POBLACION CAJAMARCA

AÑO POBLACION1972 940,004.00

1973 953,164.06

1974 966,508.35

1975 980,039.47

1976 993,760.02

1977 1,007,672.66

1978 1,021,780.08

1979 1,036,085.00

1980 1,050,590.19

1981 1,063,474.00

1982 1,081,553.06

1983 1,099,939.46

1984 1,118,638.43

1985 1,137,655.28

1986 1,156,995.42

1987 1,176,664.35

1988 1,196,667.64

1989 1,217,010.99

1990 1,237,700.18

1991 1,258,741.08

1992 1,280,139.68

1993 1,297,835.00

1994 1,308,217.68

1995 1,318,683.42

1996 1,329,232.89

1997 1,339,866.75

1998 1,350,585.69

1999 1,361,390.37

2000 1,372,281.49

2001 1,383,259.75

2002 1,394,325.82

2003 1,405,480.43

2004 1,416,724.27

2005 1,428,058.07

2006 1,439,482.53

2007 1,455,201.00

Metodo RacionalP=(N+I)-(D-E)+Pf

Metodo Aritmetico

a) Poblacion Inter Censal b) Poblacion Post-CensalP=Po+r(t-to) r=(Pi+1-Pi)/(ti+1-ti) P=Pf+r(t-tf)

Año Poblacion r Año1998 1350585.68593739 19981999 1361390.37142489 10804.685487499 19992000 1372281.49439629 10891.122971399 20002001 1383259.74635146 10978.25195517 20012002 1394325.82432227 11066.077970812 20022003 1405480.43091685 11154.606594578 20032004 1416724.27436418 11243.843447335 20042005 1428058.06855909 11333.794194913 20052006 1439482.53310757 11424.464548473 20062007 1455201 15718.466892433 2007

r prom 10413.799

Para el 2006 Para el 2015

P= 1465614.79901013 hab. P=

Metodo de Interes Simple

P=Po[1+r(t-to)] r=(Pi+1-Pi)/[Pi*(ti+1-ti)]

Año Poblacion Pi+1-Pi Pi*(ti+1-ti) r1996 1329232.888811521997 1339866.75192201 10633.863110492 1329232.8888 0.0081998 1350585.68593739 10718.934015376 1339866.7519 0.0081999 1361390.37142489 10804.685487499 1350585.6859 0.0082000 1372281.49439629 10891.122971399 1361390.3714 0.0082001 1383259.74635146 10978.25195517 1372281.4944 0.0082002 1394325.82432227 11066.077970812 1383259.7464 0.0082003 1405480.43091685 11154.606594578 1394325.8243 0.0082004 1416724.27436418 11243.843447335 1405480.4309 0.0082005 1428058.06855909 11333.794194913 1416724.2744 0.008

r prom 0.008

Para el año 2015

P= 1542302.71404382 hab.

Metodo Geometrico

P=P*rE(t-to) r=ti+1-ti*(Pi+1/Pi)E1/2

Año Poblacion r1996 1329232.888811521999 1361390.37142489 3 1.00802002 1394325.82432227 3 1.01612005 1428058.06855909 3 1.0242

r prom 1.0161

Para el 2015P= 1675368.637

Metodo Incremento variable

Año Poblacion P1996 1329232.888811521997 1339866.75192201 10633.8631104921998 1350585.68593739 10718.934015376 85.0709048841999 1361390.37142489 10804.685487499 85.7514721232000 1372281.49439629 10891.122971399 86.43748392001 1383259.74635146 10978.25195517 87.1289837712002 1394325.82432227 11066.077970812 87.8260156412003 1405480.43091685 11154.606594578 88.5286237662004 1416724.27436418 11243.843447335 89.2368527572005 1428058.06855909 11333.794194913 89.950747579

Total 98825.179747575 611.40246065

Para el 2015

464.75

87.3432086649617

m= 3.333

P= 1429946.90325946

∆𝑃=

∆_2 𝑃=

Metodo Parabola

Año Poblacion1997 1339866.75192201 02001 1383259.74635146 42005 1428058.06855909 8

