sesgo de proporcion
Post on 03-Jun-2018
218 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
1/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
Prctica sobre:
EL SESGO DE PROPORCIN
Material complementario:
Fernnde!"errocal# P$ % Se&'ra# S$ ()**+,$ El ses&o de porporci-n$ En P$
Fernnde!"errocal % C$ Santamar.a (Eds$,# Manual prctico de
psicologa del pensamiento$ (P&s$ +)/!+0/,$ "arcelona: 1riel$
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
2/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
EL SESGO DE PROPORCIN
Diego Alonso (Universidad de Almera)
yPablo Fernndez Berrocal(Universidad de Mlaa)
23ere are di44erent 5a%s o4 e6pressin& t3e probabilit% o4 an e7ent$ One o4
t3em consists o4 t3e 'se o4 ratios$ 23's# one can sa% 4or e6ample# t3at t3e
probabilit% o4 8 3appenin& is 9+ in )*9$ 23is can &i7e place to a ratio bein&
e6pressed b% means o4 di44erent n'mbers: 9+ in +*9# +* in +**9# etc$ In spite o4
t3e mat3ematical e'i7alence o4 t3e t5o pre7io's ratios# a s'rprisin&
p3enomenon 3as been obser7ed 53en ;'d&in& t3e probabilit% o4 a lo5
probabilit% e7ent: man% people ;'d&e it as less probable 53en it is e6pressed as
a ratio o4 small n'mbers (e$ &$# + in )*, t3an o4 lar&e n'mbers (e$ &$# +* in )**,$
23is p3enomenon is
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
3/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
5innin& t3an ba& 1 (4or e6ample# A in +** 7s$ + in +*B Denes!Ra; ? Epstein#
+@@,$ In t3is st'd% o4 Denes!Ra; and Epstein# almost 3al4 o4 t3e participants
pre4erred t3e option 9A in +**9 to t3e option 9+ in +*9$ Still
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
4/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
t5o in4ormation!processin& s%stems$ In most sit'ations# t3e t5o s%stems
operate s%nc3rono'sl%# people bein& onl% a5are o4 53at seems to be a sin&le
process# and in ot3er circ'mstances t3eir di44erences come to li&3t# as 3appens
in t3e R" paradi&m$
1ccordin& to CES2# t3e R" e44ect 5o'ld be attrib'ted to t5o 4acets o4 t3e
concrete processin& t3at carries o't t3e e6periential s%stem (Pacini and
Epstein# +@@@b,: t3e n'merosit% e44ect and t3e small!n'mbers e44ect$ In
accordance 5it3 t3e 4irst 4acet# t3e e6periential s%stem codes and 'nderstands
better 53ole n'mbers t3at ratios# beca'se n'mbers are more concrete t3an
relations bet5een n'mbers# 53ic3 is co3erent 5it3 ot3er 4indin&s s3o5in& t3at
t3e sensibilit% to 4re'encies !n'mbers ! is one o4 t3e more important co&niti7e
operations (Gallistel# +@@*B Gear%# +@@/B Staddon# +@AA,$ People code
a'tomaticall% t3e in4ormation abo't 4re'encies# pre7ailin& o7er ot3er more
rational considerations# s'c3 as ratios# 53ic3 can constit'te an important so'rce
o4 errors in probabilistic ;'d&ements (Pel3am# S'marta# and M%a
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
5/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
a&ainst a &ro'nd o4 man% more 53ite balls# and (0, t3e a't3ors ass'me t3e
a44irmati7e representation principle# accordin& to 53ic3 t3e e6periential s%stem
can code t3e positi7e representations (in t3is case# 9to e6tract a red ball9, more
easil% t3an t3e ne&ati7e representations (t3at is to sa%# 9not to e6tract a 53ite
