análisis de actualidad natalidad

4
dkäcnsns hg ditudcnhdh? tdsd hg kdtdcnhdh gk ifncg  4 tdsd hg KDXDCNHDH gk ifncg µRer quî sg prehuig cd `dod kdtdcnhdh5 Iudkhe sg fd`cd hg gstg jgkùagke sg fd pugste ieae ukd hg sus prnkinpdcgs idusds cd nkierperdinùk hg cd auogr dc trd`doe. Yglÿk Icduhnd Xdruh, hnrgiterd hgc Nkstntute hg Ingkinds hg cd Jdancnd WDkhgs, gxnstgk vdrndhds idusds tdkte iucturdcgs ieae vdcùrnids, qug hg`gk sgr `ngk nhgktnjnidhds pdrd qug dsá cds pecátnids pÿ`cnids y hgaäs prepugstds dpuk- tgk `ngk dc pre`cgad y celrgk secuinekdrce. Cd nkierperdinùk hg cd auogr dc trd`doe icdrdagktg gs ukd idusd napertdktg, pgre gs sùce ukd idusd aäs. Fdy etrds qug pughgk sgr nkicuse aäs rgcgvdktgs, qug pdsdk per tgads vdcùrnies, hg gxpgitdtnvds, hg pdtrekgs iucturd- cgs, hgktre hg cds iudcgs hgstdidk? Dkäcnsns hg ditudcnhdh? Irgingktg nkhnvnhudcnsae y fgheknsae hg cd seinghdh. Nkgstd`ncnhdh hg ces ieapreanses? duagkte hg cd iekvnvgkind y hg cds hnsecuinekgs adtrnaekndcgs. Adyer idktnhdh hg tngape qug fea`rgs y auogrgs hghnidk d ces gstuhnes. Gste rgtrdsd cd ghdh pdrd tgkgr fnoes y per ce tdkte, rghuig su idktnhdh. Nkierperdinùk hg cd auogr dc trd`doe. @dod hg cd rgcnlnesnhdh? Gs uk fgife qug cd lgktg rgcnlnesd tngkg aäs fnoes. Gs uk fgife qug fd hnsankunhe ieksnhgrd`cgagktg cd idktnhdh hg knôes kdinhes gk gc aukhe. D aehe hg gogapce, gk cd hîidhd hg 4>:2 gk Ifncg fd`ád dprexn- adhdagktg 7 fnoes per auogr , pgre pdrd cd hîidhd hg 4>>2 gc preaghne `doù d 0,:. ^ su hgsigkse iektn- kÿd, fey cd tdsd hg kdtdcnhdh gk Ifncg gs hg 4,87 fnoes per auogr gk ghdh jîrtnc, auy per hg`doe hg cd tdsd kgigsdrnd hg rgpesninùk (0,4). µRgre quî snlknjnid gstd `dod5 µIuäcgs sek sus idusds y ces gjgites qug sg pughgk prehuinr gk kugstrd seinghdh5 Gk Ifncg cd pdrtninpdinùk giekùanid hg cd auogr su`nù hg 98,7>% (0220) d 80,9>% (024 0).

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Baja tasa de natalidad en Chile

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Page 1: Análisis de Actualidad Natalidad

7/14/2019 Análisis de Actualidad Natalidad

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jhêacscs bo jktujacbjb> tjsj bo hjtjacbjb oh kmcao • :

tjsj boHJRJACBJB

oh kmcao

¶Tfr quã so prfbuko aj `jnj hjtjacbjb6

Kujhbf so mj`aj bo osto eohûiohf so mj puostf kfif

uhj bo sus prchkcpjaos kjusjs aj chkfrpfrjkcûh bo aj iunor

ja trj`jnf( [olþh Kajubcj Rjrub! bcroktfrj boa Chstctutf bo

Kcohkcjs bo aj Ejicacj _Jhbos! oxcstoh vjrcjbjs kjusjs tjhtf

kuaturjaos kfif vjaûrckjs! quo bo`oh sor ̀ coh cbohtceckjbjs

pjrj quo jsé ajs pfaétckjs pþ`ackjs y boiês prfpuostjs jpuh)

