rlkl js gsjviajdtj j idaisiguh`al quj
dudb`( jh `albtrid`gijdtliajlhfibl kurfus pujaj
n`hh`r$ +
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
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kjz` aj ud plrr`zl ` ud p`arj aj n`-
gihi` lkrjrl `h quj ajs`cubi`( situ`-
bid jd h` quj prlk`khjgjdtj sj jd-
bldtr sjd gubcls aj hls dils
`sistjdtjs `h jvdtl$
Rid jgk`rfl( jhhls dl c`d vjdial `
jxcikirsj `dtj jsblh`rjs$ Jh a` aj
`sujtl( plr `s ajbirhl( dl js gs
quj ltrl jsh`kd aj jst` fujrr` bld-
tr` h` bh sj lkrjr`$ _lr gubcl quj
idtjdtjd jdf``r y gjdtir( plr gubcl
quj idtjdtjd lbuht`r( h` vjra`a sijg-
prj prjv`hjbj$ Qr`k`m`alrjs quj sj
jdbldtr`k`d jd jh jst`ail aj h` B`r-
tum` bldt`bt`rld bld jstj _`rtial
`h rg`als `bjrb` aj hls jmjrbibils
quj hhjv`d ` b`kl jstls idaiviauls$
_`rjbj sjr( quj ajdtrl aj jsls jmjr-
bibils jst k` h` prjp`r`bid p`r h`
b`rf` bldtr` g`dinjst`bildjs$ Zd
jmjgphl aj js`s g`dilkr`s( idaivi-
auls `t vi`als bld k`dajr`s aj
BBLL y ZFQ jr d rjaubials ` h`
nujrz` plr sus blgp`jrls aj h`
ZI_( bld jh nid aj ajglstr`r blgl sj
bldtrlh` plr h` vilhjdbi` ud` glvihi-
z`bid$ @ pjs`r aj quj js` glvihiz`-
bid sj` plr p`rtj aj lrf`diz`bildjs
quj sj situ`rd jd su h`al aj h` k`-
rrib`a`$
Zd` prujk` irrjnut`khj aj h` jxistjd-
bi` aj h` hubc` aj bh`sjs( y aj bgl
hls bujrpls rjprjsivls ` sujhal aj h`
bh`sj algid`dtj sj prjp`r`d p`r` h`
fujrr` bldtr` h` bh`sj algid`a`$
Ajdudbi`gls jh b`rbtjr aj bh sj
ajh Jst`al( aldaj jh plajr plhtibl hl
lstjdt` h` kurfujs` ` h` quj sirvjd
sugis`gjdtj hls flkijrdls bjdtr`-
hjs( `utldgibls( gudibip`hjs( h` mu-
aib tur ( hls gjai ( y jd jstj b`sl
hls bujrpls rjprjsivls$ _lr t`dtl dl
plar c`kjr p`sl `h slbi hisgl sid
ajstruir jstj jst al( sid h` ajstrub-
bid aj jstls bujrpls rjprjsivls bu-
y` nudbid js prjbis`gjdtj h` fujrr`
bldtr` jh prlhjt`ri`al$
Ajdudbi`gls `sigisgl h` blgphibi-
a`a aj hls p`rtials ajh rfigjd= __(
_RLJ( IZ( Z_YA jd jst` fujrr`
bldtr` h` bh sj lkrjr`( y jspjbi h-
gjdtj jh p`pjh ajh flkijrdl gudibi-
p`h ajh __ ajh jx mujz ]lial y aj h`
Mudt` aj @da`hub` flkjrd`a plr
jh _RLJ j IZ( quj rjbijdtjgjdtj
dlgkr `htl b`rfl jd @da`hub` `h
airifjdtj aj h` Jrtz`idtz` rjsplds`-
khj aj h` gujrtj aj ud `nibild`al `h
ntklh( ajkial `h usl idaisbrigid`al
aj pjhlt`s aj flg` y ajgs `rg`-gjdtl rjprjsivl$
Blgl vjgls p`trld h( p`rtials ajh
sistjg ( plhib s( mujbjs y pjrilais-
t`s `bt`d udials jd jst` hubc` bld-
tr` h` bh sj lkrjr`$ Js plr jhhl quj
hh`g`gls ` hls tr`k`m`alrjs ` lrf`-
diz`rsj jd su _`rtial( jh _BLJ( bld
jh nid aj rjvjrtir jst` situ`bid y jg-
pjz`r ` bldstruir hls idstrugjdtls aj
ajnjds` quj dls pjrgit d c`bjrnrjdtj ` jst` situ`bid$ Jhhls( hls kur-
fujsjs( v`d ` tjdajr b`a` vjz ` nlr-
g`s gs vilhjdt s y rj`bbild`ri s
aj algid`bid( js h` clr` aj a r
rjspujst` blgl bh`sj$
Blgisid aj `fit`bid y prlp`-f`da` ajh _$B$L$J$
H@ RLHZBID@H _[LKHJG@AJ H@^I^IJDA@( JHRLBI@HIRGL!
