asuntos de gobernabilidad y corrupcion en … de gobernabilidad y corrupcion en america latina...
TRANSCRIPT
Asuntos de Gobernabilidad y Corrupcion enAmerica Latina (incluyendo Chile) en un marco
empirico comparativo
Daniel Kaufmann, Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Presentacion en el Foro "Corrupción en Chile y America Latina los desafíos pendientes“
organizado por Espacio Publico y UAI,
UAI Campus, Santiago, 6 de Octubre
1
Perspectiva sobre ‘escandalos’
• America Latina y Chile: Logros, no solo desafios…
• Escandalos como estudios de caso de las distintasmanifestaciones de corrupcion, y de como susofisticacion ha cambiado
• Antes: transaccion de coima tradicional entre 2
• Hoy en dia: Importancia de ‘Networks’ (Redes) de corrupcion, nacionales e internacionales, y de ‘Capturadel Estado’…
• Corrupcion como sintoma de debilidad institucional, necesidad de estudiar esquema amplio de gobernabilidad
2
3
Media
Private Sector
Municipal Government
Military
State (Bureaucracy)Political Parties
Civil Society
International Legislative Branch
Judiciary
1
La Red de Corrupcion en Peru durante el caso de Montesinos/Fujimori
Source: “Robust Web of Corruption: Peru’s Intelligence Chief Vladimiro Montesinos,” Kennedy School of Government Case Program, Case C14-04-1722.0, based on research by Professor Luis Moreno Ocampo; Peru: Resource Dependency Network, 2000
Vladimiro Montesinos
Alberto Fujimori
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes) • Caso FIFA
– Basics: Chuck Blazer and other FIFA officials from CONCACAF and CONMEBOL received bribes and colluded with sports marketing executives
– Corruption: Bribery of an unspecified amount in exchange for lucrative contracts and influencing votes
– Consequences: U.S. has indicted 14 individuals, 13 of them arrested
• Brazil: Caso Petrobras
– Basics: Roberto Costa and other former Petrobras executives colluded with construction companies to inflate contracts signed with Petrobras
– Corruption: Collusion network of money laundering and bribery of over $2 billion, illicit campaign financing
– Consequences: Several executives and high ranking officials have been arrested or are under investigation, former President Lula also questioned
• Brazil: Caso World Cup (“White Elephants”) Construction
– Basics: Firms have inflated the costs of World Cup construction with many stadiums likely to go unused
– Corruption: Procurement fraud and price gouging of unspecified amount
– Consequences: It could take years for official audits to be finalized and judged4
Source: AFP, http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/sports/06/02/15/look-key-players-fifa-scandal
Brazil: Petrobras
Source: Ministerio Publico Federal, http://pt.slideshare.net/arykara7002/fluxograma-do-dinheiro-da
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)• Chile: Caso Caval
– Basics: Sebastian Davalos used political connections for loan in 2015 to purchase real estate
– Corruption: Influence peddling to receive $10m loan, made $5m profit
– Consequences: Investigations have been hindered, with an extension being blocked by President’s allies.
• Chile: Caso Pentagate
– Basics: Tax official Ivan Alvarez gave fraudulent tax refunds; officials received political donations from Penta Group
– Corruption: Collusion network of tax fraud, money laundering, and illicit campaign financing
– Consequences: Arrests were made and an advisory council appointed, but reforms have made little progress
• Colombia: Caso Fidupetrol
– Basics: Judge Jorge Pretelt solicited bribe in 2015 to influence ruling in case involving Fidupetrol
– Corruption: Bribery of $210,000 to influence ruling
– Consequences: Pretelt has stepped down as investigation continues7
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)• Mexico: Caso Casa La Palma
– Basics: First Lady Angelica Rivera bought mansion in 2012 from construction company Grupo Higa, which allegedly got lucrative government contracts
– Corruption: Bribery of unspecified amount in the awarding of public contracts
– Consequences: The President and First Lady have been cleared of all charges
• Mexico: Caso Iguala Mass Kidnapping
– Basics: Iguala Mayor Velazquez and wife behind 2014 abduction and killing of 43 students who were handed over to local crime syndicate by corrupt police
– Corruption: Collusion between government and police forces with organized crime networks
– Consequences: Those involved were arrested and a new anti-crime plan was put in place following mass protests
• Argentina: Caso Boudougate
– Basics: Vice President Boudou saved printing company Ciccone Calcografica in 2010 and profited from the company’s government contracts
– Corruption: Influence peddling and illicit public procurement worth $170 million
– Consequences: Investigation is still ongoing, but Boudou remains in office8
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)• Panama: Caso National Assistance Program
– Basics: Officials in former President Ricardo Martinelli’s administration inflated contracts of Panama’s National Assistance Program from 2009-2014
– Corruption: Price gouging of procurement contracts in exchange for bribes
– Consequences: Several officials have been arrested and Martinelli was stripped of his immunity, but is believed to be hiding abroad
• Panama: Caso Martinelli Megaprojects
– Basics: Former President Ricardo Martinelli received a cut from several of the “megaprojects” he pushed
– Corruption: Bribery of an unspecified amount in public procurement contracts
– Consequences: Several officials have been arrested and Martinelli was stripped of his immunity, but is believed to be hiding abroad
• Guatemala: Caso La Linea
– Basics: Juan Carlos Monzon, secretary of the Vice President headed a fraud network, undercharging import customs duties in exchange for kickbacks
– Corruption: Collusion network to avoid tax payments of unspecified amount
– Consequences: President Molinas has resigned and is on trial for his alleged involvement
9
Casos de Corrupción en America Latina (selectivos, recientes)
• Peru: Caso Nadine Hereria
– Basics: First Lady Nadine Hereria accused of money laundering funds from Venezuelan companies to finance her husband’s 2011 election campaign.
