![Page 1: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Impactos del cambio climático en Colombia: Modelos y metodos
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez,
![Page 2: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Contenido
• La demanda de la agricultura
• Un breve introduccion a los modelos
• Downscaling empirico• Downscaling con RCM• Perspectivas para el futuro
![Page 3: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
La demanda - resolucion
• Agricultura es una industria de nicho
• Entonces necesitamos datos de clima relevantes para caracterizar el nicho
• Escala: 1km, 90m?
![Page 4: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
La demanda - variables
• Necesitamos multiples variables
–Temperatura• Max, min, media
–Precipitacion– Humedad relativa– Radiacion solar– Vientos– …….
Men
os im
port
ante
s
Mas
cer
tidum
bre
![Page 5: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
La demanda - tiempos
• Necesitamos como minimo datos mensuales
• Para algunas aplicaciones detallados (ej. modelos mechanisticos) necesitamos datos diarios
• 2050 y 2080 son irrelevantes para la toma de decision en agricultura
• Estamos buscando pronosticos para variabilidad climatica (within season, seasonal, annual, Nino/Nina)
• Y para cambio en linea base: 2020-2030
![Page 6: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
La demanda - certidumbre
• Los cultivos son suprememente sensibles a sus condiciones climaticos
• Para adaptaciones especificos, necesitamos alta certidumbre
• Faltando certidumbre, trabajamos en resiliencia (pero es mas dificil)
![Page 7: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Los modelos
• Empezo con los GCMs– Grillas grandes, muy complejos
• Vamos hacia los RCMs– Grillas mas pequenhas, igualmente complejos
![Page 8: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”
• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología etc.
• Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro• Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)
![Page 9: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
MENSAJE 1
En la agricultura, las diferentes
escenarios de emisiones no son
importantes: de aqui a 2030 la diferencia entre escenarios es
minima
![Page 12: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2CCCMA-CGCM3.1
T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G
GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES
MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3
![Page 16: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2CCCMA-CGCM3.1
T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G
GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES
MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3
![Page 17: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
MENSAJE 2
La incertidumbre cientifico SI es relevante para la agricultura: tenemos
que tomar decisiones dentro de un contexto de incertidumbre
YDepender de un solo GCM es peligroso
![Page 18: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Opciones para downscaling• Uso de GCMs de alta resolucion
– MRI es un GCM con 20km resolucion (Japones)
• Uso de una o multiples RCMs (dynamical)– PRECIS
• Downscaling empirico (statistical)– CLIMGEN con el Tyndell– Ramirez y Jarvis usando WorldClim
• Downscaling hybrid (RCM + empirico)
![Page 19: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Mitchell TD and Osborn TJ (2005) ClimGen: a flexible tool for generating monthly climate data sets and scenarios. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper.
Ghaffari et al., 2002. Climatic change
Tubiello et al., 2000. Eur. Jour. Agron.
Arnell and Osborn (2006)…
![Page 20: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Datos de Tyndall Centre• A1B: 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080…• 7 modelos representativos:
– CCCMA-CGCM3.1– CSIRO-MK3.0– IPSL-CM4– MPI-ECHAM5– NCAR-CCSM3.0– UKMO-HADCM3– UKMO-HADGEM1
![Page 22: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
CCCMA-CGCM3.1 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MPI-ECHAM5
NCAR-CCSM3.0 UKMO-HADCM3 UKMO-HADGEM1
2020A1B
![Page 23: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
CCCMA-CGCM3.1 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MPI-ECHAM5
NCAR-CCSM3.0 UKMO-HADCM3 UKMO-HADGEM1
2050A1B
![Page 24: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
CCCMA-CGCM3.1 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MPI-ECHAM5
NCAR-CCSM3.0 UKMO-HADCM3 UKMO-HADGEM1
2020A1B
![Page 25: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
CCCMA-CGCM3.1 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MPI-ECHAM5
NCAR-CCSM3.0 UKMO-HADCM3 UKMO-HADGEM1
2050A1B
![Page 26: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Downscaling a la Ramirez y Jarvis
• 50km no es suficiente para la agricultura
• Solucion: Downscaling empirico usando el metodo delta, basado en WorldClim
• Un supuesto: a nivel local, la distribucion espacial de clima no cambia, solo a nivel macro
![Page 27: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
WorldClim• Global high resolution 1km
monthly climate surfaces for precipitation, mean, max and min temperature
• Based on 47,554 precipitation stations, 24,542 mean temperature stations, 14,835 minimum and maximum temperature stations
• Interpolated using a thin-plate smoothing spline in the AnuClim software
Citado > 500 veces de 2005-2009
![Page 28: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
- 3 0 .1
3 0 .5
M e a n a n n u a lt e m p e r a t u r e ( º C )
0
1 2 0 8 4
A n n u a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n ( m m )
![Page 29: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
A
B
C
~1500 stations in Colombia
![Page 30: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
For precipitation, spline interpolation method uses elevation as a co-variable, and searches for local correlations to make an “informed” interpolation between points.
To illustrate, rainfall around Cali.
![Page 31: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
WorldClimClimate stations are not randomly distributed, but most dense in
populated regions.
