ejemplo numericoEjemplo de Clculo de Mximas Avenidas Mediante los Mtodos Estadsticos(Uso de los Factores de Frecuencia)Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo de GumbelClculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-NormalInformacin de Descargas Mximas para 28 aos de registroGrados de libertad: 28 - 2 =26t (estad.) =2.056TPKQ (m3/s)TPK = ZYIC(Y)LCI(Y)LCS(Y)LCI(Q)LCS(Q)AoQQPosicinP >= Q (%)T (aos)X=Q/QY=Log Qaosaosm3/sm3/smm/(N+1)(N+1)/m20.50000-0.1643161.5220.50000-0.0000-0.00900.0351-0.04410.02610.901.061234567850.200000.7195192.3550.200000.84150.06700.04090.02620.10791.061.281970120.0261.013.4529.001.5610.1933100.100001.3046212.77100.100001.28170.10680.04740.05940.15421.151.431971151.0239.026.9014.501.4290.1550250.040002.0438238.56250.040001.75110.14930.05590.09340.20521.241.601972150.0210.0310.349.671.2560.0989500.020002.5923257.70500.020002.05420.17670.06190.11470.23861.301.731973210.0196.0413.797.251.1720.0689750.013332.9111268.82750.013332.21680.19140.06530.12610.25671.341.811974182.0190.0517.245.801.1360.05541000.010003.1367276.691000.010002.32680.20130.06760.13370.26891.361.861975261.0189.0620.694.831.1300.05311500.006673.4541287.771500.006672.47520.21470.07080.14390.28551.391.931976180.0189.0724.144.141.1300.05312000.005003.6791295.622000.005002.57620.22380.07300.15090.29681.421.981977150.0182.0827.593.631.0880.03673000.003333.9959306.673000.003332.71340.23620.07600.16030.31221.452.051978189.0180.0931.033.221.0760.03194000.002504.2205314.514000.002502.80740.24470.07810.16670.32281.472.101979167.0179.01034.482.901.0700.02955000.002004.3947320.585000.002002.87850.25120.07960.17150.33081.482.141980111.0176.01137.932.641.0520.022110000.001004.9355339.4610000.001003.09050.27030.08440.18590.35471.532.261981126.0172.01241.382.421.0280.01221982170.0170.01344.832.231.0160.00711983104.0169.01448.282.071.0100.00451984151.0167.01551.721.930.999-0.00061985169.0163.01655.171.810.975-0.01121986137.0158.01758.621.710.945-0.0247Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo IIIClculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo de Gumbel1987179.0153.01862.071.610.915-0.0387Grados de libertad: 28 - 2 =26t (estad.) =2.0561988189.0151.01965.521.530.903-0.0444TPKYQ (m3/s)Q(m3/s)TPKQ (m3/s)IC(Q)LCI(Q)LCS(Q)1989153.0151.02068.971.450.903-0.0444aosestimadoantilog(Y)Q=xQaos1990239.0150.02172.411.380.897-0.047320.500000.0184-0.00730.98164.443720.50000-0.1643161.5213.65147.87175.171991140.0150.02275.861.320.897-0.047350.200000.84630.06751.17195.367150.200000.7195192.3515.21177.14207.561992158.0140.02379.311.260.837-0.0772100.100001.26930.10571.28213.3439100.100001.3046212.7718.44194.32231.211993196.0137.02482.761.210.819-0.0866250.040001.71250.14581.40233.9595250.040002.0438238.5623.83214.74262.391994176.0126.02586.211.160.753-0.1230500.020001.99450.17131.48248.1046500.020002.5923257.7028.31229.39286.001995163.0120.02689.661.120.717-0.1442750.013332.14450.18481.53255.9712750.013332.9111268.8231.02237.80299.841996190.0111.02793.101.070.664-0.17801000.010002.24540.19391.56261.40351000.010003.1367276.6932.98243.71309.681997172.0104.02896.551.040.622-0.20631500.006672.38090.20621.61268.87771500.006673.4541287.7735.78251.99323.55Media167.25Media-0.00905000.002002.74520.23911.73290.05785000.002004.3947320.5844.26276.33364.84Desv. Est.34.89Des. Est.0.0903910000.001002.93440.25621.80301.709010000.001004.9355339.4649.22290.24388.67Cof. Asim.0.6180Cof. Asim.-0.1104Comparacin de los Valores de Caudales Mximos ObtenidosClculo de los Lmites de Confianza - Mtodo Log-Pearson Tipo IIIAnlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-NormalGrados de libertad: 28 - 3 =25t (estad.) =2.06TPQ (m3/s)Q (m3/s)Q (m3/s)Q (m3/s)TPKYIC(Y)LCI(Y)LCS(Y)LCI(Q)LCS(Q)TPK = ZYQ (m3/s)Q(m3/s)aosobservadoLog-NormalGumbelLog-Pearsonaosaosestimadoantilog(Y)Q=xQ20.50000169.00163.82161.520.9820.500000.0184-0.00730.0352-0.04250.02780.911.0720.50000-0.0000-0.0090120.97946163.81550.20000189.00195.17192.351.1750.200000.84630.06750.04100.02650.10851.061.2850.200000.84150.0670451.16693195.169100.10000210.00213.90212.771.28100.100001.26930.10570.04730.05840.15301.141.42100.100001.28170.1068401.27891213.898250.04000255.00235.85238.561.40250.040001.71250.14580.05530.09050.20101.231.59250.040001.75110.1492641.41014235.847500.02000251.20257.701.48500.020001.99450.17130.06080.11040.23211.291.71500.020002.05420.1766611.50197251.205750.01333259.85268.821.53750.013332.14450.18480.06390.12090.24871.321.77750.013332.21680.1913601.55367259.8521000.01000265.87276.691.561000.010002.24540.19390.06600.12790.26001.341.821000.010002.32680.2013011.58965265.8681500.00667274.21287.771.611500.006672.38090.20620.06890.13730.27511.371.881500.006672.47520.2147121.63950274.2072000.00500280.04295.620.002000.005002.47270.21450.07090.14360.28541.391.932000.005002.57620.2238481.67436280.0363000.00333288.15306.670.003000.003332.59680.22570.07360.15210.29931.421.993000.003332.71340.2362491.72286288.1484000.00250293.84314.510.004000.002502.68140.23340.07540.15790.30881.442.044000.002502.80740.2447421.75688293.8385000.00200298.22320.581.735000.002002.74520.23910.07680.16230.31601.452.075000.002002.87850.2511701.78307298.21910000.00100311.67339.461.8010000.001002.93440.25620.08110.17520.33731.502.1710000.001003.09050.2703331.86352311.673