toh ̀ coh ja prf`aoij y aflroh sfaukcfhjraf(Aj chkfrpfrjkcûh bo aj iunor ja trj`jnf kajrjiohto os

uhj kjusj cipfrtjhto! porf os sûaf uhj kjusj iês( Mjy

ftrjs quo puoboh sor chkausf iês roaovjhtos! quo pjsjh

pfr toijs vjaûrckfs! bo oxpoktjtcvjs! bo pjtrfhos kuaturj)

aos! bohtrf bo ajs kujaos bostjkjh>

Jhêacscs bojktujacbjb>

Krokcohto chbcvcbujacsif y mobfhcsif

bo aj sfkcobjb(

Chostj`cacbjb bo afs kfiprficsfs> juiohtf

bo aj kfhvcvohkcj y bo ajs bcsfaukcfhos

ijtrcifhcjaos(

Ijyfr kjhtcbjb bo tcoipf quo mfi`ros y

iunoros bobckjh j afs ostubcfs( Ostf rotrjsjaj objb pjrj tohor mcnfs y pfr af tjhtf!

robuko su kjhtcbjb(

Chkfrpfrjkcûh bo aj iunor ja trj`jnf(

@jnj bo aj roaclcfscbjb> Os uh mokmf quo aj

lohto roaclcfsj tcoho iês mcnfs(

Os uh mokmf quo mj bcsichucbf kfhscborj`aoiohto aj

kjhtcbjb bo hcúfs hjkcbfs oh oa iuhbf( J ifbf boonoipaf! oh aj bãkjbj bo :354 oh Kmcao mj`éj jprfxc)

ijbjiohto ? mcnfs pfr iunor ! porf pjrj aj bãkjbj

bo :334 oa prfiobcf `jnû j 0!5( S su boskohsf kfhtc)

hþj! mfy aj tjsj bo hjtjacbjb oh Kmcao os bo :!2? mcnfs

pfr iunor oh objb eãrtca! iuy pfr bo`jnf bo aj tjsj

hokosjrcj bo ropfsckcûh -0!:#( ¶Torf quã sclhceckj

ostj `jnj6 ¶Kuêaos sfh sus kjusjs y afs oeoktfs quo

so puoboh prfbukcr oh huostrj sfkcobjb6Oh Kmcao aj pjrtckcpjkcûh okfhûickj bo aj iunor

su`cû bo ;2!?3/ -0440# j 20!;3/ -04:0#(

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jhêacscs bo jktujacbjb> tjsj bo hjtjacbjb oh kmcao • 0

Ohvonokcicohtf bo aj pf`ajkcûh>Trchkcpja oeoktf

Kfipjrjbf kfh oa júf 0440! mfy oh Kmcao mjy kjsc ;44

ica hcúfs iohfs oh oa rjhlf bo 4 y :2 júfs bo objb( J aj

chvorsj! oh afs þatcifs :4 júfs juiohtû oh iês bo ?44 ica

oa hþiorf bo jbuatfs ijyfros bo 5? júfs( Bo ãstfs! 054

ica tcohoh iês bo =4 júfs(

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jhêacscs bo jktujacbjb> tjsj bo hjtjacbjb oh kmcao • ;

Tjésos vokchfs pfr tjsj bo hjtjacbjb

jrlohtchj> 0!2 mcnfs

24 icaafhos bo mj`ctjhtos ja 04:;

Tf`ajkcûh prfyoktjbj ja 04?4> ?<!5 icaafhos

porþ> 0!? mcnfs

03 icaafhos bo mj`ctjhtos ja 04:;

Tf`ajkcûh prfyoktjbj ja 04?4> ;3 icaafhos

`facvcj> ;!; mcnfs

:4 icaafhos bo mj`ctjhtos ja 04:;

Tf`ajkcûh prfyoktjbj ja 04?4> :< icaafhos

kmcao> :!2? mcnfs

:< icaafhos bo mj`ctjhtos ja 04:;

Tf`ajkcûh prfyoktjbj ja 04?4> 04 icaafhos

Oh 24 júfs Kmcao krokorê sûaf ; icaafhos bo mj`ctjhtos7

 Jrlohtchj :<!5 icaafhos 7 Torþ :4 icaafhos y @facvcj <

icaafhos( [fifs! kfhnuhtjiohto kfh @rjsca y Kfstj Pckj!

