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-Explanation of Modified Project Components, Schedule, and Implementation Approach-
Ryoji Takahashi
Team Leader/Disaster Management Administration 1
JICA Project Team
The Project for Assessment of
Earthquake Disaster Risk
for the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal
1
Contents 1. Background and Necessity of the Project
2. Comparison between the 2015 Gorkha
Earthquake and the Risk Assessment Result
by JICA in 2002
3. Adaptation of Sendai Framework for DRR
4. Modified Project Components, Schedule,
and Implementation Policy
5. Project Organization and Involvement
6. Outcomes of the Project
2
1. Background and Necessity of the Project
3
1. Background
1934 Bihar-Earthquake
2002 JICA: The Study on Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley kingdom
of Nepal
Increasing Risk
Lack of budget for actual implementation and Inter-
organizational collaboration
Result is not integrated, and not
utilized for DRR
Possibility of Massive Earthquake
Urban Sprawl, Urbanization
Issue
13 years has passed
Study from other Donors such as Disaster
Hazard Analysis
Other
Reasons
4
1. Background
2015 4.25 Gorkha Earthquake
Gorkha EQ
5
1. Background
The Team was dispatched from 6 May and surveyed in KV and Shindupalchok, and had series of discussions with stakeholders to find out needs and idea for modification of the Project.
9
1. Necessity of the Project
Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment contributing DRR with Newly Determined Scenarios
Practical BBB Reconstruction Plan and Regional Disaster Management Plan based on Assessment
Implementation of Action Plans
Capacity Development
Contribute to Build Back Better Recovery and Reconstruction, and decrease the damage from the Future Earthquake by
building Resilient KV 10
11
Project for Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk for KV • BBB Recovery and Reconstruction Plan for Pilot 3
Municipalities • Seismic Hazard Analysis for KV • Seismic Risk Assessment for KV
Urgent Development Study • Reconstruction Master Plan in Gorka and
Shindhupalchok • Comprehensive City Resilience Reconstruction
Master Plan (Mainly Focus on Urban area)
Coordination with other JICA’s Projects
Project Improvement of Urban Transport for KV • Transport MP in KV
Supplying the results of Risk Assessment
Coordinating in terms of Land Use Plan
2. Comparison between the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake and the Risk Assessment Result by JICA in 2002
By Mr. Fumio Kaneko
12
Risk Assessment by JICA during 2001-2002
• Name of the Project was “The Study on
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the
Kathmandu Valley” o Based on data, information, methods and knowledge at the time
of 2001-2002 <now methods to be version up>
o Population around1.4 million, & households around 260 thousand.
<now 2.5 million, 660 thousand: twice>
o For example, drilling data were 350 plus 5 new PS logging <now to
be increased>
• Contents of the Project were o Seismic Hazard Assessment
o Seismic Risk (Damage) Assessment
o Seismic Disaster Risk Management Planning for KV (Kathmandu
Valley)
13
14
Comparison with the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake with the Scenario Earthquakes for “The Study on Earthquake
Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley”
KV local Eq. M5.7
North Bagmati Eq. M6.0
Mid Nepal Eq. M8.0
1934 Bihar Eq. M8.4
2005 Gorkha Eq. M7.8
KV
The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake is locating between central seismic gap and the 1934 Bihar Earthquake segments.
The main energy radiation was concentrated to the eastern portion of the fault.
Distribution of Seismic Intensity due to the Scenario Earthquakes
Mid Nepal earthquake
It is difficult to compare the results directly for the assessment and real damage, but is possible to examine the validity of the fragility curve. From this point of view, we found the Mid Nepal earthquake would cause a MMI VIII in the KV , which is more than VII of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. According to the analysis by Prof. Koketsu and Prof. Yagi, the main contribution of strong ground motion to the KV is north of KV and similar area of the North Bagmati case.
North Bagmati earthquake
KV local earthqauke 1934 Bihar earthquake 15
Comparison of the Damage Estimated in 2002 Project with the Damage of 2015 Gorkha
Earthquake
Heavily Partly Death Injury
50,984 40,166 1,713 9,024
8.3% 6.5% 0.1% 0.4%
53,465 74,941 17,695 146,874
20.9% 29.3% 1.3% 10.6%
17796 28345 2616 21913
6.9% 11.1% 0.2% 1.6%
46,596 68,882 14,333 119,066
18.2% 26.9% 1.0% 8.6%
58,701 77,773 19,523 162,041
22.9% 30.4% 1.4% 11.7%
Assessment / Damage
(in percentage)0.84 1.69 2.77 4.40
Casualty No. of
BuildingsPopulation
Damage of 2015 Gorkha Earthquake
Scenario earthquakes and damage assessment of 2002 project
2015 Gorkha (Ms7.8)
Earthquakes
Comparison of the 2015 damage with North Bagmati scenario
Mid Nepal (M8.0)
North Bagmati (M6.0)
KV Local (M5.7)
1934 Bihar (M8.4)
Current
614,777 2,517,023
At the time of 2002
256,203 1,387,826
Damage to Buildings
16
Deaths and Deaths Rate
More than 1%: Sindhupalchok, Rasuwa More than 0.1%: Gorkha, Nuwakot, Dhading, Bhaktapur (Kathmandu: 0.07%)
Kathmandu
17
Source Model of 2015 Gorkha
Earthquake
Precise source model by Prof. Yagi (Tsukuba Univ.) 1) Slip distribution: Slip distribution by source inversion analysis is shown by contour map. Main slip distributes near Kathmandu Valley. Slip is comparatively small near epicenter.