Ajdtrl ajh b`pit`hisgl h` vivijda`dl js ud ajrjbcl( sidl ud` gjr-b`db` gs bld h` quj hls b`pit`his-
t`s idtjdt d lktjdjr f`d`dbi s$ Js
ajbir( hls b`pit`hist`s idvijrtjd aidjrl
jd su bldstrubbid (prlaubjd aibc`gjrb`db` y ` p`rtir aj jhh`( gjai`d-
tj h` phusv`h` quj lktijdjd ajh tr`-
k`ml aj hls lkrjrls quj h` bldstru-
yjd( lktijdjd sus f`d`dbi`s$
Jh b`pit`hisgl js ud sistjg` jbld-
gibl quj dl tijdj blgl nid s`tisn`bjr
h`s djbjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl( sidl
prlpibi`r quj hls b`pit hist`s lktjd-
f`d b`a` vjz g`ylrjs f`d`dbi`s$ Js
ajbir( h`s vivijda`s quj sj bldstru-yjd dl tijdjd blgl nid`hia`a quj dl
c`y` didfd lkrjrl sid tjbcl( sidl
quj aibc` situ`bid dl prjlbup` jd
`kslhutl `h jgprjs`ril idglkihi`ril(
quj hl dibl quj kusb` js lktjdjr jh
g`ylr aidjrl plsikhj aj h` vjdt` aj
vivijda`s$
@s nudbild` jh sistjg` b`pit`hist`( sj
a` h` p`r`alm` quj jsls gisglslkrjrls quj bldstruyjd vivijda`s#l
prlaubjd blbcjs( l prlaubjd `hi-
gjdtls( l prlaubjd tlal) sj vjd pri-
v`als ajh `bbjsl ` js` gisg` vi-
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
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vijda` quj c`d bldstruial si dl tij-
djd jh aidjrl djbjs`ril p`r` p`f`rh`$
_lr t`dtl( jh prlkhjg` aj h` vivijda`
y hls prlkhjg`s aj h` bh`sj lkrjr`
jd fjdjr`h ajriv`d aj ud` situ`bidaj ud sistjg` jbldgibl( ajriv`d aj
h` n`ht` aj plajr plhtibl p`r` h` bh`sj
lkrjr` y dl pujajd ir dudb` sjp`r`-
als aj h` hubc` aj bh`sjs( aj h` hu-
bc` plhtib` plr h` supjr`bid ajh sis-
tjg` b`pit`hist` y h` idst`ur`bid ajh
sistjg` jbldgibl slbi`hist $ _lr
t`dtl( aislbi`r h` hubc` plr h` vivijd-
a` aj h` hubc` plr jh slbi`hisgl js
ud jrrlr$ Jh b`pit`hist` sijgprj plar
us`r h` nujrz` ajh Jst`al( blgl `r-g` bljrbitiv` aj ud` bh`sj slbi`h sl-
krj ltr`( p`r` `b`k`r bld h`s jxpj-
rijdbi s jspldtdj`s quj tr t`d aj
plajr nid ` jstj prlkhjg` c`kit`bil-
d`h$
Jh Jst`al b`pit hist`( blgl rjprj-
sjdt`dtj ajh plajr jbldgibl quj hl
bldtrlh` y ajh plajr plhtibl quj jd
dujstr` slbija`a pjrtjdjbj ` ud`
bh`sj slbi`h quj js h` kurfujs`( dl
aua r jd jbc r g`dl aj tlal jh
bldmudtl aj hjyjs( mujbjs( gjails rj-
prjsivls l sus h`b`yls gjails aj
blgudib`bid p`r` pjrsjfuir ` tlal
`qujh quj lsj bujstild`r h` prlpij-
a`a priv`a` aj hls gjails aj prl-
aubbid( jd jstj b`sl h` prlpija`a
plr p`rtj aj hls k`dbls y fr`dajs id-
glkihi`ri`s aj hls gihjs y gihjs aj pi-
sls y b`s`s v`b`s aj Rjvihh`$
_lrquj h` gisid aj jstj Jst`al( aj
jstj plajr( dl js s`tisn`bjr h`s dj-
bjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl sidl g`dtjdjr
jh sistjg` aj al-
gid`bid plhtib`
jd jh quj hls
lkrjrls( jsls
quj tlal hl prl-
aubjd idbhuia`s
h`s vivijda`s( tij-
djd quj jdtr`g-
p rsj c`st h`s
bjm s p`r` plajr
`bbjajr ` ud tj-
bcl aldaj blki-
m`rsj$ Blgl ajbigls( bu`hquijr` quj
sj jdnrjdtj ` jstl sjr rjprigial(
muzf`al y brigid`hiz`al plr hls
g`ss-gjai`$ Qlal tijdj blgl nid jh
g`dtjdjr jh glal aj prlaubbid b`-
pit`hist`$ Jstl hl vjgls a` tr`s a`
jd gihjs aj ajs`cubils jd Jsp``(
blgl h` kurfujs` c` tir`al aj jsj
plajr ajh Jst`al p`r` ajs`cubi`r `ud`s pjrsld`s quj slh`gjdtj quij-
rjd ud tjbcl aifdl k`ml jh quj plajr
vivir( l brigid`hiz` lpbildjs blgl h`
_@C rjh`bilddalhls bld frupls `r-
g`als$ Rj bldst`t` `s h` v`hiajz aj
dujstrl `dhisis$
Jstl ajdlt` quj ` h` bh`sj lkrjr`(
p`r` pldjr nd `h prlkhjg` jdagibl
ajh `bbjsl ` h` vivijda` hj c`bj n`ht`
h` bldquist` ajh plajr plhtibl$ Zd
plajr plhtibl( jg`d`al aj hls bjd-
trls aj tr`k`ml( aj hls k`rrils lkrj-
rls( aj h`s `s`gkhj`s aj mlrd`hjrls(
aj jstuai`dtjs quj tjdf` blgl prid-
bip`h y dibl nid jh s`tisn`bjr h`s dj-
bjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl y vifih`r quj
tlals `qujhhls quj sj hubr`d bld h`
tr`fjai` aj hls ajs`cubils( quj js-
pjbuh`d bld h` vivijda` l quj s`b`d
pidfjs kjdjnibils aj jst` situ`bid
dl puja`d hhjv`r ` b`kl t`d d`usj`-
kudal blgjtial$
Js ajbir( jh plajr plhtibl aj h` sl-
bija`a slbi`hist` quj pjrtjdjbjr `
h` bh`sj lkrjr` y ` hls sjbtlrjs pl-
puh`rjs y dl ` ud pu`al aj lhif`r-
b`s( k`dqujrls y jgprjs`rils quj
sld hls quj `btu`hgjdtj lstjdt`d tl-
al jh plajr plhtibl jd dujstr` slbij-
a`a$
Dl js ud prlkhjg` aj plhtibls bl-rruptls( pujs plr jsjdbi` tlals hls
plhtibls ajh sistjg` kurfus hl sld(
di aj blbcjs lnibi`hjs( di aj jxistjd-
bi` aj Blgudia`ajs @utdlg`s$
_lrquj ` nid aj bujdt`s( jstls p`rh`-
gjdtls( jstls plhtibls dl tijdjd jh
plajr rj`h sidl quj sld hls ttjrjs(
hls idstrugjdtls plr gjail aj hls
bu`hjs h` kurfujs` g`dtijdj su pl-
ajr aj bh`sj$ _lrquj quijd tijdj jhplajr jbldgibl bldtrlh jh plajr
plhtibl( plr t`dtl tlals hls g`hjs aj
h` bh`sj lkrjr` vijdjd a`als plr js-
tj sistjg` brigid`h hh`g`al b`pit`his-
gl jd jh quj ud` bh sj slbi h js
auj` aj tlals hls gjails aj prl-
aubbid$ Jst` situ`bid js `s c`y` l
dl brisis( c`y` l dl kld`dz`
jbldgib` jdtrj blgihh`s( plrquj h`
jxphlt bid b`pit hist` jxistir sijg-prj quj jxist` jh b`pit`hisgl jd bu`h-
quijr` aj sus nlrg`s$
_lr t`dtl( tlals `qujhhls quj prl-
gjt`d ` h` bh`sj lkrjr` quj gjai`d-