– Corruption: Money laundering and illicit campaign financing of $250,000
– Consequences: Investigations are ongoing
• Venezuela: Caso Ferrominera
– Basics: State-owned Ferrominera sold ore to intermediaries below value in exchange for kickbacks
– Corruption: Bribery resulting in $1.2 billion in ore sold at a fraction of real value
– Consequences: Chairman of Ferrominera Radwan Sabbagh and businessman Yamal Mustafa have been arrested.
10
Bribery vs. State Capture, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
Corporate Bribery Corporate
"Legal Corruption"
% F
irm
s rep
ort
'corru
pti
on
'
Nordic Countries
G-7
East Asia
'Tigers' (NICs)
Latin America
United States
Source: Author’s calculations based on EOS 2004.
% Firms report ‘corruption’
Corrupción: enfoque alternativo• Corrupción como síntoma de un fracaso institucional
• Definición tradicional de corrupción: abuso del poder publico para beneficio propio
• Lo tradicional ignoraba corrupción política/alto nivel, el rol de las elites en el sector privado, y la ‘corrupción legal’
• Importancia de enfocarse en influencia indebida en las reglas del juego, leyes, regulaciones y políticas publicas, que conllevan a la “captura del estado”
• ‘Otra’ definición: “privatización de la política pública”• Red de politicos, organizaciones, empresas y particulares que
coluden para beneficiarse del acceso al poder, a los recursos publicosy formulacion de politicas, en detrimento del bien publico
• Captura de los partidos políticos mediante el financiamiento de sus campañas
• Necesidad de esquema amplio de gobernabilidad
La Multi-Dimensionalidad de Gobernanza, y sus Indicadores
• El proceso por el cual aquellos en autoridad son seleccionados y remplazados– VOZ Y RENDICIÓN DE CUENTAS – ESTABILIDAD POLÍTICA & AUSENCIA DE VIOLENCIA/TERRORISMO
• La capacidad del gobierno para formular e implementar políticas– EFECTIVIDAD DEL GOBIERNO– CALIDAD REGULATORIA
• Respeto de ciudadanos y el estado a instituciones que gobiernan las interacciones entre ellos – ESTADO DE DERECHO – CONTROL DE LA CORRUPCIÓN
Gobernanza: conjunto de tradiciones e instituciones a través de los cuales se ejercita la autoridad en un país -- específicamente:
13
14
Datos de Gobernabilidad
• Datos de gobernabilidad de 30 fuentes diferentes
• Las fuentes de datos incluyen encuestas por países de
empresas, agencias de clasificación del riesgo comerciales,
think-tanks, agencias gubernamentales, agencias
internacionales, etc..
• Cientos de variables e indicadores sobre gobernabilidad
• Organizar estas medidas en los 6 componentes de
gobernabilidad, desde 1996 hasta hoy
• Metodo Estadistico avanzado de agregacion – U.C.M.
15
Fuentes de Datos de Gobernanza
• Cross-Country Surveys of Firms: Global Competitiveness Survey, World Competitiveness Yearbook, BEEPS
• Cross-Country Surveys of Individuals: Gallup World Poll, Global Corruption Barometer, Latinobarometro, Afrobarometer
• Expert Assessments from Commercial Risk Rating Agencies:Global Insight, Political Risk Services, BERI, Economist Intelligence Unit, Merchant International Group, IJET Travel Consultancy, Asia Risk Consultancy
• Expert Assessments from NGOs, Think Tanks: Reporters Without Borders, Heritage Foundation, Freedom House, Bertelsmann Foundation, Amnesty International, IREX, Global Integrity, Binghamton University, International Budget Project
• Expert Assessments from Governments, Multilaterals: World Bank CPIA, EBRD, AFDB, ADB, State Department, OECD, IFAD
Indicadores Mundiales de Gobernabilidad (WGI):Comparacion de America Latina con otras Regiones (2014)
-1.75
-1.25
-0.75
-0.25
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
OECD High Income - excl.HI CEE
Emerging East Asia Central/Eastern Europe Latin America
Wo
rld
wid
e G
ove
rnan
ce In
dic
ato
r Sc
ore
Voice and Accountability Government Effectiveness
Rule of Law Control of Corruption
Source: Kaufmann, D., A. Krray and M. Mastruzzi “The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues”, data at http://www.govindicators.org, author’s calculations. Theoretical range of indicators is from -2.5 to +2.5 (standard deviation units).