2) High frequency radiation area: High frequency (1Hz) radiation area by hybrid back-projection analysis is read from Yagi’s analysis and shown by pink colored square region above. The area is north of Kathmandu Valley and near North Bagmati scenario earthquake model.
18 18
Source Modelling of 2015 Gorkha Earthquake
1) M7.8 earthquake model:
Magnitude is 7.8 in total and rupture area by Prof. Yagi’s analysis is modelled.
2) High Frequency Radiation Area model:
The slip distribution based on the world wide record is shown by many researchers. Prof. Yagi studied the high frequency (1Hz) radiation area.
As the period range that affects to the building damage in Nepal is shorter period around 1 sec, the source model is set based on the shorter period radiation area by Prof. Yagi.
The estimated magnitude is 6, around 2 smaller than total magnitude, considering the similarity of the North Bagmati Earthquake.
19 19
Recalculation of the Damage Using the Parameter of 2015 Gorkha Earthquake
Most area are MMI X Death toll about 110,000 (2015 earthquake 1,713)
House damage around 240,000 (2015 earthquake 50,984)
Calculation of the damage by M7.8
According to the attenuation equation, the M7.8 earthquake, located under the KV, will result in a intensity of X for most of the area, which leads to a much more damage estimation comparing with the real damage.
20
Recalculation of the Damage Using the Adjusted Parameter for 2015 Gorkha Earthquake
Based on Dr. Yagi’s “shorter period component radiation region” locating at the north of KV as the source model, seismic motion and damage to buildings and casualties are estimated. Magnitude is estimated around 2 lower than the whole Magnitude, similarity with North Bagmati. The PGA recorded at KV (164 gal) and seimsic intensity VII are corresponding to the above recalculation model used here.
Most area are MMI VII Death toll about 2,100
(2015 earthquake 1,713) House damage around 38,000
(2015 earthquake 50,984)
If the Yagi’s model which is corresponding to the actual seismic intensity is used as the input for the damage assessment, rather than the whole magnitude based estimation, the estimated damage gets much closer to the real damage. This indicates the methodology used was acceptable.
21
Conclusions and Recommendations The ground motion of 2015 Gorkha earthquake is relatively small comparing with
the other events having the similar magnitude and has a extreme long dominant period around 4 seconds which could be derived from main slip portion or effect of deep basin sediment used be a lake. This should be made clear that this characteristics is only for this event or is common for the event around the area (for example, central seismic gap)
This longer period motion might effect chimneys/towers and higher rising buildings. On the other hand, the damage to many masonry and other buildings should be affected by shorter period ground motion derived from north of KV.
The methodology used in the 2002 project is basically appropriate. It can be modified with the damage of 2015 earthquake. It should be noted that the damage of the 2015 earthquake should not be the excessive emphasized without explicating the mechanism of the earthquake, otherwise it could lead to a underestimation in the future.
The un-reinforced masonry building should be banned for BBB recovery. The retrofitting and rebuilding of old masonry buildings should be promoted
through subsidy. It is recommended to put rebar inside the wall for RC frame structure and proper
construction manner to avoid the collapse of the wall both in out-plane and in-plane. A complete GIS database for buildings, including its structure type, height,
construction year, etc., is necessary for the future risk assessment and the promotion of the retrofitting and reconstruction of the old buildings.
Strengthening could be introduced for high-rise buildings and the public critical buildings. 22
3. Adaptation of Sendai Framework for DRR
23
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 -The Seven Global Targets -
3. Reduce direct disaster economic loss
in relation to global gross domestic
product (GDP) by 2030
1.2. Substantially reduce global disaster
mortality and number of affected people
by 2030, aiming to lower average per
100,000 global mortality between 2020-
2030 compared to 2005-2015.
The Seven Global Targets in Sendai
Framework for DRR
4. Substantially reduce disaster
damage to critical infrastructure and
disruption of basic services, among
them health and educational facilities,
including through developing their
resilience by 2030.
Set the Target Value in Regional
Disaster Management Plan based on
the Result of Earthquake Risk
Assessment (Economic and Social
Damage assessment)
Set the Seismic resilient
countermeasure in Regional Disaster
Management Plan based on the Result
of Earthquake Risk Assessment
(Hospital, School, Infrastructure,
Lifeline)
Contribution by this Project
24
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 -The Seven Global Targets – (continued)
5. Substantially increase the number of
countries with national and local
disaster risk reduction strategies by
2020.
6. Substantially enhance international
cooperation to developing countries
through adequate and sustainable
support to complement their national
actions for implementation of this
framework by 2030.
7. Substantially increase the availability
of and access to multi-hazard early
warning systems and disaster risk
information and assessments to the
people by 2030.
Publicize and share result of
earthquake risk assessment. Indicate
in Regional disaster management
plan.