tj rjnlrg`s ajdtrl ajh p`rh`gjdtl l
` divjh gudibip`h plard `b`k`r bld
jst` situ`bid aj jxphlt`bid ajh
clgkrj plr jh clgkrj( hl quj js-
t`rd c`bijdal js jdf``r ` h` bh`sj
lkrjr`$
Qlals `qujhhls quj prlpufdjd
`ajgs gjaia`s rjnlrgist s blgl h`
a`bid jd p`fl( quj dl js gs quj
+$$jh prlkhjg` aj h` vivijda` yhls prlkhjg`s aj h` bh`sj
lkrjr` jd fjdjr`h ajriv`d aj
ud` situ`bid aj ud sistjg`jbldgibl( ajriv`d aj h` n`ht`aj plajr plhtibl p`r` h` bh`sjlkrjr` y dl pujajd ir dudb`
sjp`r`als aj h` hubc` aj bh`-sjs( aj h` hubc` plhtib` plr h`
supjr`bid ajh sistjg` b`pit`-hist` y h` idst`ur`bid ajh sistj-g` jbldgibl slbi`hist`$ _lrt`dtl( aislbi`r h` hubc` plr h`
vivijda` aj h` hubc` plr jh sl-bi`hisgl js ud jrrlr$ +
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
8/12
CLYGR PZJ DZDB@( N[JDQJ DIBL AJH _ZJKHLJh p`sl aj h`brisis dls hhjv` `
ud huf`r idbijrtl si
tjdjgls jd bld-
siajr`bid hls su-
bjsivls glvi-
gijdtls qujsurfjd y h`s plsi-
bildjs quj `alp-
t`d `brjait`als
jxpjrtls jd plh-
tib` lplsitlr `h
flkijrdl djln`s-
bist`$ IZ( Muhil @dfuit ( y p`rtials
quj sj supldjd aj h` izquijra` rjvl-
hubild`ri`( bldsugjd tlal su tijgpl
jd idvjdt`r ud a` si y jh ltrl t`g-kid( `slbi`bildjs( nlrg`s aj hu-
bc`s( lkmjtivls ` `hb`dz`r$ @s(
pujs( tjdjgls aldaj jhjfir= [jpu-
khib`( [jtir a` ajh Jurl( Khlquj
brtibl( Ajglbr`bi` y`( Bldstitu-
yjdtj( jtb$ jtb$ _jrl dl sj bldsifuj
a r ud slhl p`sl c`bi `ajh dtj
_lr qu< Idaua`khjgjdtj( plrquj
dl jdtijdajd quj h` plhtib` js ud `r-
tj y ud` bijdbi`( quj h` hubc` c` aj
sjr bijdtnib` l dl js d`a`( y plr jsl
tla`s h`s tjdt`tiv`s quj sld bh r`-
gjdtj psjualrrjvlhubild`ri`s sld
tr`f`a`s plr h`s nujrz`s `kslrvjdtjs
ajh sistjg`$
_`r` bjdtr`rdls( blgjdz`rjgls plr
ajbir quj tlals tijdjd jd blgd jhsjr `dtig`rxist`s kijd jd h` tjlr`(
kijd jd h` prb-
tib ( hhjf`dal `
h` bldbhusid
quj p r` jhhls
h`s bh sjs sl-
bi`hjs l dl jxis-
tjd l ajsjg-pj`d ud p`pjh
sjbuda`ril jd
jstj jpislail
cistribl$ H`
bldsjbujdbi`
suksifuijdtj dl
pujaj sjr ltr`
quj h` aj djf`r ` h` bh`sj lkrjr` su
p`pjh aj sumjtl rjvlhubild`ril$
Ajsprjbi`r ` h` bh`sj lkrjr` y djf`r-hj su p`pjh jd h` cistlri` dl js did-
fud` tldtjr`( supldj `k`dald`r `h
pujkhl ` h` ajriv`( hhjv`rhj ` ud b`-
hhjmd sid s`hia`( g`hf`st`r sus nujr-
z`s( `rruid`r sus idquijtuajs y su id-
aifd`bid( c`st` bldvjrtirhj jd ud
lkmjtl g`hj`khj jd g`dls ajh Jst`-
al b`pit`hist`$
Jh b`pit`hisgl js ud sistjg` aj jx-
phlt`bid jd jh quj jh p`trd sj jdri-
qujbj blgl bldsjbujdbi` aj rlk`r-
