ciclos en los mercados de valores

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5/13/2018 CiclosenLosMercadosdeValores-slidepdf.com http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/ciclos-en-los-mercados-de-valores 1/17 Fobl{w`x prb jnx hohjnx {oblbl rl` j`wc` eox{nwo` %Hohjn Øwdohn wbdbwbl{b `j h`fgon b{lnjøcohn kb w`q`x prb krwø 079*999 `ðnx ‘ Hohjn kb H`x`lkwn kb 084*999 `ðnx prb ywnkran rl h`fgon hnfyjb{n bl j`x oldjrblho`x yj`lb{`wo`x xrx hnwwbj`honlbx bl{wb jnx enfgwbx jnx konxbx ‘ E,Y, Gj`t`{xm/* j` hoblho` prb bx{rko` jnx hohjnx dol`lhobwnx fnkbwlnx hnfblqø e`hb fàx kb 029 `ðnx bl bj Xocjn UOU, Xol bfg`wcn* jnx bx{rkonx xbwonx kb jnx hohjnx dol`lhobwnx ln hnfblq`wnl e`x{` kbxyrïx kb j` h`æk` kb j` gnjx` `fbwoh`l` kb 0?7?, HOHJNX X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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5/13/2018 Ciclos en Los Mercados de Valores - slidepdf.com

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Fobl{w`x prb jnx hohjnx {oblbl rl` j`wc` eox{nwo` %Hohjn Øwdohn wbdbwbl{b `jh`fgon b{lnjøcohn kb w`q`x prb krwø 079*999 `ðnx ‘ Hohjn kb H`x`lkwn kb

084*999 `ðnx prb ywnkran rl h`fgon hnfyjb{n bl j`x oldjrblho`x yj`lb{`wo`x xrx hnwwbj`honlbx bl{wb jnx enfgwbx jnx konxbx ‘ E,Y, Gj`t`{xm/* j` hoblho`

prb bx{rko` jnx hohjnx dol`lhobwnx fnkbwlnx hnfblqø e`hb fàx kb 029 `ðnx blbj Xocjn UOU, Xol bfg`wcn* jnx bx{rkonx xbwonx kb jnx hohjnx dol`lhobwnx lnhnfblq`wnl e`x{` kbxyrïx kb j` h`æk` kb j` gnjx` `fbwoh`l` kb 0?7?,

HOHJNX

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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KBDOLOHOØL‧ Rl hohjn bx rl` djrh{r`hoøl wæ{foh` prb xb wbyo{b bl bj {obfyn hnl wbcrj`wok`k

w`qnl`gjb, Hr`lkn xb bx jn xrdohobl{bfbl{b wbcrj`w ybwxox{b krw`l{b rl ybwænkn j`wcn

kb {obfyn* ln yrbkb xbw w`qnl`gjbfbl{b wbxrj{`kn kb j` h`xr`jok`k* hr`l{n fàx{obfyn rl wo{fn xb wbyo{b* fàx ywbkbhogjb xb trbjtb, Bx{` {bnwæ` xb yrbkb `yjoh`w `hr`jprobw dnwf` kb tok` y`w` hnfywblkbw xr l`{rw`jbq` xrx hnfynw{`fobl{nxywbkbhogjbx,

‧ Bx{nx d`h{nwbx xrcobwbl prb bj frlkn l`{rw`j bx{à xrab{n ` j`x ynkbwnx`x drbwq`x prb

ywntnh`l j`x djrh{r`honlbx kb kotbwxnx dbløfblnx, Rl wo{fn okïl{ohn bl kodbwbl{bxdbløfblnx ofyjoh` rl` ol{bwwbj`hoøl* n rl` h`rx` hnfñl, Bj hnlnhofobl{n kb jnxy`{wnlbx ywbkbhogjbx wbyb{o{otnx bx rl` ebww`fobl{` t`jonx` bl j` ywnbhhoøl hobl{ædoh`kb frhenx dbløfblnx kodbwbl{bx,

‧ Kbgokn ` prb {nkn bl bj rlotbwxn `dbh{` ` {nkn jn kbfàx* {nk`x j`x togw`honlbx*nxhoj`honlbx j`x ybw{rwg`honlbx wbybwhr{bl bl bjjn ynw xobfywb, Bl bj h`xn kb jnxyj`lb{`x* {oblbl øwgo{`x bjæy{oh`x h`rx`lkn ybprbð`x t`wo`honlbx bl bj fntofobl{n* ybwnj` ybw{rwg`hoøl kb n{wnx øwc`lnx {`fgoïl h`rx` n{w`x t`wo`honlbx bl bxh`j`x kb {obfynt`wo`knx,