Contribute by Implementation of the
project
The Seven Global Targets in Sendai
Framework for DRR Contribution by this Project
25
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 - Priority for Action -
1) Understanding disaster risk Development of Database and Hazard
analysis and Risk Assessment with
Scientific Basis
Priority action in Sendai Framework for DRR Contribution by this Project
2) Strengthening disaster risk
governance to manage disaster risk
3) Investing in disaster risk reduction
for resilience
4) Enhancing disaster preparedness
for effective response, and to “Build
Back Better” in recovery,
rehabilitation and reconstruction
Consensus building with WG,
Capacity development for Governance
Promoting public and private investment to
both structural and un-structural measures
by formulating Regional disaster
management plan
Directly contribute by formulating BBB
Recovery and Reconstruction Plan
26
4. Modified Project Components, Schedule, and Implementation Approach
27
28
4. Modified Project Components
Output1: Earthquake hazard analysis based on scenario earthquakes and detail ground model for the Kathmandu Valley. Output2: Earthquake risk assessment based on the result of Output 1. Several cases of the earthquake occurrence in different time will be considered in the assessment. Output3: Enhanced Governance for updating risk assessment result corresponding to the change of social situation. Output4: The model of activity utilizing the result of risk assessment by local governments.
Original Components
Hazard Analysis
Risk Assessment
Capacity to Update RA
Formulate RDMP
Output1: Earthquake hazard analysis based on scenario earthquakes and detail ground model for the Kathmandu Valley. Output2: Earthquake risk assessment based on the result of Output 1. Several cases of the earthquake occurrence in different time will be considered in the assessment. Output3: Enhanced Governance for updating risk assessment result corresponding to the change of social situation. Output4: The model of activity utilizing the result of risk assessment by local governments. Output5: Integrated recovery and reconstruction plan based on the concept of BBB for pilot municipalizes.
Modified Components
Hazard Analysis
Risk Assessment
Capacity to Update RA
Formulate RDMP and SOP
Formulate Reconstruction Plan
Same
Same
Same
Added
Added
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Monitoring and Evaluation
Urgent Activities
Seismic Risk Analysis DM Model Plan for Pilot Municipality
From BBB to Seismic Resilient City
Seismic hazard analysis
Capacity Development (through CP Trainings in Japan, Working Groups (WG1: Geological, Seismic Group, WG2: Risk Assessment Group, WG3: Policy and Institutional, WG4: Pilot activities))
Note: Timeframe showed in this diagram does not correspond exactly and
schedule must be decided to synchronize with needs of Nepalese side.
2015 EQ
Verification of 2002
Project
Emergency
Response Chronicle
Survey
Soil Investigation
Boring Investigation,
Micro Tremor Survey,
Geomorphic Map
Preparation
Built Back Better (BBB) Recovery and Reconstruction Master Plan
for Pilot Municipality
Building Damage
and Inventory
Survey for All
Buildings
Development of Building GIS Database
DM for Pilot
Municipality
Future Seismic Risk
Assessment with Scenarios
DM Plan Guideline
Investigation for
Road, Bridge,
Lifeline Damage
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Intensity Distribution
Landslide Risk Area Distribution
Liquefaction Potential Area Distribution
Standard Operation Procedures
(SOP) for Emergency Response
Microzonation
Soil Amplification Characteristics Map, (SATREPS)-Idea Only
Mechanism of Gorkha EQ 2015
Next Potential Earthquakes
2 or 3 Dimensional Seismic Motion
Response Analyses
Revision of Building Fragility Curve
Bridge Vulnerability Analysis
Lifeline Vulnerability Analysis
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
Original Components
and Schedule
(Draft) Modification of Components of the EQ Risk Assessment Project for Kathmandu Valley
Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analysis
29
30
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Draft Plan of Operation (PO): Major Activities
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Approval of inception report
Time Schedule
Activities
2015 2016 2017 2018
JCC
WG1 (Geological and seismic group)
WG2 (Risk assessment group)
WG3 (Pilot activities group)
Preparation of inception report
Seminar of related organizations on disaster risk management plan
(No. 3)
Seminar of related organizations on project contents (No. 1)
Urgent res i l ient and safe Kathmandu campaign
Emergency response chronicle survey
Recovery and reconstruction master plan for pi lot municipa l i ties
Veri fication of 2002 project results
Col lection and analys is of exis ting data
Bui lding damage and bui lding inventory survey
Seminar of related organizations on BBB M/P (No. 2)
Seismic hazard analys is
Seismic ri sk assessment
Tra ining in Japan focus on disaster management plan (No. 2)
Tra ining in Japan focus on community based DRR (No. 3)
Development of disaster management plan guidel ine for
municipa l i ty
Development of standard operation procedures (SOP) for emergency
response
Development of disaster management plan for pi lot municipa l i ty
Soi l survey and updating soi l model of 2002
Micro zonation
Capaci ty development
Tra ining in Japan focus on BBB (No. 1)
Data col lection for seismic ri sk assessment
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Monitoring and Evaluation
Urgent Activities
Seismic Risk Analysis DM Model Plan for Pilot Municipality
From BBB to Seismic Resilient City
Seismic hazard analysis
Capacity Development (through CP Trainings in Japan, Working Groups (WG1: Geological, Seismic Group, WG2: Risk Assessment Group, WG3: Policy and Institutional, WG4: Pilot activities))
Note: Timeframe showed in this diagram does not correspond exactly and
schedule must be decided to synchronize with needs of Nepalese side.
