nafta, brexit, tpp: el futuro de las nuevas · el futuro de las nuevas configuraciones de la ......
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30 de Marzo de 2017
Logistic Summit & Expo 2017
NAFTA, BREXIT, TPP:
El futuro de las nuevas
configuraciones de la
cadena de suministro
3
• Se proyecta que el crecimiento mundial repuntará a 3.4% en 20171,2.
• El Brexit, referendo en otras naciones europeas, la presión mundial de
políticas populistas y aislacionistas y el reequilibramiento de China
afectarán los flujos comerciales globales1,2
• Se prevé una recuperación parcial del precio de las materias primas1,2
• Se prevé un crecimiento más lento del Reino Unido por la incertidumbre
post-Brexit (1.1% en 2017)2
• La reactivación de la zona del euro seguirá a una tasa ligeramente más
baja que en 2015.2
• Se prevé una recuperación parcial del precio de las materias primas2
Fuentes: (1) January 2017, Global Economic Prospects, A World Bank Flagship Report; (2) Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial,
Fondo Monetario Internacional, 2016.
Tendencias en la Economía Global
Exportación en 2015: 392 B USD
¿Hacia dónde exporta México?
Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).
7
Exportación en 2015: 392 B USD
Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).
Distribución de las Exportaciones de México
al Mundo en 2015
3
Equipos y Maquinarias36%
Transporte26%
Petróleo, Derivados y Minerales
7%
Exportación en 2015: 291 B USD
Distribución de las Exportaciones de México
a Estados Unidos en 2015
Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).
4
Equipos y Maquinarias39%
Transporte27%
Importación en 2015: 378 B USD
¿Desde dónde importa México?
Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).
7
Importación en 2015: 188 B USD
Distribución de las Importaciones de México
desde Estados Unidos en 2015
Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).
5
Equipos y Maquinarias39%
Transporte39%
Productos Minerales
11%
Plásticos y Gomas9.9%
Metales9%
Productos Químicos
7.6%
Importación en 2015: 2.16 T USD
¿Desde dónde importa Estados Unidos?
Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).
6
Exportación en 2015: 1.38 T USD
¿Hacía dónde exporta Estados Unidos?
Fuente: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (www.atlas.media.mit.edu/es/).
6
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Canada
China
Japan
Mexico
Importaciones de USA por país
Fuente: US Census Bureau
8
¿Es el déficit comercial el impulsador de los
cambios en TLCAN?
Fuente: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-world-map-of-u-s-trade-deficit/
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
Tasa de Cambio Peso-Dólar 4-ene-2017
Automotriz cancela la
construcción de su
planta en San Luis
Potosí9-nov-2016
Trump es elegido
Presidente de EEUU
1-ene-2017
Cambio de los
precios de las
gasolinas
23-jun-2016
El Reino Unido
anuncia su salida de
la Comunidad
Económica Europea
(BREXIT)
22-dic-2015
Tercer rescate
para Grecia
19-jul-2016
Donald Trump es
escogido como
candidato republicano
29-nov-2016
Trump anuncia que
Carrier mantendrá
1,000 empleos que
se iban a mover a
México
23-ene-2017
Trump anuncia salida
de EEUU del TPP
15-dic-2016
Banxico
incrementa su
tasa de interés a
5.75%; quinta
alza en el año
Marzo-2016
El dólar retrocede
0.33 por ciento con
respecto a una
canasta de seis
divisas
Abril-2016
El crudo tipo West Texas
Intermediate baja 4.02 por
ciento a 36.80 dólares por
barril, mientras que el Brent
disminuye 3.97 a 38.73 dólares
Varios eventos que aumentan la volatilidad y
los riesgos…
Fuente: Análisis de KPMG con datos de BANXICO
TLCAN
1994
TLC’s
concluidos en esta
Administración
Acuerdos: 11 de libre comercio | 46 países | 32 de inversión |
6 de complementación económica | 3 de alcance parcial.
Nuevos
Turquía Jordania
Profundización
TLCUEM Brasil
TLC’s en
negociación
Acceso preferencial a 46 países
58% PIB mundial | 53% comercio global | 1,150 millones
consumidores potenciales
Consolidación y acceso a nuevos
mercados
?
México a la vanguardia en política comercial
Fuente: OMC (International Trade and Market Access Database, abril 2015) y FMI (World Economic Outlook abril 2015).
TLCAN: Tratado de Libre Comercio para América del Norte. TLC: Tratado de Libre Comercio.
11
• Debemos cuidar el mercado del TLCAN porque representa la mayoría
de nuestras exportaciones e importaciones, las cuales son difíciles de
sustituir en el muy corto plazo.
