trump y la relación comercial méxico estados unidos · 5. venezuela 2013 332 12 21 16.6 16.4 1.0...
TRANSCRIPT
November 2016
Trump y la relación comercial México –Estados Unidos
1
2
3
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1101
99
4
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Manufacturing employment USA Participación de México en importaciones EE.UU.
NAFTA China OMC
Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census Bureau y INEGI
Great Recession
Empleo manufacturero EE.UU
4Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics e INEGI
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Empleo manufacturero EE.UU Empleo manufacturero México
México
5Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau
R² = 0.0018
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
∆ E
mp
leo
man
ufa
ctu
rero
EE.
UU
∆ Participación México importaciones EE.UU
China
6Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau
R² = 0.3583
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
∆ E
mp
leo
man
ufa
ctu
rero
EE.
UU
∆ Participación China importaciones EE.UU
Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de Estados-Unidos
7Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau
13.5
20.8
0
5
10
15
20
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Mexico China Canada Japan Germany
Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de Estados-Unidos
8Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau
16.0
7.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
México China Canada Japón European Union
Mexico exportadorPart B Mexico Exports to major trading partners and duties faced
Major markets
Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports
in million95% trade in no.
oftraded TL margin TL Value
US$HS 2-
digit
HS 6-
digitSimple Weighted Weighted in % in %
Agricultural products
1. United States of
America2013 18,493 21 102 7.2 6.4 6.2 99.7 99.9
2. Canada 2013 1,480 12 56 6.8 0.9 0.9 96.8 99.9
3. European Union 2013 1,206 20 60 13.4 6.5 4.4 75.8 81.3
4. Japan 2013 876 17 58 13.2 12.2 7.4 65.1 44.0
5. Venezuela 2013 332 12 21 16.6 16.4 1.0 0.0 0.0
Non agricultural products
1. United States of
America2013 251,714 51 582 3.5 1.9 1.9 100.0 100.0
2. Canada 2013 24,193 43 351 3.3 2.8 2.8 100.0 100.0
3. European Union 2013 20,846 51 401 4.4 2.0 2.0 99.8 100.0
4. China 2013 10,094 31 188 9.0 5.3 0.0 11.3 64.0
5. Brazil 2013 5,695 44 299 13.1 20.2 17.5 29.0 74.5
9Fuente: OMC
Estados Unidos importador
10
UNITED STATES MFN applied duties Imports
Product groupsAVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free
in % in % in %
Animal products 2.2 30.8 26 0.4 24.9
Dairy products 17.2 0.3 188 0.1 14.2
Fruit, vegetables, plants 4.7 21.1 132 1.3 28.8
Coffee, tea 3.3 53.5 44 0.5 74.4
Cereals & preparations 3.0 20.1 44 0.7 31.5
Oilseeds, fats & oils 7.3 25.9 164 0.4 36.5
Sugars and confectionery 11.7 2.7 55 0.2 6.3
Beverages & tobacco 18.6 26.2 350 1.1 48.2
Cotton 4.8 38.3 18 0.0 79.0
Other agricultural products 1.0 61.0 52 0.3 67.5
Fish & fish products 0.8 84.6 35 0.8 90.4
Minerals & metals 1.8 60.9 38 12.5 73.4
Petroleum 1.3 0 11 13.4 0
Chemicals 2.8 40.8 7 9.8 65.0
Wood, paper, etc. 0.5 90.1 14 3.5 92.3
Textiles 7.9 15.0 41 1.9 12.6
Clothing 12.0 2.8 32 3.8 1.8
Leather, footwear, etc. 3.8 39.1 54 2.7 17.6
Non-electrical machinery 1.2 65.2 10 14.0 79.4
Electrical machinery 1.7 49.0 15 13.2 68.3
Transport equipment 3.1 55.3 25 13.0 15.0
Manufactures, n.e.s. 2.5 44.2 36 6.6 70.8
Fuente: OMC
Estados Unidos exportador
11
Part B Exports to major trading partners and duties faced
Major markets
Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports
in million 95% trade in no. of traded TL margin TL Value
US$ HS 2-digit HS 6-digit Simple Weighted Weighted in % in %
Agricultural products
1. China 2013 25,365 17 31 15.4 11.2 1.8 7.4 5.6
2. Canada 2013 21,256 27 254 22.4 12.0 5.8 91.7 97.5
3. Mexico 2013 19,557 30 406 22.2 38.4 37.3 96.0 94.4
4. Japan 2013 14,518 30 324 22.0 19.1 0.0 23.0 36.2
5. European Union 2013 12,163 28 168 14.7 4.7 0.0 14.0 49.2
Non-agricultural
products