Good
Poor
16
WGI Control de la Corrupcion: 2002-2014
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
High IncomeOECD
All EmergingCountries
Emerging East Asia Central/EasternEurope
Latin America
Wo
rld
wid
e G
ove
rnan
ce In
dic
ato
r Sc
ore
2002 2014
Note: From the WGI set of countries, ‘Emerging’ consists of 183 countries that are not high income developed OECD (but includes a few high income emerging economies in East Asia and Central/Eastern European). ‘High Income OECD countries’ includes 24 countries, ‘Emerging East Asia’ countries includes 10 countries, ‘Central/Eastern Europe’ includes 18 countries, and ‘Latin America’ includes 21 countries. Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators (http://www.govindicators.org). Author’s calculations.
Control de corrupción en países de América Latina (WGI)
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Chile Uruguay Costa Rica Brazil Colombia Peru Argentina Mexico Paraguay Venezuela
Co
ntr
ol o
f C
orr
up
tio
n S
core
, WG
I
2000 2014
18Selected countries shown. Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, www.govindicators.org . Author’s calculations
Good
Poor
Control de la corrupción 2002 & 2014:Ricos en RRNN vs No ricos en RRNN
-1.25
-0.75
-0.25
0.25
0.75
1.25
Non-Resource Rich avg Resource Rich avg
Wo
rld
wid
e G
ove
rnan
ce In
dic
ato
r Z-
Sco
re
2002 2014
Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, www.govindicators.org19
índice de presupuesto abierto: Algunos Países
25
50
75
100
Ecuador ElSalvador
CostaRica
Chile Argentina Mexico Peru Brazil
Op
en
Bu
dge
t In
dex
Sco
re
2010 2012 2015
Note: Chile’s rank in 2010 is 8 out of 94 and in 2015 is 27 out of 102.Source: International Budget Partnership, 2015 Open Budget Index, http://internationalbudget.org/opening-budgets/open-budget-initiative/open-budget-survey/
20
El impacto de Gobernabilidad y Control de la Corrupcion
22
El Dividendo de desarrollo de mejoras en gobernabilidad y control de la corrupcion
Sources: GDP per capita (atop each column) from World Bank World Development Indicators, 2012.Corruption Control data from Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI, 2012) Countries grouped into terciles based on WGI Control of Corruption scores. Resource Rich country classification according to IMF (2010).
Poor Corruption Control Average CorruptionControl
Good CorruptionControl
GD
P p
er
ca
pit
a (
PP
P)
Resource-Rich Countries Non Resource Rich
5,000
0
10,000
6,851
3,941
12,712
10,272
45,000
30,820
23
Inequidad en América Latina(data GINI más reciente)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60W
orl
d
Eme
rgin
g
Eme
rgin
g R
R
Eme
rgin
g N
on
-RR
LatA
m
LatA
m R
R
LatA
m N
on
-RR
GIN
I Co
effi
cie
nt
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
Calificaciones promedio en matemáticas en 2012 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA)
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Shan
ghai
, Ch
ina
Sin
gap
ore
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
Sar
Taiw
an
Ko
rea,
Re
p.
Mac
ao S
ar
Jap
an
East
Asi
a av
g
Vie
tnam
Ch
ile
Mal
aysi
a
Me
xico
Lati
n A
mer
ica
avg
Bra
zil
Arg
enti
na
Co
lom
bia
Ind
on
esia
Pe
ru
PIS
A S
core
Source: 2012 OECD PISA http://www.oecd.org/pisa/PISA is the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment. The latest in 2012 covered students from 65 countries and economies.
Indicador de Innovacion: # de aplicaciones para patentes
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ch
ina
Jap
an
Ko
rea,
Re
p.