hj `h tr k`m alr jh prlaubtl aj su
tr`k`ml$ Hl quj `njbt` `h b`pit`hist` y
Jh b`pit`hisgl js ud sistjg`aj jxphlt`bid jd jh quj jhp`trd sj jdriqujbj blglbldsjbujdbi` aj rlk`rhj `h
tr`k`m`alr jh prlaubtl aj sutr`k`ml$ Hl quj `njbt` `h b`pi-t`hist` y ` su Jst`al sjrvialr(
js quj jh tr`k`m`alr dl prl-auzb`( plrquj jh sistjg` sj
vjdar` `k`ml idjxlr`khjgjd-tj$
ud rlkl `h tr`k`m`alr aj su vivijda`
y aj tlal jh aidjrl quj p`f plr jhh`(
jst`rd c`bijdal nh`bl n`vlr ` h` bh`-
sj lkrjr`$ Qjdf`d kujd` vlhudt`a l
dl( pjrl jst`rd c`bijdal gs a`l
quj kijd$
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p`r` ud nid guy sjdbihhl= h` tlg` ajhplajr plhtibl( h` bu`h dl sj prlau-
bir gjai`dtj jh ajpsitl aj ud` p`-
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sld hls quj c`bjd quj jst` slbija`a
nudbildj$
Jh nid js jh plajr lkrjrl y jh slbi`his-
gl( jh dibl sistjg` jbldgibl quj
tijdj blgl gisid s`tisn`bjr h`s dj-
bjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl$ Jh plajr sl-
bi hist` dl bldstruyj h`s vivijda`s
kusb`dal jh hubrl jbldgibl( sidl
rjvlhvjr jsj prlkhjg` quj tijdj h`bh`sj lkrjr`= jh tjdjr ud` vivijda`
aifd` y ud prlyjbtl aj via` aifdls$
Jd jh b`pit`hisgl( y gs t`h y blgl
sj ajs`rrlhh` djf`tiv`gjdtj( jst s
als lpbildjs sld quigjr`s$
_lr t`dtl( p`r` quj h`s vivijda`s quj
hls lkrjrls prlaubigls sj`d rj`h-
gjdtj dujstr`s y dl aj ud k`dbl l
aj ud bldstrubtlr (ajkjgls hubc`r
plr jh ajrrlb`gijdtl ajh b`pit`hisgl
y h` bldstrubbid ajh slbi`hisgl$
_lrquj si tlal hl prlaubigls= hls `hi-
gjdtls( h`s vivijda`s( jd ajniditiv`
tlal tipl aj gjrb`db`s y prlaub-
tls(plrqu tjdjgls quj `fu`dt r
quj dujstrls cjrg`dls aj bh`sj p`-
sjd c`gkrj( quj dujstrls cimls
jstd ajsdutrials l quj c`y` lkrj-
rls sid ud tjbcl aldaj blkim`rsj( ud
tjbcl quj c`d prlaubial ltrls lkrj-
rls blgl jhhls
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
9/12
` su Jst`al sjrvialr( js quj jh tr`-
k`m`alr dl prlauzb`( plrquj jh sistj-
g` sj vjdar` `k`ml idjxlr`khjgjd-
tj$ _lr jst` hjy
irrjnut`khj( tlal bu`dtl
sj c`f` ` jsp`ha`s aj
hls tr k`m alrjs dlpujaj surtir ud jnjbtl
tr dsnlrg`alr$ H`s
g`dinjst`bildjs idtjr-
bh`sist`s( js ajbir( aj h`
biua`a`d`( tijdjd h`
virtua aj ajglstr r jh
jst`al aj digl jd
fjdjr`h( pjrl dl `tiz`d
di pujajd `tiz`r `h bl-
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jdriqujbidalsj( plr-
quj su nujdtj aj riqujz` sifuj g`-
d`dal jurls$ H` bh sj lkrjr`( h`s
bh`sjs tr`k`m`alr`s jd su bjdtrl aj
tr`k`ml( bldstituyjd h` nujrz` vit`h j
idsustituikhj bld h` quj jh pujkhl c`