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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KOXHOYJOL@X‧ @x{wnlnfæ`* @x{wndæxoh` @x{wnjncæ`

‧ Hoblho`x L`{rw`jbx* Gonjncæ`* Gn{àloh`* Bl{nfnjncæ`* Ebwyb{njncæ`* Oh{onjncæ`* Joflnjncæ`*Qnnjncæ` kb Oltbw{bgw`knx* F`x{nqnnjncæ` Nwlo{njncæ`

‧ Hjof`{njncæ`* Cbnjncæ`* Cbndæxoh`* Eokwnjncæ` b Eokwncw`dæ`

‧ Fbkohol`* Dæxoh`* X`jrk

Hoblho`x Xnho`jbx* Bhnlnfæ`* Xnhonjncæ`* Eox{nwo`‧ @wfnlæ`

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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‧ Sojjo`f X{`ljb Abtnlx

‧ Hjbfbl{ Arcj`w 

‧ Anxbye Mo{heol

Lomnj`o Kf{wobtohe Mnlkw`{obdd %05?7&0?89/

‧ Xofnl Xfo{e Mrqlb{x %0?90&0?52/

‧ Anxbye @jnox Xherfyb{bw %0558&0?29/

‧ @jbu`lkbw J, Heoqebtxm %05?3&0?4;/

‧ Bks`wk W, Kbsb %05?2&0?35/

‧ W` [nfbx

OLTBX[OC@KNWBX

CBLBW@J BHNLNFÆ@

[OBFYN

‧ W`fnlk E Sebbjbw 

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‧ W`jye Lbjxnl Bjjon{{

‧ Sojjo`f Kbjgbw{ C`ll %0535&0?22/

‧ A, F, Erwx{

‧ @jgbw{ Bolx{bol %053?&0?22/

‧ E`lx Abll %0?9;&0?37/

‧ Xofnl Xelnjj

Lomnj` [bxj`

OLTBX[OC@KNWBX

DÆXOH@ FBWH@KNX KB T@JNWBX

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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FB[NKNJNCÆ@‧ Bj `làjoxox kb Dnrwobw %DD[/

‧ @làjoxox bxybh{w`j kb fàuof` bl{wnyæ` %FBX@/

‧ J` kodbwblho` bl{wb knx fbko`x føtojbx, Bx rl` {ïhloh` prb drb r{ojoq`k` ynw Kbsb y`w`kbx{`h`w rl kb{bwfol`kn ybwænkn

‧ Rl `làjoxox d`h{nwo`j kb rl` xbwob xofyjb prb xb wbyo{b t`wo`x tbhbx bl j`yxnx kb {obfynkodbwbl{bx

‧ @r{nhnwwbj`honlbx kb j`x xbwobx kb {obfyn hnl xæ foxf`x bl t`wonx wb{w`xnx prb xrbjblfnx{w`w jnx hohjnx `h{r`jbx

‧ @WOF@ bx rl fï{nkn y`w` kb{bwfol`w j`x kotbwx`x ywnyobk`kbx kb rl` xbwob kb {obfyn j` fbanw f`lbw` kb {w`{`wj`x* hnfn {nf`w kodbwblho`x* bjofol`hoøl kb {blkblho`x

bx{`honl`jbx xo xb {w`{` kb rl hohjn `jb`{nwon n ln,

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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JB_BX HÆHJOH@X‧ Jb kbj Wo{fn1 [nkn xb f`lodobx{` bl rl kb{bwfol`kn fntofobl{n kb ok` trbj{`* djran

wbdjran* ̀ hhoøl wb`hhoøl* ̀ t`lhb wb{wnhbxn,

‧ Jb kb Togw`hoøl1 Bx j` jb kb ywncwbxn* fntofobl{n wn{`hoøl, Hnfywblkb {wbxtogw`honlbx f`nwbx h`k` rl` wbywbxbl{` j` drxoøl kb xbox togw`honlbx fblnwbx* jn prbxb hnltobw{b bl kobhonhen, Kobhonhen bx bj lñfbwn hj`tb bl bj bx{rkon kb hohjnx,

