analisis proy
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UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL JORGE BASADRE GROHMANN
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL JORGE BASADRE GROHMANNESCUELA ACADEMICO PROFESIONAL INGENIERIA COMERCIALFORMULACION Y PREPARACION DE PROYECTOS I
CASO PRCTICOESCUELA ACADEMICO PROFESIONAL INGENIERIA COMERCIALINTEGRANTES:
EJERCICIODATOS: INFLACION5% Crecimiento A7% Crecimiento B5% Costo Fijo16%de las ventas Gast. Financiero4%de las ventas Impuesto30% Inversin 20,000.00 PLAN DE VENTAS:
PRODUCTO012345
A2000.002140.002289.802450.092621.59
B5000.005250.005512.505788.136077.53
PRECIOS:
PRODUCTO012345
A1010.5011.0311.5812.1612.76
B2021.0022.0523.1524.3125.53
MODELO:VALORACION DE VENTAS
PRODUCTO012345
A 21,000.00 23,593.50 26,507.30 29,780.95 33,458.90
B 105,000.00 115,762.50 127,628.16 140,710.04 155,132.82
TOTAL: 126,000.00 139,356.00 154,135.45 170,490.99 188,591.72
EVALUACION DE PLAN DE VENTAS:
VANS/. 563,548.19
TASA11%
PROYECCIONES DE COSTOS UNITARIOS
PRODUCTO012345
A66.306.626.957.297.66
B1212.6013.2313.8914.5915.32
PRESUPUESTO DE COSTO DE PRODUCCION:
PRODUCTO012345
A12,600.0014,156.1015,904.3817,868.5720,075.34
B63,000.0069,457.5076,576.8984,426.0393,079.69
TOTAL:75,600.0083,613.6092,481.27102,294.59113,155.03
PRESUPUESTO DE COSTOS FIJOS:
DETALLE012345
COSTOS FIJOS20,160.0022,296.9624,661.6727,278.5630,174.67
PRESUPUESTO DE GASTOS FINANCIEROS:
DETALLE012345
GASTOS FINANCIEROS:5,040.005,574.246,165.426,819.647,543.67
MODELO DE FLUJO DE CAJA:
RUBRO CONTABLE012345
VENTAS126,000.00139,356.00154,135.45170,490.99188,591.72
(-) COSTO DE VENTAS75,600.0083,613.6092,481.27102,294.59113,155.03
UTILIDAD BRUTA50,400.0055,742.4061,654.1868,196.4075,436.69
(-) COSTOS FIJOS20,160.0022,296.9624,661.6727,278.5630,174.67
UTILIDAD OPERATIVA30,240.0033,445.4436,992.5140,917.8445,262.01
(-) GASTOS FINANCIEROS5,040.005,574.246,165.426,819.647,543.67
UTILIDAD ANTES DE IMP25,200.0027,871.2030,827.0934,098.2037,718.34
(-) IMP. RENTA7,560.008,361.369,248.1310,229.4611,315.50
UTILIDAD NETA17,640.0019,509.8421,578.9623,868.7426,402.84
(+) DEPRECIACION
(-) INVERSION 20,000.00
FLUJO DE CAJA-20,000.0017,640.0019,509.8421,578.9623,868.7426,402.84
VAN 58,896.75
Tasa11%
ESCENARIOS:
VARIACION:10%
CANTIDADES VENDIDAS
PESIMISTA1,800.001,926.002,060.822,205.082,359.43
PROB2000.002140.002289.802450.092621.59
OPTIMISTA220023542518.782695.09462883.75122
PES4,500.004,725.004,961.255,209.315,469.78
PROB5000.005250.005512.505788.136077.53
OPT550057756063.756366.93756685.28438
PRECIOS:12345
PES9.459.9210.4210.9411.49
PROB10.5011.0311.5812.1612.76
OPT11.5512.1312.7313.3714.04
PES18.9019.8520.8421.8822.97
PROB21.0022.0523.1524.3125.53
OPT23.1024.2625.4726.7428.08
Informe @RISK Salida para VAN.PROYECTO
Informacin de resumen de simulacin
Nombre de libro de trabajoANALISIS PROY.xlsx
Nmero de simulaciones1
Nmero de iteraciones100
Nmero de entradas20
Nmero de salidas1
Tipo de muestreoLatino Hipercbico
Tiempo de inicio de simulacin20/05/2015 17:29
Duracin de simulacin00:00:05
Generador de # aleatorioMersenne Twister
Semilla aleatoria588139935
Estadsticos resumen para VAN.PROYECTO
EstadsticosPercentil
MnimoS/. 492,053.035%S/. 522,783.25
MximoS/. 658,968.6910%S/. 527,957.88
MediaS/. 563,325.8515%S/. 533,280.36
Desv EstS/. 30,142.6120%S/. 537,336.68
Varianza908576922.425%S/. 540,292.55
Indice de sesgo0.42034175530%S/. 542,197.36
Curtosis3.09230098335%S/. 546,839.83
MedianaS/. 558,934.5640%S/. 551,441.81
ModaS/. 541,953.9045%S/. 554,660.58
X izquierdaS/. 522,783.2550%S/. 558,934.56
P izquierda5%55%S/. 564,270.63
X derechaS/. 616,793.4460%S/. 566,532.31
P derecha95%65%S/. 574,348.04
Diff XS/. 94,010.1870%S/. 578,186.42
Diff P90%75%S/. 581,613.01
#Errores080%S/. 592,241.77
Filtro mnApagado85%S/. 595,071.43
Filtro mxApagado90%S/. 601,964.96
#Filtrado095%S/. 616,793.44
Cambio en la estadstica de salida de VAN.PROYECTO
JerarquaNombreInferiorSuperior
1PvPB5S/. 540,579.04S/. 596,841.91
2PvPB4S/. 543,773.07S/. 598,546.30
3PvPB2S/. 536,187.65S/. 588,170.42
4QvPB4S/. 539,463.98S/. 589,897.36
5QvPB1S/. 534,442.67S/. 581,067.50
6PvPA3S/. 547,038.68S/. 589,893.93
7QvPB5S/. 537,871.16S/. 579,487.09
8PvPA4S/. 545,168.58S/. 585,620.12
9QvPB3S/. 543,083.63S/. 581,732.51
10QvPA4S/. 546,271.51S/. 584,763.27
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