aj bldt`r lkhif`tlri`gjdtj( l gjmlr
aibcl( ` h` quj jh pujkhl c` aj sj-
fuir( si quijrj quj sus prltjst`s rj-
suhtjd jxitls`s$
_jrl h` bh`sj lkrjr` sj c`hh` rjbhuia`
tr`s h`s bu`trl p`rjajs aj su bjdtrl
aj tr`k`ml( aldaj h` c`d hhjv`al h`
tr`ibid aj hls fr`dajs sidaib`tls y h`
aj hls p`rtials p`rh`gjdt rils$ Rj
jdbujdtr` pujs( ajs`gp`r`a`( ` h`
vjz quj prjs` aj ud`s hjyjs quj
prtib`gjdtj h` c` blhlb`al jd si-
tu`bid aj ihjf`hia`a$ Qla` `bbid
quj quijr` hhjv`r ` b`kl h` bh sj
lkrjr` sj jdbujdtr` bld ud
lkstbuhl ids`hv`khj= h` hjy$ H` rj-
nlrg` h`klr`h js hjy h`s cujhf`s aj
slhia`ria`a plr blgp`jrls ajspjai-
als jstd prlcikia`s plr hjy jh ajs-
pial js hikrj plr hjy hls bldvjdils
sld `duh`als plr jh p`trd `h `gp`rl
aj h` hjy$ H`s cujhf`s jstd `duh`a`s
idairjbt`gjdtj( dl c`bj n`ht` quj h`
ihjf`hibjd bld ud` hjy airjbt`( h` bh`-
vj sj c`hh` jd quj plbl ` plbl( plr
d`a` sj plar c`bjr cujhf` plrquj
h` hjy prltjfj h`s b`us`s ajh ajsbld-
tjdtl$
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tr`k`m`alr glvjrsj$ H` plhtib` bjr-
bjd` tla`s h`s plsikihi-
a`ajs aj nrjd`r jh
`v`dbj igpjtulsl ajh
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alrjs y h`s b`p`s pl-
puh`rjs dl pujajd s`-
hir ` h` ajsjspjr a`(
sid lrijdt`bid bh`r`( y
slkrj tlal utihiz`dal
plr `rg` h` hubc`
jbldgib`( quj `dtjs
aj jgpjz`r c` sial
tugk`a` plr hls flh-pjs quj c` rjbikial aj
h` plhtib ( plr h`s hj-
yjs$ H` hubc` tijdj quj sjr plhtib`
ajsaj hls bjdtrls aj tr`k ml( sjr
jdtldbjs( bu`dal jd h` b hhj tlgj
bujrpl ud prlfr`g` rjvlhubild`ril
+Ajsprjbi`r ` h` bh`sj lkrjr`
y djf`rhj su p`pjh jd h` cis-tlri` dl js didfud` tldtjr`(supldj `k`dald`r `h pujkhl` h` ajriv`( hhjv`rhj ` ud b`-hhjmd sid s`hia`( g`hf`st`r
sus nujrz`s( `rruid`r sus id-quijtuajs y su idaifd`bid(
c`st` bldvjrtirhj jd ud lkmj-tl g`hj`khj jd g`dls ajh Js-
t`al b`pit`hist`+$
_`r` rlgpjr h`s hjyjs c`y qujs`htrsjh`s$ Y dlsltrls ajbi-
gls= v`gls ` jxpldjr `hpujkhl( v`gls ` ihjf`hiz`rdls
p`r` vlhvjr `h pudtl aj p`rti-a`< DL( I[JGLR @ H@ CZJHF@FJDJ[@H _LHIQIB@( dl blglud nid( sidl blgl jh blgijdzl
aj ud prlbjsl aj b`gkils prl-nudals aj h` slbija`a c`st`
hlfr`r jh iaj`h sukhigj quj jd-tr`` hls tr`k`m`alrjs( sjr
aujls aj su ajstidl$ Puj dlqujp` aua`( hubc`rjgls p`r`
hlfr`r jh slbi`hisgl$
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
10/12
H` riqujz` prlaubia` plr h`sbh`sjs tr`k`m`alr`s aj tlals hls
p`sjs sj `buguh y bldbjdtr`b`a` vjz jd gjdls g`dls$ H`s
aj hls aujls aj hls gldlplhils$
