Date P&G1/3/2012 66.831/4/2012 66.80 -0.0449%1/5/2012 66.52 -0.4200%1/6/2012 66.36 -0.2408%1/9/2012 66.64 0.4211%

1/10/2012 66.33 -0.4663%1/11/2012 65.68 -0.9848%1/12/2012 65.81 0.1977%1/13/2012 65.81 0.0000%1/17/2012 66.26 0.6815%1/18/2012 66.03 -0.3477%1/19/2012 66.08 0.0757%1/20/2012 66.23 0.2267%1/23/2012 65.00 -1.8746%1/24/2012 64.50 -0.7722%1/25/2012 64.98 0.7414%1/26/2012 64.80 -0.2774%1/27/2012 64.30 -0.7746%1/30/2012 63.21 -1.7097%1/31/2012 63.04 -0.2693%2/1/2012 63.21 0.2693%2/2/2012 63.32 0.1739%2/3/2012 62.77 -0.8724%2/6/2012 63.51 1.1720%2/7/2012 63.70 0.2987%2/8/2012 63.64 -0.0942%2/9/2012 64.04 0.6266%

2/10/2012 63.88 -0.2502%2/13/2012 64.23 0.5464%2/14/2012 64.48 0.3885%2/15/2012 64.55 0.1085%2/16/2012 65.20 1.0019%2/17/2012 64.91 -0.4458%2/21/2012 64.42 -0.7578%2/22/2012 64.44 0.0310%2/23/2012 66.42 3.0264%2/24/2012 66.71 0.4357%2/27/2012 66.70 -0.0150%2/28/2012 67.39 1.0292%2/29/2012 67.62 0.3407%3/1/2012 66.66 -1.4299%3/2/2012 66.67 0.0150%3/5/2012 66.95 0.4191%

3/6/2012 66.84 -0.1644%3/7/2012 66.58 -0.3897%3/8/2012 66.90 0.4795%3/9/2012 66.93 0.0448%

3/12/2012 67.71 1.1587%3/13/2012 67.90 0.2802%3/14/2012 67.85 -0.0737%3/15/2012 67.68 -0.2509%3/16/2012 67.25 -0.6374%3/19/2012 67.21 -0.0595%3/20/2012 67.21 0.0000%3/21/2012 67.20 -0.0149%3/22/2012 67.52 0.4751%3/23/2012 67.43 -0.1334%3/26/2012 67.46 0.0445%3/27/2012 67.15 -0.4606%3/28/2012 67.19 0.0596%3/29/2012 67.01 -0.2683%3/30/2012 67.21 0.2980%4/2/2012 67.56 0.5194%4/3/2012 67.09 -0.6981%4/4/2012 67.26 0.2531%4/5/2012 67.31 0.0743%4/9/2012 66.81 -0.7456%

4/10/2012 66.35 -0.6909%4/11/2012 66.44 0.1356%4/12/2012 66.09 -0.5282%4/13/2012 65.81 -0.4246%4/16/2012 66.78 1.4632%4/17/2012 67.02 0.3587%4/18/2012 66.75 -0.4037%4/19/2012 66.57 -0.2700%4/20/2012 67.51 1.4022%4/23/2012 66.65 -1.2821%4/24/2012 67.00 0.5238%4/25/2012 66.89 -0.1643%4/26/2012 66.87 -0.0299%4/27/2012 64.44 -3.7016%4/30/2012 63.64 -1.2492%5/1/2012 63.57 -0.1101%5/2/2012 63.98 0.6429%5/3/2012 64.51 0.8250%5/4/2012 64.28 -0.3572%5/7/2012 64.25 -0.0467%5/8/2012 64.16 -0.1402%5/9/2012 63.67 -0.7666%