• Average distance from a CIAT climbing bean collection to a WorldClim station:
• Precipitation : 11.2km
• Mean temperature : 30.7km
• Minimum/maximum temperature : 33.4km
• Average distance from a WCMC cloud forest site to a WorldClim station:
• Precipitation : 20.6km
• Mean temperature : 38.8km
• Minimum/maximum temperature : 52.6km
![Page 32: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Bases de Datos
• 18 modelos GCM para 2050, 9 para 2020 (datos de Stanford) downscaled a 20km, 5km, 1km
• 7 GCMs con informacion decadal de Tyndell• Diferentes escenarios, A1b, B1, commit
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
![Page 33: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Region DepartamentoCambio en
Precipitacion
Cambio en Temperatura
media
Cambio en estacionalidad de
precipitacion
Amazonas Amazonas 12 2.9 1.4 0 135Amazonas Caqueta 138 2.7 -1.3 0 193Amazonas Guania 55 2.9 -3.2 0 271Amazonas Guaviare 72 2.8 -2.9 -1 209Amazonas Putumayo 117 2.6 0.6 0 170Andina Antioquia 18 2.1 1.3 0 129Andina Boyaca 50 2.7 -3.9 -1 144Andina Cundinamarca 152 2.6 -2.6 0 170Andina Huila 51 2.4 1.0 0 144Andina Norte de santander 73 2.8 -0.4 0 216Andina Santander 51 2.7 -2.4 0 158Andina Tolima 86 2.4 -3.1 0 148Caribe Atlantico -74 2.2 -2.9 2 135Caribe Bolivar 90 2.5 -1.8 0 242Caribe Cesar -119 2.6 -1.3 0 160Caribe Cordoba -11 2.3 -3.8 0 160Caribe Guajira -69 2.2 -1.8 0 86Caribe Magdalena -158 2.4 -1.8 0 153Caribe Sucre 10 2.4 -4.1 -1 207Eje Cafetero Caldas 252 2.4 -4.2 -1 174Eje Cafetero Quindio 153 2.3 -4.1 -1 145Eje Cafetero Risaralda 158 2.4 -3.5 -1 141Llanos Arauca -13 2.9 -6.4 -1 188Llanos Casanare 163 2.8 -5.7 -1 229Llanos Meta 10 2.7 -5.4 -1 180Llanos Vaupes 46 2.8 -1.4 0 192Llanos Vichada 59 2.6 -2.6 0 152Pacifico Choco -157 2.2 -1.2 0 148Sur Occidente Cauca 172 2.3 -1.6 0 168Sur Occidente Narino 155 2.2 -1.4 0 126Sur Occidente Valle del Cauca 275 2.3 -5.1 -1 166
![Page 34: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Climate characteristic
Climate Seasonality
The mean daily temperature range increases from 9.57 ºC to 9.85 ºC
The driest month gets wetter with 94.2 millimeters instead of 83.6 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 40.25 mm
Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected
General climate change description
The maximum temperature of the year increases from 30.84 ºC to 34.36 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 2.81 ºC The minimum temperature of the year increases from 19.05 ºC to 21.23 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 2.6 ºC The wettest month gets wetter with 354.88 millimeters instead of 350.35 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 3.55 mm
The rainfall increases from 2645.89 millimeters to 2702.41 millimetersTemperatures increase and the average increase is 2.66 ºC
The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 3.7%
The maximum number of cumulative dry months keeps constant in 2 months
Average Climate Change Trends of Colombia
These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 14 GCM models from the 3th (2001) and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-data.org
The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 5.72%
General climate
characteristics
Extreme conditions
Variability between models
Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and less seasonal in precipitation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Tem
per
atu
re (
ºC)
Current precipitation
Future precipitation
Future mean temperature
Current mean temperature
Future maximum temperature
Current maximum temperature
Future minimum temperature
Current minimum temperature
![Page 35: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Incertidumbre
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500B
CC
R B
CM
2 0
CC
CM
A C
GC
M3
1
CC
CM
A C
GC
M3
1 T
63
CN
RM
CM
3
CS
IRO
MK
3 0
GF
DL
CM
2
GF
DL
CM
2 1
MIR
OC
3 2
HIR
ES
MIR
OC
3 2
ME
DR
ES
MIU
B E
CH
O G
MP
I E
CH
AM
5
NC
AR
PC
M 1
CC
CM
A C
GC
M2
HC
CP
R H
AD
CM
3
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Te
mp
era
ture
(ºC
)
Total annual precipitation (bio 12) Annual mean temperature (bio 1)
Annual maximum temperature (bio 5) Annual minimum temperature (bio 6)
Site-specific predicted values of each GCM model (IPCC, 2007) for principal bioclimatic variables
![Page 36: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Incertidumbre
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
co
eff
icie
nt
of
va
ria
tio
n (
%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Te
mp
era
ture
co
eff
icie
nt
of
va
riat
ion
(%
)
Precipitation Mean temperature Maximum temperature Minimum temperature
Site-specific monthly coefficient of variation using 14 GCM models (IPCC, 2007) for precipitation and temperature
![Page 37: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
• MRI con 20km resolución, datos diarios para tres epocas, temp. minima, maxima y precipitacion (distribucion restringido por acuerdo con Japon)
• RCM: PRECIS, con boundary conditions de ECHAM4, ECHAM5, HADCM3 x 4
En camino
![Page 38: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Blade
Arreglo de disco
Arreglo de disco
Alternate servers
Array disk
![Page 39: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
La demanda vs. la ofertaDemanda GCMs RCMs GCMs con
downscaling empirico
Alta resolucion No Moderado Si
Variables Si Si No
Frecuencia Si Si No
Certidumbre Moderado Baja Moderado
![Page 40: Andy Jarvis - Escenarios De Cambio Climatico Para Colombia](https://reader038.vdocumento.com/reader038/viewer/2022102901/5562f422d8b42ab47d8b5702/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Entonces que hacemos frente todo esto?
• No hay una sola estrategia gana-gana• Necesitamos multiples acercamientos para mejorar la
base de informacion acerca de escenarios de cambio climatico– Desarollo de RCMs (multiples: PRECIS NO ES SUFICIENTE)– Downscaling empirico, metodos hybridos– Probamos diferentes metodologias
• Se requiere flujo de informacion (CCC): compartimos, comparemos, charlamos (chismoseamos)