factores de frecuenciaFACTOR DE FRECUENCIA K = ZFACTOR DE FRECUENCIA KFACTOR DE FRECUENCIA K PARA LA DISTRIBUCION DE PEARSON - TIPO IIIDISTRIBUCION NORMALDISTRIBUCION TIPO I - GUMBELCoeficientePERIODO DE RETORNO (AOS)TPWKTPKde25102550751002005001000aosaosAsimetraPPROBABILIDAD DE EXCEDENCIA(c)0.5000.2000.1000.0400.0200.0130.0100.0050.0020.00111.00000infinitoinfinito11.00000infinito20.500001.1774-0.000020.50000-0.1643-2.60.34690.69010.74600.75890.75940.76160.76480.78070.82240.871630.333331.48230.430330.333330.2538-2.50.34010.70550.77160.79090.79160.79240.79400.80370.83310.870240.250001.66510.674240.250000.5214-2.40.33260.72020.79730.82420.82650.82660.82710.83230.85170.878350.200001.79410.841550.200000.7195-2.30.32420.73420.82290.85880.86380.86400.86410.86620.87770.895860.166671.89300.967460.166670.8770-2.20.31520.74760.84840.89450.90340.90450.90470.90510.91090.922180.125002.03931.150480.125001.1198-2.10.30540.76020.87370.93120.94510.94790.94860.94890.95100.9570100.100002.14601.2817100.100001.3046-2.00.29490.77210.89890.96880.98870.99390.99580.99720.99761.0001150.066672.32731.5014150.066671.6347-1.90.28390.78320.92371.00721.03421.04241.04601.04991.05051.0510200.050002.44771.6452200.050001.8658-1.80.27220.79360.94831.04621.08131.09321.09891.10661.10941.1095250.040002.53731.7511250.040002.0438-1.70.26000.80320.97241.08581.12991.14611.15451.16721.17391.1752300.033332.60811.8343300.033332.1887-1.60.24730.81200.99621.12591.17991.20091.21241.23141.24391.2477350.028572.66661.9026350.028572.3108-1.50.23400.82011.01941.16631.23111.25761.27261.29901.31891.3267400.025002.71621.9604400.025002.4163-1.40.22040.82731.04211.20691.28331.31591.33491.36971.39881.4120450.022222.75922.0103450.022222.5093-1.30.20630.83381.06431.24771.33651.37561.39901.44341.48321.5031500.020002.79712.0542500.020002.5923-1.20.19190.83941.08581.28861.39041.43661.46471.51981.57191.5998550.018182.83102.0933550.018182.6673-1.10.17710.84421.10661.32931.44501.49881.53201.59871.66461.7019600.016672.86162.1285600.016672.7358-1.00.16200.84811.12681.37001.50021.56191.60071.68001.76101.8089650.015382.88942.1605650.015382.7987-0.90.14660.85131.14621.41041.55571.62591.67051.76331.86101.9205700.014292.91502.1898700.014292.8569-0.80.13090.85361.16481.45061.61151.69061.74141.84851.96422.0366750.013332.93852.2168750.013332.9111-0.70.11510.85501.18261.49031.66751.75581.81311.93552.07042.1568800.012502.96042.2418800.012502.9617-0.60.09900.85561.19961.52961.72351.82151.88552.02392.17942.2808850.011762.98082.2652850.011763.0093-0.50.08280.85531.21571.56831.77941.88741.95852.11372.29092.4084900.011112.99992.2870900.011113.0541-0.40.06640.85431.23081.60641.83511.95352.03192.20462.40472.5393950.010533.01792.3075950.010533.0965-0.30.04990.85231.24501.64381.89062.01962.10552.29652.52062.67321000.010003.03492.32681000.010003.1367-0.20.03330.84951.25831.68041.94562.08562.17932.38922.63842.80991250.008003.10752.40931250.008003.3115-0.10.01670.84591.27051.71622.00022.15142.25312.48252.75772.94911500.006673.16562.47521500.006673.45410.0-0.00000.84151