• México es el segundo mercado más importante de las exportaciones
estadounidenses y el tercer socio comercial de Estados Unidos. Esta se
considera la relación bilateral colindante más importante a nivel global.
• Los sectores que tendrían un mayor impacto ante la salida de Estados
Unidos del TLCAN serían el agropecuario y el automotriz, además de la
energética, manufacturera, aeroespacial, y farmacéutica.
• Una reducción de las exportaciones mexicanas a USA traería como
consecuencia inmediata una reducción de las importaciones desde
USA, por lo cual no es conveniente para ese país y no modificaría el déficit
en su balanza.
• Si USA sale del TLCAN, los aranceles pasaría en promedio de 0 a entre
2 y 7%, si siguen las reglas de la OMC, lo que encarecería ligeramente
nuestras exportaciones en USA.
12
Posibles Impactos de estas Tendencias
Preguntas y respuestas
kpmg.com.mx
01800 292 KPMG
kpmg@kpmg.com.mx
Argenis BauzaSocio Líder de Cadena de Suministro y
Compras para América Latina
KPMG en México
© 2017 KPMG Cárdenas Dosal, S.C., la firma mexicana miembro de la red de firmas miembro independientes de KPMG afiliadas a KPMG International Cooperative
(“KPMG International”), una entidad suiza. Las firmas miembro de la red de firmas independientes de KPMG están afiliadas a KPMG International. KPMG International
no provee servicios a clientes. Ninguna firma miembro tiene autoridad para obligar o comprometer a KPMG International ni a ninguna otra firma miembro frente a
terceros, ni KPMG International tiene autoridad alguna para obligar o comprometer a ninguna firma miembro. Todos los derechos reservados.
Gracias
www.pwc.com
Know Your Supply Chain…
Amidst ever increasing supply chain complexity, it is becoming more imperative to understand the “who, what, and where” in the network
Pablo Guzman
March 2017
Companies who respond effectively to
crises show sustained market value
increases over others
Source: Knight / Pretty 1996 – 2010
22% increase in shareholder value
World Economic Forum estimates that the average fortune 500 companies loss $3.2B in market cap after a notable disruption
Supply chain events and disasters fall into
common categories
There are two pervasive supply chain
trends that are challenging supply chain
execution and introducing riskCompanies face higher expectations
Cost Containment, Corporate Social Responsibility, and Regulatory Changes place greater burdens on supply chains
85% of CEO’s believe successful organizations will be
required to Address Wider Stakeholder Needs over the next 5 years2
Supply chains are becoming complex
Lean Manufacturing, Outsourcing, and Product Customization initiatives are driving complexity and eliminating redundancies
55% of companies view Managing Complexity as a
Top 3 operations priority1
Sources:1. PwC Global Operations Survey, 20152. PwC Global CEO Survey, 2015
PwC
Trend 1
Complexity is Driving Increases in the Probability and Impact of Disruptions in the Supply Chain
74%
80%
87%
94%
95%
Number of entities in the…
Products and services are…
New product introductions…
Changes in the supply chain…
Dependencies between…
Percentage who agree
Trends in complexity and disasters are
exposing companies to increases in the
probability of supply chain disruption
Sources:1. PwC and the MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation, 20142. Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting and Catastrophe Perils, 20163. “An Empirically Derived Framework of Global Supply Resiliency.” Blackhurst, Dunn, and Craighead.