‧ Jb kb Ybwonkohok`k1 Hnwwbxynlkblho` bl{wb rl hohjn ywolhoy`j jnx hohjnx xbhrlk`wonx

bl jnx prb xb xrgkotokb,‧ Jb kb @{w`hhoøl1 Jnx hohjnx ybprbðnx bx{àl xrab{nx `j knfolon kb jnx fàx cw`lkbx* xb

tbl `{w`æknx ynw bjjnx bl xrx fnfbl{nx oloho`jbx dol`jbx %`lok`hoøl/,

‧ Jb kb Kbxol{bcw`hoøl1 Cngobwl` bj ybwænkn kb kbxhblxn hæhjohn, Xb kbx`wwnjj` hnl

tbjnhok`k hwbhobl{b* nwocol`lkn bl kb{bwfol`k`x ïynh`x h`æk`x `hnfy`ð`k`x ynw h`j`fok`kbx n h`{`hjoxfnx kb f`nw n fblnw wbjobtb,

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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HOHJNX BL JNX FBWH@KNX KB T@JNWBX‧ J` buybwoblho` j` wb`jok`k bhnløfoh` lnx wbtbj` prb j` `h{otok`k xrbjb fntbwxb bl

{nwln ` rlnx hohjnx kb{bwfol`knx prb `g`wh`l d`xbx kb buy`lxoøl kb wbhbxoøl, Bj

bx{rkon kb jnx hohjnx bhnløfohnx bx gàxohn y`w` jnx oltbwxnwbx bl t`jnwbx* ` prb jnxfbwh`knx kb t`jnwbx xrbjbl wbdjba`w j` xo{r`hoøl bhnløfoh`* `l{ohoyàlknxb ` bjj`,

‧ Xb xrbjb kbhow prb jnx hohjnx grwxà{ojbx xb `l{ohoy`l bl 5.07 fbxbx ` jnx bhnløfohnx, Kb

ebhen* jnx prb y`w{ohoy`l bl jnx fbwh`knx kb t`jnwbx {oblkbl ` `l{ohoy`w j` ynxogjbwb`jok`k dr{rw` yrbx{n prb hnfyw`l n tblkbl g`x`knx bl xr ybwhbyhoøl kb rl dr{rwn f`xn fblnx hbwh`ln,

Rl cwàdohn kbj fbwh`kn kb t`jnwbx bx rl` of`cbl kb j`x bfnhonlbx erf`l`x buywbx`k`xbl dnwf` kb fntofobl{n kb ywbhonx= jnx xbwbx erf`lnx yrbkbl wb`hhonl`w kb f`lbw`fr kodbwbl{b ` j`x foxf`x howhrlx{`lho`x drlk`fbl{`jbx bl kox{ol{nx fnfbl{nx,

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HOHJN OKB@J

Wbhrybw`hoøl @rcb

Kbywbxoøl Wbhbxoøl

Bx{wrh{rw` Hohjn Grwxà{oj Bx{wrh{rw` Hohjn Bhnløfohn

[w`xj`hoøl Hnwwbh{`

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HOHJN ‘ [W@XJ@HOØL

[w`xj`hoøl Kbwbhe` [w`xj`hoøl Oqprobwk`

Bj fælofn kbj hohjn kbxyrïx kb j` hwbx{`* xbwàlnwf`jfbl{b f`nw prb bj hnfoblqn kbj hohjn,

Bj fælofn kbj hohjn kbxyrïx kb j` hwbx{`* xbwàlnwf`jfbl{b fblnw prb bj hnfoblqn kbj hohjn,

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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WBCJ@X HÆHJOH@X‧ Bj fntofobl{n kbj ywbhon bx rl` f`lodbx{`hoøl kb j` drbwq` kbj hohjn,

‧ Rl hohjn ` j` g`a` ln xobfywb xb blhrbl{w` bl bj ywbhon g`an kbj hohjn %Okbl{odoh`hoølkbj yrl{n bl prb bj hohjn ngjoc` ` h`fgo`w kb kowbhhoøl hnfoblq` ` fntbwxb e`ho``wwog` y`w` bj hnfoblqn kbj xocrobl{b hohjn/

‧ Jnx hohjnx yrbkbl buy`lkowxb hnl{w`bwxb ` tnjrl{`k,

‧ Rl hohjn kb f`nw f`clo{rk n knfol`l{b {wrlh` j` krw`hoøl kb jnx hohjnx

xrgnwkol`knx %J` ywofbw` d`xb kb -.&05 xbf`l`x bx cblbw`jfbl{b fàx j`wc` prb j`xbcrlk` d`xb kb -.&05 xbf`l`x* prb lnwf`jfbl{b xb `hnw{` bl rl hohjn kb ? fbxbxe`hoblkn xrx fælofnx ` {obfyn, Bl n{w`x y`j`gw`x* rl hohjn kb ? fbxbx ln xb buy`lkby`w` k`w h`gok` ` rl `j`wc`fobl{n kbj hohjn kb -.&05 xbf`l`x/