2015 EQ
Verification of 2002
Project
Emergency
Response Chronicle
Survey
Soil Investigation
Boring Investigation,
Micro Tremor Survey,
Geomorphic Map
Preparation
Built Back Better (BBB) Recovery and Reconstruction Master Plan
for Pilot Municipality
Building Damage
and Inventory
Survey for All
Buildings
Development of Building GIS Database
DM for Pilot
Municipality
Future Seismic Risk
Assessment with Scenarios
DM Plan Guideline
Investigation for
Road, Bridge,
Lifeline Damage
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Intensity Distribution
Landslide Risk Area Distribution
Liquefaction Potential Area Distribution
Standard Operation Procedures
(SOP) for Emergency Response
Microzonation
Soil Amplification Characteristics Map, (SATREPS)-Idea Only
Mechanism of Gorkha EQ 2015
Next Potential Earthquakes
2 or 3 Dimensional Seismic Motion
Response Analyses
Revision of Building Fragility Curve
Bridge Vulnerability Analysis
Lifeline Vulnerability Analysis
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
Original Components
and Schedule
(Draft) Modification of Components of the EQ Risk Assessment Project for Kathmandu Valley
Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analysis
Urgent Activities
31
Urgent Activities
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign (July-August 2015) 1.
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
32
33
Urgent Activities
Emergency Response Chronicle Survey (August-October 2015) 2.
In order to grasp the gaps for Emergency Response Activities in all stakeholders, emergency response chronicle survey will be carried out
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Urgent Activities
Building Damage and Inventory Survey (June-December 2015) 3.
Building Damage and Inventory Survey will be conducted to 1) Revise Building Fragility Curve, 2) Develop Database of Buildings to be utilized for BBB Reconstruction Plan and Future Earthquake Risk Assessment.
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Explain Later 34
Urgent Activities
Soil Investigation (June-December 2015) 4.
In order to grasp more detail soil condition to be utilized for risk sensitive land use, utilization of existing geotechnical information and soil investigation will be conducted.
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
35
Monitoring and Evaluation
Urgent Activities
Seismic Risk Analysis DM Model Plan for Pilot Municipality
From BBB to Seismic Resilient City
Seismic hazard analysis
Capacity Development (through CP Trainings in Japan, Working Groups (WG1: Geological, Seismic Group, WG2: Risk Assessment Group, WG3: Policy and Institutional, WG4: Pilot activities))
Note: Timeframe showed in this diagram does not correspond exactly and
schedule must be decided to synchronize with needs of Nepalese side.
2015 EQ
Verification of 2002
Project
Emergency
Response Chronicle
Survey
Soil Investigation
Boring Investigation,
Micro Tremor Survey,
Geomorphic Map
Preparation
Built Back Better (BBB) Recovery and Reconstruction Master Plan
for Pilot Municipality
Building Damage
and Inventory
Survey for All
Buildings
Development of Building GIS Database
DM for Pilot
Municipality
Future Seismic Risk
Assessment with Scenarios
DM Plan Guideline
Investigation for
Road, Bridge,
Lifeline Damage
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Intensity Distribution
Landslide Risk Area Distribution
Liquefaction Potential Area Distribution
Standard Operation Procedures
(SOP) for Emergency Response
Microzonation
Soil Amplification Characteristics Map, (SATREPS)-Idea Only
Mechanism of Gorkha EQ 2015
Next Potential Earthquakes
2 or 3 Dimensional Seismic Motion
Response Analyses
Revision of Building Fragility Curve
Bridge Vulnerability Analysis
Lifeline Vulnerability Analysis
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
Original Components
and Schedule
(Draft) Modification of Components of the EQ Risk Assessment Project for Kathmandu Valley
Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analysis
BBB Reconstruction Plan
4Modified Project Components and Schedule
36
37
BBB Reconstruction Plan
BBB Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Master Plan (June-April 2016) 5.
BBB Recovery and Reconstruction Plan will be formulated for 3 Pilot Municipalities 1. Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City 2. Bhaktapur Municipality 3. Gokarneshwor Municipality
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Explain Later
Basic Policy
Action ContentsResponsible Org
Costestimation
Implementation Schedule
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
XXX A
B
C
Life Economy
Safety Description and Image
Action Plan
Formulation of Basic Policy
Formulation of Vision
Formulation of Action plan Explain Later
Monitoring and Evaluation
Urgent Activities
Seismic Risk Analysis DM Model Plan for Pilot Municipality
From BBB to Seismic Resilient City
Seismic hazard analysis
Capacity Development (through CP Trainings in Japan, Working Groups (WG1: Geological, Seismic Group, WG2: Risk Assessment Group, WG3: Policy and Institutional, WG4: Pilot activities))
Note: Timeframe showed in this diagram does not correspond exactly and
schedule must be decided to synchronize with needs of Nepalese side.
2015 EQ
Verification of 2002
Project
Emergency
Response Chronicle
Survey
Soil Investigation
Boring Investigation,
Micro Tremor Survey,
Geomorphic Map
Preparation
Built Back Better (BBB) Recovery and Reconstruction Master Plan
for Pilot Municipality
Building Damage
and Inventory
Survey for All
Buildings
Development of Building GIS Database
DM for Pilot
Municipality
Future Seismic Risk
Assessment with Scenarios
DM Plan Guideline
Investigation for
Road, Bridge,
Lifeline Damage
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Intensity Distribution
Landslide Risk Area Distribution
Liquefaction Potential Area Distribution
Standard Operation Procedures
(SOP) for Emergency Response
Microzonation
Soil Amplification Characteristics Map, (SATREPS)-Idea Only
Mechanism of Gorkha EQ 2015
Next Potential Earthquakes
2 or 3 Dimensional Seismic Motion
Response Analyses
Revision of Building Fragility Curve
Bridge Vulnerability Analysis
Lifeline Vulnerability Analysis
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
Original Components
and Schedule
(Draft) Modification of Components of the EQ Risk Assessment Project for Kathmandu Valley
Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analysis
Seismic Hazard Analysis
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
38
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Seismic Hazard Analysis (June-June 2016) 6.