Isra
el
Bra
zil
Me
xico
Arg
enti
na
Ch
ile
Tota
l Pat
en
t A
pp
licat
ion
s
800,000
200,000
300,000
500,000
400,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: World Intellectual Property Organization, total by applicant’s country of origin
FIN
NZL
DNKSWE
CHE SGPLUX
AUSCAN
NLDDEuAUT
HKG
CHL
TUR
IRLUSA
GBR
GRC
HUN
PRTFRA
JPNITAHRV
POL
SVKCZE
ISRSVN
KOREST
ESP
BEL
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Control of Corruption, 2008
Bud
geta
ry B
alan
ce, 2
006-
2009
Graph from: D. Kaufmann, ‘Corruption and Budget Deficits in Industrialized Countries:’, Sources of Data for this graph: Control of Corruption, 2008 from the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI): Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi, “Governance Matters VIII” (2009). Higher value means better Corruption Control. Budget Balance: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), average for budget balance for 2006-2009. A positive (negative) value for budget balance depicts a budgetary surplus (deficit). Chart shows sample of 35 countries of the OECD and other high income economies, except for oil-rich and small islands.
Are Budgetary Deficits in Industrialized Countries Associated with Corruption?
r = .6
Budget
Deficit
Surplus
Good
Control of
Corruption
Sovereign Bond % Yield vsWorldwide Governance Indicator Composite: The ‘1,000 basis points dividend of good governance’…?
Australia
AustriaBelgium
Botswana
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Croatia
Czech RepublicDenmark
Egypt, Arab Rep.
FinlandFranceGermany
Greece
Hong Kong SAR, China
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
IrelandIsraelItaly
Japan
Kenya
Korea, Rep.Latvia
Lithuania
Malaysia
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Pakistan
PhilippinesPoland
Portugal
Romania
Russian Federation
Singapore
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan, China
Thailand
Turkey
Uganda
United KingdomUnited States
Vietnam
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
20
14
So
vere
ign
Bo
nd
% Y
ield
2013 Worldwide Governance Indicator Score
r = -0.776
Sovereign Bond % Yield is obtained from countries’ 10-year bonds as of April 21, 2014. Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, available at: www.govindicators.org and 10-Year Government Bond Spreads, available at: www.investing.com/rates-bonds/government-bond-spreads.
28
Índice Global de Competitividad: Algunos Países 2007-2015
2
3
4
5
6
7V
enez
uel
a
Arg
enti
na
Bra
zil
Pe
ru
Co
lom
bia
Me
xico
Co
sta
Ric
a
Pan
ama
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ru
ssia
Aze
rbai
jan
Ind
on
esi
a
Ch
ile
Spai
n
Thai
lan
d
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Esto
nia
Ch
ina
Isra
el
Ko
rea,
Re
p.
Mal
aysi
a
Taiw
an
Fin
lan
d
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
Jap
an
Ne
ther
lan
ds
Ger
man
y
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Sin
gap
ore
Swit
zerl
and
Glo
bal
Co
mp
eti
tive
ne
ss In
dex
2007 2015
Note: Chile’s rank in 2007 is 26 out of 131 and in 2015 is 35 out of 140.Source: World Economic Forum, 2015-2016 Global Competitiveness Report, http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2015-2016/
29
Índice Global de Competitividad: Chile 2007, 2015
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
GC
I Co
mp
osi
te
Inst
itu
tio
ns
Infr
astr
uct
ure
Mac
roec
on
om
ice
nvi
ron
me
nt
Hea
lth
an
d p
rim
ary
ed
uca
tio
n
Hig
he
r e
du
cati
on
and
tra
inin
g
Go
od
s m
arke
te
ffic
ien
cy
Lab
or
mar
ket
eff
icie
ncy
Fin
anci
al m
arke
td
evel
op
me
nt
Tech
no
logi
cal
read
ines
s
Mar
ket
size
Bu
sin
ess
sop
his
tica
tio
n
Inn
ova
tio
n
Glo
bal
Co
mp
eti
tive
ne
ss In
dex
Sco
re 2007 2015
Note: Chile’s rank in 2007 is 26 out of 131 and in 2015 is 35 out of 140.Source: World Economic Forum, 2015-2016 Global Competitiveness Report, http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2015-2016/
30
Reflecciones para debate
1. Fortaleza de gobernabilidad de un pais: No es la ausenciade corrupcion o escandalos, si no la capacidad de reaccionar y reformarse cuando crisis
2. Reformas politicas son fundamentals (incentivos
3. Reformas y rol del Estado de Derecho es critica
4. Transparencia y Rendicion de Cuentas – involucracion y presion ciudadana
5. Rol del sector privado: pendiente
6. Reformas anti-corrupcion al nivel municipal
7. Incentivos: importancia de integrar costos/beneficios
8. Interaccion entre los pilares claves de plan reforma
9. El entorno internacional: los mercados, OCDE, las multinacionales, iniciativas como OGP (IGA), EITI
10. De la crisis a la Oportunidad: “El Momento es Hoy”...