5/10/2012 64.14 0.7355%5/11/2012 63.68 -0.7198%

5/14/2012 63.58 -0.1572%5/15/2012 63.72 0.2200%5/16/2012 64.29 0.8906%5/17/2012 63.96 -0.5146%5/18/2012 63.52 -0.6903%5/21/2012 63.39 -0.2049%5/22/2012 63.15 -0.3793%5/23/2012 62.39 -1.2108%5/24/2012 62.57 0.2881%5/25/2012 62.49 -0.1279%5/29/2012 62.95 0.7334%5/30/2012 62.32 -1.0058%5/31/2012 62.29 -0.0482%6/1/2012 61.55 -1.1951%6/4/2012 61.40 -0.2440%6/5/2012 61.17 -0.3753%6/6/2012 61.80 1.0246%6/7/2012 62.76 1.5415%6/8/2012 62.75 -0.0159%

6/11/2012 62.54 -0.3352%6/12/2012 62.76 0.3512%6/13/2012 62.57 -0.3032%6/14/2012 63.18 0.9702%6/15/2012 62.88 -0.4760%6/18/2012 62.29 -0.9427%6/19/2012 62.21 -0.1285%6/20/2012 60.39 -2.9692%6/21/2012 59.75 -1.0654%6/22/2012 59.83 0.1338%6/25/2012 59.31 -0.8729%6/26/2012 59.27 -0.0675%6/27/2012 59.98 1.1908%6/28/2012 60.29 0.5155%6/29/2012 61.25 1.5798%7/2/2012 61.19 -0.0980%7/3/2012 61.36 0.2774%7/5/2012 61.35 -0.0163%7/6/2012 61.28 -0.1142%7/9/2012 61.55 0.4396%

7/10/2012 61.73 0.2920%7/11/2012 61.40 -0.5360%7/12/2012 63.70 3.6775%7/13/2012 65.09 2.1586%7/16/2012 64.81 -0.4311%7/17/2012 65.35 0.8298%7/18/2012 64.82 -0.8143%7/19/2012 64.92 0.1542%7/20/2012 64.73 -0.2931%

7/23/2012 64.39 -0.5266%7/24/2012 64.02 -0.5763%7/25/2012 64.02 0.0000%7/26/2012 64.56 0.8399%7/27/2012 65.09 0.8176%7/30/2012 65.10 0.0154%7/31/2012 64.54 -0.8639%8/1/2012 64.01 -0.8246%8/2/2012 63.51 -0.7842%8/3/2012 65.50 3.0853%8/6/2012 65.81 0.4722%8/7/2012 66.22 0.6211%8/8/2012 66.72 0.7522%8/9/2012 66.73 0.0150%

8/10/2012 66.77 0.0599%8/13/2012 66.48 -0.4353%8/14/2012 66.73 0.3753%8/15/2012 66.64 -0.1350%8/16/2012 67.00 0.5388%8/17/2012 67.00 0.0000%8/20/2012 66.75 -0.3738%8/21/2012 66.77 0.0300%8/22/2012 66.85 0.1197%8/23/2012 66.68 -0.2546%8/24/2012 67.02 0.5086%8/27/2012 67.11 0.1342%8/28/2012 66.99 -0.1790%8/29/2012 66.87 -0.1793%8/30/2012 66.88 0.0150%8/31/2012 67.19 0.4624%9/4/2012 67.40 0.3121%9/5/2012 67.29 -0.1633%9/6/2012 68.24 1.4019%9/7/2012 68.52 0.4095%

9/10/2012 68.51 -0.0146%9/11/2012 68.26 -0.3656%9/12/2012 68.10 -0.2347%9/13/2012 68.91 1.1824%9/14/2012 69.16 0.3621%9/17/2012 69.25 0.1300%9/18/2012 69.22 -0.0433%9/19/2012 69.26 0.0578%9/20/2012 69.56 0.4322%9/21/2012 69.42 -0.2015%9/24/2012 69.76 0.4886%9/25/2012 69.59 -0.2440%9/26/2012 69.30 -0.4176%9/27/2012 69.30 0.0000%

9/28/2012 69.36 0.0865%10/1/2012 69.45 0.1297%10/2/2012 68.79 -0.9549%10/3/2012 69.17 0.5509%10/4/2012 69.38 0.3031%10/5/2012 69.63 0.3597%10/8/2012 69.10 -0.7641%10/9/2012 68.70 -0.5806%