.28171.75112.05422.21682.32682.57622.87853.09051750.005713.21402.52971750.005713.57470.1-0.01670.83621.29191.78502.10752.28182.40022.67033.00053.23402000.005003.25522.57622000.005003.67910.2-0.03330.83011.30111.81802.16002.34622.47332.76453.12353.37932500.004003.32312.65252500.004003.85350.3-0.04990.82321.30911.84992.21172.41002.54582.85883.24743.52623000.003333.37752.71343000.003333.99590.4-0.06640.81551.31611.88062.26252.47312.61782.95283.37193.67443500.002863.42282.76413500.002864.11630.5-0.08280.80701.32211.91032.31232.53532.68903.04663.49683.82374000.002503.46162.80744000.002504.22050.6-0.09900.79781.32691.93872.36102.59652.75953.14003.62203.97404500.002223.49552.84514500.002224.31250.7-0.11510.78781.33061.96592.40852.65672.82903.23293.74734.12505000.002003.52552.87855000.002004.39470.8-0.13090.77711.33321.99182.45482.71592.89753.32503.87264.27655500.001823.55242.90845500.001824.46910.9-0.14660.76571.33482.01642.49992.77382.96503.41643.99764.42836000.001673.57692.93556000.001674.53701.0-0.16200.75361.33522.03972.54372.83053.03123.50694.12234.58026500.001543.59922.96036500.001544.59941.1-0.17710.74091.33462.06172.58602.88593.09623.59634.24644.73217000.001433.61972.98307000.001434.65731.2-0.19190.72751.33282.08222.62702.93993.15993.68464.36984.88387500.001333.63873.00417500.001334.71111.3-0.20630.71351.33012.10142.66652.99253.22223.77184.49255.03508000.001253.65643.02368000.001254.76141.4-0.22040.69901.32622.11912.70453.04353.28303.85764.61415.18588500.001183.67293.04198500.001184.80871.5-0.23400.68391.32142.13552.74103.09303.34233.94204.73485.33589000.001113.68853.05919000.001114.85331.6-0.24730.66831.31552.15042.77593.14103.40004.02494.85425.48509500.001053.70313.07539500.001054.89551.7-0.26000.65231.30872.16392.80923.18733.45614.10634.97235.633110000.001003.71693.090510000.001004.93551.8-0.27220.63581.30092.17602.84093.23193.51054.18605.08905.780115000.000673.82453.209015000.000675.25181.9-0.28390.61901.29222.18672.87103.27493.56324.26415.20435.925920000.000503.89893.290820000.000505.47622.0-0.29490.60181.28262.19602.89953.31623.61424.34045.31796.070325000.000403.95583.353025000.000405.65022.1-0.30540.58431.27212.20392.92633.35573.66344.41495.42986.213130000.000334.00163.403130000.000335.79242.2-0.31520.56671.26082.21052.95153.39353.71084.48765.53996.354435000.000294.03993.445035000.000295.91262.3-0.32420.54881.24882.21572.97503.42953.75644.55835.64826.493940000.000254.07283.480940000.000256.01672.4-0.33260.53081.23612.21962.99703.46383.80014.62725.75466.631745000.000224.10173.512445000.000226.10862.5-0.34010.51281.22272.22223.01733.49633.84204.69405.85896.767550000.000204.12733.540250000.000206.19072.6-0.34690.49471.20872.22363.03603.52713.88214.75895.96136.901375000.000134.22443.645875000.000136.50692.7-0.35270.47681.19422.22383.05323.55613.92044.82186.06157.033180000.000134.23963.662480000.000136.55722.8-0.35770.45891.17912.22283.06883.58343.95684.88266.15967.1628100000.000104.29193.7191100000.000106.73122.9-0.36160.44131.16372.22083.08293.60913.99144.94156.25567.2902