1. Determination of Scenario Earthquake (in cooperation with SATREPS Project): August 2015 2. Preliminary Hazard Analysis: August 2015 and January 2016 3. Hazard Analysis (Intensity, Liquefaction, and Landslide): June 2016
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
39
Monitoring and Evaluation
Urgent Activities
Seismic Risk Analysis DM Model Plan for Pilot Municipality
From BBB to Seismic Resilient City
Seismic hazard analysis
Capacity Development (through CP Trainings in Japan, Working Groups (WG1: Geological, Seismic Group, WG2: Risk Assessment Group, WG3: Policy and Institutional, WG4: Pilot activities))
Note: Timeframe showed in this diagram does not correspond exactly and
schedule must be decided to synchronize with needs of Nepalese side.
2015 EQ
Verification of 2002
Project
Emergency
Response Chronicle
Survey
Soil Investigation
Boring Investigation,
Micro Tremor Survey,
Geomorphic Map
Preparation
Built Back Better (BBB) Recovery and Reconstruction Master Plan
for Pilot Municipality
Building Damage
and Inventory
Survey for All
Buildings
Development of Building GIS Database
DM for Pilot
Municipality
Future Seismic Risk
Assessment with Scenarios
DM Plan Guideline
Investigation for
Road, Bridge,
Lifeline Damage
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Intensity Distribution
Landslide Risk Area Distribution
Liquefaction Potential Area Distribution
Standard Operation Procedures
(SOP) for Emergency Response
Microzonation
Soil Amplification Characteristics Map, (SATREPS)-Idea Only
Mechanism of Gorkha EQ 2015
Next Potential Earthquakes
2 or 3 Dimensional Seismic Motion
Response Analyses
Revision of Building Fragility Curve
Bridge Vulnerability Analysis
Lifeline Vulnerability Analysis
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
Original Components
and Schedule
(Draft) Modification of Components of the EQ Risk Assessment Project for Kathmandu Valley
Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analysis
Future Seismic Risk Assessment
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
40
41
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Future Seismic Risk Assessment (January 2016-Feb 2017) 7.
Seismic Risk will be reassessed by utilizing Newly determined Scenario Earthquakes • Human Casualties • Building Damage • Lifeline and Infrastructure Damage • Economic Impact, etc
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Explain Later
Monitoring and Evaluation
Urgent Activities
Seismic Risk Analysis DM Model Plan for Pilot Municipality
From BBB to Seismic Resilient City
Seismic hazard analysis
Capacity Development (through CP Trainings in Japan, Working Groups (WG1: Geological, Seismic Group, WG2: Risk Assessment Group, WG3: Policy and Institutional, WG4: Pilot activities))
Note: Timeframe showed in this diagram does not correspond exactly and
schedule must be decided to synchronize with needs of Nepalese side.
2015 EQ
Verification of 2002
Project
Emergency
Response Chronicle
Survey
Soil Investigation
Boring Investigation,
Micro Tremor Survey,
Geomorphic Map
Preparation
Built Back Better (BBB) Recovery and Reconstruction Master Plan
for Pilot Municipality
Building Damage
and Inventory
Survey for All
Buildings
Development of Building GIS Database
DM for Pilot
Municipality
Future Seismic Risk
Assessment with Scenarios
DM Plan Guideline
Investigation for
Road, Bridge,
Lifeline Damage
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Intensity Distribution
Landslide Risk Area Distribution
Liquefaction Potential Area Distribution
Standard Operation Procedures
(SOP) for Emergency Response
Microzonation
Soil Amplification Characteristics Map, (SATREPS)-Idea Only
Mechanism of Gorkha EQ 2015
Next Potential Earthquakes
2 or 3 Dimensional Seismic Motion
Response Analyses
Revision of Building Fragility Curve
Bridge Vulnerability Analysis
Lifeline Vulnerability Analysis
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
Original Components
and Schedule
(Draft) Modification of Components of the EQ Risk Assessment Project for Kathmandu Valley
Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analysis
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
42
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
(June-June 2016)
8.
Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) for pilot Municipalities will be formulated
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Earthquake occurrence
Dis
aste
rD
amag
e si
tuat
ion
Res
iden
ts a
ctio
n
Disaster expans ion period Emergency Response Emergency Recovery Rehabi l i tation and Reconstruction
●EQ occurred in the citywide(Seismic intensity 6 lower )
a few min. later 1 hour later 6 hours later 12 hours later 1 day later 2, 3 days later 1 week later 2 weeks later 1 month later
●Landslide occurs in landslides dangerous place .)
●Bui lding damage by aftershock
Aftershocks occur continuously
●Bui lding damage by EQ and Landslide( completely destroyed 528 buildings )
●16 Death and 1,076 people injured by.
and by buried under houses and landslides
●Closesd in elevator (63 units)
●Medical facilities damage
●Need to evacuation of hospitalized patients
●15 Fi re
●Fire spread
●11,500 Bui ldings have burned.