2011
• Total Natural and Man Made Disasters in this decade are expected to be more than double the number seen in the 1980s2
• Length and complexity in supply chains is exposing supply chains to higher levels of disruption3
• Interdependencies in supply chains now cause rippling effects
Trends in Supply Chain Complexity since 20101
Supply chain complexity is also driving
increases in the cost of disruptions
Sources:1. Business Continuity Institute Supply Chain Resilience Reports, 2011-20152. μ = 4.7M, σ = 29.2M
Average Cost of Disruptions 2011-20151
• We would expect about 1 in 2000 companies to experience a “mega” disruption where cost exceeds $100M
• In reality, closer to 1 in 100 companies will experience this type of disruption in a given year
• “Tail risk” events occur more often based on the interconnectedness of global supply chains, and we tend to underestimate our exposure
The Rise of “Mega” Disruptions
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Size
of
Dis
rup
tio
n (
in $
M)
Worst 3% Worst 10% Average
PwC
Trend 2
Increased Stakeholder Expectations Create Further Execution Challenges, but Technology Implementation offers a Win-Win Scenario
Greater transparency and evolving
stakeholder needs are creating challenges
for supply chain execution
Source: PwC Global CEO Survey, 2015
71%
81%
87%
…develop a purpose centered around creating
value for wider …
…report on financial and non-financial matters
…address wider stakeholder needs
Percentage who agree
• Technology is creating greater transparency, allowing individuals to access information on what companies do and the impact of their actions
• Increased reporting expectations come at a time when the global regulatory environment is becoming more uncertain
• 81% of CEOs believe the future will be defined by multiple jurisdictions1
Successful Organizations in 5 years will…1 Effect of Technology on Reporting Expectations
Supply chain regulatory changes pose
challenges to efficiency goals
Source: PwC Global CEO Survey, 2015
Major Supply Chain Regulatory Changes
UK Modern Slavery Act requires companies doing business in the UK to report steps taken to prevent human trafficking
Conflict Minerals rule adopted by the SEC detailing reporting requirements in the US related to the sourcing of certain minerals
2012
National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standardrequires the USDA to promulgate regulation establishing a disclosure guideline for bioengineered foods
US Drug Quality and Security Act outlines traceability requirements for prescription drugs sold in the US
2013
2015
2016
US Tax and Trade Policies under consideration include :Border tax adjustment on imports and exports, corporate Tax restructuring, and import duties and trade agreements renegotiations (among others)
Current
of CEOs around the world view increasing regulation as the top threat to business growth1
79%
of CEOs believe government and regulators have a high impact on their strategy1
69%
PwC
Putting it All Together
A Framework for Increasing Supply Chain Transparency and how One Company was able to Reduce Disruption Risk
Know your Supply Chain
“Know Your Customer” processes were created for financial institutions to understand who they were
conducting business with, and who was using their services (US Patriot Act). Controls include: Collection and analysis of basic identity information Name matching against list of known parties (e.g., politically exposed persons Determination of a customer’s risk potential (i.e., in terms of money laundering, terrorist financing, or
identity theft) Creation of an expectation of customer behavior Monitoring of customer behavior
“Know your Supply Chain” is a mindset of understanding the assets, partners (vendors, relationships,
etc.), and risks in a company’s supply chain with the following goals: Understand the where and how products are produced Prepare for and respond quickly to supply chain disruptions Comply with supply chain regulation reporting requirements
Companies need a framework for
managing supply chain risk amidst growing
complexityPrepare before a disruption happens
Understand network and partners, analyse risks,
disruption planning and exercising, monitoring
Key Outcome
Understand and plan for specific risks to the supply chain
Respond rapidly and effectively from day one
Response strategy, stakeholder management,
crisis management
Key Outcome
Implement risk monitoring and coordinated
crisis response plan
Get back to business and embrace the new normal
Recovery strategy
implementation, people and
project management
Key Outcome
Incorporate lessons learned
to increase supply chain
resilience
Implementation Step Information Requirements
Implementing this framework requires
detailed information about the supply chain
Prepare before a disruption happens
Understand and plan for specific risks to the supply
chain
Respond rapidly and effectively from day one
Implement risk monitoring and coordinated crisis
response plan
Get back to business and embrace the new normal
Incorporate lessons learned to increase supply chain
resilience
Detailed understanding of assets, suppliers, partners, and material flows
Technology systems to monitor supply chain and allow cross functional recovery coordination
Lessons learned captured during the incident to be incorporated into future scenario planning
Leveraging technology to increase supply
chain transparency can assist with supply
chain reporting and risk managementFinding a “Win-Win” between risk management and reporting
2/3rds of supply chain leaders are looking for ways to increase transparency in their supply chain1
Technology can drive a “win-win”, improving transparency to support both risk mitigation programs
and reporting requirements
Source: PwC Global CEO Survey, 2015
Managing Supply Chain Risk
Reporting and Compliance
Companies who apply leading supply
chain risk management practices do better
in important performance measuresPercentage of companies with 3 or more disruptive incidents that suffered at least a 3% impact on the defined metrics below:
41%28%
Market Value
Less Mature More Mature
57%44%
Revenue
Less Mature More Mature
80%
52%
Total Supply Chain Costs
Less Mature More Mature
13% more companies took at
least a 3% hit to market value
13% more companies took at
least a 3% hit to revenue
28% more companies took at
least a 3% hit to total supply chain costs
Source: PwC and the MIT Forum for Supply Chain Innovation, PwC 2014
Contact information
Operations
Mariano Escobedo 573Col. Rincón del BosqueT: +52 (55) 5263 -8948pablo.guzman.martinez@mx.pwc.com
Pablo GuzmanDirector
© 2017 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the US member firm or one of its subsidiaries or affiliates, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity.
Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
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