hidrogramatt/Tpqq/qp0.000.000.000.002.000.103.000.036.000.3019.000.198.000.4031.000.3112.000.6066.000.6614.000.7082.000.8216.000.8093.000.9318.000.9099.000.9920.001.00100.001.0022.001.1099.000.9924.001.2093.000.9326.001.3086.000.8630.001.5068.000.6834.001.7046.000.4638.001.9033.000.3344.002.2021.000.2152.002.6011.000.1164.003.204.000.04100.005.000.000.00Tp =0.833qp =7.49t/Tptq/qpq0.000.000.000.000.100.080.030.220.300.250.191.420.400.330.312.320.600.500.664.940.700.580.826.140.800.670.936.970.900.750.997.421.000.831.007.491.100.920.997.421.201.000.936.971.301.080.866.441.501.250.685.091.701.420.463.451.901.580.332.472.201.830.211.572.602.170.110.823.202.670.040.305.004.170.000.00

hidrograma

t/Tpq/qpHidrograma unitario adimensional SCS

tesis belizario

t (horas)q (m3/s.cm)Hidrograma Generado

AoQQPosicinP >= Q (%)T (aos)X=Q/QY=Log Xm3/sm3/smm/(N+1)(N+1)/m12345678Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo de Gumbel1111.750364.00012.63238.0002.612460.41702133.000243.92025.26319.0001.750630.2432TPKQ (m3/s)3117.900212.00037.89512.6671.521540.1823aos4155.250210.500410.5269.5001.510780.179220.50000-0.1643129.455156.400191.000513.1587.6001.370820.137050.200000.7195182.62696.400183.400615.7896.3331.316280.1193100.100001.3046217.827191.000179.200718.4215.4291.286130.1093250.040002.0438262.308183.400170.120821.0534.7501.220970.0867500.020002.5923295.299150.000163.000923.6844.2221.169860.0681750.013332.9111314.4710147.000159.0501026.3163.8001.141520.05751000.010003.1367328.0511147.700156.4001128.9473.4551.122500.05021500.006673.4541347.141293.000155.2501231.5793.1671.114240.04702000.005003.6791360.681377.400155.0001334.2112.9231.112450.04633000.003333.9959379.741482.300155.0001436.8422.7141.112450.04634000.002504.2205393.2515155.000150.0001539.4742.5331.076560.03205000.002004.3947403.7316364.000149.0001642.1052.3751.069390.029110000.001004.9355436.271793.400147.7001744.7372.2351.060060.025318145.400147.0001847.3682.1111.055030.023319210.500145.4001950.0002.0001.043550.018520163.000141.6002052.6321.9001.016280.007021111.200133.0002155.2631.8100.95455-0.020222132.080132.0802257.8951.7270.94795-0.023223130.422130.4222360.5261.6520.93605-0.028724243.920117.9002463.1581.5830.84618-0.07252589.565111.7502565.7891.5200.80204-0.095826170.120111.2002668.4211.4620.79809-0.097927159.05096.4002771.0531.4070.69187-0.16002864.00093.4002873.6841.3570.67034-0.173729179.20093.0002976.3161.3100.66747-0.175630149.00089.5653078.9471.2670.64282-0.191931212.00082.3003181.5791.2260.59067-0.228732141.60081.9503284.2111.1880.58816-0.230533155.00077.4003386.8421.1520.55551-0.25533481.95067.7003489.4741.1180.48589-0.31353538.25064.0003592.1051.0860.45933-0.33793667.70056.4403694.7371.0560.40507-0.39253756.44038.2503797.3681.0270.27452-0.5614Media139.33Media-0.11Desv. Est.60.16Desv. Est.0.16Cof. Asim.1.3650Cof. Asim.-1.0858Anlisis de Mximas Avenidas - Mtodo Log-NormalTPK = ZYQ (m3/s)Q(m3/s)aosestimadoantilog(Y)Q=xQ20.50000-0.0000-0.1063130.78287109.07850.200000.84150.0292481.06967149.039100.100001.28170.1001771.25944175.480250.040001.75110.1757901.49896208.853500.020002.05420.2246221.67734233.708750.013332.21680.2508201.78164248.2401000.010002.32680.2685381.85583258.5771500.006672.47520.2924411.96084273.2082000.005002.57620.3087252.03575283.6463000.003332.71340.3308282.14204298.4554000.002502.80740.3459652.21802309.0425000.002002.87850.3574212.27730317.30210000.001003.09050.3915772.46364343.265