●55 people were killed , 493 injured occurs by buiding burned
●Power facility : power failure in the area of about 9.5%
●Communication facility : Interruption in the area of about 8.9%
●Water supply facility : Cutoff in the area of about 22%
●Sewerage facility : Damaged in the sewer pipe of about 30.2%
●Gas facility : No damage
●Debris of about 300,000 tons by the building damage)
●Evacuees that can not be living in the home by burned down, total
col lapse and partial collapse (50,000 people)
●Pharmaceuticals in
hospital begins to lack ●Patients will not receive a
treatment occurs
●EQ occurred
●Recognize EQ
●Casualties occurred (Death and injured)
●Many res idents are self-escape
difficult due to collapsed builldings
●Many res idents are self-escape difficult due to closed elevator
●Li feline damage
●Many res idents are self-escape difficult due to Fire
●Many injuries rushed to
medical institutions
●Patients who do not receive the treatment
begins to request the start of a temporaryl clinic
●take the time to response by fi re brigade or supplier
●Evacuees feel anxious about aftershocks
●By interruption of distribution , Foods disappears from the convenience store and retail s tore .
●Food and daily necessities can be bought gradually
●looking for opening financial institution bydamage or closure of Bank
●Casualties occurred due to
fi re
●Medical institution closed begins
to restart .
●Fire fighting and Rescue ●Ask for help to the fire department or fire brigade .
●Impossible to obtain accurate information by damaged of the communications
faci lities and power facilities
●Lack of evacuation
information , medical
information
●Lack of Living information (Water, Food, Li feline)
●Use emergency light and s tockpile water due to water outage and power failure
●Request for the variety of information to ci ty office
●Provide damage information from ci tizens
●Request for Food and daily necessaries to ci ty office
EQ
Break down in detail
43
Monitoring and Evaluation
Urgent Activities
Seismic Risk Analysis DM Model Plan for Pilot Municipality
From BBB to Seismic Resilient City
Seismic hazard analysis
Capacity Development (through CP Trainings in Japan, Working Groups (WG1: Geological, Seismic Group, WG2: Risk Assessment Group, WG3: Policy and Institutional, WG4: Pilot activities))
Note: Timeframe showed in this diagram does not correspond exactly and
schedule must be decided to synchronize with needs of Nepalese side.
2015 EQ
Verification of 2002
Project
Emergency
Response Chronicle
Survey
Soil Investigation
Boring Investigation,
Micro Tremor Survey,
Geomorphic Map
Preparation
Built Back Better (BBB) Recovery and Reconstruction Master Plan
for Pilot Municipality
Building Damage
and Inventory
Survey for All
Buildings
Development of Building GIS Database
DM for Pilot
Municipality
Future Seismic Risk
Assessment with Scenarios
DM Plan Guideline
Investigation for
Road, Bridge,
Lifeline Damage
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Intensity Distribution
Landslide Risk Area Distribution
Liquefaction Potential Area Distribution
Standard Operation Procedures
(SOP) for Emergency Response
Microzonation
Soil Amplification Characteristics Map, (SATREPS)-Idea Only
Mechanism of Gorkha EQ 2015
Next Potential Earthquakes
2 or 3 Dimensional Seismic Motion
Response Analyses
Revision of Building Fragility Curve
Bridge Vulnerability Analysis
Lifeline Vulnerability Analysis
Urgent Resilient and Safe Kathmandu Campaign
On Site Socialization Campaign for Obtaining Proper Knowledge of Earthquake and Safety Buildings (For Citizens)
Original Components
and Schedule
(Draft) Modification of Components of the EQ Risk Assessment Project for Kathmandu Valley
Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaster Management Plan
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
44
45
Disaster Management Plan
Disaster Management Plan (June 2015 - June 2016) 9.
Disaster Management Plan for building Resilient Municipality will be formulated in 3 Pilot Municipality, and before the formulation guideline will be formulated.
4. Modified Project Components and Schedule
Kronolojik Olarak Gerçekleştirilen Yardım Faaliyetleri
Afet Yönetimi 1 Saat 24 Saat 72 Saat
○Komuta Merkezi Kurulması ○1'nci Komuta Merkez Toplantısı(Daha Sonraki Toplantılara Merkez Karar Verir)
○Sorumluların Toplanması
○Ordu'ya vb. İstek Yollanması○Diğer Eyaletlere İstek Yollanması
○Afet Yardım Yasasına Göre Hareketin Başlanılması
○Trafik Kontrolü(Polis Birimi) ○Zarar Dur. Analz. ○Yol Durum Analz. Top.(Daha Sonraki Toplantılara Merkez Karar Verir)
○Acil Durum Yol Temizleme İşlemleri
○Acil Durum Yol Kullanımının Kararı
○İtfaiye Faaliyetlerine Başlanılması
○İtfaiye'ye İstek Yollanması
○Tokyo DMAT Faaliyetleri ○Su ve Güvenlik Ekiplerinin İntikali
○Hastanelere vb. İstek Yollanması ○Yiyecek Denetleme Ekibinin İntikali
○Şehir Medikal Yardım Timinin Harekete Geçmesi
○Yaralıların Taşınması Konusunda İstek
○Geniş Çapta Medikal Malzeme Dağıtımı
○Toplanma Alanının Açılması ve İşletilmesi (Eyalet, Şehir, Kasaba, Köy)
○Yabancı Uyruklu Kişlilere Yönelik Bilgi Merkezi Açılması○Gönüllülerin Kabul Edilmesi (Eyalet, Şehir, Kasaba, Köy)
○Geniş Çapta Gönüllü Faaliyetleri ve Denetimi
○Tren İstasyonu vb. İçinde Bilgi Dağıtımı, Sığınanlara Yardım
○Afet Acil Durum Hattının Açılması ve İşletilmesi
○Eve Dönüş Yardım İstasyonlarının Kuruluşu
○Geçici Toplanma Alanlarının Belirlenmesi
○Acil Durum Kasalarının Zarar Durum Kontrolü ○Acil Durum Su Sutoğunun Aktivasyonu
○Ana Afet Yardım Malzeme Kasalarındaki Malların Sevki
○Diğer Bölgelerden Yardım Kabulu
○Büyük Çaplı Ulaştırma Merkezi Açılışı○Stockyard Kurulumu
○Eyaletlerden Mali Yardımın Kabulü.