10/10/2012 68.14 -0.8185%10/11/2012 68.00 -0.2057%10/12/2012 67.94 -0.0883%10/15/2012 68.71 1.1270%10/16/2012 69.00 0.4212%10/17/2012 69.47 0.6789%10/18/2012 69.47 0.0000%10/19/2012 68.57 -1.3040%10/22/2012 68.50 -0.1021%10/23/2012 67.44 -1.5595%10/24/2012 68.08 0.9445%10/25/2012 70.07 2.8811%10/26/2012 69.44 -0.9032%10/31/2012 69.24 -0.2884%11/1/2012 69.25 0.0144%11/2/2012 69.19 -0.0867%11/5/2012 68.67 -0.7544%11/6/2012 68.93 0.3779%11/7/2012 68.06 -1.2702%11/8/2012 66.91 -1.7041%11/9/2012 67.01 0.1493%

11/12/2012 67.08 0.1044%11/13/2012 66.85 -0.3435%11/14/2012 66.53 -0.4798%11/15/2012 66.32 -0.3161%11/16/2012 66.82 0.7511%11/19/2012 67.92 1.6328%11/20/2012 68.30 0.5579%11/21/2012 68.47 0.2486%11/23/2012 69.59 1.6225%11/26/2012 69.48 -0.1582%11/27/2012 68.99 -0.7077%11/28/2012 69.44 0.6502%11/29/2012 69.50 0.0864%11/30/2012 69.83 0.4737%12/3/2012 69.58 -0.3587%12/4/2012 69.31 -0.3888%12/5/2012 69.41 0.1442%12/6/2012 69.95 0.7750%12/7/2012 70.29 0.4849%

12/10/2012 70.22 -0.0996%12/11/2012 70.66 0.6246%12/12/2012 70.76 0.1414%12/13/2012 70.13 -0.8943%12/14/2012 69.93 -0.2856%12/17/2012 69.93 0.0000%12/18/2012 69.97 0.0572%12/19/2012 69.34 -0.9045%12/20/2012 69.82 0.6899%12/21/2012 68.72 -1.5880%12/24/2012 68.52 -0.2915%12/26/2012 68.00 -0.7618%12/27/2012 67.97 -0.0441%12/28/2012 67.15 -1.2138%12/31/2012 67.89 1.0960%

0.0063%0.8234%

METODO MONTECARLO

Precio inicial 67.89Promedio 0.006%Desv_est 0.823%Pasos 100

0.01ESCENARIOS

Pasos Aleatorio St D1 D2 D3 D467.89 67.89 67.89 67.89 67.89

1 0.6645868 67.91 68.02 67.82 67.83 67.85 2 0.3084102 67.89 67.98 67.87 67.83 67.83 3 0.1268936 67.82 68.05 67.86 67.83 67.87 4 0.2528850 67.78 68.03 67.89 67.79 67.84 5 0.1480746 67.73 68.05 67.83 67.75 67.82 6 0.6523856 67.75 67.98 67.87 67.87 67.81 7 0.0503822 67.66 67.96 67.85 67.90 67.77 8 0.9279195 67.74 67.85 67.88 67.90 67.83 9 0.4062755 67.73 67.81 67.90 67.91 67.88

