Consideraciones de la Circulación Oceánica y Atmosférica

M. En C. Julio Nemorio Martínez SánchezSubgerencia de Pronóstico a Mediano y Largo Plazo

1

XXXII Foro de Perspectivas Climáticas en la República Mexicana

Ciudad de México, viernes 08 de junio de 2018

Altura Geopotencial 500 mb

Presión a nivel del mar

OLR

Oscilación del Atlántico Norte

Fase Positiva

Mayo 2018

Mayo 1956: 2.21

Mayo 1963: 2.16

Mayo 1992: 2.63

Mayo 2018: 2.12

2018 Ene Feb Mar Abr May

NAO 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12

1) Junio 2) Julio 3) Agosto

(-)

(+)

Temperatura Superficial del Mar

Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

Mayo 2018

Temperatura Superficial del Mar

Eastern Pacific Warm Pool

Mayo 2018

Temperatura Superficial del Mar

Atlantic Main Development Region MDR

Mayo 2018

Temperatura Superficial del Mar

Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico

Mayo 2018

Temperatura Superficial del Mar

El Niño-Oscilación del Sur

Mayo 2018

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

NEP

EEPSEP

1) Northern Equatorial Pacific (NEP)

180°-85°W, 2°N-10°N

2) Southeastern Equatorial Pacific (SEP)

150°W-85°W, 10°S-2°S

3) Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP)

180°-85°W, 2°S-2°N

Tropical Pacific (TP)

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

Asymmetric Index (Ia)

Ia = (PNEP – PSEP) / Pm

Ia > 0, ITCZ to the north

Ia < 0, ITCZ to the south

Double ITCZ Index (Id)

Id = (PNEP – 2PEEP + PSEP) / Pm

Negative Id, single precipitation maximum at the Equator

Positive Id, double ITCZ

P = boreal spring precipitation rate averaged in the respective domain

Pm = 1/3 (PNEP + PEEP + PSEP)

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

A: 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2010, 2016 (6). Single ITCZ at the Equator. Strong El Niño years.

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

B: 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007,

2013, 2014, 2015 (20). Maximum precipitation anomalies to the north of the Equator.

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

C: 1984, 1986, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 (13). Maximum precipitation

anomalies to the south of the Equator.

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.

Yu, H. & Zhang M. (2018).

Explaining the Year-to-Year Variability of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone in the Boreal Spring

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 3847-3856.