Çöp ve Diğer Atıklar ○Atıkların Toplanması Yok Edilmesi
○Bedenlerin Bulunması
○Otopsi Takımının İntikali ○Geniş Çaplı Kremasyon İşlemi
○Otopsi İşlemleri(Polis、Doktorlar vb.)
Hayat Hattı (Elektrik, Su vb.) ○Acil Durum İyileştirme Çalışmaları
İtfaiye Faaliyetleri
Cesetlerle İlgilenilmesi
Yiyecek, İçecek vb. Gıda
Dışarı Çıkan Kişilerle İlgili İşlemler
Sığınan Kişilere Yönelik İş İşlem
ve Önlemler
Medikal Yardım vb.
İyileştirme Çalışmaları
Acil Durum Rotası
İlk Müdahale Düzeni
BaşlıklarKronolojik Olarak Müdahaleİlk Müdahalenin Oluşması
Contents should be included in this chapter
Source of Data →Hint
Example of Description →To be able to image
the actual contents
Role & Responsibility of Each department,
Agency
4. Implementation Approach
Technical Transfer by
1) Working Group
2) OJT
3) Counterpart Training in Japan
We emphasize importance in the process of implementation of the Project, by discuss and working together and expect your involvement to ensure sustainability of the Project
46
5. Project Organization and your Involvement -JICA Project Team Member
-JCC
-Working Group
47
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
Overall Organization of the Project
JCC Advice for the Project
Support Sharing information and data with NRRC, UNDP, etc. Deliberation of Scenario Earthquake, Result of Earthquake Hazard Analysis
and Risk Assessment, Regional Disaster Management Plan, etc.
WG 2 Risk
Assessment
WG 4 Pilot
Activities
WG 1 Geological,
Seismic
WG 3 Policy and
Institutional
48
49
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
JICA Project Team Member
Assignment Name
1. Team Leader / Disaster Management Administration
Ryoji TAKAHASHI
2. Deputy Team Leader / Disaster Management Administration/ Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment / DRR Planning
Kenpei KOJIKA
3. Seismic Hazard Assessment(Earthquake) Fumio KANEKO
4. Seismic Hazard Assessment(Ground modeling) Jun MATSUO
5. Soil Survey Toshio DOI
6. Seismic Hazard Assessment(Ground motion)
Koichi HASEGAWA
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
50
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
JICA Project Team Member
Assignment Name
7. Regional Disaster Management Planning Katsu KATO
8. Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment (Building) Akira INOUE
9. Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment (Infrastructure) Akio HAYASHI
10. Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment (Economic and Social Analysis)
Hiroshi IMAIZUMI
11. Community/Social Analysis Keisuke HATTORI
12. Community Based Disaster Risk Management Miki KODAMA
7. 8.
9. 10.
11. 12.
51
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
JICA Project Team Member
Assignment Name
13. GIS and Mapping Akihiro FURUTA
14. Project Coordinator / Assistant for Regional Disaster Management Planning
Yasuhiro KAWASOE
15.Damage Survey Abilash POKHREL
16. Urban Design and Planning Junya UMEMURA
17. Building Construction Supervision Yujiro IMAZAWA
18. Seismic Resistant Building Yukio HONDA
19. Assistant for Seismic Resistant Building
Masahiro WATANABE
Model Housing Team
13. 14.
15. 16.
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
JCC
JICA Project Team Counterparts
Project Team
Technology Transfer
Joint Coordinating Committee (JCC)
MoUD, MoHA, MoFALD JICA
GOJ GON
52
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
The Joint Coordinating Committee (JCC) will be established in order to
facilitate inter-organizational coordination.
JCC will be held whenever deems it necessary.