oa pjés kfh aj eortcacbjb iês `jnj bo tfbj Ajtchfjiãrckj(

@fhf pfr torkor mcnf

Euo jhuhkcjbf pfr oa Troscbohto oh oa bcskursf boa 0: bo

ijyf( Os uh quo `fhf so ao ohtroljrê j kjbj iunor quo

tohlj su torkor mcnf( [o supfho quo ohtrjrê oh vclohkcj oa :

bo ohorf boa 04:2( [o ftfrljrêh ":44 ica pfr oa torkor mcnf!

 y pjrj oa kujrtf mcnf oh jboajhto aj suij so chkroiohtjrê oh

"?4 ica posfs pfr kjbj prûxcif hjkcicohtf(

Burjhto su bcskursf oa proscbohto ohejtczû oh quo ja Lf)

`corhf ‑ao profkupj aj ̀ jnj tjsj bo hjtjacbjb quo jktujaioh)

to oxcsto oh Kmcao’! jbukcohbf j quo oh uhfs júfs iês ostfso puobo trjbukcr oh ‑uhj bcsichukcûh bo aj pf`ajkcûh’(

Jboiês ‑uhj bo kjbj kchkf pjronjs oherohtj prf`aoijs

jsfkcjbfs j aj eortcacbjb’! pfr af quo so bupackjrêh oa hþio)

rf bo trjtjicohtfs quo prostj aj rob pþ`ackj bo sjaub y ajs

chstctukcfhos kfh kfhvohcfs jsfkcjbfs(

 [ûaf uh prcior pjsf> Aj su`sokrotjrcj bo Bosjrrf)

aaf [fkcja! [faobjb Jroaajhf! oskrc`cû uhj kjrtj j

aj rovcstj Rmo Okfhficst oh rospuostj j huiorfsjs

krétckjs quo tcabj`jh oa `fhf kfif uh sf`frhf(

Oxpackû quo kfif oh iukmfs bo afs pjésos ourf)

pofs quo so oherohtjh j uh bosjeéf boiflrêeckf

scicajr! osto `fhf chtohtj sor sûaf uh prcior pjsf

quo kfipaoiohtjrê ftrjs chckcjtcvjs quo vohbrêh!

tjaos kfif>

:( Ionfr jkkosf j afs trjtjicohtfs bo eortcacbjb(

0( Toricsf pjrohtja bo socs iosos(

;( Ijyfr jkkosf j aj lujrboréj(

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jhêacscs bo jktujacbjb> tjsj bo hjtjacbjb oh kmcao • 2

Oxportfs rospfhboh>

¶Kuêa os aj prchkcpja kjusj bo aj kjébj bo aj eortcacbjb

oh oa iuhbf6

[ch bubj! uhj rjzûh pftohto os! choquévfkjiohto! aj chkfr)

pfrjkcûh bo aj iunor ja iuhbf aj`frja( Aj pfstorljkcûh bo

aj ijtorhcbjb y aj robukkcûh boa hþiorf bo mcnfs os uhj

kfhsokuohkcj bcroktj bo oaaf( Oh Kmcao juiohtû bo ;2!?3/

oh 0440! j 20!;3/ oh 04:0( Osf os cipfrtjhto y jþh mjy

ijrloh pjrj krokor iês( [ch oi`jrlf! oa iêxcif bosjeéf

quo oherohtjh afs pjésos os lohorjr uhj ostrukturj aj`frja

okfhûickj y nurébckj kfhkfrbjhto y oh prfeuhbj schtfhéj

kfh aj bclhcbjb y aj hjturjaozj bo aj iunor7 uhj ostrukturj

aj`frja quo rospoto! jkfnj! vjafro y kfhstruyj sf`ro af ospo)

kéeckf bo ‑af eoiohchf’! quo sjavjlujrbo su rfa chsustctuc`ao

bo aj ijtorhcbjb( -Rji`cãh oh jrtékuaf pu`ackjbf oh Aj Rorkorj! 0:(2(04:;#

¶Zuã tcpf bo pfaétckjs pþ`ackjs f chkohtcvfs bo`corjhcipaoiohtjrso pjrj trjtjr bo rovortcr ostf6