`hf` jstj `rtbuhl p`r` ihustr r
bld binr`s bgl jh b`pit h `bu-
guh`al plr `hfudls aj jsls gl-
dlplhils supjr`d h` riqujz` prl-
aubia` plr p`sjs jdtjrls$
@hfud`s binr`s jsbh`rjbjd jst`bldbjdtr`bid aj riqujz`= ` bl-
gijdzls aj ;?02 @pphj pjs`k`
jd klhs` jh jquiv`hjdtj `h prjsu-
pujstl aj Nr`dbi` l h` sug` aj
hls _IK rug`dl( cdf`rl( jshl-
v`bl( brl`t` y hitu`dl$ H` sh` bi-
nr` aj djflbils aj h` blgp``
pjtrlhnjr` `dfhl-clh`dajs [l-
y`h Autbc rjprjsjdt` h` `btivia`a
aj tlal jh [jidl Zdial aur`dtjals gjsjs y gjail$
@ pjs`r aj h` b`dtia`a aj tr`k`-
`alrjs quj sj bldbjdtr` jd ud`
slh` jgprjs` blgl js jh b`sl
aj V`h-G`rt( quj jgphj` ` ;(0
gihhldjs aj `s`h ri`als( hls
prlpijt rils sj pjrgitjd jh humlaj bcuhj`rhls y g`rj`rhls bld
`bujrals quj dl bugphjd$ Q h
js jh b`sl ajh prlaubtlr aj `bj-
rl dgjrl udl ajh gudal( @bj-
hlr Gitt`h( quj bujdt` bld ;?gih
tr`k`m`alrjs ajh gjt`h y quj c`
bjrr`al v`rils clrdls jd Nr`d-
bi`( ` pjs`r ajh hhlriqujl tj`trjrl
ajh Jst`al nr`dbs$
_lr bit`r `hfudls jmjgphls gs(
h` binr` aj djflbils aj JSSLD
GL^IH # 313; gih gihhldjs aj
ah`rjs)( jquiv`hj ` tlal hl prl-
aubial jd Dlrujf` h` aj Qlyl-
t` #;:1 gih gihhldjs aj ah`rjs)(
`h _IK aj Frjbi h` aj Bcid`
_jtrlhjug #109 gih gihhldjs aj
ah`rjs)( `h aj @ustr`hi` l h` aj
^lhesw`fjd #;:1 gih gihhldjs ajah`rjs) `h aj Jfiptl$
Jstls fr`dajs gldlplhils
jbldgibls y nid`dbijrls tjmjd
IDQJ[D@BILD@HHLR GLDL_LHILR GR NZJ[QJR PZJ _@RJRJDQJ[LR
bld nujrz ( bld gjt`s ajnidia`s(
sjr jdtldbjs bu`dal jh b`pit h sj
rjsijdt`( pujs sj rjkjh` h` nujdtj aj
su riqujz`$ Y` dl js plsikhj pjds`r
jd p`sitls( jd rjnlrg`s jtb( quj sld
t`d ihjf`hjs blgl h` hubc` plr jh sl-
bi hisgl$ _`r bldsjfuir quj h` rj-nlrg` h`klr`h( quj hls rjblrtjs( quj
h` hjy aj jaub`bild y tlal bu`dtl c`
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h`s hjyjs c`y quj s`htrsjh`s$ Y dl-
sltrls ajbigls= v`gls ` jxpldjr
`h pujkhl( v`gls ` ihjf`hiz`rdls p`r`
vlhvjr `h pudtl aj p`rtia`< DL( I[J-
GLR @ H@ CZJHF@ FJDJ[@H _L-
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jh prlaubtl ajh jst`al aj digl ajh
pujkhl( h` cujhf` fjdjr`h plhtib` tij-
dj quj sjr bldstruia` flhpj ` flhpj(
tr`gl ` tr`gl( `rrlhh`dal ` b`a` p`-
sl h` hjf hia`a quj dls igpiaj `h
lkrjrl( `h tr`k`m`alr( `h jstuai`dtj y
`h vjbidl( sjr hikrjs$ C`y quj udir tl-
a`s h`s nujrz`s k ml ud prlfr`g`
blgd aj tr`dsnlrg`bildjs( ` tr`vs
aj ud` lrf`diz`bid aisbiphid`a ( y
jsl( plr gs vujht` quj sj hj quijr`
a`r( sj hh`g` N[JDQJ ZDIBL AJH
_ZJKHL( quj tjdar quj sjr lrijd-