Metodo Parabola 3er grado

Año Poblacion X X^2 X^3 X^41996 1329232.88881152 -2 4 -8 161999 1361390.37142489 -1 1 -1 12002 1394325.82432227 0 0 0 02005 1428058.06855909 1 1 1 12006 1428058.135 2 4 8 16

6941065.28811777 0 10 0 34

Metodo Grafico

Metodo Curva Normal Logistica

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 850,000.00

900,000.00

950,000.00

1,000,000.00

1,050,000.00

1,100,000.00 METODO GRAFICO

AÑOS

POBL

ACIO

N

Metodo Minimos Cuadrados

Año Poblacion Xi Razon de crecimiento Yi(%) Log Yi (Xi)^2 XiYi1996 1329232.88881152 0.008 -2.096910013 1.767E+12 10633.91997 1339866.75192201 0.008 -2.096910013 1.795E+12 10718.91998 1350585.68593739 0.008 -2.096910013 1.824E+12 10804.71999 1361390.37142489 0.008 -2.096910013 1.853E+12 10891.12000 1372281.49439629 0.008 -2.096910013 1.883E+12 10978.32001 1383259.74635146 0.008 -2.096910013 1.913E+12 11066.12002 1394325.82432227 0.008 -2.096910013 1.944E+12 11154.62003 1405480.43091685 0.008 -2.096910013 1.975E+12 11243.82004 1416724.27436418 0.008 -2.096910013 2.007E+12 11333.82005 1428058.06855909

Sumatoria 13781205.5370059 0.072 -18.872190117 1.696E+13 98825.2Promedio 1378120.55370059 0.0072 -1.8872190117 1.696E+12 9882.52

Poblacion

Aritmetico Geometrico

Años despues del ultimo

censo

b) Poblacion Post-CensalP=Pf+r(t-tf) r=(Pi+1-Pi)/(ti+1-ti)

Poblacion r1350585.71361390.4 10804.691372281.5 10891.121383259.7 10978.251394325.8 11066.081405480.4 11154.611416724.3 11243.841428058.1 11333.791439482.5 11424.461455201 15718.47r prom= 10413.8

Para el 2015

1559339 hab.

Metodo Parabola 2do grado

Año Y Poblacion X1997 1339866.75 02001 1383259.75 12005 1428058.07 1

2016 2

X^5 X^6 XY X^2Y X^3Y-32 64 -2658465.778 5316931.5552 -10633863.1104922-1 1 -1361390.371 1361390.3714 -1361390.371424890 0 0 0 01 1 1428058.0686 1428058.0686 1428058.06855909

32 64 2856116.27 5712232.54 11424465.080 130 264318.18951 13818612.535 857269.666642049

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 850,000.00

900,000.00

950,000.00

1,000,000.00

1,050,000.00

1,100,000.00 METODO GRAFICO

AÑOS

POBL

ACIO

N

Xi Log Yi-2787282-2809580-2832057-2854713-2877551-2900571-2923776-2947166-2970743

-25903439-2590344

Poblacion

Aritmetico Geometrico

Años despues del ultimo

censo

X^2 X^3 X^4 XY X^2 Y0 0 0 0 01 1 1 15043 150431 1 1 15043 15043

Poblacion

Aritmetico Geometrico Aritmetico2005 1329232.88881 1328932.745 1.997555962007 1356326.265 1355726.659 0.440473782009 1362326.958 1364826.458 1.20426449

20011 1378932.958 1379532.625 0.7909317120013 1389926.326 1387926.562 2.5520105320015 1426326.324 1426523.458

Años despues del ultimo

censo

Crecimiento por decada

Geometrico Aritmetico Geometrico1.97635075 27093.3762 26793.9140.66673671 6000.693 9099.7991.06602531 16606 14706.167

0.6047825 10993.368 8393.9372.7056615 36399.998 38596.896

Crecimiento por decada

Incrementopor decada

AÑO MIGRACION NETA

1961 141972 231981 301993 32

1981 1993Agricultura 76.8 70.9

Minería 0.7 0.3Industria 7.3 7.3

Construcción 1.4 1.8

Comercio 4.1 6Transporte 0.9 1.3Servicios 8.9 12.2