Oa toij bo ajs pfaétckjs pþ`ackjs os iês kfipaonf! yj quo

aj ijyfréj bo oaajs hf mj bjbf afs rosuatjbfs osporjbfs( Aj

quo sé so puobo bostjkjr os aj boa jktuja pro y pfshjtja quo

so chstjurû mjko pfkf( Os ̀ uohj! porf os iuy toiprjhf pjrj

sj`or sc so trjbukcrê oh juiohtf oeoktcvf bo aj hjtjacbjb(

rckjrbf rcoskf

Poktfr _hcvorscbjb [jh

[o`jstcêh( Loûlrjef! _hcvorscbjb

bo Kmcao( Bfktfr oh Loflrjeéjpfr aj _hcvorscbjb bo @fhh!

Jaoijhcj(

kajubcj tjrub

Bcroktfrj boa Chstctutf

bo Kcohkcjs bo aj Ejicacj!

_hcvorscbjb bo Afs Jhbos(J`fljbf! Tfhtceckcj

_hcvorscbjb Kjtûackj bo Kmcao(

Tfstétuaf oh Kcohkcjs bo aj

Ejicacj! kfh ospokcjaczjkcûh oh

iobcjkcûh ejicacjr(

¶Kuêaos puoboh sor afs oeoktfs iês lrjvos pjrj uhj

sfkcobjb kfh `jnj hjtjacbjb6

@jnj bo aj euorzj aj`frja oh oa euturf prûxcif! quo bo`o)

rê prfbukcr iês pjrj ijhtohor uhj ijsj ijyfr bo por)

sfhjs chjktcvjs( Os uh prf`aoij boiflrêeckf lrjvo! oh

kujhtf bo jqué j pfkfs júfs iês! ostjroifs vcvcohbf oh

eohûiohf ‑2)0):’( [clhceckj! quo uh nfvoh bo`orê ijh)

tohor j 0 pjbros y 2 j`uoafs(

Ijyfr kjrlj ja Ostjbf pjrj oa sfstohcicohtf boa jbuatf ijyfr(

Trf`aoijs oh kcortjs chbustrcjs quo sfh ospokcjaiohto

sohsc`aos j aj hjtjacbjb(

Iohfs porsfhjs sclhceckj iohfs koro`rfs quo pcohsjh!

krojh y prfbukoh(

Jusohkcj bo ejicacj oxtohbcbj! auolf! iohfr rob bo jpf)

 yf oh tãrichfs okfhûickfs! porf tji`cãh jpfyf psckf)

aûlckfs! ospcrctujaos! sfkcjaos! otk( Iohfr pfsc`cacbjb bo efrijr mj`cacbjbos ̀ ajhbjs! quo so

obukjh prchkcpjaiohto ja chtorcfr bo aj ejicacj

¶Kuêaos sfh afs bosjeéfs quo so prosohtjh pjrj aj sfkcobjb6

Oa bosjeéf ostê oh mjkor bo Kmcao uh pjés sustohtj`ao( Tjrj

oaaf os hokosjrcf lohorjr pfaétckjs pþ`ackjs quo efrtjaozkjh

aj ejicacj! kfif su`scbcfs mj`ctjkcfhjaos! scstoij cipfsctc)

vf y eaoxc`cacbjb aj`frja! ohtro ftrjs( Kfh sustohtj`cacbjb io

roecorf j quo bo`oifs prfyoktjr j huostrf pjés ja euturf(

Hf `jstj oa ãxctf okfhûickf jktuja! schf vor quo osto ãxctfpuobj ijhtohorso j trjvãs bo afs júfs(

[c hf rovortcifs aj `jnj hjtjacbjb! os prf`j`ao quo oa ãxctf

hf porburo( Tfr ftrf ajbf! hf sûaf mj`ajifs bo rosuatjbfs

okfhûickfs! schf bo roajkcfhos chtorporsfhjaos( [ch porsf)

hjs! sch ejicacj ¶j qucãh morobjroifs huostrfs ãxctfs6