1. Canada 2013 212,581 59 1,267 2.5 2.2 2.2 100.0 100.0
2. European Union 2013 200,485 65 1,388 4.4 1.5 0.0 24.0 66.1
3. Mexico 2013 163,907 69 2,350 8.8 7.7 7.5 99.4 99.1
4. China 2013 120,416 56 888 9.0 5.0 0.0 8.8 36.5
5. Japan 2013 54,081 63 1,066 3.0 0.7 0.0 55.5 84.8
Fuente: OMC
Mexico importador
12
México MFN applied duties Imports
Product groups
AVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free
in % in % in %
Animal products 29.8 5.6 150 1.2 2.6
Dairy products 27.0 3.1 75 0.5 9.0
Fruit, vegetables, plants 16.6 5.2 150 0.6 4.3
Coffee, tea 26.7 4.2 75 0.2 9.7
Cereals & preparations 13.1 15.2 75 1.8 61.0
Oilseeds, fats & oils 11.4 39.5 100 1.5 65.0
Sugars and confectionery 43.3 0 150 0.3 0
Beverages & tobacco 27.2 2.6 67 0.3 17.1
Cotton 0.0 100.0 0 0.1 100.0
Other agricultural products 6.7 47.6 36 0.6 57.0
Fish & fish products 17.0 9.6 20 0.2 9.4
Minerals & metals 2.8 75.6 15 12.0 80.4
Petroleum 0.1 98.1 5 6.8 97.9
Chemicals 2.4 72.2 27 12.5 56.9
Wood, paper, etc. 4.4 50.8 15 3.0 65.7
Textiles 9.8 11.4 25 2.4 21.8
Clothing 21.1 0 25 0.8 0
Leather, footwear, etc. 6.2 61.6 46 2.2 58.4
Non-electrical machinery 2.8 77.8 20 16.9 89.8
Electrical machinery 3.5 69.2 20 22.0 83.5
Transport equipment 8.5 45.7 50 9.3 49.5
Manufactures, n.e.s. 5.2 56.9 20 4.8 71.1
Fuente: OMC
Crecimiento promedio annual para el periodo 1994 - 2014
13
5.0
2.4
1.9
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
No
rth
Dak
ota
Ore
gon
Texa
sU
tah
Ari
zon
aSo
uth
Dak
ota
Co
lora
do
Idah
oN
evad
aC
alif
orn
iaW
yom
ing
New
Ham
psh
ire
No
rth
Car
olin
aW
ash
ingt
on
Okl
aho
ma
Min
nes
ota
Mas
sach
use
tts
Geo
rgia
Neb
rask
aFl
ori
da
Iow
aV
irgi
nia
Mar
ylan
dU
nit
ed S
tate
sA
rkan
sas
Mo
nta
na
New
Yo
rkV
erm
on
tTe
nn
esse
eN
ew M
exic
oSo
uth
Car
olin
aK
ansa
sA
lab
ama
Ind
ian
aD
elaw
are
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Wis
con
sin
Rh
od
e Is
lan
dP
enn
sylv
ania
Ken
tuck
yD
istr
ict
of
Co
lum
bia
New
Jer
sey
Mis
sou
riIll
ino
isA
lask
aM
issi
ssip
pi
Oh
ioLo
uis
ian
aM
ain
eW
est
Vir
gin
iaH
awai
iM
ich
igan
Fuente: US Bureau Census
Crecimiento anualT2-T3 2015
14Fuente: US Bureau Census
9.2
-3.4
1.9
3.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sou
th D
ako
taK
ansa
sIo
wa
Neb
rask
aId
aho
Haw
aii
Ind
ian
aM
on
tan
aW
isco
nsi
nU
tah
Min
nes
ota
Mic
hig
anM
isso
uri
No
rth
Car
olin
aSo
uth
Car
olin
aM
ain
eP
enn
sylv
ania
Co
lora
do
Mar
ylan
dK
en
tuck
yO
hio
Ala
bam
aO
rego
nM
assa
chu
sett
sA
rizo
na
Ten
nes
see
Rh
od
e Is
lan
dV
erm
on
tC
alif
orn
iaG
eorg
iaFl
ori
da
Mis
siss
ipp
iA
rkan
sas
Un
ited
Sta
tes
New
Ham
psh
ire
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Illin
ois
Lou
isia
na
New
Jer
sey
Dis
tric
t o
f C
olu
mb
iaV
irgi
nia
Del
awar
eW
ash
ingt
on
New
Yo
rkN
evad
aN
ew M
exic
oW
yom
ing
Texa
sO
klah
om
aA
lask
aW
est
Vir
gin
iaN
ort
h D
ako
ta
Tasa de desempleoMayo 2016
15Fuente: Bureau of Labour Statistics
6.7
2.5
4.75.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Ala
ska
Illin
ois
Lou
isia
na
Wes
t V
irgi
nia
New
Mex
ico
Dis
tric
t o
f C
olu
mb
iaA
lab
ama
Nev
ada
Mis
siss
ipp
iW
ash
ingt
on
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Sou
th C
aro
lina
Ari
zon
aW
yom
ing
Pen
nsy
lvan
iaR
ho
de
Isla
nd
Geo
rgia
Cal
ifo
rnia
Ken
tuck
yN
ort
h C
aro
lina
Oh
ioIn
dia
na
New
Jer
sey
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Flo
rid
aM
ich
igan
New
Yo
rkO
klah
om
aM
aryl
and
Ore
gon
Texa
sM
isso
uri
Wis
con
sin
Mas
sach
use
tts
Mo
nta
na
Ten
nes
see
Del
awar
eIo
wa
Ark
ansa
sV
irgi
nia
Min
nes
ota
Uta
hK
ansa
sId
aho
Mai
ne
Co
lora
do
Haw
aii
No
rth
Dak
ota
Ver
mo
nt
Neb
rask
aN
ew H
amp
shir
eSo
uth
Dak
ota
Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos
Mexico, 62,799, 28%
Canada9%
China17%
Japan9%
Germany7%
Korea5%
Taiwan2%
Italy2%
Thailand1%
Other20%
Total NAFTA37%
Fuente: UN Comtrade
Mexico, 41,563, 32%
Canada29%
China4%
Germany3%
United Kingdom3%
Japan2%
Australia2%
Brazil2%
Korea2%
Other21%
Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos
Total NAFTA61%
Fuente: UN Comtrade
@eledeceTwitter: @cmm_mx
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cmm.mx
18