10 0.0506404 67.63 67.83 67.81 67.93 67.76 11 0.5095340 67.64 67.86 67.81 67.98 67.80 12 0.9557728 67.73 67.88 67.74 67.95 67.78 13 0.4958070 67.73 67.76 67.76 67.90 67.86 14 0.5055484 67.73 67.70 67.75 67.89 67.92 15 0.7450277 67.77 67.65 67.83 67.83 67.83 16 0.1604773 67.71 67.65 67.88 67.82 67.86 17 0.9004256 67.78 67.67 67.82 67.93 67.86 18 0.3058458 67.76 67.69 67.82 67.95 67.89 19 0.7302425 67.79 67.66 67.78 67.92 67.93 20 0.0737735 67.71 67.62 67.74 68.00 68.01 21 0.1323614 67.65 67.62 67.69 68.08 68.11 22 0.3521045 67.63 67.66 67.64 68.08 68.11 23 0.2114350 67.58 67.69 67.65 68.14 68.17 24 0.6834254 67.61 67.75 67.65 68.14 68.13 25 0.5051636 67.61 67.79 67.56 68.14 67.99 26 0.0968242 67.54 67.83 67.56 68.03 68.00 27 0.5595473 67.54 67.80 67.56 67.93 67.97 28 0.3145114 67.52 67.78 67.56 67.80 68.03 29 0.8200761 67.57 67.69 67.53 67.80 68.08 30 0.5446809 67.57 67.76 67.54 67.77 68.05 31 0.3615775 67.56 67.74 67.52 67.79 68.09 32 0.3683377 67.54 67.69 67.53 67.64 68.13 33 0.7063734 67.57 67.72 67.66 67.70 68.04 34 0.4963015 67.57 67.77 67.61 67.74 68.07 35 0.2674641 67.53 67.86 67.58 67.69 68.04 36 0.3677350 67.51 67.79 67.62 67.62 68.05 37 0.2938657 67.48 67.72 67.59 67.59 68.03 38 0.9359062 67.57 67.72 67.51 67.58 68.08

39 0.5447440 67.57 67.76 67.56 67.61 67.99 40 0.6988737 67.60 67.77 67.52 67.65 67.97 41 0.6999033 67.63 67.76 67.57 67.68 68.05 42 0.0093105 67.50 67.72 67.49 67.71 68.10 43 0.7728133 67.54 67.71 67.46 67.71 68.06 44 0.7881429 67.59 67.72 67.37 67.61 68.02 45 0.3066403 67.56 67.69 67.42 67.63 68.08 46 0.0259918 67.45 67.60 67.46 67.66 68.05 47 0.9973100 67.61 67.58 67.56 67.61 67.97 48 0.1040948 67.54 67.56 67.47 67.63 67.94 49 0.8682018 67.60 67.54 67.57 67.60 67.89 50 0.7545419 67.64 67.60 67.59 67.55 67.85 51 0.6288848 67.65 67.56 67.63 67.56 67.81 52 0.7505413 67.69 67.42 67.67 67.48 67.72 53 0.2978854 67.66 67.39 67.70 67.40 67.73 54 0.7455121 67.70 67.41 67.71 67.36 67.74 55 0.0367658 67.60 67.43 67.65 67.25 67.74 56 0.3147711 67.57 67.42 67.62 67.31 67.80 57 0.9665289 67.68 67.30 67.70 67.41 67.91 58 0.2366409 67.64 67.27 67.64 67.35 67.92 59 0.9021320 67.71 67.24 67.66 67.32 67.98 60 0.7892881 67.75 67.24 67.58 67.26 67.94 61 0.5185023 67.75 67.21 67.58 67.26 67.91 62 0.2635991 67.72 67.15 67.54 67.16 67.94 63 0.2983567 67.69 67.27 67.63 67.18 67.86 64 0.1074969 67.62 67.20 67.59 67.13 67.91 65 0.6233256 67.64 67.22 67.55 67.21 67.94 66 0.8684316 67.70 67.29 67.68 67.14 67.96 67 0.4157144 67.69 67.31 67.64 67.07 67.92 68 0.1163401 67.62 67.36 67.67 67.06 67.88 69 0.2162371 67.58 67.37 67.66 67.14 67.97 70 0.1171753 67.51 67.40 67.55 67.14 67.90 71 0.3607787 67.49 67.33 67.46 67.20 67.90 72 0.9949663 67.64 67.31 67.48 67.26 68.01 73 0.6547636 67.66 67.34 67.55 67.18 67.99 74 0.7801787 67.70 67.52 67.60 67.23 68.03 75 0.1852689 67.65 67.60 67.67 67.28 67.97 76 0.3251377 67.63 67.52 67.68 67.34 67.88 77 0.1923019 67.58 67.51 67.70 67.29 67.90 78 0.6303148 67.60 67.54 67.75 67.25 67.92 79 0.8851622 67.66 67.57 67.83 67.21 67.90 80 0.0657955 67.58 67.57 67.82 67.23 67.85 81 0.6980326 67.61 67.61 67.81 67.26 67.86 82 0.6965902 67.64 67.67 67.82 67.28 67.88 83 0.1947686 67.59 67.70 67.89 67.33 67.78 84 0.0169712 67.47 67.63 67.85 67.33 67.77 85 0.2154014 67.43 67.53 67.80 67.38 67.77 86 0.0822527 67.35 67.57 67.73 67.30 67.73