ball9,# beca'se t3e a44irmation is more concrete t3an t3e ne&ation$
23e second 4acet# t3e small!n'mbers e44ect# consists in t3at# at t3e
e6periential le7el# small n'mbers are easier to 'nderstand t3an lar&e n'mbers
beca'se t3e% are more concrete (easier to 7is'alieB Pai7io# +@A,$ 23en# 53en
t5o e'i7alent lo5 probabilit% ratios are presented# one e6pressed 5it3 small
n'mbers and t3e ot3er 5it3 lar&e n'mbers# people 5ill 'nderstand better (at t3e
e6periential le7el, t3at t3e e7ent 3as a 7er% lo5 probabilit% o4 3appenin& 53en
t3e ratio is e6pressed 5it3 smaller n'mbers (Pacini and Epstein# +@@@aB
Gallistel# +@@*B Sie&ler# +@A+B S'rber ? aines# +@AH,$ 23at is to sa%# 4or
e6ample# t3e ratio +)* is more 'nderstandable and t3ere4ore more con7incin&
t3at it represents an e7ent o4 7er% lo5 probabilit% t3an t3e ratio +*)**# 53ic3
5ill ca'se t3at t3e s'b;ecti7e probabilit% in t3e 4irst case to be smaller t3an in
t3e second one$
1ccordin& to t3e e6planation pro7ided b% CES2# t3ese t5o 4acets o4 t3e
concrete t3in
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
6/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
ratio @*+**# t3e small!n'mbers e44ect 5o'ld ind'ce 's to c3oose @+* since
t3ese small n'mbers 5o'ld e6press more clearl% (4rom t3e e6periential s%stem,
t3e idea o4 a 3i&3 probabilit% 4or t3eir occ'rrence (Pacini and Epstein# +@@@b,$
>ir
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
7/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
1C2IID1D PRC2IC1
2' tarea 7a a consistir en comprobar el ses&o de proporci-n con otros
contenidos$ Para ello debes de pasar# de 4orma indi7id'al# a )* personas elsi&'iente c'estionario (7er 3o;a ad;'nta, en el 'e se describe 'na 3ipotticasit'aci-n de elecci-n$
Debes de leerle a cada participante el te6to completo % comprobar 'ese 3a comprendido$
na 7e terminada la reco&ida de datos (de los )* participantes,# debesanaliarlos estad.sticamente ('tiliando el estad.stico C3i!c'adrado, %4inalmente elaborar 'n in4orme en el 'e se e6pon&a con claridad % precisi-n('tiliando el 4ormato con7encional de presentaci-n de res'ltados
e6perimentales, el est'dio realiado$
Esta prctica p'ede 3acerse indi7id'almente o en &r'po (0 al'mnosascomo m6imo,
-
8/12/2019 Sesgo de Proporcion
8/8
Psicologa del Pensamiento
Ima&.nate 'e tienes delante de ti dos ca;as 'e contienen dos
tipos de 4i&'ras: coraones % trboles$
La ca;a pe'ea contiene +* 4i&'ras: @ coraones % + trbol(+* son trboles, La ca;a &rande contiene +** 4i&'ras: @* coraones % +*
trboles (+* son trboles,
Debes co&er# sin mirar# 'na 4i&'ra de 'na de las ca;as$ La ca;a'e tQ pre4ieras$ Si co&es 'n trbol &anas +** e'ros$
Lo interesante de esta sit'aci-n es 'e# a pesar de 'e la
probabilidad de &anar es la misma en las dos ca;as# al&'naspersonas pre4ieren 'na ca;a a otra$
Por 4a7or# contesta a las si&'ientes pre&'ntas (selalas con 'na8,:
+,' ca;a ele&ir.as tQ=
TTT la ca;a pe'ea
TTT la ca;a &rande
),' ca;a crees 'e eli&en la ma%or.a de las personas=
TTT la ca;a pe'ea
TTT la ca;a &rande
0,' ca;a crees 'e ele&ir.a 'na persona totalmente l-&ica=
TTT la ca;a pe'ea
TTT la ca;a &rande
top related