presentation mida penang ahmadhadriharis
TRANSCRIPT
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Solar Photovoltaic:
The Green Technology Best Option
Ir. Ahmad Hadri [email protected]
Chief Technical Advisor, MBIPV ProjectMinistry of Energy, Green Technology & Water Malaysia
National Electronics Seminar, Penang
29th 30th November 2010
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Malaysia Green Technology Policy
Launched by YAB Prime Minister on 24th July 2009
Policy Statement
Green Technology shall be a driver to accelerate the national
economy and promote sustainable development.
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Vanguard 1 Satellite (1958): 1st solar PV
application
Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
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How does PV work?
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Source: MBIPV, 2009
1st Type 2nd Type
3rd Type
Types of PV Technology
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Daily PV Applications
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PV modules
Electrical
loads (AC)Electrical
loads (AC/DC)
Battery
InverterGrid supply/
connection
Controller
New: Mostly applied in urban areas
Does not require battery (utility grid as battery)
Inverter (critical) converts DC to AC
Excess electricity is sold to utility
Applied in remote areas / areas with no utility
supply (islands)
Requires battery (critical)
Controller regulates battery, can be connected
to DC load
Grid-connected PV Stand-alone PV
PV in Power Generation Sector
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World Solar PV Installed Capacity
(1995-2009)
9Source: REN21
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World Solar PV Market Share (2009)
10Source: REN21
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Future Prospect: PV Supply (to 2014)
11Source: Navigant Consulting Inc
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PV Experience Curve
12Source: Navigant Consulting Inc, AMAT
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Market Perspective & Price Reduction
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Malaysia kWp/Year Germany MWp/Year Japan MWp/Year USA MWp/Year
Malaysia RM/Wp/Year Germany RM/Wp/Year Japan RM/Wp/Year USA RM/Wp/Year
RM/Wp
Source: IEA-PVPS, MBIPV
MWp
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Recent PV Module Price Trend (2009)
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Prospect for PV Grid Parity
15Source: Morgan Stanley Research
W ld T 10 PV M f t
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World Top 10 PV Manufacturers
(2006-2009)
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Rank 2006 MWp 2007 MWp 2008 MWp 2009 MWp
1
Sharp
Solar 435
Sharp
Solar 363 Q-Cells 547 First Solar 1,057
2 Q-Cells 240 Q-Cells 344 Suntech 498 Suntech 672
3 Kyocera 180 Suntech 309Sharp
Solar458
Sharp
Solar570
4 Suntech 152 Kyocera 207 First Solar 435 Yingli 525
5 Sanyo 121 First Solar 186 Kyocera 290 Q-Cells 518
6Mitsubishi
Electric111 Motech 167 Motech 254 JA Solar 509
7Schott
Solar96 Sanyo 155 Sanyo 220 Trina 399
8 Motech 92SolarWorl
d136 SunPower 215 SunPower 347
9 BP Solar 78Mitsubishi
Electric121 JA Solar 212 Kyocera 340
10 SunPower 63 SunPower 102 BP Solar 148 Motech 338
TOTAL1,568
(79%)
2,090
(68%)
3,277
(60%)
5,275
(67%)
Total
Shipments 1,985 3,073 5,492 7,913Source: Navigant Consulting Inc
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Malaysias Ambition: ETP (NKEA)
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17%
share
ETP launched by YAB PM on 25th Oct 2010
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First Solar (Up to 1,337 MW: 2008-2011)
Q-Cells (600 MW: 2009)
Tokuyama (3,000 tonnes: 2012)
Sunpower (1,000 MW: 2011)
STX Energy
Flextronics (Q-Cells) (200 MW)
MEMC (wafer)
ETP (NKEA) Focus
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Solartif
EPP5: Increase Silicon
Production (170 ktons by 2020)
EPP6: Grow Wafer & Cell
Production (23 GW by 2020)
EPP7: Increase Module
Production
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Silicon
Ingot and
wafers
Solar cells
Solar modules
System components
Installation and
service
Equipment
providers
Product supply
PV Industry Value Chain (c-Si)
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Mining
Processing
Solar modules
System components
Installation and
service
Equipment
providers
Product supply
PV Industry Value Chain (TF)
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Equipment
providers
Product supply
Equipment
providers
Product supply
In 2008
(in RM billion)
Approx.
0.7 2.2 3.6 4.3 72 7.2
Source: Daniel Ruoss, 2009
30 2 18 20 22 38 60 80Revenues
Revenues
PV Value Chain &
Business Revenues (2008)
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Crystalline
Thin film
Equipment Industry & Supply Industry
PV Value Chain in Malaysia
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Solar Companies &
Market Capitalisation (2008)
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Source: Pegasus, Global PV Market Research Report 2007
Increasing scaleof production
Increasinginvestment
cost per MW
Installation / System integration
Silicon
Module
Wafers
Solar cells
Ingots
Few market
players
Low CAPEX
High-tech production
(incl. R&D) and size of
facility increases
High CAPEX
Many marketplayers
Understanding The PV Value Chain
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The following graph indicates investment cost trends for c-Si PV value chain.Not to be use for final economic analysis or business plan. Figures vary whether manual or automated
concept.
Solar Manufacturing: Investment
Requirements
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Profit range
(%)
Polysilicon 30-50
Wafers 20-40
Solar cells 20-30
Modules 5-15
BOS components 10-20
Installation / M&E 5-20
Trend of Profit Distribution
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Source: Daniel Ruoss
2011: PV Manufacturing Countries
Projected PV production in 2011: 18 GW (high)
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17
23
409
459
464
468
468
486
784
1,
278
1,
884
2,
530
9,
530
20,
530
33,
53
0
4
8,
530
65,
530
84,
530 1
05,
530
129,
530 1
57,
530
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Annual kW Cumulative kW
MBIPV Project
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Post- MBIPV: Feed-in Tariff
+ Solar Power Plants (ETP)
200
MW
GW
SPPs
Need for Local Market Support
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