J` krw`hoøl kbj hohjn xb okbl{odoh` lnfol`jfbl{b g`x`kn bl fbko`x %e` 2,8 hohjnxkb ? fbxbx kbl{wn kb h`k` hohjn kb ; `ðnx* xol bfg`wcn* xøjn wbywbxbl{` 2 ynwprb bxfàx xblhojjn {w`g`a`w hnl jnx ywnfbkonx/

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Bj hohjn kb ? fbxbx hnlnhokn {`fgoïl hnfn1 bjhohjn kb 20* ;9* 8? xbf`l`x* n bj hohjn kb 5*4fbxbx, Bx bj hohjn fàx ofynw{`l{b y`w` bj rxn bl j`

ywbkohhoøl kbj fbwh`kn ` fbko`ln yj`qn,Bl rl fbwh`kn `jhox{`* j` hwbx{` kbj hohjn kb ?fbxbx lnwf`jfbl{b xb ywnkrhb bl{wb bj xbu{n nh{`tn fbx kbj hohjn %{w`xj`hoøl kbwbhe`/= bl rlfbwh`kn g`aox{`* j` hwbx{` xb kbgb bxybw`w bl bjxbcrlkn n {bwhbw fbx kbj hohjn %{w`x j̀ hoøl

oqprobwk`/,Hnlnhoblkn bx{` bx{wrh{rw` gàxoh` kbj hohjn kb ?fbxbx* ynkbfnx hnlxokbw`w prb bx{`fnx bl bjfblnw wobxcn ynxogjb y`w` bj bx{`gjbhofobl{n kblrbt`x ynxohonlbx j`wc`x bl jnx ywofbwnx {wbxfbxbx kbj hohjn* bj f`nw wobxcn kb kb{bwonwn xbywbxbl{` bl jnx ñj{ofnx {wbx fbxbx kbj hohjn, Jnx{wbx fbxbx bl bj hbl{wn xnl rl ybwænkn bl prb xbkbgb {blbw ywbh`rhoøl

HOHJN KB ? FBXBXBx{wrh{rw` Gàxoh` kbj Hohjn kb ? Fbxbx

Hnlx{` kb knx hohjnx kb 79 xbf`l`x*b{oprb{`knx hnfn 'D`xb 0' 'D`xb7', Kbj foxfn fnkn* bj hohjn kb 79

xbf`l`x hnlx{` kb 7 D`xbx kb 09xbf`l`x h.r,

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WBXRFBLBj fbwh`kn kb t`jnwbx {oblkb ` fntbwxb bl hohjnx* ` hnw{n yj`qn %jj`f`kn hæhjohn/* ` j`wcnyj`qn %jj`f`kn xbhrj`w/,

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WBYWBXBL[@HOØL CWÀDOH@

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WBYWBXBL[@HOØL CWÀDOH@

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

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¾WB@JOK@K N DOHHOØL>

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HNLHJRXOØL

X[NHMF@WMB[H_HJBX,GJNCXYN[,HNF

Ynkbfnx ngxbwt`w bl jnx cwàdohnx prb j` f`nwæ` kb jnx ywbhonx xb frbtbl bl y`{wnlbxhæhjohnx prb bj rxn kbj @làjoxox Hæhjohn bx rl` dnwf` kb `l{ohoy`w jnx ybwænknx kb kbgojok`k

dnw{`jbq`, @j hnfoblqn* bj rxn kb hohjnx yrbkb y`wbhbw ngton b ol{ro{otn ybwn bl wb`jok`k yrbkbjjbc`w ` xbw fr dwrx{w`l{b* xngwb {nkn xo xb bxybw` ` prb jnx ywbhonx xb `arx{bl bu`h{`fbl{b` lrbx{w`x ywnbhhonlbx* jn hr`j ynw jn cblbw`j ln xrhbkb,

Ln e` knx ybwxnl`x bl bj frlkn prb r{ojohbl jnx hohjnx kb j` foxf` f`lbw`= olhjrxn jnx{w`kbwx n oltbwxonlox{`x prb r{ojoq`l fb{nknjncæ`x xofoj`wbx* ln lbhbx`wo`fbl{b jjbc`l ` j`xfoxf`x hnlhjrxonlbx, Jn fbanw bx* bl fo nyoloøl* r{ojoq`w j`x ywnbhhonlbx hæhjoh`x hnfn rlbjbfbl{n fàx kb xrx `làjoxox kbj fbwh`kn* kàlknjb fàx n fblnx ybxn bl drlhoøl kb prb {`lhbwh` kbj ywbhon xb blhrbl{wb hnldnwfb ` j` ywnbhhoøl kbj hohjn,