87 0.9500269 67.44 67.63 67.79 67.24 67.61 88 0.2371689 67.40 67.53 67.74 67.27 67.58 89 0.9918786 67.54 67.55 67.60 67.32 67.57 90 0.1495492 67.48 67.52 67.57 67.28 67.58 91 0.9579328 67.57 67.57 67.51 67.29 67.56 92 0.1425522 67.51 67.55 67.63 67.37 67.51 93 0.6234431 67.53 67.59 67.61 67.39 67.39 94 0.7063459 67.56 67.68 67.63 67.37 67.37 95 0.2233589 67.52 67.65 67.66 67.41 67.42 96 0.1348585 67.46 67.67 67.61 67.32 67.30 97 0.1286722 67.40 67.68 67.58 67.29 67.33 98 0.6605265 67.42 67.63 67.55 67.35 67.36 99 0.0851191 67.34 67.66 67.60 67.34 67.39

100 0.7402544 67.38 67.66 67.52 67.35 67.32

ESCENARIOS CALCULO VARD5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10

67.89 67.89 67.89 67.89 67.89 67.89 0 67.85 67.79 67.96 67.85 67.84 67.93 1 67.85 67.82 67.90 67.87 67.94 67.93 2 67.90 67.77 67.88 67.86 67.91 67.97 3 67.99 67.78 67.90 67.83 67.92 67.87 4 67.94 67.71 67.96 67.90 67.89 67.89 5 67.94 67.70 67.98 67.90 67.83 67.91 6 67.93 67.69 67.99 67.91 67.84 67.92 7 67.84 67.66 68.02 67.87 67.83 67.90 8 67.89 67.62 68.00 67.94 67.91 67.98 9 67.82 67.59 68.05 67.92 67.83 67.93 67.81 67.54 67.99 67.87 67.78 67.82 67.77 67.55 67.96 67.90 67.81 67.87 67.76 67.57 67.98 67.86 67.83 67.77 67.68 67.64 67.97 67.83 67.88 67.86 67.67 67.63 68.01 67.85 67.87 67.93 67.64 67.60 68.02 67.79 67.85 67.90 67.64 67.57 68.08 67.84 67.87 67.95 67.73 67.62 68.06 67.83 67.93 67.89 67.86 67.57 67.96 67.93 67.93 67.95 67.90 67.52 68.00 67.99 68.13 67.96 67.88 67.48 67.95 67.97 68.20 67.98 67.96 67.64 67.85 67.95 68.27 67.97 67.91 67.66 67.78 67.96 68.27 67.84 67.92 67.53 67.73 68.11 68.35 67.75 67.81 67.50 67.70 68.11 68.35 67.72 67.88 67.59 67.71 68.12 68.36 67.74 67.81 67.65 67.71 68.13 68.44 67.65 67.89 67.77 67.63 68.16 68.42 67.62 67.83 67.76 67.71 68.21 68.42 67.58 67.85 67.82 67.60 68.25 68.44 67.44 67.83 67.85 67.52 68.28 68.40 67.41 67.76 67.91 67.45 68.24 68.44 67.45 67.77 67.81 67.43 68.28 68.53 67.46 67.85 67.83 67.55 68.38 68.51 67.44 67.77 67.80 67.53 68.37 68.57 67.39 67.68 67.80 67.49 68.50 68.59 67.35 67.69 67.79 67.44 68.48 68.52 67.29 67.60 67.77 67.39 68.51 68.62 67.32