t`a` plr h` v`dfu`rai` iajlhfib` bu-yl dlgkrj js _@[QIAL BLGZDIR-
Q@$
CLY GR PZJ DZDB@(
N[JDQJ DIBL AJH _ZJKHL
_`rtial Blgudist` LkrjrlJsp`lh
Njajr`bid aj Mlvjdjs Blgu-dist`s aj Jsp``
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
11/12
_jsj ` quj jd ud pridbipil h`s gj-aia`s quj jstd sijdal `alpt a`splr jh `h gs rj`bbild`ri aj hls
p`rtials kurfujsjs jh Jmjbutivl `b-
tu`h `s blgl h`s subjaia`s `dtj-
rilrgjdtj( puja`d p`rjbjr h`s buhp`-
khjs aj h` situ`bid jaub`tiv` quj
cly p`ajbjgls( ajkjgls sj`h`r y
ajsbukrir quj h` vlrfidj aj ajfr`-
a`bid aj dujstr` jdsj`dz` ajriv`
airjbt gjdtj aj h` d`tur`hjz` idcj-
rjdtj `h sistjg` b`pit`hist`$ H` situ`-
bid `btu`h ajh sistjg` aj prlaub-bid ajh gisgl c`bj quj h`
kurfujs` djbjsitj ud` jaub bid
quj jdfjdarj ud` muvjdtua lkrjr`
sid `pjd`s bu`hinib`bid$
_lr bldsifuijdtj( jdbldtr`gls quj
h`s gjaia`s quj c`d jmjbut`al jh
Flkijrdl y h` Blgudia`a aj G`aria
tijdjd blgl lkmjtivl bldtidu`r `rti-
buh`dal jh sistjg` jaub`tivl `h sjr-
vibil ajh b`pit`h( utihiz`rhl blgl cj-
rr gijdt` aj h` kurfujs p r`
dutrirsj aj dujstr` muvjdtua lkrjr` y
jstuai dtj( jd `r`s aj bldtidu`r h`
@DQJ H@CZJHF@JAZB@QI @ AJH 9 AJ G@YL
ud` tupia` y lp`b` rja aj nihi`hjs y
rjh`bildjs b`pit`hist`s$ Jd ;?00 trjs
idvjstif`alrjs aj h` Jsbujh` _lhitb-
dib` Njajr`h aj ]uribc pukhib`k`d ud
jstuail sjfd jh bu`h 626 nirg`s
bldtrlh`k`d jhh`s sh`s jh 3?* aj h`s
2$??? slbija`ajs tr`dsd`bild`hjs
jstuai`a`s$
Dl js plr supujstl ud njdgjdl
dujvl( plrquj blrrjspldaj ` h` n`sj
gs `v`dz`a` ajh b`pit hisgl quj
js jh igpjri`hisgl$ Y` hl glstr Hj-
did ` blgijdzls ajh sifhl SS=
Jstls a`tls dls pjrgitjd vjr b-
gl sj jxtijdaj h` jspjs` rja aj
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aj jxphlt`bildjs aispjrs`s jd ud`
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ajspus$
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bldtrlh plr p`rtj aj hls tr`k`m`alrjs
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pujs bijrt` p`rtj aj hls pjqujls`bbildist`s aispjrsls dl tijdjd jd
h` prbtib` didfud` plsikihia`a aj
tlg`r p`rtj jd h`s `s`gkhj`s fj-
djr`hjs( jtb$ H` +ajglbr`tiz`bid+
aj h` plsjsid aj h`s `bbildjs( aj
h` bu`h hls slnist`s kurfujsjs y
hls prjtjdaials slbi`hajgbr`t`s
quj sld lplrtudist`s jspjr`d #l
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gl kritdibl+$
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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013
12/12
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