1) Chair Secretary MoUD 2) Member Secretary: Joint Secretary (JS), Housing and Building Division , MoUD 3) Members • Development Commissioner, Kathmandu Valley Development
Authority(KDVA) • JS, Office of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers • JS, Disaster Management Division, MoHA • JS, Ministry of Finance • JS, Municipality Management Division, MoFALD • JS. Ministry of Physical Infrastructure and Transport • JS, NPC secretariat • JS, Ministry of Health and Population • JS, Ministry of Education
53
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
3) Members(Continued) • DG, Department of Urban Development & Building Construction (DUDBC) • DG, Department of Mines and Geology • Dean, Institute of Engineering • President, FNCCI • NRRC coordinator • Representative, JICA
54
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
WG1
Geological, Seismic Group
Output: Result of Earthquake hazard analysis WG2
Risk Assessment Group
Output: Result of Earthquake Risk Assessment
WG3 Policy and Institutional Group
Output: Proposal Policy and System WG4
Pilot Activities Group
Output: Regional Disaster Management Plan
Utilize the result
Utilize the result
Utilize the result
Adapt the Policy
Feedback
JCC
Working Group
Expert in Japan
Capacity Development
55
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
Working Group 1: Geological, Seismic Group
Seismic Hazard Assessment(Earthquake)
• Seismic Hazard Assessment (Ground modeling) • Seismic Hazard Assessment (Ground motion) • GIS and Mapping
DG, Department of Mines and Geology
• Prof. Geology/Seismology, IoST • Prof. Earthquake engineering. IoE • US, Disaster Management Section,
MoUD • US, Building Code Section, DUDBC • President, Nepal Structural
Engineering Society
Nepal Side JICA Project Team
Team Leader
Member Chief, National Seismology Center
Chair
Member
Member Secretary
56
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
Working Group 2: Risk Assessment Group
Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment / DRR Planning
• Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment (Building)
• Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment (Infrastructure)
• Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment (Economic and Social Analysis)
• GIS and Mapping
JS, Housing and Building Division, MoUD
• DDG, Building Construction Division, DUDBC • DDG, DoR • Division Chief, School Building Construction Division,
Department of Education • US, Ministry of Health and Population • ED, KVWSMB • Chair person, Nepal Telecommunication Authority • ED, Nepal Electricity Authority • Deputy Development Commissioner, KVDA • Project Chiefs, Kathmandu Valley Level Projects
Nepal Side JICA Project Team Team Leader
Member US, Disaster Management Section,
MoUD
Chair
Member
Member Secretary
57
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
Working Group 3: Policy and Institutional Group
Team Leader / Disaster Management Administration
• Regional Disaster Management Planning
• Community/Social Analysis • Community Based Disaster Risk
Management • Project Coordinator / Assistant for
Regional Disaster Management Planning
JS, Disaster Management Division, MoHA
• JS, Hosuing and Building Division, MoUD • Development Commissioner, KVDA • JS, Municipal Management Division,
MoFALD • JS, NPC Secretariat • DG, DUDBC • Coordinator, Flagship 5, NRRC
Nepal Side JICA Project Team
Team Leader
Member US, Disaster Management Division,
MoHA
Chair
Member
Member Secretary
Original Plan
58
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
Working Group 4 Working Group 4: Pilot Activities Group
• Team Leader /Disaster Management Administration
• Regional Disaster Management Planning
• Community/Social Analysis • Community Based Disaster Risk
Management • Project Coordinator / Assistant for
Regional Disaster Management Planning
JS, Municipal Management Division, MoFALD
• JS, Housing and Building Division, MoUD • Development Commissioner, KVDA
• JS, Disaster Management Dividion • JS, NPC Secretariat • DG, DUDBC • Coordinator, Flagship 5, NRRC • Municipality staff of Pilot Project
Nepal Side JICA Project Team
Team Leader
Member
US, Disaster Management Section, MoFALD
Chair
Member
Member Secretary
Original Plan
59
60
• Team Leader /Disaster Management Administration
• Regional Disaster Management Planning
• Community/Social Analysis• Community Disaster Preparation• Project Coordinator / Assistant for
Regional Disaster Management Planning
• Capacity Development
JS, Municipal Management Division, MoFALD
• JS, Housing and Building Division, MoUD
• JS, Disaster Management Dividion• JS, NPC Secretariat• DG, DUDBC• Development Commissioner, KVDA• Coordinator, Flagship 5, NRRC• Municipality staff of Pilot Project
Nepal SideJICA Project Team
Team Leader
Member
US, Disaster Management Section, MoFALD
Chair
Member
Member Secretary
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
Working Group 4: Pilot Activities Group
Team Leader /Disaster Management Administration
• Regional Disaster Management Planning
• Community/Social Analysis• Community Disaster Preparation• Project Coordinator / Assistant for
Regional Disaster Management Planning
• Capacity Development
JS, Disaster Management Division, MoHA
• JS, Hosuing and Building Division, MoUD• JS, Municipal Management Division,
MoFALD• JS, NPC Secretariat• DG, DUDBC• Development Commissioner, KVDA• Coordinator, Flagship 5, NRRC
Nepal SideJICA Project Team
Team Leader
MemberUS, Disaster Management Division,
MoHA
Chair
Member
Member Secretary
Working Group 3:Policy and Institutional Group
• Team Leader /Disaster Management Administration
• Regional Disaster Management Planning
• Community/Social Analysis • Community Based Disaster Risk
Management • Project Coordinator / Assistant for
Regional Disaster Management Planning
JS, Municipal Management
Division, MoFALD
• JS, Housing and Building Division, MoUD • JS, NPC Secretariat • DG, DUDBC • Development Commissioner, KVDA • Coordinator, Flagship 5, NRRC • Municipality staff of Pilot Project
Nepal Side JICA Project Team Team Leader
Member US, Disaster
Management Section, MoFALD
Working Group 3: Pilot Activities Group
JS, Disaster Management
Division, MoHA
Integration
BBB Reconstruction Plan & DM Plan
SOP
US, Disaster Management
Division, MoHA
Chair
Member
Member Secretary
Our Proposal
5. Project Organization and your Involvement
Working Group Schedule
Time Schedule
Activities
2015 2016 2017 2018
(Phae I) (Phase II)
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
JCC
WG1 (Geological and seismic group)
WG2 (Risk assessment group)
WG3 (Pilot activities group)
61
6. Outcome of the Project
62
6. Outcome of the Project
BBB Recovery and Reconstruction Plan for Pilot 3 Municipalities 1.
Future Seismic Risk Assessment with newly determined Scenarios for KV 2.
Disaster Management Plan Guideline 3.
DM Plan for Pilot 3 Municipalities 4.
Standard Operation Procedures for 3 Pilot Municipalities 5.
63
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