67.48 67.72 67.39 68.34 68.70 67.35 67.53 67.78 67.38 68.29 68.69 67.28 67.54 67.65 67.25 68.32 68.63 67.40 67.56 67.52 67.24 68.33 68.66 67.43 67.63 67.54 67.28 68.32 68.76 67.51 67.69 67.47 67.29 68.22 68.79 67.51 67.73 67.36 67.36 68.25 68.89 67.53 67.67 67.38 67.37 68.26 68.86 67.50 67.63 67.38 67.38 68.29 68.75 67.43 67.61 67.40 67.43 68.19 68.78 67.49 67.64 67.29 67.47 68.26 68.75 67.41 67.74 67.28 67.55 68.19 68.68 67.38 67.80 67.27 67.54 68.19 68.67 67.36 67.81 67.25 67.55 68.28 68.75 67.29 67.85 67.25 67.52 68.26 68.80 67.30 67.91 67.19 67.57 68.27 68.89 67.27 67.86 67.21 67.56 68.33 68.86 67.29 67.94 67.23 67.62 68.31 68.80 67.33 67.92 67.28 67.74 68.29 68.82 67.38 67.87 67.24 67.69 68.35 68.89 67.31 67.88 67.27 67.66 68.33 68.85 67.30 67.90 67.20 67.64 68.31 68.81 67.27 67.87 67.24 67.64 68.27 68.88 67.30 67.86 67.36 67.75 68.35 68.73 67.28 67.82 67.48 67.81 68.29 68.81 67.26 67.76 67.43 67.87 68.23 68.75 67.26 67.77 67.33 67.90 68.22 68.68 67.21 67.74 67.34 67.88 68.37 68.66 67.22 67.66 67.36 67.89 68.44 68.66 67.29 67.64 67.38 67.92 68.48 68.66 67.14 67.59 67.42 67.92 68.50 68.60 67.20 67.60 67.50 67.81 68.55 68.53 67.16 67.55 67.43 67.75 68.45 68.50 67.17 67.52 67.38 67.62 68.47 68.43 67.24 67.53 67.32 67.61 68.52 68.47 67.31 67.52 67.32 67.62 68.50 68.40 67.34 67.42 67.32 67.62 68.45 68.48 67.37 67.50 67.35 67.64 68.61 68.52 67.40 67.45 67.42 67.59 68.64 68.53 67.44 67.38 67.33 67.59 68.66 68.49 67.52 67.34 67.39 67.55 68.70 68.53 67.52 67.45 67.34 67.58 68.67 68.55 67.62 67.48 67.38 67.57 68.79 68.61 67.66 67.42 67.40 67.51 68.85 68.55 67.60 67.46 67.36 67.55 68.83 68.48 67.53 67.45 67.33 67.52 68.78 68.56 67.47 67.32 67.34 67.44 68.77 68.64 67.57 67.31 67.38 67.50 68.81 68.70 67.53

67.31 67.37 67.42 68.72 68.68 67.55 67.37 67.39 67.38 68.69 68.73 67.54 67.36 67.34 67.43 68.64 68.65 67.57 67.36 67.42 67.47 68.60 68.69 67.53 67.34 67.34 67.43 68.57 68.73 67.62 67.38 67.38 67.43 68.56 68.66 67.68 67.46 67.44 67.47 68.52 68.67 67.72 67.44 67.36 67.43 68.54 68.66 67.72 67.43 67.42 67.45 68.68 68.72 67.80 67.41 67.42 67.41 68.68 68.81 67.78 67.43 67.34 67.35 68.75 68.87 67.85 67.47 67.45 67.46 68.82 68.91 67.95 67.42 67.44 67.38 68.79 68.91 67.97 67.46 67.35 67.32 68.78 68.95 67.90

CALCULO VAR

67.66 67.52 (0.15) (1.05) 11.1% 67.35 (0.16) 67.32 22.2% VAR 20% 67.32 (0.04) 67.35 33.3% 67.46 0.15 67.35 44.4% 67.35 (0.11) 67.46 55.6% 67.32 (0.03) 67.52 66.7% 68.78 1.46 67.66 77.8% 68.95 0.17 67.90 88.9% 67.90 (1.05) 68.78 100.0%